Justin Fields case for QB1

[Born2Steel]

You are right. The story of the NFL this season has really been injuries. Several high profile teams are underperforming because of them and other teams are just not who they thought they would be because key guys are hurt.

I heard this morning on the radio that McCaffrey is dealing with both Achilles right now. That's huge!

Malik Willis is not going to lead the Packers to the promised land. I don't think Darnold, Rufolph, Dalton, Minshew, Cousins, Flacco, or any of the other backups currently playing will either.

[DesertSteel]

I heard this morning on the radio that McCaffrey is dealing with both Achilles right now. That's huge!

Malik Willis is not going to lead the Packers to the promised land. I don't think Darnold, Rufolph, Dalton, Minshew, Cousins, Flacco, or any of the other backups currently playing will either.

I’d hardly call Cousins a backup and I’d give Darnold the best chance of everyone you listed.

[Born2Steel]

I’d hardly call Cousins a backup and I’d give Darnold the best chance of everyone you listed.

True that Cousins is not the backup. But they drafted Penix for long term. I feel it's very similar to our situation with Wilson and Fields. Only Wilson got hurt in TC. I still don't think either will lead their team to the promised land.

[DesertSteel]

True that Cousins is not the backup. But they drafted Penix for long term. I feel it's very similar to our situation with Wilson and Fields. Only Wilson got hurt in TC. I still don't think either will lead their team to the promised land.

Chiefs are winning the Super Bowl.

[Born2Steel]

Chiefs are winning the Super Bowl.

3-peat!!! Something Brady couldn't accomplish.

[86WARD]

Darnold is the starter and was before McCarthy got hurt. He’s probably playing the best through 4 weeks.

[Rocky Mtn.]

3-peat!!! Something Brady couldn't accomplish.

I wouldn't get too excited about that. The Steelers couldn't do it either.

[DesertSteel]

Darnold is the starter and was before McCarthy got hurt. He’s probably playing the best through 4 weeks.

Two of the best quarterbacks in the league right now are two ex-Jets busts — Geno and Darnold. Who’s next, Zach Wilson??

[Voice of Reason]

Chiefs are winning the Super Bowl.

Assuming Mahomes doesn't get hurt too.

[86WARD]

And the Jets sit there with Aaron Rodgers festering and ruining any chemistry that team had…lol

[DesertSteel]

PFF score and breakdown from PPG.

Justin Fields (78.1 overall passing grade) – While the discourse around the 25-year-old QB remains polarized, the data is not. It sees Fields as having the best four-week stretch to open a season by a Steelers quarterback since 2015, when Ben Roethlisberger was the No. 1 rated QB in the NFL by PFF metrics. In no subsequent season did Roethlisberger have a higher adjusted completion percentage, which factors out drops, than Fields’ 82.0. In no subsequent season did he have fewer than Fields’ one turnover-worthy play. In 2016, he had eight, then six in 2017, nine in 2018, three in injury-shortened 2019, two in 2020 and eight in 2021. And only twice — in 2016 and 2018 — did he have more than Fields’ six big-time throws, graded as among the best in the NFL in a given week. Granted, Roethlisberger was better at getting the ball downfield consistently. He had a higher average depth of target than Fields’ 6.7 yards in each of his final six NFL seasons. But that aggression came at the cost of more turnovers and less accuracy, which dragged Roethlisberger’s grade below Fields’ in each of the four-week spans studied. And in case you’re wondering, no, Fields’ metrics are not propped up by his efforts in the running game. Roethlisberger was actually a higher-rated runner in 2016-18, before his 2019 arm injury. Fields is grading better on the merits of his work in the passing game, a fact that’s hard to ignore as fans and pundits debate whether he should keep the starting job over Russell Wilson.

[Mojouw]

Pfffffff.

Actual on field reasons and analysis?

Who cares! How does Wilson make you feel after watching highlights on YouTube?

That's the real test.

Sent from my SM-T220 using Tapatalk

[Steeler-in-west]

The dreaded highlights, cant mention those. Even though they do give you an idea of how the Qb is making plays; under duress or not, how tight the windows are or the number of highlights per game. About stats, one important item is CAY, completed air yards.

[Dwinsgames]

The dreaded highlights, cant mention those. Even though they do give you an idea of how the Qb is making plays; under duress or not, how tight the windows are or the number of highlights per game. About stats, one important item is CAY, completed air yards.

but they show zero screw ups , zero missed reads when they take the 6 yard pass but wide open and not a guy within 10 yards of him in right in front of his face 20 yards down field etc etc

[Steeler-in-west]

but they show zero screw ups , zero missed reads when they take the 6 yard pass but wide open and not a guy within 10 yards of him in right in front of his face 20 yards down field etc etc

true, so you also have to look at stats, including advanced stats, analysis run downs by bloggers, and a little checking on other teams websites gives good insight into what they who watch saw Russell Wilson weekly think. Outside of watching the games regularly, i think it gives a good picture

[Mojouw]

Anyone can look good in a highlight package. Got to see the good and the bad to form a complete picture.

In terms of CAY; In 2023 Wilson ranked below Kenny Pickett (.3 yards less) and Justin Fields (1.2 yards less). To be fair, so did Burrow and Mahomes.

An interesting side note: Wilson threw short of the sticks on 3rd down by the same measure as KP in 2023.

Here are the 2023 tables: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/p...ards-to-sticks

[Steeler-in-west]

CAY may not be the best stat. Total yards i think are more telling. Fields was 18th last year, this year about the same so far. Which is reflective, offense is still anything but explosive. Getting better? Showing signs of life? Compared to last year yes, which isn't saying alot.

[Mojouw]

CAY may not be the best stat. Total yards i think are more telling. Fields was 18th last year, this year about the same so far. Which is reflective, offense is still anything but explosive. Getting better? Showing signs of life? Compared to last year yes, which isn't saying alot.

I don't know if this is how you meant it....but it comes off that you tossed out CAY as "...an important stat..." and then when it did NOT back-up your impression(s) of Wilson and Fields, you picked another stat.

So I have to ask....are you just going to cherry pick data points or do you intend on having an open back and forth?

If I understand you correctly, you want the offense to be more explosive?

Let us take a look at 2023 (with the understanding that different teams/offenses so it is not a perfect projection):

Average Intended Air Yards: Fields 8.5....Wilson 7.5
We already covered completed air yards.

So Fields was throwing deeper than Wilson by both metrics in 2023 and he was throwing closer to the sticks on third down than Wilson was.

In 2024, Fields is down across the board in all categories. Except turnovers and completion percentage. How much of that is what the OC wants and how much of it is Fields being hesitant to let it rip? I do not know if there is a way to tell from stats alone. BUT I think we can put forth the following hypothesis based on the available data:
1. Justin Fields was the much more aggressive QB in 2023 when compared to Wilson.
2. Tomlin and Smith are prioritizing possession over explosiveness.
3. There is no available data/evidence that Wilson would be any more explosive than Fields in the 2024 Steelers offense.

What am I missing?

[86WARD]

QB1
965 Yards
68.6%
6 TTDs
5 INTs
69.7 Rating


QB2
975 Yards
70.6%
6 TTDs
1 INT
98.0 Rating

There's a clear cut winner there...lol

[Dwinsgames]

I'll just leave this hear and yall can make of it what ya want ...

[DesertSteel]

I'll just leave this hear and yall can make of it what ya want ...

I love it!

[Steeler-in-west]

I don't know if this is how you meant it....but it comes off that you tossed out CAY as "...an important stat..." and then when it did NOT back-up your impression(s) of Wilson and Fields, you picked another stat.

So I have to ask....are you just going to cherry pick data points or do you intend on having an open back and forth?

If I understand you correctly, you want the offense to be more explosive?

Let us take a look at 2023 (with the understanding that different teams/offenses so it is not a perfect projection):

Average Intended Air Yards: Fields 8.5....Wilson 7.5
We already covered completed air yards.

So Fields was throwing deeper than Wilson by both metrics in 2023 and he was throwing closer to the sticks on third down than Wilson was.

In 2024, Fields is down across the board in all categories. Except turnovers and completion percentage. How much of that is what the OC wants and how much of it is Fields being hesitant to let it rip? I do not know if there is a way to tell from stats alone. BUT I think we can put forth the following hypothesis based on the available data:
1. Justin Fields was the much more aggressive QB in 2023 when compared to Wilson.
2. Tomlin and Smith are prioritizing possession over explosiveness.
3. There is no available data/evidence that Wilson would be any more explosive than Fields in the 2024 Steelers offense.

What am I missing?

you’re off. I brought up total passing yards to see where fields ranks OVERALL. Last year he was at 22. This year, a little improvement at 18. Like ive said a bunch of time before, he’s doing his job. Had a nice game in the 2nd half despite the loss, but hardly setting the league on fire.

Despite being on a mediocre at best broncos team Russ still managed to throw 26 TD’s. He was by all accounts better than Fields last year. This year Fields has improved in a better system and should get better with the improvement of the line but Wilson would do well too. And i’d argue that he’d play better against the tougher defenses because of his experience and better ability to read defenses. I like him as our qb against Mahomes or Allen or Burrow and LJ, or Stroud. Fields has looked ok to good in this easy part of the schedule but i dont trust him to fair well against the playoff teams.

it comes down to what the steelers priority is this year: make a serious playoff run or develop Fields. I don’t think we can do both this year.

[Steeler-in-west]

I'll just leave this hear and yall can make of it what ya want ...

3 passing TD’s for Fields, 6 for Mahomes. Want to know how many rushing TD’s Mahomes had last year?

0. Cause he does’t need to make running a priority. And he knows running comes with a cost.

Mahomes is just warming up, guy probably hasn't gotten out of 1st gear. Fields is going full throttle just to stay off the bench.

[DesertSteel]

How many more points are passing touchdowns than rushing ones?

[Steeldude]

3 passing TD’s for Fields, 6 for Mahomes. Want to know how many rushing TD’s Mahomes had last year?

0. Cause he does’t need to make running a priority. And he knows running comes with a cost.

Mahomes is just warming up, guy probably hasn't gotten out of 1st gear. Fields is going full throttle just to stay off the bench.

I can't believe people actually think Fields is good.

[Mojouw]

you’re off. I brought up total passing yards to see where fields ranks OVERALL. Last year he was at 22. This year, a little improvement at 18. Like ive said a bunch of time before, he’s doing his job. Had a nice game in the 2nd half despite the loss, but hardly setting the league on fire.

Despite being on a mediocre at best broncos team Russ still managed to throw 26 TD’s. He was by all accounts better than Fields last year. This year Fields has improved in a better system and should get better with the improvement of the line but Wilson would do well too. And i’d argue that he’d play better against the tougher defenses because of his experience and better ability to read defenses. I like him as our qb against Mahomes or Allen or Burrow and LJ, or Stroud. Fields has looked ok to good in this easy part of the schedule but i dont trust him to fair well against the playoff teams.

it comes down to what the steelers priority is this year: make a serious playoff run or develop Fields. I don’t think we can do both this year.

This was not you then: "The dreaded highlights, cant mention those. Even though they do give you an idea of how the Qb is making plays; under duress or not, how tight the windows are or the number of highlights per game. About stats, one important item is CAY, completed air yards."

I am just trying to follow your chain of logic here. You threw out CAY as an important stat....and now you are saying that what you really meant was total passing yards. Is that correct? Why bring up CAY then at all?

I am going to make the leap that you are focused on scoring against quality defenses. Ok. I am not going to go game by game for the 2023 Broncos but I will point out the following:
1. Denver was 23/32 in first half points in 2023.
2. Denver was 13/32 in second half points in 2023.
3. Denver was 2nd in fourth quarter points in 2023.
4. Denver only won 8 games in 2023.

That leads to the conclusion that Russell Wilson racked up a big portion of yards/points in games his team was losing after the half and during 4th quarter garbage time.

Interestingly, Fields goes the other way. Higher in the rankings during the first half and fades in the second half and drops in the 4th quarter. Leads me to believe that as teams made adjustments to what Chicago was doing, he ran out of answers.

I am not sure there is much of basis for "by all accounts" Wilson was better last year. Who is making these accounts? Where is that evaluation coming from? I have read, watched, and listened to plenty of folks making the exact opposite account.

[DesertSteel]

I can't believe people actually think Fields is good.

I appreciate you coming out of your political section cave occasionally to grunt out your negativity.

[Dwinsgames]

3 passing TD’s for Fields, 6 for Mahomes. Want to know how many rushing TD’s Mahomes had last year?

0. Cause he does’t need to make running a priority. And he knows running comes with a cost.

Mahomes is just warming up, guy probably hasn't gotten out of 1st gear. Fields is going full throttle just to stay off the bench.

at the end of the day results are what matter and Fields is getting results .... I do not care how you get into the end zone ... just GET INTO the end zone

[86WARD]

I appreciate you coming out of your political section cave occasionally to grunt out your negativity.

Only liberals would support Justin Fields.

[Born2Steel]

If Justin Fields leaves for another team after this season, I will thank him for his production. But I will no longer care about what he does in the NFL unless he goes to a rival.