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Thread: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

  1. #31
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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    I mean if NFL teams didn't already know Cody Mauch was darn good at OL and should be drafted high, then they need to fire their scouts and hire better ones. I knew that and I am not good at any of this and watch about 3 snaps of college football a week.

    The actual roster and practice squad is limited and salary capped. Coaching and scouting and support is not. If it takes a week of Senior Bowl practice for an NFL team to know that this guy or that SENIOR draft eligible guy can play some football -- then NFL teams are using outdated and inefficient methods. We can read online from "Trevor's TikTok Scouting Palace" about guys to watch and small-school guys to be on the look out for. NFL scouts have only this to do. If they can not see enough players, then hire more scouts. Hire TikTok Trevor. Or hire some of the people that post here.

    I am just struck every single off-season by how outdated, inefficient, and ineffective the entire "Pre-Draft Process" is. Most of the draft prospects talk about how they specialize train to ace the pre-draft underwear Olympics stuff and then end up playing their rookie year at the wrong weight, physically worn down from the extra training they did, and mentally exhausted from the process. I mean, when you had to rely on calling up Bear Bryant and hoping he didn't lie to you about how fast a kid was, then maybe all this might've mattered. But I can't remember the last "out of nowhere" guy that just upended everything during the predraft process. If anyone does, they are written off as a "workout warrior" and everyone says the "film" doesn't support the workout. So....why are we doing the workouts again?

    And of all the FCS and FBS schools in my state, there have been like a handful of guys ever picked up by NFL teams and the three I can think of off the top of my head didn't go to the Senior Bowl or the combine. Heck, the NFL found a guy I went to a D3 school with decades ago. Nothing came of it, but they knew about him.

    I just don't buy that the Scouting Departments for NFL teams re-arrange their boards much based on these events. I will buy that the coaches do. They have been doing season work and are likely just starting to learn about prospects. And I will buy that the pundits do. But if I owned a team and the Senior Bowl events radically altered my draft departments board -- I might think about firing my draft department.
    I just get to thinking that the system is set up for what worked or was needed eleventy decades ago and no one seems to question what is actually needed now? It seems that teams really want to see how guys process and assimilate information more than any physical work. So maybe they should focus on that rather than the "game stuff"?
    Obviously every player invited to the SeniorBowl was/is a known good player. That was not the question asked. NOW, teams know Cody Mauch is pretty good all across the OL. Something they may or may not have known before this past week. That knowledge would indeed improve Cody Mauch's draft value and his position on some team's draft board.

  2. #32
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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Born2Steel View Post
    Obviously every player invited to the SeniorBowl was/is a known good player. That was not the question asked. NOW, teams know Cody Mauch is pretty good all across the OL. Something they may or may not have known before this past week. That knowledge would indeed improve Cody Mauch's draft value and his position on some team's draft board.
    Like I said, I don't buy it. I really don't.

    Say a team was like Mauch is our X rated OT and we have a 3rd round grade on him. Then they go into the Senior Bowl weekend and are like...Hmmm he can play up and down the line at least this one week in specialized practice. Let's bump him up to the second round....maybe the first!

    If that is how teams are doing business - then no wonder so many of them stink at this. Mauch didn't become a better OT prospect. He's the same guy.

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Like I said, I don't buy it. I really don't.

    Say a team was like Mauch is our X rated OT and we have a 3rd round grade on him. Then they go into the Senior Bowl weekend and are like...Hmmm he can play up and down the line at least this one week in specialized practice. Let's bump him up to the second round....maybe the first!

    If that is how teams are doing business - then no wonder so many of them stink at this. Mauch didn't become a better OT prospect. He's the same guy.
    You're right.


    Back to the game....There was a DB from VaTech named Chamarri Conner that I had not seen on scout sites before SeniorBowl week. He played outside CB, Nickel, and deep Safety. He started in 50 consecutive games and played in 60 games total at VaTech. I looked up his scout report and it pretty much pencils him in as a core special teamer that can be used at multiple DB spots in a pinch. Sounds like a Willie Gay type player to me. Anybody watch VaTech much? Anything to add on this player?

  4. #34

    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Like I said, I don't buy it. I really don't.

    Say a team was like Mauch is our X rated OT and we have a 3rd round grade on him. Then they go into the Senior Bowl weekend and are like...Hmmm he can play up and down the line at least this one week in specialized practice. Let's bump him up to the second round....maybe the first!

    If that is how teams are doing business - then no wonder so many of them stink at this. Mauch didn't become a better OT prospect. He's the same guy.
    Skimming the thread, I can come with a couple of reasons why someone might rise or fall due to the SeniorBowl. First, this is the closest these players have played against NFL-level talent across the board. A lineman might be fantastic during the season. But line him up against a D line where the DEs are running at almost 1990 running back speeds and DTs are 3-5 tenths of a second slower, and that same lineman man not play so well. His processing to pick up a stunt or to deal with a blitz or whatever else make be too slow. But, that's covered up by playing against a team where only 2-4 players might have something close to NFL talent and/or speed. It's also the first time these players are working with an NFL staff. So, they're practicing and playing for four or so days with coaches that are giving the first glimpse of NFL systems. Players that shine under that more than likely will be okay in the NFL. Someone who might not have been on a team's radar because he's from a smaller school, let's say, or was overshadowed by another draft prospect that didn't show up to the bowl (as most top prospects don't, it seems), can rise in draft value because they suddenly show up on the radar.


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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Craic View Post
    Skimming the thread, I can come with a couple of reasons why someone might rise or fall due to the SeniorBowl. First, this is the closest these players have played against NFL-level talent across the board. A lineman might be fantastic during the season. But line him up against a D line where the DEs are running at almost 1990 running back speeds and DTs are 3-5 tenths of a second slower, and that same lineman man not play so well. His processing to pick up a stunt or to deal with a blitz or whatever else make be too slow. But, that's covered up by playing against a team where only 2-4 players might have something close to NFL talent and/or speed. It's also the first time these players are working with an NFL staff. So, they're practicing and playing for four or so days with coaches that are giving the first glimpse of NFL systems. Players that shine under that more than likely will be okay in the NFL. Someone who might not have been on a team's radar because he's from a smaller school, let's say, or was overshadowed by another draft prospect that didn't show up to the bowl (as most top prospects don't, it seems), can rise in draft value because they suddenly show up on the radar.
    I guess. I can see the reasons that we have all been told and believe this stuff is super duper really really important.

    But I can not shake the feeling that even if they are NOT doing it, NFL teams should be doing this all way better than they are.

    I can not think of another pro sport off the top of my head that needs to hold these special events to understand what players they want to draft/sign from the amateur ranks. Certainly other sports hold combines and draft workouts, but you just do not seem to hear the same breathless reports of serious draft weekend altering rising and falling.

    So....maybe it just goes back to the usual source of the problem....NFL coverage. Perhaps teams are smartly going about their business and it is just the all day every day content generation nonsense machine that makes it seem all so silly and inefficient.

    Here is the example that sticks with me. No one in media or draft speculation sites had Edmunds as a "first round guy". Then it came out that the Steelers and a few other teams did. Then it has since come out that most of the NFL did, they just didn't see him as their priority first round guy. But the general NFL Draft internet didn't get hip to that until the 11th hour so we have this big story of a massive riser or a big reach or whatever....but there is a version that didn't get reported that had all the NFL teams being like "that was a reasonable and somewhat expected pick and aligned with approximately where we had the guy graded also"

    And I do not doubt the "radar" stuff you and others are speaking of....but what do these guys do all day everyday besides stare at the radar? If you either don't have a enough guys looking at it or aren't looking in enough places....do better.

  6. #36

    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    I guess. I can see the reasons that we have all been told and believe this stuff is super duper really really important.

    But I can not shake the feeling that even if they are NOT doing it, NFL teams should be doing this all way better than they are.

    I can not think of another pro sport off the top of my head that needs to hold these special events to understand what players they want to draft/sign from the amateur ranks. Certainly other sports hold combines and draft workouts, but you just do not seem to hear the same breathless reports of serious draft weekend altering rising and falling.

    So....maybe it just goes back to the usual source of the problem....NFL coverage. Perhaps teams are smartly going about their business and it is just the all day every day content generation nonsense machine that makes it seem all so silly and inefficient.

    Here is the example that sticks with me. No one in media or draft speculation sites had Edmunds as a "first round guy". Then it came out that the Steelers and a few other teams did. Then it has since come out that most of the NFL did, they just didn't see him as their priority first round guy. But the general NFL Draft internet didn't get hip to that until the 11th hour so we have this big story of a massive riser or a big reach or whatever....but there is a version that didn't get reported that had all the NFL teams being like "that was a reasonable and somewhat expected pick and aligned with approximately where we had the guy graded also"

    And I do not doubt the "radar" stuff you and others are speaking of....but what do these guys do all day everyday besides stare at the radar? If you either don't have a enough guys looking at it or aren't looking in enough places....do better.
    That could be true, but most of the other sports also have strong farm systems that drafted players enter. Hockey has a tiered system with the AHL at the top, followed by the ECHL, and then at least three low-level leagues (FPHL, LNAH, and SPHL). Baseball, of course, has the most extensive farm system. Even the NBA now has a type of farm system with the G-League teams (and, they're only drafting two players, which makes it a lot easier). So, of the big-four North American Sports, only football has to spend draft picks with the hopes that all of them make the team that year and don't have the option of stashing them away on a farm team to see if develop into their potential. That, to me, means the process of selection is going to be very different than any other team.


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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Certainly other sports hold combines and draft workouts, but you just do not seem to hear the same breathless reports of serious draft weekend altering rising and falling.
    The NFL is more popular and the NFL knows how to market their offseason events to make it a year-round sport. Craic's points above are also strong arguments as to why this is.

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Isn't the NCAA the NFL farm system?

    If in 2022 some dude can show up at an off season event and go from UDFA to mid round pick like some of these reports annually claim, then, sorry - these teams are terrible at one of their fundamental job functions.

    Either NFL teams kinda suck at their jobs or these pre draft pony shows are a bit dated and most teams are confirming what they think they know.

    I've got a hard time believing that a gazillion dollar business is going to rely on like a week of drills to stack their boards.

    I believe they once did when travel, information, and communication was slower and less high quality. And if they're still doing it that way - gracious me but that's ridiculous.

    I think to generate revenue and exposure the utility of these things is greatly exaggerated by tye very media that needs them to be important so their jobs can be justified.

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Isn't the NCAA the NFL farm system?

    If in 2022 some dude can show up at an off season event and go from UDFA to mid round pick like some of these reports annually claim, then, sorry - these teams are terrible at one of their fundamental job functions.

    Either NFL teams kinda suck at their jobs or these pre draft pony shows are a bit dated and most teams are confirming what they think they know.

    I've got a hard time believing that a gazillion dollar business is going to rely on like a week of drills to stack their boards.

    I believe they once did when travel, information, and communication was slower and less high quality. And if they're still doing it that way - gracious me but that's ridiculous.

    I think to generate revenue and exposure the utility of these things is greatly exaggerated by tye very media that needs them to be important so their jobs can be justified.
    You're putting way too much into this. These guys were only Seniors, not the entire list of guys on the draft board. Yes, these events help some of the players improve their draft stock. No, it is not some football universe shifting flash of insight.

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    I can think of lots of guys that this game and others help their draft stock. Sometimes its small school DII competition that nobody knows of and other times its the school they played at didnt hilight their skillset possibly due to system, etc.

    Quinn Meinarz- he played at something like Wisconsin Whitewater....seeing him against BIG10, SEC competition helps evaluation.
    John Bates- TE at Washington now. Hardly put up much in the way of receiving stats at Boise State, but showed he could play TE as a receiver and blocker in Mobile
    Alex Leatherwood- OT Alabama. Most had him as a top pick at OT, but he looked too slow and heavy footed to play OT, but the Raiders bit on him when others likely would not.
    Terry McLaurin- wasnt really hyped up at all, but had a real good Senior Bowl week and went in the 3rd round. Has played like a 1st round pick.
    Adam Trautman- TE Dayton. Dayton had not had a player drafted in the NFL since the 1970's and Trautman showed well at the Senior Bowl and combine and was a 3rd round pick.

    The NFL post season games like Shrine and Senior Bowl give a lot of scouts, coaches, GM's some extra looks at players against elite competition. Its part of the process and a good one. I dont know what all the gnashing of teeth about it is, because IMO its great and can help weed out some guys that are over hyped and give chances to smaller school guys that didnt play against power 5 conferences.

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    the BIGGEST thing at the Sr Bowl is for the few small school kids who actually get an invite and get to show what they are made of vs SEC and Big10 players ...

    if they fair well it gives NFL teams a better idea of their chances at stepping up 2-3 levels of competition into the pros vs where they collected all their college experience playing at Northern Illinois (or insert small school of your choice here)

    the Sr Bowl is the best competition these kids ever faced if they show out then teams may take a shot at them whereas without it they got next to no chance other than maybe a priority FA invite to camp
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles problem now

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    I think I should rephrase my point/question.

    Take Meinerz. Did he improve his stock? Or solidify his stock? Like confirm what most teams thought.

    Related, when we talk about changing/solidify/etc. evals...is that evals by folks we as fans can read or is it really internal NFL evals?

    I remember when Meinerz came out there were some pre draft sites that were touting him early and often. Then it went down like it did. And those sites/personalities looked like geniuses.

    But I really do wonder if some draft dude on the internet was able to project Meinerz as a high quality player, is that where NFL teams had him all along?

    Because, honestly, the way some of you all are painting this, there are multiple non professional internet sites that are better at this than entire NFL teams. I find it hard to believe that would be the case.

    It doesn't matter. It's the off season and boring. But I wonder if for all.the supposed thougt and effort that goes into "winning" that teams just aren't very good at this?

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Honestly, many of you seem FAR better at this than most public facing sites.

    I wonder how far off from teams you guys are? I bet not that much.

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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post

    Take Meinerz. Did he improve his stock? Or solidify his stock? Like confirm what most teams thought.


    It doesn't matter. It's the off season and boring. But I wonder if for all.the supposed thougt and effort that goes into "winning" that teams just aren't very good at this?
    If you have never seen the movie "Trouble with the Curve" you should watch it. Clint Eastwood, Amy Adams, etc. Everybody is hyping up a baseball prospect until the scout, Eastwood, sees that the kid has a hole in his swing and problem hitting a curve ball.

    Meinarz, could have been that kid that was hyped and when you got to see him could have had issues, but didnt. Conversely, Alex Leatherwood had troubles with quick pass rushers and busted as a RT that needed to push inside to guard.

    Remember Jared Pinkey TE from Vanderbilt? Tons of talk about his stats and being a top TE pick in 2020, but he went to the Senior Bowl and showed he was too slow to get open against top players.

    Just because some websites run by guys in their basements say some guy has stock rising or sliding doesnt mean much. Guys with an ability to see traits and have experience have a much better time evaluating.

  15. #45

    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Isn't the NCAA the NFL farm system?

    If in 2022 some dude can show up at an off season event and go from UDFA to mid round pick like some of these reports annually claim, then, sorry - these teams are terrible at one of their fundamental job functions.

    Either NFL teams kinda suck at their jobs or these pre draft pony shows are a bit dated and most teams are confirming what they think they know.

    I've got a hard time believing that a gazillion dollar business is going to rely on like a week of drills to stack their boards.

    I believe they once did when travel, information, and communication was slower and less high quality. And if they're still doing it that way - gracious me but that's ridiculous.

    I think to generate revenue and exposure the utility of these things is greatly exaggerated by tye very media that needs them to be important so their jobs can be justified.
    No, Farm systems mean inside information, constant eyes-on from within the organization, and a ton more learning about someone. And, don't forget, we're talking about a sport that might play as many games in a college career as another plays in a single season on a farm team.

    Now, I don't buy someone will into the Sen.B and jump his stock by four rounds. But, I absolutely buy a team watching a Sen.B performance and deciding to take player A over player B because of his ability to play against faster and better opponents. I buy a player coming in and putting things on tape that hasn't been there before due to schemes or the difference between college and NFL expectations. I buy someone rising because they were having to cover for a weaker teammate during the year and now they get to show what they can do with a better crop of talent. Also note that it is a boon for NFL coaching staffs who get to see these kids up closes. There's several stories about kids being drafted after a coach coaches him in the Sen. B.


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    Re: Senior bowl week 2023 thread

    Quote Originally Posted by El-Gonzo Jackson View Post
    If you have never seen the movie "Trouble with the Curve" you should watch it. Clint Eastwood, Amy Adams, etc. Everybody is hyping up a baseball prospect until the scout, Eastwood, sees that the kid has a hole in his swing and problem hitting a curve ball.

    Meinarz, could have been that kid that was hyped and when you got to see him could have had issues, but didnt. Conversely, Alex Leatherwood had troubles with quick pass rushers and busted as a RT that needed to push inside to guard.

    Remember Jared Pinkey TE from Vanderbilt? Tons of talk about his stats and being a top TE pick in 2020, but he went to the Senior Bowl and showed he was too slow to get open against top players.

    Just because some websites run by guys in their basements say some guy has stock rising or sliding doesnt mean much. Guys with an ability to see traits and have experience have a much better time evaluating.
    This is my point - I believe that pro scouts are really good. I actually think that teams are fairly decent at this because the alternative is that they are comically inept at one of the most critical pieces of their job.

    That is why I do not believe that guys rise or fall that much at the Senior Bowl or the Combine. I think they do on pundits and media boards...but not on NFL boards.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Craic View Post
    No, Farm systems mean inside information, constant eyes-on from within the organization, and a ton more learning about someone. And, don't forget, we're talking about a sport that might play as many games in a college career as another plays in a single season on a farm team.

    Now, I don't buy someone will into the Sen.B and jump his stock by four rounds. But, I absolutely buy a team watching a Sen.B performance and deciding to take player A over player B because of his ability to play against faster and better opponents. I buy a player coming in and putting things on tape that hasn't been there before due to schemes or the difference between college and NFL expectations. I buy someone rising because they were having to cover for a weaker teammate during the year and now they get to show what they can do with a better crop of talent. Also note that it is a boon for NFL coaching staffs who get to see these kids up closes. There's several stories about kids being drafted after a coach coaches him in the Sen. B.
    I can buy most of that. But when you say rise, what are you thinking in terms of the scale of that?

    Say a prospect comes in as the 12th ranked guard in the overall draft class. But, like you mentioned, freed from having to cover up for a less talented teammate, dude plays his butt off and looks really good. Can he really go to the 5th ranked guard? The 10th? The 3rd? Or does he stay the 12th ranked guard and a handful of teams with sharp eyed coaches on site that week are set up to take a "steal" when he comes off the draft board in the 6th round?

    Media reports make it seem like these kids are going to show up and change the rankings in big way. And I do not buy that. Because if they were doing that...then the system is super broken and bad.

    The more nuanced and smaller movements that you are talking about...sure. That can and does happen.

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