The Keith Butler Thread

[Mojouw]

We can say the same thing about rams, saints, chiefs and the pats.

I mean, the game between KC / NE ended 43-40 and the game between saints and rams was 45-35...

That's what I meant by being in the same boat.

Having one of these "It is 2018 and we cause 1 turnover a game, force 2 punts, and get 3-5 sacks, but give up 30+ points so we are basically a great defense!" defenses is not a fatal flaw. Some one said it upthread, the best thing that can happen is to have the offense just jump out to a lead. Falcons game, Ravens win, and Panthers win that is exactly what happened and it aids the defense immensely.

The SB last year had what, 600 some yards of offense? We might get 900 this year!

[Dwinsgames]

To a degree, I agree.

That said, the Falcons and Panthers have pretty good offenses.

the difference as of late ...


PRESSURE and lots of it .......

almost any stiff can cover for 2.5 seconds , beyond that is where the rubber meets the road so give opposing QB 2.5 seconds or less and most downs you will be successful as a defense

[Mojouw]

The unpredictable pass rushing isn't the issue. They already do that now as they try to disguise who is rushing the quarterback and who is not.

It's what is happening behind the pass rush that something needs to be created. Offenses have figured out that if they spread defenses out, they are able to identify defenses more easily and create space for the receivers and passing lanes while dictating to the defense. Of course, all that is predicated on the quarterback's ability to get the ball out quickly and to the right man without getting him killed by not having enough blockers to pick up the blitz if the defense attacks and goes man coverage. Then defensively, either the pass rush needs to get there and the coverage holds up or it doesn't. If you have a handful of guys that excel in press coverage and outstanding pass rushers, you have a chance. But even then, the pick plays we have been discussing here come into play to counter the man coverage.

It's a vicious cycle that defenses are forced to deal with by the way the game is legislated and officiated.

Of course, you already know all this.

Remember when they were considering widening the field because defenses had the upper hand? They no longer need to. Now that they make it harder for defenders to cover, easier to get penalized for pass interference, and easier to get penalized for hitting the QB and simply tackling, it is very hard to stop offenses. When you then add in what innovative offensive minds are doing to take advantage of the new style of play in the passing game and the RPO stuff integrated into offenses to stress defenses with the run and the pass......it is very hard to slow down elite offenses with great quarterbacks, good offensive line play, and numerous weapons.

Defenses are at a serious disadvantage.

Somebody, somewhere is spending nearly every available second locked in a room working on the next great defensive idea. We don't know who it is or when it will happen...but it will happen.

I hope so. I would like there to be more than one path to SB contention for NFL teams. It makes the league far more interesting.

The most important part of the next defensive innovation will be to make sure that you can do it without needing "elite" players across all 3 levels of the defense. Because if you can stop people but it takes Aaron Donald, Warren Sapp, JJ Watt, and Reggie White on the defensive line backed by Derrick Brooks, Lawrence Taylor, and Urlacher with a secondary featuring Polamalu, Reed, Sherman, and Revis to pull it off -- well than that is not a useful idea!

[teegre]

the difference as of late ...


PRESSURE and lots of it .......

almost any stiff can cover for 2.5 seconds , beyond that is where the rubber meets the road so give opposing QB 2.5 seconds or less and most downs you will be successful as a defense

100%

I remember when Revis was in his prime, and they asked his recently-retired teammate who is the most important defender in the NFL, and Damien Woodey replied: “James Harrison.” They asked Woodey to explain, and he said: “Revis is the best player that I’ve ever been around, but it all starts with pressure... and so... the DPOY has to be James Harrison.”

[Mojouw]

the difference as of late ...


PRESSURE and lots of it .......

almost any stiff can cover for 2.5 seconds , beyond that is where the rubber meets the road so give opposing QB 2.5 seconds or less and most downs you will be successful as a defense

And that is why I do not think the defensive "surge" is sustainable. The Saints, Rams, Chargers, Pats, and Chiefs have not given up pass pressure at the rate that even Carolina (who was pretty good before Thursday!) and certainly at a far less rate Atlanta!

However, some of the other high powered offenses are on par with the pressure rate of the Ravens and while the Steelers didn't generate sacks against Baltimore, they did harass Flacco. However, I argue that a better QB than Flacco would've hung 25-30 on the Steelers in that game.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol -- sort the chart on pass protection rank and you can see what I am basing my thinking on.

If the Steelers pass rush can "break" the protection schemes of a team that gives up pressure on less than 4.5-5% of their passing snaps -- then they have a chance to stifle any offense out there. IF not, then you better score 35+ every time you play.

[teegre]

And that is why I do not think the defensive "surge" is sustainable. The Saints, Rams, Chargers, Pats, and Chiefs have not given up pass pressure at the rate that even Carolina (who was pretty good before Thursday!) and certainly at a far less rate Atlanta!

However, some of the other high powered offenses are on par with the pressure rate of the Ravens and while the Steelers didn't generate sacks against Baltimore, they did harass Flacco. However, I argue that a better QB than Flacco would've hung 25-30 on the Steelers in that game.

If it finally “clicks” for Dupree, I’d say that we become the frontrunner.

[polamalubeast]

It was before the game vs CAR...

But it will be a challenge when the steelers will face the Pats and the Saints....

[Mojouw]

If it finally “clicks” for Dupree, I’d say that we become the frontrunner.

Combine that with points on first 2 offensive drives, and you then can unleash the DL as well because no one will be running the ball. It can work -- I'm not saying that it fundamentally can't. I have long been a fan of the types of defensive players the team is bringing in and the strategies they are trying to use. I actually like this defense and its approach. I just don't trust ANY defense in 2018 without massive offensive support.

Look at that recent Saints-Rams game. Both teams actually played some decent to fairly god defense in that game, but that final score was 30+ by both teams!

[pczach]

I hope so. I would like there to be more than one path to SB contention for NFL teams. It makes the league far more interesting.

The most important part of the next defensive innovation will be to make sure that you can do it without needing "elite" players across all 3 levels of the defense. Because if you can stop people but it takes Aaron Donald, Warren Sapp, JJ Watt, and Reggie White on the defensive line backed by Derrick Brooks, Lawrence Taylor, and Urlacher with a secondary featuring Polamalu, Reed, Sherman, and Revis to pull it off -- well than that is not a useful idea!

Agreed.

We see it at the college level where schools with inferior talent are able to compete by running unusual schemes.

The whole point of scheme is that it can work without elite talent everywhere. Those schemes usually rely on deception and aggression.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

We see it at the college level where schools with inferior talent are able to compete by running unusual schemes.
.

Just curious, would you give some examples of the schools you refer to and the conferences they play in?

My reason for asking is because the difference between college and the NFL is as somebody once said...." in the NFL, everybody was on scholarship". I think that some teams can run gadget offensive schemes in college and confuse some opponents, because there are many weak links on their opposing teams and opposing coaching staffs. In the cases of top 20 teams, its not that often that inferior talent beats them with gadget schemes.

The NFL is the best of the best, in talent, coaching, resources. We can point to what some may call "innovative schemes" such as Wildcat, Run N Shoot, Read Option, etc that came to the NFL, but the reality is that very few innovations that I can think of since West Coast Offense or Fire Zone Blitz defenses have ever made a difference in the NFL and neither of them came from College teams.

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If it finally “clicks” for Dupree, I’d say that we become the frontrunner.

Personally, I don't think Dupree is going to "click" and be really impactful. I think that the last few LT's he went up against were not top half of NFL talent. That being said, I think he is showing better use of his hands to shorten the arc to the QB in pass rush and be an asset in the pass rush, where in the past he was more of a liability.

I have always thought he had the size and strength to be good in the run game, but again at times didn't use his hands well to keep outside leverage.

[Mojouw]

Just curious, would you give some examples of the schools you refer to and the conferences they play in?

My reason for asking is because the difference between college and the NFL is as somebody once said...." in the NFL, everybody was on scholarship". I think that some teams can run gadget offensive schemes in college and confuse some opponents, because there are many weak links on their opposing teams and opposing coaching staffs. In the cases of top 20 teams, its not that often that inferior talent beats them with gadget schemes.

The NFL is the best of the best, in talent, coaching, resources. We can point to what some may call "innovative schemes" such as Wildcat, Run N Shoot, Read Option, etc that came to the NFL, but the reality is that very few innovations that I can think of since West Coast Offense or Fire Zone Blitz defenses have ever made a difference in the NFL and neither of them came from College teams.

- - - Updated - - -



Personally, I don't think Dupree is going to "click" and be really impactful. I think that the last few LT's he went up against were not top half of NFL talent. That being said, I think he is showing better use of his hands to shorten the arc to the QB in pass rush and be an asset in the pass rush, where in the past he was more of a liability.

I have always thought he had the size and strength to be good in the run game, but again at times didn't use his hands well to keep outside leverage.

Just about everything being done on offenses across the league with spread concepts, RPOs, read-options, jet motion, and whatnot has its roots in the college game.

The 3-4 defense was largely lifted wholesale from college level coaches. Then refined into the fire-zone.

Pete Carroll's entire defensive approach was worked out at the college level. That is why his first handful of drafts were so good. He just picked guys he wasn't able to get to come to USC and then ran his stuff.

The point is that college coaches face an imbalance in talent or capabilities far more frequently than NFL coaches do. As a result they are, in general, less risk averse and are willing to experiment and go away from traditional doctrine to try and close the gap. The NFL is about the most risk averse conservative institution in sports.

On offense, teams across the NFL are doing things as core components of their offenses that only a few years ago were regarded as "gimmicky" or "not viable long term". In my opinion this is largely because changes at the NCAA level are feeding a different kind of player into the NFL and the NFL has finally decided it is easier to adapt then to spend 1-3 seasons retraining every player they get their hands on.

On the defensive side of the ball, this has happened somewhat. One example is the slow rise of the "dimebacker" or "moneybacker" - playing 220-230 pound NFL safeties at MLB is something many college teams have been doing for some time. Another example is the shifting prioritization of traits in DT/NT. Teams want more of a penetrating style not a stand-up space eater -- at least based on draft rounds. So, I think we can see NFL defenses making small shifts based on the types of players that the NCAA is generating. But, for some reason, there has not been the massive whole scale schematic and tactical revisions that we have seen over the last 2-3 seasons on the offensive side of the ball coming to defenses at the NFL level. To my mind that raises several interesting questions:

1. Is there not an innovation to be made? Are there more ways to run an offense than there are a defense?
2. Can coverages only be disguised so much and the spread and motion concepts modern NFL offenses use pre-snap unveil any disguise attempted?
3. Is the answer to actually go the opposite direction - get simpler instead of more complicated? I think of this as the "full NCAA". Find the best 15 athletes that don't mind hitting people and design a simplified scheme that just gets them swarming to the ball. Each year just feed new young and freakishly athletic guys into the machine. Kind of like what a team like LSU does. Of course they just got lit up so....

I don't know the answers to any of this. But to fall back on the cliche that the NFL is different and better (it is) and therefore things are just what they are is precisely how defenses across the league found themselves in the position that they can't stop anyone.

[pczach]

Just curious, would you give some examples of the schools you refer to and the conferences they play in?

My reason for asking is because the difference between college and the NFL is as somebody once said...." in the NFL, everybody was on scholarship". I think that some teams can run gadget offensive schemes in college and confuse some opponents, because there are many weak links on their opposing teams and opposing coaching staffs. In the cases of top 20 teams, its not that often that inferior talent beats them with gadget schemes.

The NFL is the best of the best, in talent, coaching, resources. We can point to what some may call "innovative schemes" such as Wildcat, Run N Shoot, Read Option, etc that came to the NFL, but the reality is that very few innovations that I can think of since West Coast Offense or Fire Zone Blitz defenses have ever made a difference in the NFL and neither of them came from College teams.

You're right Gonzo.

There were teams like Boise St. that did all kinds of crazy things offensively....and for years, teams like Vanderbilt would always have good defenses while playing with inferior talent and aggressive schemes. Former Stanford DC Derek Mason became head coach of Vanderbilt. He fired his DC, took over the defense, and has worked on some unique flex-fronts to combat spread option attacks. He plays a complex scheme where all 11 players are able to adjust to stop what they see pre snap and allow his defenses to play at a high level against more talented teams.

Here are some articles on his defensive concepts. It's not a magic bullet by any means. It just shows the kind of thinking required to try to stay ahead of things defensively.

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/se...u-derek-mason/

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/va...t-not-alabama/

Right now, there are so many schools running the same offenses and wide-open schemes that they don't stand out like they used to. Defenses everywhere are struggling to compete unless they have elite talent. So much is copied and used at even the biggest programs that there is nothing that comes off as completely new ideas.

Over the past decade, so many of the college offensive concepts have been integrated into NFL offenses that there are no current examples off the top of my head.

My post wasn't to point in a direction that I think they should go for a defensive scheme. I don't think that a scheme currently exists. I am simply pointing out that football minds will come up with the next new thing at some point. I don't know when that will happen, but I have faith that we haven't seen the ultimate evolution of defense yet. It will continue to evolve over time and find answers to counter what offenses are doing...until offenses come up with a way to defeat it again.

[Butch]

If they slow the Pats and the Chargers, I’ll believe. If not, I’ll stand by my belief that the Steelers can only beat elite offensive teams in a shoot out.

Which would put them in the same boat as the Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, and Chargers.


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IDK we have played both some pretty good Defensive teams and some pretty good offensive teams. We played KC early when we were still rusty and trying to figure things out, I wonder if things would have been different if we played them later in the season? Who knows?

You pointed out how we played against the Ravens, but playing them is much different then say playing those other teams. The Ravens have a Defense, maybe not as great as they once were but still better than most. It is also a rivalry game, so they are more familiar with us than most. IMHO the ravens game was not as close as it seemed. I never doubted we would pull that game out. Yes we left plays out there and got lucky a time or two, but that happens. Hell even against the panthers we let them score 21 points and Ben missed on 3 passes.

This past Thursday when we played the Panthers I saw what I consider a balanced team, pretty good offense and a decent defense as opposed to the saints who I see as a great offensive team and not so much on D. I was not sure what to expect from that game being it was a short week and we came off beating the Ravens. I was pleasantly surprised at how well we played that game. I would say it was damn near a perfect game. I don't expect we will see that kind of play every week if ever again, but it was the best Team win I think I have ever seen.

I don't know that our Defense will stop those other teams you mentioned but I like our chances. The difference to me between us and those other teams is that we seem to be playing a very balanced game with the Offense that can play ball control and a D that can bring some heat. I cannot say that about the other teams you mentioned, but then again I really don't follow those other teams. If everyone stays healthy enough to play I like our chances against any team.

[ALLD]

If Ben has a bad game it doesn't matter how good or bad is our defense. Should have beat Cleveland the first time by simply running the ball. They put away the Panthers by the end of the first half. That should be their goal or at least by the end of the 3rd quarter. Then send in the relief pitchers.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

1. Is there not an innovation to be made? Are there more ways to run an offense than there are a defense?
2. Can coverages only be disguised so much and the spread and motion concepts modern NFL offenses use pre-snap unveil any disguise attempted?
3. Is the answer to actually go the opposite direction - get simpler instead of more complicated? I think of this as the "full NCAA". Find the best 15 athletes that don't mind hitting people and design a simplified scheme that just gets them swarming to the ball. Each year just feed new young and freakishly athletic guys into the machine. Kind of like what a team like LSU does. Of course they just got lit up so....

I don't know the answers to any of this. But to fall back on the cliche that the NFL is different and better (it is) and therefore things are just what they are is precisely how defenses across the league found themselves in the position that they can't stop anyone.

My point is that what works in college with average athletes, mostly doesn't translate well to the NFL where there are elite athletes across the board. The Wildcat was squashed in a year, the read option with Robert Griffin III was solved in a season by confusing the QB and then punishing him when he had the football. The Mouse Davis/June Jones Run and shoot offense was great for Houston Oilers between the 20 yard lines and in good weather.....but ultimately failed due to lack of ability to run the football.

People are always going to look for the next edge, the next improvement, but I liken it to cell phones or computers. Those industries are so well developed that advances now are small, not revolutionary. I think the NFL being such a mature game that any advances are similarly small and incremental, not revolutionary. I think any improvements we see will be from NFL coaches and teams, not adopting college schemes

[GBMelBlount]

If Ben has a bad game it doesn't matter how good or bad is our defense.

Should have beat Cleveland the first time by simply running the ball. They put away the Panthers by the end of the first half. That should be their goal or at least by the end of the 3rd quarter. Then send in the relief pitchers.

Agreed.

It mainly comes down to Ben's play.

[Mojouw]

My point is that what works in college with average athletes, mostly doesn't translate well to the NFL where there are elite athletes across the board. The Wildcat was squashed in a year, the read option with Robert Griffin III was solved in a season by confusing the QB and then punishing him when he had the football. The Mouse Davis/June Jones Run and shoot offense was great for Houston Oilers between the 20 yard lines and in good weather.....but ultimately failed due to lack of ability to run the football.

People are always going to look for the next edge, the next improvement, but I liken it to cell phones or computers. Those industries are so well developed that advances now are small, not revolutionary. I think the NFL being such a mature game that any advances are similarly small and incremental, not revolutionary. I think any improvements we see will be from NFL coaches and teams, not adopting college schemes

So how do you explain the overwhelming success of “college offenses” in the NFL the last few seasons? Eagles, Chiefs, Rams, etc.


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[Dwinsgames]

every time someone builds a better mouse trap someone goes and invents a better mouse ....

[86WARD]

If they slow the Pats and the Chargers, I’ll believe. If not, I’ll stand by my belief that the Steelers can only beat elite offensive teams in a shoot out.

Which would put them in the same boat as the Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, and Chargers.


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Chargers are getting Bosa back so theoretically they should be improving on defense relatively soon...

[polamalubeast]

Chargers are getting Bosa back so theoretically they should be improving on defense relatively soon...

Bosa is a great player and he should have a big impact against several teams, but against the steelers, it's less likely, since right now our o-line is unbelievable!

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

So how do you explain the overwhelming success of “college offenses” in the NFL the last few seasons? Eagles, Chiefs, Rams, etc.


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Do you really think that Andy Reid, Doug Pederson and Sean McVay are running "college offenses"?

Maybe have a look at how long Andy Reid and Doug Pederson have been in the NFL. Their NFL experience has shaped their coaching philosophy, not "college offenses".

[pczach]

Do you really think that Andy Reid, Doug Pederson and Sean McVay are running "college offenses"?

Maybe have a look at how long Andy Reid and Doug Pederson have been in the NFL. Their NFL experience has shaped their coaching philosophy, not "college offenses".

No, of course they aren't running college offenses. They've taken elements of college offenses and integrated them into the more sophisticated NFL offenses with much more offensive diversity, complexity, and intricate route trees.


They've figured out how to integrate some things which give them advantages based on how defenses react. It's that simple.

[Born2Steel]

So how do you explain the overwhelming success of “college offenses” in the NFL the last few seasons? Eagles, Chiefs, Rams, etc.


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I cannot explain it in the context of this conversation, but only to say that the rules today allow offenses to spread out the defense and get the one on one matchups those offenses thrive on. Seems every team moves between the 20s with ease now. It's in the redzone where OCs earn their pay.

[Mojouw]

Do you really think that Andy Reid, Doug Pederson and Sean McVay are running "college offenses"?

Maybe have a look at how long Andy Reid and Doug Pederson have been in the NFL. Their NFL experience has shaped their coaching philosophy, not "college offenses".

There are numerous articles and breakdowns all over the internet from players, coaches, and other knowledgeable observers that many of the foundational concepts found in the NFL offenses I mentioned are lifted from the college level. During the Eagles SB run defenders were yelling that the Eagles were running “a college offense”.

This is not something I’ve made up.


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[Mojouw]

As to "college offenses" in the NFL --

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/10/13/...ption-offenses

http://www.espn.com/blog/kansas-city...ses-to-the-nfl

https://www.theringer.com/2018/8/14/...ege-effect-day

That was .6 seconds of Google searching. Of course it does need to be said that none of this is to say that someone is just running OK State's playbook or something. I think pczach addressed that above.

[Mojouw]

I cannot explain it in the context of this conversation, but only to say that the rules today allow offenses to spread out the defense and get the one on one matchups those offenses thrive on. Seems every team moves between the 20s with ease now. It's in the redzone where OCs earn their pay.

So do you think that the only "countermove" would be to alter the rules to allow defenses to do more to disrupt the offensive players? Not sure what those would be, but I'm thinking about how baseball has raised and lowered the mound in order to "tweak" scoring over the decades.

Maybe allow some more grabbing and rerouting of receivers?

[Mojouw]

To totally derail the thread even more than I already have...

...a fascinating test of some of this college offense in the pros stuff would be if the rampantly speculated hiring of Lincoln Riley goes down. If some team like the Cowboys, Browns, or Jets lures him to the NFL and he runs his system it would be interesting to see how effective it is.

Evidence from Chip Kelly and Urban Meyer would say not very effective, but the recent shifts would say maybe it rains yards and points?

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I cannot explain it in the context of this conversation, but only to say that the rules today allow offenses to spread out the defense and get the one on one matchups those offenses thrive on. Seems every team moves between the 20s with ease now. It's in the redzone where OCs earn their pay.

This was exactly the thought of Al Davis when June Jones was using the Run and Shoot in Houston. Davis wasn't worried about how prolific the Oilers were between the 20's...he knew that offense was limited near the goal line, so if the Oilers didn't score on a long TD, then they would struggle. That and the Run and shoot wasn't built for cold weather playoff football.

[SteelMember]

BUTLER METER©:
10 Alfred Pennyworth
9 J.A.R.V.I.S.
8 Mr. Belvedere
7 Jeeves
6 Woodhouse
5 Benson
4 Coleman
3 Lurch
2 Riffraff
1 Bertram (from Jessie)

Going from the "Official Butler Meter", and I'm assuming 10 is the best Butler one could be, after the last 2 weeks I'd have to say he's pushing up on JARVIS level if Belvedere was the prior.
The TEAM has been progressing... which includes Mr.Butler and his leadership. We'll see what they dial up for Jacksonville this week.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

BUTLER METER©:
10 Alfred Pennyworth
9 J.A.R.V.I.S.
8 Mr. Belvedere
7 Jeeves
6 Woodhouse
5 Benson
4 Coleman
3 Lurch
2 Riffraff
1 Bertram (from Jessie)

Going from the "Official Butler Meter", and I'm assuming 10 is the best Butler one could be, after the last 2 weeks I'd have to say he's pushing up on JARVIS level if Belvedere was the prior.
The TEAM has been progressing... which includes Mr.Butler and his leadership. We'll see what they dial up for Jacksonville this week.

OK, I was confused. I thought it was like DEFCON warning level and the scale was reversed. I thought we might be standing in a calm position like Coleman currently. The less popular or prominent, the lower level of hysteria. Thanks for bringing up this point as I feel we need clarification.