How have we not clinched a playoff spot?

[CPanther95]

I've tried tons of different scenarios here:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

and I can't get the Steelers to drop out of the #6 spot. I've tried various 3 way ties, tossed in some tie games - even threw in as many losses as possible for any team that we beat to mess up our "strength of victory" tiebreaker.

I know it's counter-intuitive to try and knock the Steelers out of the playoffs, but if there's anyone out there that likes puzzles and has a basic knowledge of NFL tie breaking procedures - I'd like to see if you can come up with something.

[Dino 6 Rings]

If we lose our next 3 and everyone else wins out...we are out.

That's how.

[HollywoodSteel]

If we lose our next 3 and everyone else wins out...we are out.

That's how.

It's not that simple. I too am finding it hard to find a scenario in which we are eliminated. Even if we lose out, it looks like we have tie breakers against all the other teams that could end up 10-6. Remember, if the Ravens over take us they'll win the division. The Jets get the first wild card and I can't figure out a scenario where we don't get the other one. Maybe it has to do with ties. I haven't tried that.

[HollywoodSteel]

Well, her are the only ways we could have clinched a spot this week:


Pittsburgh wins + Jacksonville loss or tie + New England win or tie + Miami Dolphins loss or tie
Pittsburgh win + Indianapolis loss or tie + New England win or tie + Miami loss or tie
Pittsburgh win + Indianapolis loss or tie + New England win or tie + Oakland loss or tie + San Diego loss or tie
Pittsburgh win + Indianapolis loss or tie + Miami loss or tie + Oakland loss or tie
Pittsburgh tie + Miami loss or tie + Oakland loss or tie + San Diego loss or tie + Indianapolis loss

Obviously none of those scenarios happened so mathematically it's possible to still be eliminated, but trying to figure it out is making my head hurt. And Frankly, if we lose to the Panthers we don't deserve to go to the playoffs anyway.

[Butch]

Just keep winning and let the rest take care of itself.

I aint scared!!!

[steelreserve]

I think it works like this:

1. We lose all our remaining games to finish 10-6
2. Ravens win AFC North at 11-5 or better
3. Jets pass NE to win the AFC East
4. JAX finishes 11-5 to win AFC South
5. Chiefs or Chargers win AFC West (doesn't matter which)
6. NE gets first wild card at 11-5
7. Colts win out to finish 10-6, tie us for last wild card
7a. .First tiebreaker - head-to-head, n/a
7b. Second tiebreaker - conference record, tie @ 8-4
7c. Third tiebreaker - record vs. common opponents (Raiders, Titans, Bengals, Patriots), both 4-1
7c. Fourth tiebreaker - "Strength of victory" -- the combined winning percentage of the teams you've beaten.

I think this could also technically happen if IND wins their division at 10-6 and JAX ties us for the wild card, depending. We can lose that last tiebreaker if teams we've beaten do exceedingly awful over the final 2 weeks, and teams Indy (or Jacksonville) have beaten do very well. Basically, if teams we didn't play like the Cowboys, Texans, Broncos, Redskins, Giants and Chiefs all go on a tear ... and teams we played but IND/JAX didn't all do poorly, like Tampa Bay, Atlanta, plus Buffalo, Cleveland or Baltimore (depending on whether we're tied with JAX or IND), that could lose us that battle.

Basically, it's almost impossible for any of the above to happen.

[CPanther95]

I think it works like this:

1. We lose all our remaining games to finish 10-6
2. Ravens win AFC North at 11-5 or better
3. Jets pass NE to win the AFC East
4. JAX finishes 11-5 to win AFC South
5. Chiefs or Chargers win AFC West (doesn't matter which)
6. NE gets first wild card at 11-5
7. Colts win out to finish 10-6, tie us for last wild card
7a. .First tiebreaker - head-to-head, n/a
7b. Second tiebreaker - conference record, tie @ 8-4
7c. Third tiebreaker - record vs. common opponents (Raiders, Titans, Bengals, Patriots), both 4-1
7c. Fourth tiebreaker - "Strength of victory" -- the combined winning percentage of the teams you've beaten.

I think this could also technically happen if IND wins their division at 10-6 and JAX ties us for the wild card, depending. We can lose that last tiebreaker if teams we've beaten do exceedingly awful over the final 2 weeks, and teams Indy (or Jacksonville) have beaten do very well. Basically, if teams we didn't play like the Cowboys, Texans, Broncos, Redskins, Giants and Chiefs all go on a tear ... and teams we played but IND/JAX didn't all do poorly, like Tampa Bay, Atlanta, plus Buffalo, Cleveland or Baltimore (depending on whether we're tied with JAX or IND), that could lose us that battle.

Basically, it's almost impossible for any of the above to happen.

JAX and INDY play each other. There's no way for JAX to finish 11-5 and for INDY to do any better than 9-7.

I've tried having all the teams we've beaten completely tank, and still nothing.

[CPanther95]

If we lose our next 3 and everyone else wins out...we are out.

That's how.

31 teams can't all win out. Who would they be playing against?

[Edman]

Beat the Jets next week and we're in. Winning next week clinches no matter what.

If the Ravens lose tonight, beating the Jets next week wins the AFC North.

But the keyword here is WIN.

[Bluecoat96]

Hey...as long as we're still in the BCS running, I'm happy.

[hotrodder07]

I can't figure out a way to get out of the playoffs. I'm guessing it has to be something to do with strength of victory or something like that. Pretty much every possible thing would have to go wrong for us to miss the playoffs at this point. I just can't figure out what exactly has to go wrong...?

[CPanther95]

Beat the Jets next week and we're in. Winning next week clinches no matter what.

If the Ravens lose tonight, beating the Jets next week wins the AFC North.

But the keyword here is WIN.

There's thousands of ways to clinch - the hard part is finding how we haven't already.

I finally found a combination that works:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine/_/factor/powerranking/results/301219023~2~301219017~1~301226002~2~310102017~1~31 0102005~1~301223023~2~301219011~1~301216024~1~3012 19015~2~301219026~1~301219013~2~301219027~2~301226 005~2~301226027~2~301226015~2~301227001~2~31010200 1~2~301226013~2~310102012~1~301213034~1~310102007~ 1~301226007~1~310102034~2~310102028~1~301219006~2~ 301219033~2

It involves most of the teams we beat tanking, and the teams that Jacksonville beat going on a tear. Including Denver winning out and Washington winning 2 of 3 (all except vs JAX). In this scenario, if San Diego beats Denver, they win the #6 and Pittsburgh and Jacksonville are out.

Oddly, a Ravens win tonight will prevent Jacksonville from beating us in the tiebreakers. Not that anyone is going to root for the Ravens in case we go 0-3.

[polamalubeast]

If the Steelers miss the playoffs, its going to be the biggest collapse in NFL history!

[steelreserve]

JAX and INDY play each other. There's no way for JAX to finish 11-5 and for INDY to do any better than 9-7.

I've tried having all the teams we've beaten completely tank, and still nothing.

You're right -- I think, then that for the Jags/Colts to both get in over us, Indy would have to win the next game, they'd tie for the division at 10-6, and then the second-place team there would have to beat us on tiebreakers. Or basically the same thing would have to happen with the second-place team in the AFC West, which is the scenario you figured out. And it wouldn't matter whether the Jets or Patriots win the AFC East; if we lost out, either one would have the advantage over us.

[CPanther95]

You're right -- I think, then that for the Jags/Colts to both get in over us, Indy would have to win the next game, they'd tie for the division at 10-6, and then the second-place team there would have to beat us on tiebreakers. Or basically the same thing would have to happen with the second-place team in the AFC West, which is the scenario you figured out. And it wouldn't matter whether the Jets or Patriots win the AFC East; if we lost out, either one would have the advantage over us.

See the link 2 posts up.

[steelreserve]

See the link 2 posts up.

Right, that's one way. I was just wondering if there's a way that would have San Diego and KC both making it over us, and leaving out either JAX or Indy. Probably. Not that it's any more likely than this.

[CPanther95]

Right, that's one way. I was just wondering if there's a way that would have San Diego and KC both making it over us, and leaving out either JAX or Indy. Probably. Not that it's any more likely than this.

Go to that link to Week 17 and change the San Diego/Denver game. If San Diego wins that game, they beat us and JAX in strength of victory and get the #6.

[steelreserve]

Aha! I knew there was a way. Probably not by this time next week though, regardless of whether we win or lose.

I'm going to have a lot of fun with this figuring out exactly what the worst record is that would allow someone to win the NFC West. I wonder if it's possible to get someone in there with 6 wins.

edit: dang. No it's not. Either STL or SEA has to have at least 7 wins, unless they tie each other at the end of the season. Oh well. 7-9 would still be pretty wretched. That's what I'm rooting for.

[CPanther95]

Aha! I knew there was a way. Probably not by this time next week though, regardless of whether we win or lose.

I'm going to have a lot of fun with this figuring out exactly what the worst record is that would allow someone to win the NFC West. I wonder if it's possible to get someone in there with 6 wins.

edit: dang. No it's not. Either STL or SEA has to have at least 7 wins, unless they tie each other at the end of the season. Oh well. 7-9 would still be pretty wretched. That's what I'm rooting for.

Yeah, I've been playing around with all sorts of oddball scenarios.

> I would have saved a lot of time if I realized sooner that the "Tiebreakers" link at the top next to "INSTRUCTIONS" wasn't a list of tiebreaking procedures and was actually giving you what tiebreakers were applied in your custom scenario. Makes it much easier to see what needs to be tweaked.

[Delraich]

Oddly, a Ravens win tonight will prevent Jacksonville from beating us in the tiebreakers. Not that anyone is going to root for the Ravens in case we go 0-3.

So have we clinched?

[CPanther95]

So have we clinched?

No, SD could still beat us in the tiebreaker.

But it's down to the point that we could clinch before we take the field at 4pm. *** Assuming I haven't missed some other oddball scenario *** - we just need 2 wins by teams we beat (or 2 losses by teams SD beat - or 1 of each) to get the strength of victory - and we only need that in the event of a 3 way tie with JAX and SD.

If JAX beats the Colts, we would win the tiebreak against SD because of our record against common opponents (they have 2 losses against the Raiders). Common opponent tiebreak doesn't apply against both JAX and SD because we don't have a minimum of 4 common opponents with both other teams.

[BigNastyDefense]

Basically, we haven't mathematically clinches a playoff spot yet, however in reality we will be in the playoffs, most likely as the AFC North Champions.