Need vs Value vs. BPA

[LLT]

There is not as much of a gap between BPA...Need...and Value as some of us might think. Simply put...We will assign a draft grade to each player and will draft the player with the highest grade with three determinates coming into play.

1) We havnt reached a "plateau" for that position.
2) We have players available with virtually identical draft grades and must look at immediate need to make a tie breaker.
3)We have a players available with virtually identical draft grades, virtually equal needs, and must look at value to make a tie breaker.

For instance...if for some odd reason...Cam Newton falls to #31 (he wont...but this is an intellectual exercise only)...the Steelers' first thought would not be to draft him but to try and use him as leverage to accumulate more picks through a trade.

Since we have a plateau at QB, our need isnt great enough to waste a 1st round pick on a backup player. Now if Ben was older (like when the Packers drafted Rogers to sit behind Favre) then it would make sense to grab a player who could replace him in a few years.

So, looking at BPA this year lets assume, for simplicities sake, that no player slides drastically. Here are the players that I think might be available at #31.

DE Cameron Heyward ranked
OLB Akeem Ayers ranked
QB Christian Ponder ranked
OG Danny Watkins ranked
CB Aaron Williams ranked
OLB Jabaal Sheard ranked

With this scenerio we would probably:
1) See if anyone wanted to trade up for a QB. If not...we pass on Ponder due to having a plateau at QB.
2) Eliminate Sheard since the higher ranked Ayers can play 3-4 OLB and doesnt have the character concerns of Sheard.

Now we have to choose between DE Heyward, OLB Ayers, OG Watkins, and CB Williams....all based on BPA and this is were "need" comes into play.

First we look at ranking...Heyward is the highest ranking player of the four

Then we look at need to to determine tie breakers. IF we determine that Heyward and Williams were rated exactly even as far as the Steelers were concerned, the front office will determine which of the two would strengthen the team quicker based on more immediate need.

Then we look at value to determine the tiebreakers . If the front office sees that there is legitimate talent at CB in the later rounds with a pretty good drop off in talent at DE after the first round, then it makes sense to draft the DE now and still pick up a good CB later. In this scenerio DE Cameron Heyward is not only the BPA based on rank but also when taking need and value into consideration

[st33lersguy]

Doesn't Value and BPA go hand and hand

[Borski]

I dont think its strictly one or the other, I think is should be a combination of the 2.

I think need is more important then BPA.

For example if your top three needs are
1 DE
2 RB
3 CB

and the BPA was a QB but you had no need for a QB but say the 2nd BPA is a CB then he also fits a need.

[LLT]

Doesn't Value and BPA go hand and hand

That is my point...often we make the "Need vs BPA" argument.... but the reality is that value and need and BPA are so intertwined that they cant be seperated by teams that draft well.

Teams that draft poorly dont know how to incorporate need and value into the BPA equation.

[Texasteel]

Guys, the word value has been my big problem this year.

First of all: I am becoming convinced that we don't pick at 31. I think we back out of the 1st round 5 or 6 spots and end up with Dowling. The others I really like in the 2nd we probably don't have a real shot at. Cannon, Ijalana

Second: Where as I normally fall in love with guys in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, this year it has been the 4th, 5th, and believe it or not even the 6th rounds.

Looking at the mid-late round players. I like

OT / Barksdale, Newton, and Hairston. OG / Moffitt, and Hurd. DL / Parker, Carter. S / Culliver, Prosinski. TE / Thomas, and Smith. LB / Homan ,and Sheppard may end up in the 4th round. Now Chidi has thrown this kid Sumner at me.

My head is swimming a little right now, but I'll get it straight by draft day.

[LLT]

Guys, the word value has been my big problem this year.

First of all: I am becoming convinced that we don't pick at 31. I think we back out of the 1st round 5 or 6 spots and end up with Dowling. The others I really like in the 2nd we probably don't have a real shot at. Cannon, Ijalana

Second: Where as I normally fall in love with guys in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, this year it has been the 4th, 5th, and believe it or not even the 6th rounds.

Looking at the mid-late round players. I like

OT / Barksdale, Newton, and Hairston. OG / Moffitt, and Hurd. DL / Parker, Carter. S / Culliver, Prosinski. TE / Thomas, and Smith. LB / Homan ,and Sheppard may end up in the 4th round. Now Chidi has thrown this kid Sumner at me.

My head is swimming a little right now, but I'll get it straight by draft day.

"Value" is a word that confuses a lot of people....its hard to wrap our minds around the complexities of a denominator that changes from round to round. "Talent" and "Team Need" are constants....where as the term "value" might apply to a player in the 4th round...but not the 2nd.

For instance...I would love to have OT Marcus Cannon and CB Ras-I Dowling by the end of the 2nd round. Both have INCREDIBLE talent....both MEET our team need...but if we were to draft one of them at the end of the 1st round...we then fail to meet the "value" portion of the BPA equation as far as most fans are concerned.

[steelerfan]

"Value" is a word that confuses a lot of people....its hard to wrap our minds around the complexities of a denominator that changes from round to round. "Talent" and "Team Need" are constants....where as the term "value" might apply to a player in the 4th round...but not the 2nd.

For instance...I would love to have OT Marcus Cannon and CB Ras-I Dowling by the end of the 2nd round. Both have INCREDIBLE talent....both MEET our team need...but if we were to draft one of them at the end of the 1st round...we then fail to meet the "value" portion of the BPA equation as far as most fans are concerned.

I can respect your love for Cannon LLT. But to me, honestly, he worries me alot. He is not a natural knee bender. And his weight and conditioning have always been a problem as well. Yes he has straight ahead Bull strength. But his total lack of mobility worries me. I mean his cone drill times were amongst the slowest ever at the combines. And that's a tell tale sign of whether or not a O-Linemen will be able to have the side to side lateral quickness to make it in the NFL.


No way could he ever be a tackle in the Pros. And honestly I can think of way better guards I would rather have then Cannon. Some even obtainable later then round 2.

[LLT]

I can respect your love for Cannon LLT. But to me, honestly, he worries me alot. He is not a natural knee bender. And his weight and conditioning have always been a problem as well. Yes he has straight ahead Bull strength. But his total lack of mobility worries me. I mean his cone drill times were amongst the slowest ever at the combines. And that's a tell tale sign of whether or not a O-Linemen will be able to have the side to side lateral quickness to make it in the NFL.

No way could he ever be a tackle in the Pros. And honestly I can think of way better guards I would rather have then Cannon. Some even obtainable later then round 2.

I couldnt disagree with you more about his mobility...Cannon could play either guard position. His natural position is probably RT but he has the footwork to "fill in" at LT if needed on a temporary basis. He has EXCELLENT foot work and is very nimble...I wouldnt worry about his weight since every evaluation of him describes him as being a very hard worker. He posseses a great initial "punch" but does need to work on hand placement. He will need to sharpen his technique in regards to his knee bend but shows that when he is technique conscious and bends his knees he is an exceptional pass blocker.

After all that...I would say that I LOVE Ijalana and Rackley and have no problem with drafting either of them as our right guard. (Actually I would move them to LG and then move Kemo to RG where is athletic deficiencies wouldnt be a hinderance)


Cannon is ranked #51 overall...but I would not be surprised to see him drafted as early as #34 to the Bills

[steelerfan]

I couldnt disagree with you more about his mobility...Cannon could play either guard position. His natural position is probably RT but he has the footwork to "fill in" at LT if needed on a temporary basis. He has EXCELLENT foot work and is very nimble...I wouldnt worry about his weight since every evaluation of him describes him as being a very hard worker. He posseses a great initial "punch" but does need to work on hand placement. He will need to sharpen his technique in regards to his knee bend but shows that when he is technique conscious and bends his knees he is an exceptional pass blocker.

After all that...I would say that I LOVE Ijalana and Rackley and have no problem with drafting either of them as our right guard. (Actually I would move them to LG and then move Kemo to RG where is athletic deficiencies wouldnt be a hinderance)


Cannon is ranked #51 overall...but I would not be surprised to see him drafted as early as #34 to the Bills

LLT, there is alot to like about Cannon. But his lateral quickness is not one of them. Please show me a scout who says different. I mean he ran like a 8 1/2 second 3-cone drill. That's not too good. I think the Steelers are looking serious EDIT:..Sorry, I mistaked Hudson with Gilbert. But Hudson is a top level C/G with smarts and great technique. Me thinks that Pittsburgh likes him more then Cannon, who they have not even talked with.

[LLT]

LLT, there is alot to like about Cannon. But his lateral quickness is not one of them. Please show me a scout who says different. I mean he ran like a 8 1/2 second 3-cone drill. That's not too good. I think the Steelers are looking serious EDIT:..Sorry, I mistaked Hudson with Gilbert. But Hudson is a top level C/G with smarts and great technique. Me thinks that Pittsburgh likes him more then Cannon, who they have not even talked with.

Lateral quickness and mobility are two different terms when talking about linemen. Lateral quickness is a players ability to move side to side and slide...When it comes to lateral movement, a players should show an explosive first step and have the ability to stop and re-direct his step off a single leg while sliding. Mobility, on the other hand, is a players ability to demonstrate quick feet and fluid hips.

I think you are referring to his slide....Correct? If so...I agree he needs to to be coached-up on it or the DE or OLB will get around the edge on him. Which would be a non factor if moved inside.

I know that some people Love Hudson... I think he is a natural Center but I wouldnt want him as a OG....especially since there are better natural guards like the two I mentioned before (Ijalana & Rackley)..the best VALUE at OG is John Moffitt who could be drafted as late as the 4th or 5th rounds.

[steelerfan]

Lateral quickness and mobility are two different terms when talking about linemen. Lateral quickness is a players ability to move side to side and slide...When it comes to lateral movement, a players should show an explosive first step and have the ability to stop and re-direct his step off a single leg while sliding. Mobility, on the other hand, is a players ability to demonstrate quick feet and fluid hips.

I think you are referring to his slide....Correct? If so...I agree he needs to to be coached-up on it or the DE or OLB will get around the edge on him. Which would be a non factor if moved inside.

I know that some people Love Hudson... I think he is a natural Center but I wouldnt want him as a OG....especially since there are better natural guards like the two I mentioned before (Ijalana & Rackley)..the best VALUE at OG is John Moffitt who could be drafted as late as the 4th or 5th rounds.

But LLT, Styles make players to. Cannon's lack of good movement would be a problem in our offense cause Ben tends to never stay in the pocket, nor is he as effective. And that's where Cannon would be a liability. Which is why the steelers have not even talked with him. Same goes for Moffitt. In a straigh zone-blocking scheme he might be effective. But for our line, he would be a disaster. As for Hudson being a Center more then a guard. He played guard for 2 straight seasons before this one winning the best O-Linemen of the year award, and grading out in those 2 seasons at 88 %..higher then any other O-Linemen the past 7 seasons. So he definitely can play guard. No draft expert thinks otherwise. And Pouncey's teammate Gilbert also can play both the Tackle and Guard spot.


So I think those two might just be more on the steelers radar then the guys you want. But hey, just my opinion.

[LLT]

But LLT, Styles make players to. Cannon's lack of good movement would be a problem in our offense cause Ben tends to never stay in the pocket, nor is he as effective. And that's where Cannon would be a liability. Which is why the steelers have not even talked with him. Same goes for Moffitt. In a straigh zone-blocking scheme he might be effective. But for our line, he would be a disaster. As for Hudson being a Center more then a guard. He played guard for 2 straight seasons before this one winning the best O-Linemen of the year award, and grading out in those 2 seasons at 88 %..higher then any other O-Linemen the past 7 seasons. So he definitely can play guard. No draft expert thinks otherwise. And Pouncey's teammate Gilbert also can play both the Tackle and Guard spot.


So I think those two might just be more on the steelers radar then the guys you want. But hey, just my opinion.

Yes Hudson played Guard in College....and A.Q. Shipley was the Remington award winner his senior year. Hudson will get drafted early by a team like the Bears or the 49ers, where his size fits their scheme as a center . We dont need a center and at 6'2 299 lbs he doesnt fit our profile of a OG.

The ceiling on players like Cannon and Gilbert are placed so high by NFL Scouts because their skills translate well to the pro game. Other players skills may not translate well due to lack of size or strength (especially if it appears that their frame cant take on much more mass then they already possess)