Accuracy The Most Important Trait A QB Can Have, Says Colbert

[Orion]

can someone refresh my memory about the BIG knock on josh allen coming out of college.
even the article from the OP points out how subjective completion % is. the only way to actually judge it is to actually see the passes themselves. accuracy issues can often be fixed. see josh allen.

[Dwinsgames]

I think players should just be drafted by using the Street & Smith Draft Guide magazine. Watching film, interviews, workouts, etc. are all just wasted time.

The Drugstore list was a fantastic publication ...

wish I had all those old issues they are probably worth good money now

[Born2Steel]

can someone refresh my memory about the BIG knock on josh allen coming out of college.
even the article from the OP points out how subjective completion % is. the only way to actually judge it is to actually see the passes themselves. accuracy issues can often be fixed. see josh allen.

Obviously college completion% is not the whole story. I think what Colbert is saying though, is that completion% is the best tool we have currently to measure QB prospects over a wide scope. Just me now, I think you take those 'stats' and follow up further with film study and all the more formal scouting tactics used. Colbert also said mobility is important. I don't think anyone will give much pushback to 'accuracy and mobility' are 2 of the 3 most important measurements of a QB prospect.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Obviously college completion% is not the whole story. I think what Colbert is saying though, is that completion% is the best tool we have currently to measure QB prospects over a wide scope. Just me now, I think you take those 'stats' and follow up further with film study and all the more formal scouting tactics used. Colbert also said mobility is important. I don't think anyone will give much pushback to 'accuracy and mobility' are 2 of the 3 most important measurements of a QB prospect.

Where in the article does Colbert reference Completion Percentage?

All I saw is that he said " If you study Quarterbacks over history, accuracy at the college level is usually a great indicator of accuracy at the professional level, albeit at in a different game".

I think some fans that dont know how to study quarterbacks accuracy by watching the game, just look at a completion percentage and believe that is the measure of accuracy. What I think Colbert is referring to is that NFL scouts, Coaches and GM's that study these prospects can see if a guy is accurate and if he is inconsistent by scouting him and not just looking at the completion percentage.

[Mojouw]

Where in the article does Colbert reference Completion Percentage?

All I saw is that he said " If you study Quarterbacks over history, accuracy at the college level is usually a great indicator of accuracy at the professional level, albeit at in a different game".

I think some fans that dont know how to study quarterbacks accuracy by watching the game, just look at a completion percentage and believe that is the measure of accuracy. What I think Colbert is referring to is that NFL scouts, Coaches and GM's that study these prospects can see if a guy is accurate and if he is inconsistent by scouting him and not just looking at the completion percentage.

Whose arguing against that?

Almost certainly a difference between full time talent evaluators and fans trying to have a somewhat informed discussion in our free time.

[Born2Steel]

"Accuracy is the most important trait a QB can have"......who knew this would become so controversial?

[Born2Steel]

Whose arguing against that?

Almost certainly a difference between full time talent evaluators and fans trying to have a somewhat informed discussion in our free time.

EVERYBODY...everybody knows there is no one way to evaluate things. Is completion% part of the evaluation? Of course it is. Is completion% the entire evaluation? Of course it's not. I don't even study these things but I have seen diagrams of a football field with sections marked off to show different areas of the field and numbers within each to show pass attempts and completions to each area. This would be a further breaking down of completion%. Again, being used to evaluate. Maybe this evaluation is part arm strength, field vision, progressions/pre-snap reads, throwing to open areas for your guy to go get, etc...but mostly it's accuracy. I'm sure there is even further breakdowns beyond this. Throws on the run, under pressure from defenders, clutch moments in games, and others.

It feels like sometimes you can post on here 'a hammer is best for driving a nail', and somebody will post 'screws are better than nails which makes your hammer useless'. Really just nonsense.

[Mojouw]

EVERYBODY...everybody knows there is no one way to evaluate things. Is completion% part of the evaluation? Of course it is. Is completion% the entire evaluation? Of course it's not. I don't even study these things but I have seen diagrams of a football field with sections marked off to show different areas of the field and numbers within each to show pass attempts and completions to each area. This would be a further breaking down of completion%. Again, being used to evaluate. Maybe this evaluation is part arm strength, field vision, progressions/pre-snap reads, throwing to open areas for your guy to go get, etc...but mostly it's accuracy. I'm sure there is even further breakdowns beyond this. Throws on the run, under pressure from defenders, clutch moments in games, and others.

It feels like sometimes you can post on here 'a hammer is best for driving a nail', and somebody will post 'screws are better than nails which makes your hammer useless'. Really just nonsense.

All true.

I’m certainly guilty of it.

Someone raised Josh Allen earlier. Combine that with your above post and it would seem one would have the framework for an approach to evaluation.

Hey, this kids completion % is pretty low. But, wowzers, his play just jumps off the screen. Let’s dig into it and see if there’s an explanation or a mechanical issue our coaches believe is correctable.

[teegre]

HAMMERS SUCK!!!

[Born2Steel]

All true.

I’m certainly guilty of it.

Someone raised Josh Allen earlier. Combine that with your above post and it would seem one would have the framework for an approach to evaluation.

Hey, this kids completion % is pretty low. But, wowzers, his play just jumps off the screen. Let’s dig into it and see if there’s an explanation or a mechanical issue our coaches believe is correctable.

I think the biggest knock against Josh Allen was that he played at Wyoming. Honestly now that Ben has retired, Josh Allen may be my personal favorite NFL QB.

A prospect like Jack Coan from Wisc/ND has everything you want in a QB from the neck up. His biggest flaw seems to be arm strength, which isn't terrible, just not NFL level at all. This also leads to some accuracy issues, especially on downfield throws and off script throws. How much can those 'flaws' improve if Coan sat behind a QB like maybe Josh Allen, who also had to learn how to be a pro QB on the fly? I don't know the answer but I'm intrigued. I think with the right coaches and situation Coan could become what Drew Lock and Josh Rosen were supposed to be.

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HAMMERS SUCK!!!

[Mojouw]

I think the biggest knock against Josh Allen was that he played at Wyoming. Honestly now that Ben has retired, Josh Allen may be my personal favorite NFL QB.

A prospect like Jack Coan from Wisc/ND has everything you want in a QB from the neck up. His biggest flaw seems to be arm strength, which isn't terrible, just not NFL level at all. This also leads to some accuracy issues, especially on downfield throws and off script throws. How much can those 'flaws' improve if Coan sat behind a QB like maybe Josh Allen, who also had to learn how to be a pro QB on the fly? I don't know the answer but I'm intrigued. I think with the right coaches and situation Coan could become what Drew Lock and Josh Rosen were supposed to be.

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My problem with Coan is I’ve seen him disintegrate under pressure and when the play breaks down too many times. Maybe his past season at ND he looked different? But I don’t think the ability to improvise is a learnable skill.

Josh Allen had the arm and the improvise stuff. The Bills taught him the rest.

Now, can Coan be the reverse? Mechanical sound but gets taught to work outside structure?

[Steeler-in-west]

So is "completion percentage" really a true indicator of "accuracy"?

should break completion % by distance ball travels: 0-5, 5-10, 10+, and give a completion percentage for each, something like that

[86WARD]

Yeah. It is likely that Parcells never said it or never wrote it all out BUT people attribute it to him because it sounds like him and he was a highly regarded coach and talent evaluator.

Although...I honestly don't remember, but was he any good at QBs? I don't seem to remember that being his thing...

Johnson has always been the draft chart guy. Parcells is the one who has the 7 criteria for drafting a QB. If the QB meets all 7 criteria, then he’s worthy of drafting.

Keep in mind:

Here is how the QB's fit the 7 criteria that Parcells has laid out:

Final Tally

7/7 – Mayfield, Rudolph
4/7 – Jackson
3/7 – Allen, Rosen
2/7 – Darnold

The results seem to indicate that Mayfield's hype is justified, perhaps Rudolph & Jackson are underrated, and Darnold might be overrated.

In case you are not familiar with Parcells’ criteria for drafting a quarterback, the following seven boxes had to be checked in order for a passer to be an option:

—Be a three-year starter
—Be a senior in college
—Graduate from college
—Start 30 games
—Win 23 games
—Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
—Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...parcells-rules

FINAL TALLY

7/7: Pickett, Ridder
6/7: Strong
5/7: Howell, Willis
3/7: Corral
After none of the top quarterback prospects in last year’s draft met Parcells’ criteria despite five being selected in the first round, Pickett and Ridder checked all the boxes in the year’s class. In 2020, both Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts met all seven criteria.

[Mojouw]

Johnson has always been the draft chart guy. Parcells is the one who has the 7 criteria for drafting a QB. If the QB meets all 7 criteria, then he’s worthy of drafting.

Keep in mind:



In case you are not familiar with Parcells’ criteria for drafting a quarterback, the following seven boxes had to be checked in order for a passer to be an option:

—Be a three-year starter
—Be a senior in college
—Graduate from college
—Start 30 games
—Win 23 games
—Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
—Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...parcells-rules

FINAL TALLY

7/7: Pickett, Ridder
6/7: Strong
5/7: Howell, Willis
3/7: Corral
After none of the top quarterback prospects in last year’s draft met Parcells’ criteria despite five being selected in the first round, Pickett and Ridder checked all the boxes in the year’s class. In 2020, both Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts met all seven criteria.

What’s interesting is that you can find the internet claiming that Parcells had rules for QBs. Sometimes 4. Sometimes 7. But you can not find Parcells himself talking about it. Or at least I couldn’t.

Makes one wonder.

[DesertSteel]

Johnson has always been the draft chart guy. Parcells is the one who has the 7 criteria for drafting a QB. If the QB meets all 7 criteria, then he’s worthy of drafting.

Keep in mind:



In case you are not familiar with Parcells’ criteria for drafting a quarterback, the following seven boxes had to be checked in order for a passer to be an option:

—Be a three-year starter
—Be a senior in college
—Graduate from college
—Start 30 games
—Win 23 games
—Post a 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
—Complete at least 60% of passes thrown

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...parcells-rules

FINAL TALLY

7/7: Pickett, Ridder
6/7: Strong
5/7: Howell, Willis
3/7: Corral
After none of the top quarterback prospects in last year’s draft met Parcells’ criteria despite five being selected in the first round, Pickett and Ridder checked all the boxes in the year’s class. In 2020, both Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts met all seven criteria.

While Parcells was a great coach, he was never known to be a quarterback guru. While 2-3 of his criteria are relevant in today's NFL, at least half of them are BS.

[86WARD]

While Parcells was a great coach, he was never known to be a quarterback guru. While 2-3 of his criteria are relevant in today's NFL, at least half of them are BS.

Agree

[Dwinsgames]

What’s interesting is that you can find the internet claiming that Parcells had rules for QBs. Sometimes 4. Sometimes 7. But you can not find Parcells himself talking about it. Or at least I couldn’t.

Makes one wonder.

what else is interesting is you get dinged for coming out early even though you got your degree early , started the necessary games and had 3 years as a starter ... one would think starting at a true freshman and never relinquishing the job would be bonus points while getting your degree early ...not a negative

but I digress

I too have searched for a Parcells quote on this and like you couldnt find a thing other than claims of it being his model ....

starting to remind me of Admiral Yamamoto quote about attacking mainland US in WW2 ... blah blah blah a rifle behind every blade of grass ...... while that would likely be a good analogy in some parts of the country it was never said by Yamamoto as far as anyone can prove

[Mojouw]

what else is interesting is you get dinged for coming out early even though you got your degree early , started the necessary games and had 3 years as a starter ... one would think starting at a true freshman and never relinquishing the job would be bonus points while getting your degree early ...not a negative

but I digress

I too have searched for a Parcells quote on this and like you couldnt find a thing other than claims of it being his model ....

starting to remind me of Admiral Yamamoto quote about attacking mainland US in WW2 ... blah blah blah a rifle behind every blade of grass ...... while that would likely be a good analogy in some parts of the country it was never said by Yamamoto as far as anyone can prove

Agreed on the coming out early thing.

The internet is a dodgy source at best for quotations. The Yamamoto one is a great example.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Whose arguing against that?

Almost certainly a difference between full time talent evaluators and fans trying to have a somewhat informed discussion in our free time.

I think we are mistaking "accuracy" with "completion percentage". Colbert doesnt reference "completion percentage" in the statement, but I think a lot of fans are mistaken that they both are the same.

I can think of several instances of watching some of these guys tape and seeing a completion on a inaccurate throw, like one that was thrown short that the WR had to come back to it and make a great play of digging the ball out of the turf to get the completion, but it wasnt accurate to the point that he could get any RAC yardage.

Another case where a ball was placed perfectly over the outside shoulder on a GO route and the WR bobbled the ball, while stepping out of bounds and was incomplete. An incredibly accurate throw, that was incomplete because the WR could not handle it. And there are others.

I think Colbert and the Steelers scouts will find some guys they judge as being more accurate than the numbers indicate and others that are not as accurate as the numbers indicate. For instance, I don't think that Carson Strong is viewed as having great accuracy with his passes, despite that 68.1% completion percentage.

[Mojouw]

I think we are mistaking "accuracy" with "completion percentage". Colbert doesnt reference "completion percentage" in the statement, but I think a lot of fans are mistaken that they both are the same.

I can think of several instances of watching some of these guys tape and seeing a completion on a inaccurate throw, like one that was thrown short that the WR had to come back to it and make a great play of digging the ball out of the turf to get the completion, but it wasnt accurate to the point that he could get any RAC yardage.

Another case where a ball was placed perfectly over the outside shoulder on a GO route and the WR bobbled the ball, while stepping out of bounds and was incomplete. An incredibly accurate throw, that was incomplete because the WR could not handle it. And there are others.

I think Colbert and the Steelers scouts will find some guys they judge as being more accurate than the numbers indicate and others that are not as accurate as the numbers indicate. For instance, I don't think that Carson Strong is viewed as having great accuracy with his passes, despite that 68.1% completion percentage.

I don't think anyone is doing that. I think that a bunch of fans that lack the time to review every throw that every draft eligible QB prospect has made, or at least the top 6 or so, is advocating to use completion percentage as a way to do a rough first sorting. No one is arguing that Colbert and Hunt should just click "Sort By Completion Percentage" on the College Football Database website and be like "And...we're done! Nailed it!".

You seem to have the time, inclination, and knowledge to grind through a bunch of game tapes of the draft eligible QBs. Many others on here do as well. I certainly don't have the time. Likely lack the knowledge to really do it justice anyways. So, I'm going to continue to look at completion % as a rough indicator of whether a kid can hit the broadside of barn or not. Then, I am going to read and watch as many scouting reports by reputable people as I can. Which, based on time commitments lately is like 2. Still, those should help me understand what that completion % number is built on.

I strongly suspect that the Steelers and other NFL teams are going to take a significantly different approach. If they are not, well start firing people.

[86WARD]

what else is interesting is you get dinged for coming out early even though you got your degree early , started the necessary games and had 3 years as a starter ... one would think starting at a true freshman and never relinquishing the job would be bonus points while getting your degree early ...not a negative

but I digress

I too have searched for a Parcells quote on this and like you couldnt find a thing other than claims of it being his model ....

starting to remind me of Admiral Yamamoto quote about attacking mainland US in WW2 ... blah blah blah a rifle behind every blade of grass ...... while that would likely be a good analogy in some parts of the country it was never said by Yamamoto as far as anyone can prove

There used to be four rules and then it went to seven but I too have never seen a quote from Parcells on these criteria. I think there’s something to be said about some of them but I think there’s a lot more that is more important than this list.

Accuracy, Vision, Ability to make throws, leadership, ability to anticipate routes, reading defenses, etc.

[Dwinsgames]

There used to be four rules and then it went to seven but I too have never seen a quote from Parcells on these criteria. I think there’s something to be said about some of them but I think there’s a lot more that is more important than this list.

Accuracy, Vision, Ability to make throws, leadership, ability to anticipate routes, reading defenses, etc.

all of that is important but the bold can't be undersold IMO ... good call

[Steeler-in-west]

Yup, leadership and reading defenses is not talked about enough. Guys like Haskins, Ryan Leaf, Jeff George had all the accuracy and arm strength in the world. But they weren't (aren't) leaders and didn't work at their craft to study and improve their ability to read defenses. Ultimately they didn't care enough about winning games.

[teegre]

I don't think anyone is doing that. I think that a bunch of fans that lack the time to review every throw that every draft eligible QB prospect has made

Speak for yourself. I’ve watched every game (with a minimum of three angles of every pass attempt) for every QB prospect in this draft. Even the D-III prospects. After spending months of time doing so, the answer to the QB dilemma is… 42

[hawaiiansteeler]

Speak for yourself. I’ve watched every game (with a minimum of three angles of every pass attempt) for every QB prospect in this draft. Even the D-III prospects. After spending months of time doing so, the answer to the QB dilemma is… 42

me too.

I slowed the game and their practice tapes down to 1/100th of the actual speed to get a better look. (I started 4 years ago)

[teegre]

me too.

I slowed the game and their practice tapes down to 1/100th of the actual speed to get a better look. (I started 4 years ago)

To quote Aristotle: “Tape doesn’t lie.”

[Dwinsgames]

me too.

I slowed the game and their practice tapes down to 1/100th of the actual speed to get a better look. (I started 4 years ago)

I have not slowed it down that much I have only went to 50% of actual speed if I would go to 100% I wouldn't have time to take everyone of these kids to dinner and everyone one of their coaches a few hours later .... you have no idea how much weight you can gain eating 2 dinners every day for nearly 3 months ..I know I should have done more but I just studied what I considered the top 90 QBs in the draft figured that would cover every drafted kid and every UDFA , the CFL and XFL guys too ... sure I could have probably went a little further to be certain but I have a stomach ache

[Dwinsgames]

lets not ignore Grit and toughness at the QB pos as those are nice traits to have too esp if you covet one that can run if need be or by design ...

something like this where the QB is the aggressor and victor in the tackle attempt even though the defender has his face mask too ....

he said "get off me bitch" ......

[Steeler-in-west]

lets not ignore Grit and toughness at the QB pos as those are nice traits to have too esp if you covet one that can run if need be or by design ...

something like this where the QB is the aggressor and victor in the tackle attempt even though the defender has his face mask too ....

he said "get off me bitch" ......

maybe toughness with intelligence- so he knows when to fight for a few extra yards and knows when to slide or go out of bounds…don’t want our knew QB going through multiple concussions

[Born2Steel]

lets not ignore Grit and toughness at the QB pos as those are nice traits to have too esp if you covet one that can run if need be or by design ...

something like this where the QB is the aggressor and victor in the tackle attempt even though the defender has his face mask too ....

he said "get off me bitch" ......

Look at that football. High and tight. All points of contact.