Sigh. I don't know how to say this any plainer. It isn't that I am so in love with Dupree. It is that a dispassionate assessment of OLB production across the Steelers roster and the league demonstrates that the player everyone seems to assume exists just doesn't. This board has made a straw man up. A 6-8 million dollar per year UFA or 3-4th round draft pick who can play good run defense, operate in space, and then dong his way to 8-12 sacks opposite Watt and behind Heyward. I keep hearing about how this player exists. Then all anyone can come up with is Shaq Barrett and literally NO ONE else.
Barrett is basically Dupree light. A guy who the team who drafted him believed in so much that they drafted Chubb incredibly high to replace him. Then he signs a one year cheapo contract to bet on himself and performs well in a contract year. So even if we assume that Barrett is legit going to perform like 2019 moving forward, he isn't signing for under double digits per year again in free agency. So, maybe there is some other 4th year to this point failed draft prospect that the Steelers can sign and roll the dice on in 2020? That isn't a plan, that is a fantasy.
As for Melvin Ingram and Dupree, you have to set the context.
Seasons 1-5:
Dupree 26 sacks. Ingram: 24.5
After his 5th season, Ingram was signed to a 4 year 64 million dollar deal. He has since had 22 sacks. But I suspect that some of those don't count because he is now opposite Bosa.
My point Melvin Ingram is Bud Dupree just drafted 3 years earlier. Flashed potential. Struggled with injuries and putting it all together. Questions if his success was due to him or the other players in the system. There is a clear blueprint for how NFL teams value guys on Bud Dupree's EXACT career path.
So say you dont want to pay Dupree. Awesome. That is an arguably really really fiscally responsible decision. Now you have to replace him. I would actually argue you have to replace every OLB on the roster not named Watt. So the team has two options in 2020. UFA and the draft. Getting a guy who put up Dupree's stats in FA would cost as much or more than Dupree would. So that is going to be hard to justify. While I would gladly concede that Ngakoue, Chris Jones, and a few others are pending UFA who are better than Dupree. But they are believed to be able to get $17 million plus on the open market. SO that isn't going to happen. Looking at what the next tier of guys are, you are looking at $4 million to $8 million per year for guys that are exactly what Dupree is believed to be on this board -- guys under 27-28 that have been draft disappointments for their current team. Have not had their rookie contracts extended. So you have to hope very hard that the Steelers pro scouting department and coaching staff can identify guys who just need a change of scenery or system to blossom into an above average OLB.
Or, even with all the other roster issues on the team, you can spend a 2nd and a 3rd and try and get a guy or guys that way. The last 5 draft classes have demonstrated that finding these big sack guys outside of the first round is really really hard. Look at this list --
http://pfref.com/tiny/HmOdI -- it is not a source for optimism.
So it isn't that I gaze upon Bud Dupree in love and admiration. It is that I look at the information available to me and unless I am missing something, determine that the last 5-6 years in the NFL make a compelling argument that when you have a player performing like 2019 Bud Dupree is, you should think long and hard about moving on from them.
1. They cost either money or high draft picks to replace.
2. Cobbling together a pass rush from multiple replacement players can and has had negative impacts on defenses across the league. Ravens are most recent example. Went from 11th to 29th or so. Green Bay got so tired of playing "random other OLB" across from Matthews, they spent $32+ million dollars on a matched set.
3. So while Bud Dupree is hardcore buyer beware -- there is just as strong buyer beware on the other side of the argument.