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Thread: The NFL Draft: An (in)exact Process (by Chidi29) - April 25, 2011

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    The NFL Draft: An (in)exact Process (by Chidi29) - April 25, 2011

    2+2 = 4

    Always has and always will be. It is a simple equation with a definite answer.

    In other words, it is the total opposite of the way the NFL Draft works. Everyone loves to predict what their favorite team will do. Who will go first overall? Who will be the diamond in the rough? Or the next JaMarcus Russell? I'm just as guilty. Draft season is the home to endless speculation and rumors.

    But that all goes out the window beginning on April 28th.

    That is what makes an event like the draft different from a math equation. It is not predictable nor is it constant. A change in what is expected creates a domino effect. A team reaches for a player, passes on a top prospect, or makes a trade, and the rest of the draft changes.

    There are unknowns that fans simply can't recognize. An injury that showed up at the Combine. A player that interviewed poorly. Someone who doesn't like the weight room or hits the nightclubs instead of film study. Issues fans and analysts who don't have the connections simply aren't able to see. A lot of information can be gained on tape but considering the year-round nature of the job, the makeup of a player off the gridiron has significant importance.

    Just like high school, there are rumors. Mel Kiper might not write about them in his diary, on the other hand Todd McShay might, but this is the season of misinformation. Teams try to knock prospects they love and gush about the ones that are off their draft board.

    Fans see and consume it all but are left with the task of trying to weed through the facts and lies. An impossible thing to do, of course.

    We try to quantify what can't be quantified. To break it down into numbers. If "X" then "Y". But that isn't how the draft operates. That isn't how people operate. It's an art, not a science.

    During the last three days in April, 2+2 may equal five. Or fifty-five. Or whatever gives you the fastest forty time.

    If you're Al Davis.


    © 2011 Steelers Universe




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    Re: The NFL Draft: An (in)exact Process (by Chidi29) - April 25, 2011

    Great article Chidi!!!!

    Its as we have said before....the "eye test" is your best judge when evaluating some of this talent. Even "production" can be manipulated. The University of Illinois runs a defense that funnels the ballcarrier to the middle of the field and "pads" the stats of their ILB's.

    A few years ago I was enamored with J. Lehman of Illinois who put up gaudy numbers. He ended up going undrafted because his stats were more a result of his system and not his talent. After I went back and looked at his tape....it was obvious that he had good instincts but was slow and stiff.

    Looking at Wilson, the ILB for Illinois this year...I see the same thing. He is faster than Lehman, but possibly just as stiff if not worst. He will get overdafted by some team that will get all rosey-eyed over his stats and straightline speed.
    "I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play"

    -- Jack Lambert --

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    Re: The NFL Draft: An (in)exact Process (by Chidi29) - April 25, 2011

    Definitely agree Perry. For us, the eye test is all we can go on and make no mistake, is valuable. But there are tons of other factors that come into play that us "commonfolk" just don't know about. And once one unforseen event takes place, the rest of the draft changes.

    That's the beauty, and the frustration, of the draft..

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    Re: The NFL Draft: An (in)exact Process (by Chidi29) - April 25, 2011

    Great read Chidi, but you forgot to mention my favorite point. Next week the 2012 draft season starts.

    I love reading yours and LLT's stuff. Thank You.

    AML

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    Re: The NFL Draft: An (in)exact Process (by Chidi29) - April 25, 2011

    Quote Originally Posted by Chidi29 View Post
    Definitely agree Perry. For us, the eye test is all we can go on and make no mistake, is valuable. But there are tons of other factors that come into play that us "commonfolk" just don't know about. And once one unforseen event takes place, the rest of the draft changes.

    That's the beauty, and the frustration, of the draft..
    Exactly...thats why there is always that "surprise" player that falls out of the first couple of rounds. Remember last year how Ciron Black went undrafted after being considered a 2nd-4th round pick? It was only after the draft that we heard that he had some knee issues and that teams had failed to work him out as a OG prospect
    "I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play"

    -- Jack Lambert --

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    Re: The NFL Draft: An (in)exact Process (by Chidi29) - April 25, 2011

    Looking back on the draft, I think my article proves true. No one saw half of the events that took place. Mock drafts, definitely including my own, are riddled with red marks.

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