As some of the regulars here would know, I have a tendancy to over analyse the draft process.
(As do a couple of other members).
With your help I would like to see where my current thought patterns sit in relation to yours.
My first consideration is the First round draft trends of the last few years. What might they be
2010 - Maurkice Pouncey OC Junior ( 21yrs)
2009 - Ziggy Hood DE Senior ( 22 yrs)
2008 - Rashard Mendenhall RB Junior ( 21 yrs)
2007 - Lawrence Timmons LB Junior ( 20 / 21 yrs)
2006 - Santonio Holmes WR Junior ( 21/22 yrs) .................... I could be out with the ages
The basic trends appear to be young players, who in most circumstances have left as juniors.
To me this suggests that Colbert likes to get young, physical specimens that the coaching staff can take their time with to mould into the steeler way.
Usually it takes 3 years to be a guaranteed starter and most are nearing the end of their first contract. The value to resign is usually not astronomical.
The second observation seems to be an alternation between offensive and defensive players. ( if I add in Heath Miller for 2005 then it destroys this observation)
The third observation is that the steelers usually sit and wait for their player to land in their lap.
My other casual observation is that the steelers usually like to draft to fill a hole that is going to appear in approximately 2 - 3 years in the starting lineup. To coincide with the expiry of a starters (who is over 30) contract.
This is how I am currently thinking (out loud for you)
I am currently leaning towards the 2011 first round draft pick being either a
1. DE ( to cover the retirement of Aaron Smith)
2. CB ( to cover the possible loss of Ike Taylor)
3. NT ( to cover the loss of Casey Hampton and Chris Hoke to retirement)
4. OT ( to cover the possible loss of Willie Colon and the extreme lack of depth)
5. ILB ( to cover the loss of James Farrior and possibly Keyaron Fox)
The juniors on my watchlist therefore are:
1. Defensive End
a. Marcell Dareus ( no chance)
b. JJ Watt
c. Jared Crick
2. Corner Back
a. Patrick Peterson ( no chance)
b. Aaron Williams
c. Brandon Harris
3. Nose Tackle
a. No Idea?????
4. Offensive Tackle / Offensive Guard
a. Matt Reynolds ( little bit older due to mormon mission - that might rule him out)
b. Nate Potter
5. Middle Linebacker
a. Martez Wilson
b. Courtney Upshaw
In order I would have to go
1. CB Patrick Peterson ( not realistic. A shutdown corner – I can dream cant I)
2. DE Marcel Dareus ( not realistic – but he would be an awesome fit)
3. CB Aaron Williams ( now we can probably begin to hold some hope)
4. DE JJ Watt -- could he be the next Aaron Smith or is he just Adam Carriker???
5. OT Matt Reynolds -- been pimpin him for a while but how old is he???
What are you thinking????