Draft Value Board

[LLT]

I talk about my personal draft board and had considered posting it, but wasnt sure if it something that everyone is interested in.

More or less.... I take each position and make "little notes" about each player. After I have every position ranked, I then break them down by what round I think they may be drafted, based on factors like:

1) Combine/Pro-day measurables (comparitive)
2) Production number (i.e... TFL + Sacks divided by games started)
3) Power number (i.e... Vertical + Broadjump + Reps)
4) Character/maturity (subjective)
5) Years of production (looking for more than one year for round one prospects)
6) Level of competition (small school vs big school)
7) Depth of position in draft (for teams that may reach)

I then look at team needs with the understanding that we should never reach for a player, but rather use the team needs chart to determine between two players with equal value.

This gives me a pretty good idea of BPA when the Steelers are up to draft.


Here is a little bit of what I do...

QB's (ratings based on abiity, not draft position)

1 Blaine Gabbert, Missouri 6'4 234: Low Risk/High Reward prospect. (Top 15)
2 Cam Newton, Auburn 6'5 248: Great measurables/Only 1 year of real experience. (Top 15)
3 Ryan Mallett, Arkansas 6'7 253: Character and maturity issues/Extremely talented. (1-2 might be taken by team not concerned with character..Bengals)
4 Christian Ponder, Florida St 6'2 229: Draft Board Riser/Surgeries to throwing arm. (1-2 might be a late 1st rounder)
5 Colin Kaepernick, Nevada 6'5 233: NCAA record setter/Lacks a long pass. (Late 1st/Early 2nd)
6 Jake Locker, Washington 6'3 231: Looks the part/Low passing percentage. (May go anywhere between picks 20-45)
7 Andy Dalton, TCU 6'2 215: Tough and hard-working/Comes from spread offence. (Late 2nd/early 3rd rounder)
8 Pat Devlin, Delaware 6'3 225: Highest pass completion rating/Small school prospect. (3rd rounder)
9 Greg McElroy, Alabama 6'2 220: Smart and accurate/Recovering from hand surgery. (3-4 rounder, could climb before draft)
10 Ricky Stanzi, Iowa 6'4 223: Great size,good release/Throws into traffic. (4th-5th rounder)


Other:

Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech 6'1 217 (tweener, who ran a 4.47...might have to move to WR, if not...stature might make a 5-6 rounder)
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin 6'2 212 (Worth a shot in the late 6th to 7th round)
Taylor Potts, Texas Tech 6'4 220 (Size will help his draft status, but has bad footwork...6th-7th round)
Nathan Enderle, QB Idaho 6'4 240 (Quick release with a slight hitch, reads defenses well but accuracy and arm strength will hurt his draft placement...7th round)
T.J. Yates, QB North Carolina 6'3 219 (Tough and competitive but lacks arm strength...7th round)
Adam Weber, QB Minnesota 6'1 211 (Quick release but horrible mechanics..project QB ..7th round)

It would take some time to transcribe all of it...but if their is interest I will be happy to do so. Just let me know.

[Aussie_steeler]

The notes look great Perry. I think they would be awesome as a resource.

However I believe time is precious to all of us and I am sure that you could use that time more productively with your family ( unless you can sneek time in at work to get it done)

I am really keen to see who makes the pre-draft interview list and who makes the local visit list. There are some good Penn, Pitt and West Virginia prospects this year that will save the FO quite a few interviews from the designated 30. Maybe you could post your notes for the interviewee's as they become available.

[LLT]

You have a point

It might be better if I just give out what information i have accumulated as it comes up in discussion.

[LLT]

4 Christian Ponder, Florida St 6'2 229: Draft Board Riser/Surgeries to throwing arm. (1-2 might be a late 1st rounder)

Ponder could sneak into the 1st round according to Mayock
3/12/2011 12:32:52 PM
theredzone.org


Mike Mayock of NFL Network believes Florida State QB Christian Ponder could "sneak into the first round" after an impressive offseason.
http://www.theredzone.org/BlogDescri...k/Default.aspx

Seriously...Mayock is stealing my "stuff".

I need an attorney!!!!

[Texasteel]

Seriously...Mayock is stealing my "stuff".

I need an attorney!!!!

You need your own show. I swear, I could pick 5 people off this board that would make more sense than the guys on NFL Network, or ESPN.

[LLT]

You need your own show. I swear, I could pick 5 people off this board that would make more sense than the guys on NFL Network, or ESPN.

LOL!!! You ready to start our own gig?

[Texasteel]

I think there are going to be two or three teams at the top of the 2nd round that will still be looking for a QB. If someone wants Ponder and gets a little nervous about the teams in front of them that 31st pick might look pretty good. We could be sitting with a high 2nd and a 4th, and I believe that might be enough to end up with Dowling, and Ijalana or Cannon, that would be the two biggest needs filled by the BAP. Now if all the other clubs will just cooperate.

[Aussie_steeler]

I think there are going to be two or three teams at the top of the 2nd round that will still be looking for a QB. If someone wants Ponder and gets a little nervous about the teams in front of them that 31st pick might look pretty good. We could be sitting with a high 2nd and a 4th, and I believe that might be enough to end up with Dowling, and Ijalana or Cannon, that would be the two biggest needs filled by the BAP. Now if all the other clubs will just cooperate.

With the new draft format ( round 1 on the first day only) I think the #31 & #32 picks are going to become like gold. If people get another day to reset their draft boards it makes for easier picking in the first few picks of round 2. In the game of poker that the draft has become I can see teams desperate to get into the bottom end of the first round to overpay for their man.

I see Denver sitting their with 2-4, 2-14 and 3-3 as a team that could really have a crack at getting back into the first round. Teams are going to have to overpay on the draft trade value chart to get their man. I could really see Denver having a look at getting back into the first through a trade with a team like the steelers. Swap the 1 -31 for 2 - 14 and 3 - 3. This would allow Denver to pick twice in 6 picks ( 1 -31 and 2 -4) and be guaranteed of getting three studs in the first 36 picks. With a rookie cap this would be an ideal scenario for the broncos.

I know it not the steelers way but having 2-14, 2-31, 3-3 and 3 - 31 would allow a scenario like

2-14 - Rahim Moore if he is still available. If not then I could see Brandon Burton taken here. You cant guarantee that he would be available at 2-31. Other candidates that you could consider at this pick would be kyle Rudolph, Marcus Cannon.

2-31 - If you land Rahim Moore then you miss Brandon Burton. I could then see Ras I Dowling, Davon House, Johnny Patrick or Chimdi Chekwa being the pick. If you got Burton then you can target players on the next teir mention below.

3 -3 - Here you get a DE, NT or TE Allen Bailey, Kenrick Ellis, Luke Stocker, DJ Williams or Jarvis jenkins

3-31 - now at this spot you can overpay to get your guy. If you want barksdale or hairston then you have covered your other glaring holes.


It isnt ever going to happen, its fun to speculate and you really could land a BPA who has almost dropped a full round.

[Texasteel]

It isnt ever going to happen, its fun to speculate and you really could land a BPA who has almost dropped a full round.

That's why we're here ain't it. I mean isn't it.

[LLT]

I know it not the steelers way but having 2-14, 2-31, 3-3 and 3 - 31 would allow a scenario like

2-14 - Rahim Moore if he is still available. If not then I could see Brandon Burton taken here. You cant guarantee that he would be available at 2-31. Other candidates that you could consider at this pick would be kyle Rudolph, Marcus Cannon.

2-31 - If you land Rahim Moore then you miss Brandon Burton. I could then see Ras I Dowling, Davon House, Johnny Patrick or Chimdi Chekwa being the pick. If you got Burton then you can target players on the next teir mention below.

3 -3 - Here you get a DE, NT or TE Allen Bailey, Kenrick Ellis, Luke Stocker, DJ Williams or Jarvis jenkins

3-31 - now at this spot you can overpay to get your guy. If you want barksdale or hairston then you have covered your other glaring holes.


It isnt ever going to happen, its fun to speculate and you really could land a BPA who has almost dropped a full round.

Hmmm unless we package 2-31 and 3-3 to move back u[p to the 18-20 pick in the 2nd round....giving us the 2-14...2-18...and 3-3 picks.

Which "might" land us Cannon, Dowling, and Ijalana

[Aussie_steeler]

In the past the steelers have valued extra picks in the 3rd.

This year I would like to see an aggressive move to get into the middle of the 2nd round.

Thats where the CB of the future will be found.

Cannon, Dowling, DE and then Hairston (in the 4th) would fly with me

[Texasteel]

Hmmm unless we package 2-31 and 3-3 to move back u[p to the 18-20 pick in the 2nd round....giving us the 2-14...2-18...and 3-3 picks.

Which "might" land us Cannon, Dowling, and Ijalana

2 - 31 and 3-3 should move us up into the 2 - 5 area I'm thinking that is what it will take to get Dowling, 2 - 14 should land Cannon or Ijalana, and that is all I am after with this trade. That would help our CB situation and our OG, or RT should Colon walk. I'm not really comfortable waiting till 2 - 14 to get Dowling. Now if we can only find a couple of trade partners.

[LLT]

2 - 31 and 3-3 should move us up into the 2 - 5 area I'm thinking that is what it will take to get Dowling, 2 - 14 should land Cannon or Ijalana, and that is all I am after with this trade. That would hell our CB situation and our OG, or RT should Colon walk. I'm not really comfortable waiting till 2 - 14 to get Dowling. Now if we can only find a couple of trade partners.

My predicition is still that Dowling moves into the bottom of the 1st before all is said and done....but as of now he is still considered a late 2nd rounder.

[Texasteel]

My predicition is still that Dowling moves into the bottom of the 1st before all is said and done....but as of now he is still considered a late 2nd rounder.

Call me a pessimist buddy, but I have a feeling that if he does move back into the 1st round, he will move right past us. Like we've never seen that before.

[LLT]

Call me a pessimist buddy, but I have a feeling that if he does move back into the 1st round, he will move right past us. Like we've never seen that before.

Ugh...dont remind me.

[Chidi29]

Call me a pessimist buddy, but I have a feeling that if he does move back into the 1st round, he will move right past us. Like we've never seen that before.

Especially in the likely case the top corners are long gone and a team in the late first round, say Baltimore at 26, decides to reach a little bit knowing it'll be awhile before they're on the clock again.

[Texasteel]

Especially in the likely case the top corners are long gone and a team in the late first round, say Baltimore at 26, decides to reach a little bit knowing it'll be awhile before they're on the clock again.

That is exactly what I was thinking bud.

[Steeldude]

if teams are smart they will stay away from newton until at least the 4th round.

[LLT]

LLT's 2011 Big Board
(Alphabetical-By Round)

Early 1st Round
Bowers, Da'Quan DE Clemson
Dareus, Marcell DT Alabama
Fairley, Nick DT Auburn
Green, A.J. WR Georgia
Peterson, Patrick CB LSU
Quinn, Robert DE North Carolina
Miller, Von LB Texas A&M

Early/Mid 1st Round
Amukamara, Prince CB Nebraska
Gabbert, Blaine QB Missouri
Jones, Julio WR Alabama
Smith, Aldon DE Missouri
Watt, J.J. DE Wisconsin

Mid 1st Round
Castonzo, Anthony OT Boston College
Clayborn, Adrian DE Iowa
Jordan, Cameron DE California
Smith, Tyron OT USC

Mid/Late 1st Round
Carimi, Gabe OT Wisconsin
Ingram, Mark RB Alabama
Kerrigan, Ryan DE Purdue
Newton, Cameron QB Auburn
Solder, Nate OT Colorado
Houston, Justin DE Georgia

Late 1st Round
Ayers, Akeem LB UCLA
Heyward, Cameron DE Ohio St.
Leshoure, Mikel RB Illinois
Liuget, Corey DT Illinois
Ponder, Christian QB Florida St.
Pouncey, Michael OG Florida
Sherrod, Derek OT Mississippi St.
Taylor, Phil DT Baylor
Smith, Jimmy CB Colorado
Wilkerson, Muhammed. DT Temple
Williams, Aaron CB Texas

Early 2nd Round
Harris, Brandon CB Miami (FL)
House, Davon CB New Mexico St
Ijalana, Benjamin OG Villanova
Kaepernick, Colin QB Nevada
Paea, Stephen DT Oregon St
Rudolph, Kyle TE Notre Dame
Sheard, Jabaal DE Pittsburgh
Smith, Torrey WR Maryland
Watkins, Danny OG Baylor
Williams, Ryan RB Virginia Tech

Mid 2nd Round
Austin, Marvin DT North Carolina
Brown, Curtis CB Texas
Carter, Bruce LB North Carolina
Randall Cobb - WR, Kentucky
Hudson, Rodney OC Florida St.
Locker, Jake QB Washington
Mallett, Ryan QB Arkansas
Moore, Rahim S UCLA
Reed, Brooks DE Arizona
Wisniewski, Stefen OC Penn St.

Late 2nd Round
Acho, Sam DE Texas
Bailey, Allen DE Miami (FL)
Baldwin, Jonathan WR Pittsburgh
Ballard, Christian DE Iowa
Cannon, Marcus OG TCU
Cobb, Randall WR Kentucky
Dowling, Ras-I CB Virginia
Hankerson, Leonard WR Miami (FL)
Jernigan, Jerrel WR Troy
McDaniel, DeAndre S Clemson
Nevis, Drake DT LSU
Thomas, Daniel RB Kansas St.
Vereen, Shane RB California

Early 3rd Round
Carter, Quinton S Oklahoma
Dalton, Andy QB TCU
Franklin, Orlando OT Miami (FL)
Hunter, Kendall RB Oklahoma St.
Jenkins, Jarvis DT Clemson
Jones, Greg LB Michigan St.
Kendricks, Lance TE Wisconsin
Moch, Dontay LB Nevada
Powe, Jerrell DT Mississippi
Wilson, Martez LB Illinois

Mid 3rd Round
Boling, Clint OG Georgia
Burton, Brandon CB Utah
Carpenter, James OT Alabama
Ellis, Kenrick DT Hampton
Murray, DeMarco RB Oklahoma
Rodgers, Jacquizz RB Oregon St.
Sheppard, Kelvin LB LSU
Williams, Deunta S North Carolina
Young, Titus WR Boise St

Late 3rd Round
Casey, Jurrell DT USC
Culliver, Chris CB South Carolina
Doss, Tandon WR Indiana
Foster, Mason LB Washington
Gilbert, Marcus OT Florida
Irving, Nate LB N.C. State
McCarthy, Colin LB Miami (FL)
Moffitt, John OG Wisconsin
Patrick, Johnny CB Louisville
Pinkston, Jason OG Pittsburgh
Sands, Robert S West Virginia
Stocker, Luke TE Tennessee
Sturdivant, Quan LB North Carolina
Todman, Jordan RB Connecticut
Williams, D.J. TE Arkansas

[st33lersguy]

With the new draft format ( round 1 on the first day only) I think the #31 & #32 picks are going to become like gold. If people get another day to reset their draft boards it makes for easier picking in the first few picks of round 2. In the game of poker that the draft has become I can see teams desperate to get into the bottom end of the first round to overpay for their man.

I see Denver sitting their with 2-4, 2-14 and 3-3 as a team that could really have a crack at getting back into the first round. Teams are going to have to overpay on the draft trade value chart to get their man. I could really see Denver having a look at getting back into the first through a trade with a team like the steelers. Swap the 1 -31 for 2 - 14 and 3 - 3. This would allow Denver to pick twice in 6 picks ( 1 -31 and 2 -4) and be guaranteed of getting three studs in the first 36 picks. With a rookie cap this would be an ideal scenario for the broncos.

I know it not the steelers way but having 2-14, 2-31, 3-3 and 3 - 31 would allow a scenario like

2-14 - Rahim Moore if he is still available. If not then I could see Brandon Burton taken here. You cant guarantee that he would be available at 2-31. Other candidates that you could consider at this pick would be kyle Rudolph, Marcus Cannon.

2-31 - If you land Rahim Moore then you miss Brandon Burton. I could then see Ras I Dowling, Davon House, Johnny Patrick or Chimdi Chekwa being the pick. If you got Burton then you can target players on the next teir mention below.

3 -3 - Here you get a DE, NT or TE Allen Bailey, Kenrick Ellis, Luke Stocker, DJ Williams or Jarvis jenkins

3-31 - now at this spot you can overpay to get your guy. If you want barksdale or hairston then you have covered your other glaring holes.


It isnt ever going to happen, its fun to speculate and you really could land a BPA who has almost dropped a full round.

That would be a decent idea if we had a big need for a TE

[LLT]

That would be a decent idea if we had a big need for a TE

We do.

Spaeth isnt the blocker that we need when we run the two TE sets. In fact, he is a below average blocker. He isnt used much as a pass catching TE...so if we could find a mid round TE that could actually blocka and had some ability to run pass routes it could open up a whole set of plays that are denied to us because of Spaeths deficiencies.

[steeldevil]

I can't see us picking Kyle Rudolph. He is a pass catching TE from what I've seen. If we were to pick a TE it would be one that specializes in blocking.

[LLT]

I can't see us picking Kyle Rudolph. He is a pass catching TE from what I've seen. If we were to pick a TE it would be one that specializes in blocking.

There is no way that we would even consider Rudolph. He will be considered a late 1st/early 2nd round prospect on a lot of teams boards, but I would doubt that that the Steelers have him that high on their board.

[steeldevil]

Exactly. Probably the best TE in the draft but not somone we would consider because we already have Miller and the asking price on Rudolph would be a 2nd rounder. We would not make that pick even if we did trade down out of the first and picked up 2 extra 2nd rounders or 1 extra 2nd and 1 extra 3rd. I don't think BPA applies here.