By Carl Bialik
The 7-9 Seattle Seahawks, who have the good fortune to play in the NFL’s worst division, are the first below-average NFL team to make the playoffs since the Arizona Cardinals won the same division two years ago. Arizona went on to win three playoff games and lead the Super Bowl late in the game. Can Seattle match that feat?



It’s not likely, mainly because Seattle is a lot worse than Arizona was. Those Cardinals were 9-7, with a +1 point differential. Sure, that was inflated by the weak competition in the NFC West, where Arizona was a perfect 6-0. After adjusting for margin of victory and schedule strength, Arizona was 1.9 points worse than average, according to the Simple Rating System (SRS), good for 21st of 32 teams in the league. But Arizona did have a major strength — offense, particularly the Kurt Warner-led passing game. Arizona was seventh in the NFL in offensive SRS, tied for third in points scored, fourth in yards and second in passing yards.

Seattle this year has struggled on both sides of the ball, and benefited from an even weaker NFC West, which had four of the six worst teams in the league. The numbers say Seattle was worse than two teams in its putrid division, St. Louis and San Francisco. Further, it was the third-worst team in the NFL, better only than Arizona — struggling in its first year after Warner’s retirement — and 2-14 Carolina. The Seahawks are the fifth-worst offensive team and third-worst defensive team in the NFL, according to SRS. They rank 23rd in points scored and 28th in yards gained, while yielding the eighth-most points and the sixth-most yards. Just about the only bright spots are faint glimmers on special teams: Seattle is above average in yards per punt and kickoff return, and wasn’t one of the 11 teams to miss an extra-point kick this season.

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http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2011/0...ough-playoffs/