Playoff watch thread

[oneforthetoe]

Yes, very early for this. We could collapse down the stretch this year. We have four division games left. We could actually play well and lose all four. But, as I think the Steelers possibilities in playoffs, I'm off two very different minds. And I find that interesting.

On one hand, I agree with the majority here and around the NFL that with this offense they have no business in the playoffs. Add to that our secondary issues and I could easily see KC taking us down badly. Certainly, no team with this kind of offensive ineptitude is winning a Superbowl. It would be the 7th seal showing the end of the world is near.

On the other hand, the playoffs are about matchups. And sometimes we can be a tough out. As I look at the likely playoff teams, I'm trying to think what teams we could actually beat. The great teams (KC,) will slaughter us because we can't score enough points. However, because of the style the Steelers play, they can frustrate some good teams and pull out that ugly win. For hockey fans, we are like the old NJ Devils' trap - terrible to watch, but can frustrate good teams with potent offenses. Add to that the fact that there is a good chance a potential playoff opponent will be a division rival, where all logic goes out the window, and we could steal an ugly playoff win. That would be a bit ironic given the playoff losses to Denver and Jacksonville when we were so heavily favored and floundered.

Anyways, here is my analysis of present possible Steelers matchups :

1) KC - No chance
2) Miami/ Jacksonville - Almost no chance but for the fact that Miami and Tua have no playoff experience. The Jags do
have some playoff experience, but the Steelers did mange "uglify" the game earlier this year.
3) Buffalo - better chance if not a good one. Buffalo is a much better team than us - better QB. Still, we have always
matched up against them even when we are losing. I have always thought that all of our preparation for
Lamar that has helped us contain Allen's mobility.
4) Division Rivals - anything can happen in these games. Cleveland and Baltimore games are always ugly. The Bengal's
should overwhelm us but they are not quite the Bengals of the last few years yet.
5) Other teams - Think we would stand a good chance if the Chargers, Raiders or Jets, Texans (maybe not) got in.

Anyways we will see. In three or four weeks we could be on the outside looking in.

[ShadesOfSteel1172]

I'm still waiting for the major let down that is coming with like 4 losses in a row and finishing 8-9, 9-8 record. Playoffs??? Well, we know this team are pretenders. No shit at doing anything in the playoffs IF we make the playoffs.

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[Voice of Reason]

Miami/ Jacksonville - Almost no chance but for the fact that Miami and Tua have no playoff experience. The Jags do
have some playoff experience, but the Steelers did mange "uglify" the game earlier this year.

I still don't understand all this respect for Jacksonville. They didn't impress me at all when they played us. The great Trevor Lawrence only came up with 20 points despite his defense giving him the ball back time after time after time, and he wouldn't have even had 20 if the refs hadn't extended two or three failed drives with some tickey-tack penalties against the Steelers. The Jags are one of the teams I'd love to play in the playoffs.

[fansince'76]

I still don't understand all this respect for Jacksonville. They didn't impress me at all when they played us.

Agreed. They didn't show me anything either.

[pczach]

I'm still waiting for the major let down that is coming with like 4 losses in a row and finishing 8-9, 9-8 record. Playoffs??? Well, we know this team are pretenders. No shit at doing anything in the playoffs IF we make the playoffs.

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Look, it's not out of the question. This team has been finding ways to win and they have little room for error to pull these games out. The recent injuries are the kind of thing that can be the difference in some of these upcoming games. I'm hoping they can hold it together.

The good news is that the offensive line is playing better with Jones at RT. The running game has come along nicely the last couple weeks, and they now look like a team that is closer to being able what they want to do offensively.

Pickett needs to pick it up a little bit, and the players around him need to play better. DJ dropping that deep ball took points off the board, and penalties seem to kill good gains every week.

Get a little better job out of Canada, and things can start to click. They are showing signs.

Play action passing needs to be a bigger part of the offense. The numbers are off the charts compared to the plays without play action, and seem to be the path to getting over the top.

https://dkpittsburghsports.com/2023/...alysis-nfl-cdc

[Hawkman]

I'm still waiting for the major let down that is coming with like 4 losses in a row and finishing 8-9, 9-8 record. Playoffs??? Well, we know this team are pretenders. No shit at doing anything in the playoffs IF we make the playoffs.

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I’m not really getting your statement…..except that you think the Steelers suck. “ No shit at doing anything in the playoffs “? Never heard that expression before. Don’t lump everyone here believing this team, “are pretenders”. Fine if you believe that.

[Born2Steel]

This team relies on defense to keep games close and try to win in the 4th. The defense keeps taking injury hits, we may hit a losing streak. Not gonna predict that but it happened last season when TJ went out. The ILB and Minkah situations are worrisome.

[Hawkman]

This team relies on defense to keep games close and try to win in the 4th. The defense keeps taking injury hits, we may hit a losing streak. Not gonna predict that but it happened last season when TJ went out. The ILB and Minkah situations are worrisome.

Any injury update on Minkah?

[ShadesOfSteel1172]

I’m not really getting your statement…..except that you think the Steelers suck. “ No shit at doing anything in the playoffs “? Never heard that expression before. Don’t lump everyone here believing this team, “are pretenders”. Fine if you believe that.

My opinion, you are open to yours, I'm not gonna bash yours. Leave it at that.

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[ShadesOfSteel1172]

I’m not really getting your statement…..except that you think the Steelers suck. “ No shit at doing anything in the playoffs “? Never heard that expression before. Don’t lump everyone here believing this team, “are pretenders”. Fine if you believe that.

Let me rephrase, at least some of us in here think this team are pretenders and at this point this team would not be a very good playoff team without major improvements. Same type of team we have had in the last 10 years that's made the playoffs but maybe even worse.

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[fansince'76]

Looking at the NFL standings, there are a grand total of 4 teams (2 in the AFC and 2 in the NFC) with better records than the Steelers' 6-3 mark. There are 18 teams that are sitting at exactly .500 or worse.

Doesn't seem like anyone's exactly burning up the league at the moment. Who exactly are the "favorites" right now? Given their history, does anyone really think the 7-2 Lions are for real?

[Mojouw]

Looking at the NFL standings, there are a grand total of 4 teams (2 in the AFC and 2 in the NFC) with better records than the Steelers' 6-3 mark. There are 18 teams that are sitting at exactly .500 or worse.

Doesn't seem like anyone's exactly burning up the league at the moment. Who exactly are the "favorites" right now? Given their history, does anyone really think the 7-2 Lions are for real?

The Lions? Could very well be. Especially now that they are returning to health.

I agree that all teams have flaws and questions going into the stretch run. No doubt. And in the AFC it is a more turbulent and open race than most years.

BUT...I honestly can not think of a playoff team that has been outgained and almost outscored like the 2023 Steelers. And the ones I suspect might be close, the defense is typically totally overwhelming. Recent example here would be the 2018 DuckMason Steelers. This defense is far from overwhelming.

The upcoming division games and the Seahawks game should prove good tests of the playoff "readiness" of the 2023 Steelers. If they can make a good showing in those games, let alone win a few, then maybe they are progressing to the point that they can make some noise in the playoffs. But if they get ran off the field....

[Mojouw]

All the above being said....the Steelers have a decent chance of making it. Let us assume that 10 wins gets you in (typically it does). They need 4 more. Looking at the schedule, they "need" to make the Cards, Pats, and Colts games victories.

That would mean they only need to take 1 from the Browns, Bengals x2, Ravens, and Seahawks.

On paper....that seems kind of workable. But in reality....something dumb will happen.

[Born2Steel]

AFCN…KP, Burrow, LJ, Watson

AFCS…Levis, Stroud, Minshew, Lawrence

AFCE…Allen, Z. Wilson, Tua, Jones

AFCW…Mahomes, Herbert, R. Wilson, O’Connell

How many SB contender QBs on this list?

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

All the above being said....the Steelers have a decent chance of making it. Let us assume that 10 wins gets you in (typically it does). They need 4 more. Looking at the schedule, they "need" to make the Cards, Pats, and Colts games victories.

That would mean they only need to take 1 from the Browns, Bengals x2, Ravens, and Seahawks.

On paper....that seems kind of workable. But in reality....something dumb will happen.

Very much the math that I was looking at as well. I still think they need 1 more division win at least. There is a chance that they can finish 3rd in the AFC North and still make playoffs and we have to face the reality that it looks like the Ravens, Bengals and Browns are playing better overall football than the Steelers right now.

Still really enjoyable to see them in the mix, given the rebuild process, injuries and offense issues. As a fan its a lot better than the post Bradshaw era in the mid 80's. Mark Malone, Walter Abercrombie, Louis Lipps and an old John Stallworth as the focus of the offense.

[Rotorhead]

AFCN…KP, Burrow, LJ, Watson

AFCS…Levis, Stroud, Minshew, Lawrence

AFCE…Allen, Z. Wilson, Tua, Jones

AFCW…Mahomes, Herbert, R. Wilson, O’Connell

How many SB contender QBs on this list?

7 or 8

[Rotorhead]

Very much the math that I was looking at as well. I still think they need 1 more division win at least. There is a chance that they can finish 3rd in the AFC North and still make playoffs and we have to face the reality that it looks like the Ravens, Bengals and Browns are playing better overall football than the Steelers right now.

Still really enjoyable to see them in the mix, given the rebuild process, injuries and offense issues. As a fan its a lot better than the post Bradshaw era in the mid 80's. Mark Malone, Walter Abercrombie, Louis Lipps and an old John Stallworth as the focus of the offense.

Well, after this weekend, looks like the Browns are the only ones playing well, and we already beat them.

[Born2Steel]

7 or 8

I was leaning toward 6, and only because R. Wilson has already played in a couple.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Well, after this weekend, looks like the Browns are the only ones playing well, and we already beat them.

Both the Ravens and Bengals are playing well and have much better offenses than the Steelers currently have. We will see how things are in 2 weeks, but I think we can all figure out what will happen if the Steelers dont win at least 1 of the division games in the next 2 weeks. The "sky is falling" cat can warm up.

But if the Steelers can at least go 1-1 in the next couple of weeks, I think there is a good shot at them for a wildcard spot if they win the games they are supposed to from there on out.

[steelreserve]

The only teams that are a guaranteed loss are the 49ers, the Eagles, and the Swifties. Those are the new version of playing the Patriots, where we have glaring holes to attack, and our defensive game plan is to sit back and be as stupid as possible so they're even easier to exploit, and it's 28-3 by halftime. The odds of us running into one of them at some point in the playoffs are pretty close to 100 percent, so we're not winning a championship this year. Just like every year the team is this way.

Out of the other playoff contenders, realistically we probably should lose about 60-70% of those games, but teams this year other than the three above seem to have the Three Stooges act down to an art form, so there's just as good of a chance they'll nail their own ballsack to a bench as we will. So there's the cap for this season: Maybe win a couple of coin flips before we run into one of the stoppers, or maybe lose one of the coin flips and be one-and-done.

[cubanstogie]

On paper they should lose the rest of division games. But we all know how Lamar is good for a few turnovers, Watson is banged up(plus they’re the Browns!) I could see a split with Bengals but we gotta add some new offense, like maybe throw downfield or down the middle. Not scoring 24 points on swing passes. Good odds TJ takes a game over too. I think Steelers get WC.

[DesertSteel]

2) Miami/ Jacksonville - Almost no chance

I disagree on this one. Both of these teams are inconsistent and I think the Steelers would have about a 40% chance with either.

[ShadesOfSteel1172]

We have seen 9 games played. Borrowing some drastic magic, nothing with this team shouts contender. 9 games is a pretty good sample size, just over halfway through the season. They would have to dramatically improve week to week Hey, it's possible but I'm more of a realist and the reality at this point is what you see is what you get.

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[El Kabong]

AFCN…KP, Burrow, LJ, Watson

AFCS…Levis, Stroud, Minshew, Lawrence

AFCE…Allen, Z. Wilson, Tua, Jones

AFCW…Mahomes, Herbert, R. Wilson, O’Connell

How many SB contender QBs on this list?

6?

[86WARD]

I’m not sure Buffalo is a better team. They may have better coordinators and a better QB but after that, not necessarily better.

[Mojouw]

I’m not sure Buffalo is a better team. They may have better coordinators and a better QB but after that, not necessarily better.

They got docked with injuries they didn’t have depth for. Salary cap football.

[El Kabong]

The Lions? Could very well be. Especially now that they are returning to health.

I agree that all teams have flaws and questions going into the stretch run. No doubt. And in the AFC it is a more turbulent and open race than most years.

BUT...I honestly can not think of a playoff team that has been outgained and almost outscored like the 2023 Steelers. And the ones I suspect might be close, the defense is typically totally overwhelming. Recent example here would be the 2018 DuckMason Steelers. This defense is far from overwhelming.

The upcoming division games and the Seahawks game should prove good tests of the playoff "readiness" of the 2023 Steelers. If they can make a good showing in those games, let alone win a few, then maybe they are progressing to the point that they can make some noise in the playoffs. But if they get ran off the field....

2019 DuckMason Steelers.

[oneforthetoe]

I disagree on this one. Both of these teams are inconsistent and I think the Steelers would have about a 40% chance with either.

I could agree with you on that. My initial thought was that we couldn't keep up with Miami's offense but in retrospect 30 to 40 percent is pretty reasonable.

- - - Updated - - -

I’m not sure Buffalo is a better team. They may have better coordinators and a better QB but after that, not necessarily better.

There QB makes them better but I like how we play against Buffalo.

[DuckHodges]

this team reminds me of the 1997 steelers. shitty QB, not a great running game, pretty good defense. They find a way to win more often than not but it's frustrating to watch

[Mojouw]

2019 DuckMason Steelers.

My mistake. Got the year wrong.