2022 Mock drafts

[86WARD]

They haven’t needed to. But, the fifth-year option makes it ideal (when drafting a QB).

Agree with that.

[Mojouw]

They haven’t needed to. But, the fifth-year option makes it ideal (when drafting a QB).

Does it? I think Allen and Mahomes were both signed to mega extensions prior to their option year. Wilson was. I believe Watson was. Murray likely will be. Same with Herbert.

It seems to matter for the Baker Mayfield’s of the world where no one really wants to commit to a long term extension.

Outside of that, it can help a team restrict the cash flow for the first year of the new deal (typically signed around year 4) but teams can do that with regular deals anyways due to bonus structures.

I think that if your QB is playing on his option year, you didn’t draft a good one.

[teegre]

Does it? I think Allen and Mahomes were both signed to mega extensions prior to their option year. Wilson was. I believe Watson was. Murray likely will be. Same with Herbert.

It seems to matter for the Baker Mayfield’s of the world where no one really wants to commit to a long term extension.

Outside of that, it can help a team restrict the cash flow for the first year of the new deal (typically signed around year 4) but teams can do that with regular deals anyways due to bonus structures.

I think that if your QB is playing on his option year, you didn’t draft a good one.

True… that said…

Four-year deal, extension in year 3.

Five-year deal, extension in year 4.

[Mojouw]

True… that said…

Four-year deal, extension in year 3.

Five-year deal, extension in year 4.

I don't think it changes anything. Look at Josh Allen's deal. Took place in Year3 /4 of his rookie deal. Best I can tell is that they kept the cap hits for the 2022 and 2023 what they would have been on his rookie deal and then just added years -- https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills...a56a61620.html

I'm sure the ins and outs are more complicated but looking at the cap hits...that is basically how it works out. He is expensive in Year 6 of his career...when he always would have been.

Mahomes is a bit different -- https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-c...mahomes-21751/ -- but appears to be the same end result. Mahomes only cost real cap space in Year 6 of his career.

Dudes who are actually playing out the 5th year options are the Mayfield, Lock, Jones tier of QBs. And if your team is mucking about there....you don't have a QB anyways so what does it matter?

I am increasingly convinced that the 5th year option doesn't really matter for QB. It is likely highly important for positions where you expect most players to not even play 5 good years...like RB.

[86WARD]

None of these QBs are Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert. They’ll be lucky if one turns out to be a guy you want on the fifth year option or to extend…

[Mojouw]

None of these QBs are Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert. They’ll be lucky if one turns out to be a guy you want on the fifth year option or to extend…

Sure. Which is why the fifth year option does not matter at all. If the scouting projections by the NFL pundit class are correct, 2-3 years after you draft any of these dirtballs, you are pressing the big 'ol reset button anyways and doing the QB thing again.

If, you are fortunate enough and your internal team scouts are correct and one of these guys is a badass QB...you aren't letting him get to the fifth year option, so who cares?

The fifth year option is basically just an excuse to circle the QB drain for another year so that your HC and GM can convince ownership not to fire them.

[Dwinsgames]

I stand by my evaluations ... I would not hesitate to take Howell at 20

[Born2Steel]

Are we thinking to draft or not to draft a QB in the 1st round?

OR go with a blue chip defensive game changer to help make this defense elite while building a functioning offense?

How much better is this OL now?

[86WARD]

Are we thinking to draft or not to draft a QB in the 1st round?

OR go with a blue chip defensive game changer to help make this defense elite while building a functioning offense?

How much better is this OL now?

I’m sticking with no QB.

[Dwinsgames]

I think they draft a signal caller in rd 1 ... the question is will it be at 20 ...................

meaning depending on how the draft unfolds they could move up a few spots or back a few spots ....

I also think its is Howell , Ridder or Corral ......... in that order of chances ... but until it happens nobody knows how it will unfold

[86WARD]

If they move up it’s for Willis. If they move back it’s for Ridder. If they stay it’s Howell. If they take a QB at or around 20…

[Mojouw]

If they move up it’s for Willis. If they move back it’s for Ridder. If they stay it’s Howell. If they take a QB at or around 20…

Ridder seems to be climbing. Howell is falling. Or at least that’s the “buzz”.

I’m honestly now at either trade up for Willis or take Howell or Strong in the 2nd.

But the smartest move might be to trade out of the first for someone’s 2023 first rounder and play the QB game next year.

[86WARD]

But the smartest move might be to trade out of the first for someone’s 2023 first rounder and play the QB game next year.

I’d be much, much happier if that were the case. I’m pretty certain that Willis is their #1 guy in their board this year.

[teegre]

I don't think it changes anything. Look at Josh Allen's deal. Took place in Year3 /4 of his rookie deal. Best I can tell is that they kept the cap hits for the 2022 and 2023 what they would have been on his rookie deal and then just added years -- https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills...a56a61620.html

I'm sure the ins and outs are more complicated but looking at the cap hits...that is basically how it works out. He is expensive in Year 6 of his career...when he always would have been.

Mahomes is a bit different -- https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-c...mahomes-21751/ -- but appears to be the same end result. Mahomes only cost real cap space in Year 6 of his career.

Dudes who are actually playing out the 5th year options are the Mayfield, Lock, Jones tier of QBs. And if your team is mucking about there....you don't have a QB anyways so what does it matter?

I am increasingly convinced that the 5th year option doesn't really matter for QB. It is likely highly important for positions where you expect most players to not even play 5 good years...like RB.

The fifth-year is a bargaining chip.

“You’re only scheduled to make X in 2026 and also 2027. This new deal pays you twice that much for those seasons…”

“I want $40 million per year.”

“Well, you can either sit play for this deal, or, you can sit out for the next two years… which didn’t work out so well for Bell.”

“How about $25 million for those two years… which is a little more than the franchise tag… and then, it goes up to $40 million?”

“That seems fair.”

[Born2Steel]

I know nobody else sees the potential but from just what I watched I like Coan if waiting till the 2nd/3rd round to take a QB. Good size, arm, and mobility. I think he pairs well with Matt Canada.

[Mojouw]

The fifth-year is a bargaining chip.

“You’re only scheduled to make X in 2026 and also 2027. This new deal pays you twice that much for those seasons…”

“I want $40 million per year.”

“Well, you can either sit play for this deal, or, you can sit out for the next two years… which didn’t work out so well for Bell.”

“How about $25 million for those two years… which is a little more than the franchise tag… and then, it goes up to $40 million?”
I guess? Looks like Allen's deal just paid exactly what his rookie deal would have for 5 years and then he got paid. Same(ish) with Mahomes and others.

“That seems fair.”

Maybe it plays out that way...but it doesn't seem to make a big impact in these big $$$ QB extensions. For most the big extension buys out the rookie years or tacks on at the end with little to no cap increase on the rookie deal #'s. So that is the starting point for QB contracts. The option year is maybe a vague bargaining chip but the franchise tag can function the same way. The current 5th year option for QBs is between $20-30 million based on performance criteria. The franchise tag is roughly $30 million. The same as the fifth year option if the QB makes 2 Pro Bowls.

2 Pro Bowls is the exact number that Mahomes, Wilson, Dak, and Watson made in their first 3 years. Allen made 1. Lamar Jackson made 2 in 4. Herbert made 1 in his first two and is on track for a 2nd. That means almost all of the recent big money extensions would have had their option year calculated out at as equal to the franchise tag. Long story short, if you "hit" on a QB...the option year and the franchise tag are the exact same. So the team retains the same leverage. I guess they "lose" a year by not being able to do option+franchise+franchise and instead have to do a "double" franchise which is more expensive the second tag year...but still....

For me, it doesn't seem to matter enough to trade back into the first round to get a guy just to get the option year.

[Dwinsgames]

that 5th year is starting to mean less and less , look at Kyler , he is already threatening a hold out and he still has 2 years left on rookie deal

[DesertSteel]

If they intend on drafting Ridder, Howell or Corral, I predict they move back to 25-27 and pick up an extra 2nd.

[teegre]

Maybe it plays out that way...but it doesn't seem to make a big impact in these big $$$ QB extensions. For most the big extension buys out the rookie years or tacks on at the end with little to no cap increase on the rookie deal #'s. So that is the starting point for QB contracts. The option year is maybe a vague bargaining chip but the franchise tag can function the same way. The current 5th year option for QBs is between $20-30 million based on performance criteria. The franchise tag is roughly $30 million. The same as the fifth year option if the QB makes 2 Pro Bowls.

2 Pro Bowls is the exact number that Mahomes, Wilson, Dak, and Watson made in their first 3 years. Allen made 1. Lamar Jackson made 2 in 4. Herbert made 1 in his first two and is on track for a 2nd. That means almost all of the recent big money extensions would have had their option year calculated out at as equal to the franchise tag. Long story short, if you "hit" on a QB...the option year and the franchise tag are the exact same. So the team retains the same leverage. I guess they "lose" a year by not being able to do option+franchise+franchise and instead have to do a "double" franchise which is more expensive the second tag year...but still....

For me, it doesn't seem to matter enough to trade back into the first round to get a guy just to get the option year.

Indeed. For the Mahomeses and Allens, the fifth year does NOT matter. Heck, the fourth year doesn’t really matter.

For the Carrs, Daltons, and other second-tier QBs of that ilk, it’s definitely a bargaining chip and/or an extra year to see what you have.

And, the 2022 crop more closely resembles that second group.

QUESTION: Aren’t the Ravens using that fifth-year option as a bargaining chip with Lamar?

[Mojouw]

Indeed. For the Mahomeses and Allens, the fifth year does NOT matter. Heck, the fourth year doesn’t really matter.

For the Carrs, Daltons, and other second-tier QBs of that ilk, it’s definitely a bargaining chip and/or an extra year to see what you have.

And, the 2022 crop more closely resembles that second group.

QUESTION: Aren’t the Ravens using that fifth-year option as a bargaining chip with Lamar?

Carr and Jackson made 2 Pro Bowls in their first few years. Making their 5th year option = franchise tag. I think same for Dalton. But can’t remember when you have to exercise the option.

Ravens can use the option, but it’s the same as the franchise tag. So they’d be in the exact same spot if Lamar was the first pick of the second round.

Unless I’m missing someone (and Lamar is odd because he’s negotiating his own deal), only bad QBs play on the option. The rest are extended in year 3 or 4 when they’ve already pushed their option up to equal the franchise tag level by performance.

Long story short, I think for QBs the fifth year option is a big talking point by NFL pundits and it basically doesn’t do anything in the actual NFL. Either the player is so good that they’re at franchise tag level therefore obviating the option year or they sorta stink and they get Bakered.

For non-QB positions it totally can matter. But, while I should really look into it more, it SEEMS that it just doesn’t matter for QBs.

[teegre]

Carr and Jackson made 2 Pro Bowls in their first few years. Making their 5th year option = franchise tag. I think same for Dalton. But can’t remember when you have to exercise the option.

Ravens can use the option, but it’s the same as the franchise tag. So they’d be in the exact same spot if Lamar was the first pick of the second round.

Unless I’m missing someone (and Lamar is odd because he’s negotiating his own deal), only bad QBs play on the option. The rest are extended in year 3 or 4 when they’ve already pushed their option up to equal the franchise tag level by performance.

Long story short, I think for QBs the fifth year option is a big talking point by NFL pundits and it basically doesn’t do anything in the actual NFL. Either the player is so good that they’re at franchise tag level therefore obviating the option year or they sorta stink and they get Bakered.

For non-QB positions it totally can matter. But, while I should really look into it more, it SEEMS that it just doesn’t matter for QBs.

Why not give first-round QBs
three-year deals? … if the years beyond three “really” have no weight in bargaining.

[Mojouw]

Why not give first-round QBs
three-year deals? … if the years beyond three “really” have no weight in bargaining.

I dunno. I didn’t write the CBA. Don’t shoot the messenger here.

Look up the first round QB of your choice. Then count Pro Bowls. If you get to 2 before the option, the CBA elevates it to the franchise tag level. For almost every QB a team would want to sign to a big market rocking deal, that happens. So there’s your team friendly leverage right out the window.

Dak and Wilson got signed to a similar contract of first round QBs on a similar schedule. No fifth round option option.

I can’t find a QB where they don’t kinda suck and they have the fifth year option matter. Lamar Jackson maybe and that’s almost certainly because he’s his own agent.

Where’s the QB that the fifth round option did something the franchise tag couldn’t?

[teegre]

If they intend on drafting Ridder, Howell or Corral, I predict they move back to 25-27 and pick up an extra 2nd.

I agree that 27-35 is where those three QBs end up.

OPTION 1:
-draft a stud defender at 20
-trade up from 52 to acquire the QB

OPTION 2:
-trade back from 20 to aquire the QB
-draft two “lesser” defenders in R2

[teegre]

I dunno. I didn’t write the CBA. Don’t shoot the messenger here.

Look up the first round QB of your choice. Then count Pro Bowls. If you get to 2 before the option, the CBA elevates it to the franchise tag level. For almost every QB a team would want to sign to a big market rocking deal, that happens. So there’s your team friendly leverage right out the window.

Dak and Wilson got signed to a similar contract of first round QBs on a similar schedule. No fifth round option option.

I can’t find a QB where they don’t kinda suck and they have the fifth year option matter. Lamar Jackson maybe and that’s almost certainly because he’s his own agent.

Where’s the QB that the fifth round option did something the franchise tag couldn’t?

Okay. Let’s assume the fifth year isn’t involved in bargaining (although it must mean something if it’s part of the CBA to negate the fifth year with two Pro Bowls). Instead, let’s look at those two Pro Bowls needed to negate the fifth year…

With the AFC having Allen, Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, and I’ll even throw in Lawrence, Watson, and Carr, what are the odds that one of the 2022 QBs gets two Pro Bowls ahead of one of these 6-9 guys?

[Mojouw]

Okay. Let’s assume the fifth year isn’t involved in bargaining (although it must mean something if it’s part of the CBA to negate the fifth year with two Pro Bowls). Instead, let’s look at those two Pro Bowls needed to negate the fifth year…

With the AFC having Allen, Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, and I’ll even throw in Lawrence, Watson, and Carr, what are the odds that one of the 2022 QBs gets two Pro Bowls ahead of one of these 6-9 guys?

About the same when those dudes that all made Pro Bowls like Carr and Dalton were behind Brady, Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and whoever else I’m forgetting.

Rookie and second year hotness gets fan voted over old guys.

There’s a Chris Rock NSFW routine in there….

[Dwinsgames]

Okay. Let’s assume the fifth year isn’t involved in bargaining (although it must mean something if it’s part of the CBA to negate the fifth year with two Pro Bowls). Instead, let’s look at those two Pro Bowls needed to negate the fifth year…

With the AFC having Allen, Mahomes, Wilson, Herbert, Burrow, Jackson, and I’ll even throw in Lawrence, Watson, and Carr, what are the odds that one of the 2022 QBs gets two Pro Bowls ahead of one of these 6-9 guys?

here is the thing , for me anyways ... there is no worse time to be a rookie QB in the AFC if looking to make a pro bowl or all pro in the first 2-3 years of your career ... the afc is STACKED at QB and some extremely talented QBs will not get all pro or pro bowl invites ... just to many

[86WARD]

I dunno. I didn’t write the CBA. Don’t shoot the messenger here.

Look up the first round QB of your choice. Then count Pro Bowls. If you get to 2 before the option, the CBA elevates it to the franchise tag level. For almost every QB a team would want to sign to a big market rocking deal, that happens. So there’s your team friendly leverage right out the window.

Dak and Wilson got signed to a similar contract of first round QBs on a similar schedule. No fifth round option option.

I can’t find a QB where they don’t kinda suck and they have the fifth year option matter. Lamar Jackson maybe and that’s almost certainly because he’s his own agent.

Where’s the QB that the fifth round option did something the franchise tag couldn’t?

Cam Newton was a 5th year option...I believe. I believe the panthers used it on him and then maybe came to an extension?

[Mojouw]

Cam Newton was a 5th year option...I believe. I believe the panthers used it on him and then maybe came to an extension?

Ok. But if his 5th year option was equal to the franchise tag…it meant team still had immense leverage.

The 5th year option is never a bad thing to have. But it’s also usually not different than the franchise tag. Therefore, I wouldn’t trade BACK INTO the first round just to get a guy with the option. Only go back into the first if you think the guy won’t be there in round 2.

[teegre]

Ok. But if his 5th year option was equal to the franchise tag…it meant team still had immense leverage.

The 5th year option is never a bad thing to have. But it’s also usually not different than the franchise tag. Therefore, I wouldn’t trade BACK INTO the first round just to get a guy with the option. Only go back into the first if you think the guy won’t be there in round 2.

Here’s a point to consider: the top five picks on Day 2 are highly coveted… because, teams go home, reassess their draft boards, and realize Player X slipped into R2. POW!!! suddenly the teams at the top of R2 are fielding many trade offers. Ergo, sometimes it’s easier to trade to 30 than it is to trade to 33.

As far as Chris Rock goes… you got young & hot, or, you got old & not.

[Mojouw]

Here’s a point to consider: the top five picks on Day 2 are highly coveted… because, teams go home, reassess their draft boards, and realize Player X slipped into R2. POW!!! suddenly the teams at the top of R2 are fielding many trade offers. Ergo, sometimes it’s easier to trade to 30 than it is to trade to 33.

As far as Chris Rock goes… you got young & hot, or, you got old & not.

That’s true. Day 2 top 5 can be a Wild West scenario as everyone scrambles for falling stars.

Young & hot can’t cook! Doesn’t read to your kids…