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Thread: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

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    "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    American University professor puts 7-for-7 streak on the line in upcoming presidential election.

    History is on President Obama’s side as the 2012 elections approach.


    And by "history" we mean Allan Lichtman, an American University professor who has gone 7-for-7 at predicting presidential elections since he developed his candidate-picking system roughly two decades ago.


    Lichtman says that based on the 13 criteria he has used to correctly forecast every presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s re-election victory in 1984, Team Obama can rest easy. "Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose," Lichtman told US News.


    The college professor developed his system back in 1981 and published the rather basic formula in his book, The Keys to the White House. Basically, the "keys" test the recent performance of the party that is currently in the White House; according to US News, if six or more of them go against the party in power, then the opposing party can start picking out the bands they want at the inaugural ball.


    "The keys have figured into popular politics a bit," Lichtman says. "They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to."


    Here’s a brief rundown of how Lichtman scores Obama on the 13 criteria:


    1) Incumbent party picks up seats in preceding mid-term. Point Republicans.


    2) There is no serious challenger for the incumbent party nomination. Point Obama.


    3) The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Point Obama.


    4) There is no significant third party challenger. Point Obama.


    5) The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign. Push (Lichtman declares this one “undecided.”)


    6) Real per capita economic growth during the past term is at least equal to mean growth during the previous two terms. Point Republicans.


    7) The incumbent administration pushes through major national policy changes. Point Obama.


    8) There is no sustained social unrest during the previous term. Point Obama.


    9) The incumbent administration has no major scandals. Point Obama.


    10) The incumbent administration suffers no major foreign/military affairs failure. Point Obama.


    11) The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign/military affairs. Point Obama.


    12) The incumbent party candidate is charismatic. Point Republicans.


    13) The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Point Obama.


    Final score (again, we stress, on Lichtman’s scorecard): 9-3-1, Obama wins. US News has more on Lichtman's decision-making process here.

    http://slatest.slate.com/posts/2011/...for_obama.html

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    You don't have to be an expert to predict that, the Republican party is assuring that with their inability to find or field a a reasonable candidate. If the Republicans could somehow produce a good candidate they'd likely blow Obama out of the water.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    It would still be 8-4-1 if they did.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    7. Is debatable. Obamacare is awful legislation, the individual mandate might very well be overturned by the courts (and with it, the whole way it was ostensibly going to be funded). It isn't going to be anything he can trumpet, so I might call that a push.
    8. Is also arguable. One could conceivably call the TEA Party an indicator of sustained social unrest.
    11. What would 11 be? What has Obama accomplished militarily? Please don't say Libya. Everything else is an extension or expansion of "failed Bush policies"
    13. Is unknown

    Just asking some questions could shift this to 7-5-1, or 6-6-1.

    Probably a little early to call this one just yet. However, with the field of losers currently lined up against him, Obama would have to have an October surprise along the lines of "dead girl or live boy" to be unseated.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    I guess they are debatable based on how you define the terms but the man who developed it doesn't see social unrest as he meant the term.
    11 can simply be Osama.
    13 isn't unknown unless Patraeus quits the CIA and declares himself.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    13? Bachmann is charismatic. Perry is charismatic.

    Too early to tell on many of these. Interesting aside, NO ONE is discussing the individual mandate. Has no one thought of this? The whole scam to pay for this piece of shit (Obamacare) was to force everyone to pay into it. If you don't have people paying premiums, but still have to cover everyone, this is going to be a giant sucking money pit from Hades, when we can least afford it.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    I think it means someone who can charm or impress the other side. Bachmann just gives us chills.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by suitanim View Post
    Too early to tell on many of these. Interesting aside, NO ONE is discussing the individual mandate. Has no one thought of this? The whole scam to pay for this piece of shit (Obamacare) was to force everyone to pay into it. If you don't have people paying premiums, but still have to cover everyone, this is going to be a giant sucking money pit from Hades, when we can least afford it.
    It's Obama's and the Democrats' own fault if that gets ruled unconstitutional. If they felt that health care reform was such a pressing issue, they should have at least gone with a public option.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by The Patriot View Post
    It's Obama's and the Democrats' own fault if that gets ruled unconstitutional. If they felt that health care reform was such a pressing issue, they should have at least gone with a public option.
    Remember who you're talking to. I actually think the public option is better than the half-assed piece of garbage they came up with (Not that I like the public option at all). I actually LIKE Obama's recent idea to rebuild the infrastructure of this Country. Not everything the man says is wrong. I agree that compromise is good in most cases.

    Let me put it this way: If the GOP had control of the house, the Senate, and the WH, and they wanted the public option, guess what?

    We'd have it.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Well, I'd like to see authentic newspaper article or something to "prove" that this fellow actually predicted the presidential election and when those predictions were made. His "say so" doesn't cut it with me.

    Either way, right now he predicts Obama wins, will he hold to that or run his "software" X times between now and Nov/2012?

    If he chooses Obama in the end he will be 7 - 1.

    Besides, isn't this like predicting the sex of a baby before it's born? You have a 50/50 shot at getting it. His calculations are probably all hogwash and he landed within the 50% range.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by suitanim View Post
    Remember who you're talking to. I actually think the public option is better than the half-assed piece of garbage they came up with (Not that I like the public option at all). I actually LIKE Obama's recent idea to rebuild the infrastructure of this Country. Not everything the man says is wrong. I agree that compromise is good in most cases.

    Let me put it this way: If the GOP had control of the house, the Senate, and the WH, and they wanted the public option, guess what?

    We'd have it.
    And if Republicans wanted compromise, they'd have it too. Right now they're rejecting everything Obama touches, even if it's a Republican idea. It took nearly all of the liberal Democrats in Congress to pass Boehner's debt-ceiling proposal, because even Boehner couldn't get the Republican support.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Theoretically, 2, 4, 9, and 10 could change. But the real problem with his model is that those aren't all independent, equally important factors. A bad economy carries more weight than major foreign policy achievements (just ask Daddy Bush). A bad economy also makes a primary challenger more likely.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by The Patriot View Post
    And if Republicans wanted compromise, they'd have it too. Right now they're rejecting everything Obama touches, even if it's a Republican idea. It took nearly all of the liberal Democrats in Congress to pass Boehner's debt-ceiling proposal, because even Boehner couldn't get the Republican support.
    That's why when you control all 3, you take no prisoners.

    It was amateur hour when the Dems were in charge. That's what happens when you elect a "Community Organizer" to the highest office in the land.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by suitanim View Post
    That's why when you control all 3, you take no prisoners.

    It was amateur hour when the Dems were in charge. That's what happens when you elect a "Community Organizer" to the highest office in the land.
    It truly was amateur hour. Picking health care reform was his big mistake. It diffused support from Democrats and riled up the libertarian right. I don't care that he wasn't authoritative: he campaigned on bipartisanship. What I don't understand is why he then picked a partisan issue that his base couldn't rally behind.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    At this point I would vote for anybody other than Obama. It is looking like the 1980 election when Reagan buried Carter. Obama is not living up to anybody's expectations.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    Quote Originally Posted by The Patriot View Post
    It truly was amateur hour. Picking health care reform was his big mistake. It diffused support from Democrats and riled up the libertarian right. I don't care that he wasn't authoritative: he campaigned on bipartisanship. What I don't understand is why he then picked a partisan issue that his base couldn't rally behind.
    1. Jobs
    2. Jobs
    3. Jobs
    4. Jobs
    5. Jobs

    Those should have been his top 5. Healthcare could have been covered in the second term.


    This guy is just NOW addressing the jobs issue. And the American people may just be ridiculous enough to buy it. Meanwhile the GOP has two candidates who grew their state economies in the middle of all this, and only one of them is even on anyone's radar.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    I noticed "The Oracle" Warren Buffet is betting on Obama also... by the way, there's a sign post up ahead. Next stop: the twilight zone.

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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    I can't quite figure out why Buffet has a hard-on for Hopey. It's certainly not because of his pro-business stance. My guess is it's some kind of weird self-hate thing Buffet is experiencing late in life. He's already pledged to give away about 85% of his wealth to the Gates Foundation, so maybe he's hoping to blow the other 15% up because he thinks he doesn't deserve it or something.

    Who knows.
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    Re: "Never-Wrong" Pundit Predicts 2012 Win for Obama

    I would rather have Obama win than a Republican who's not serious about reducing government and cutting spending. If somebody's going to be blamed for the inevitable result of runaway government spending, better that it's a Democrat.
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