Week 13: Ravens Round 1

[Mojouw]

That money that Rodgers and Carr gets isn't guaranteed money though. No QB is worth $250M fully guaranteed. Maybe $50M in "contract speak" but fully guaranteed? No way.

You would basically be guaranteeing half of Jackson's contract if you did a 10 year deal. Based on his age, that seems like a reasonable timeline.

I realize the yearly cap #'s would look different but each season would be like $25 million guaranteed cash and $20 million in non-guaranteed cash.

Even if you only guaranteed like $150 million of the deal (in line with Mahomes contract) and still paid Jackson $45 million per year....how much of that contract are you likely to pay out? He's your franchise QB in his early 20's. So most of it? Even if he gets hurt and misses an entire season....your going to give him another season or two to try and return to form.

Kind of like how people always talk about how the Steelers typically pay out the full contract regardless of guarantees. Ravens have approached it in a similar manner over the years. So if you are going into the situation assuming you are paying the thing out...what's the big deal? Keep the engine that generates wins for your team happy.

[86WARD]

You would basically be guaranteeing half of Jackson's contract if you did a 10 year deal. Based on his age, that seems like a reasonable timeline.

I realize the yearly cap #'s would look different but each season would be like $25 million guaranteed cash and $20 million in non-guaranteed cash.

Even if you only guaranteed like $150 million of the deal (in line with Mahomes contract) and still paid Jackson $45 million per year....how much of that contract are you likely to pay out? He's your franchise QB in his early 20's. So most of it? Even if he gets hurt and misses an entire season....your going to give him another season or two to try and return to form.

Kind of like how people always talk about how the Steelers typically pay out the full contract regardless of guarantees. Ravens have approached it in a similar manner over the years. So if you are going into the situation assuming you are paying the thing out...what's the big deal? Keep the engine that generates wins for your team happy.

Jackson is definitely worth the money he is going to get paid. I'm just saying if he wants $250M guaranteed, he's not worth that deal...

[polamalubeast]

You would basically be guaranteeing half of Jackson's contract if you did a 10 year deal. Based on his age, that seems like a reasonable timeline.

I realize the yearly cap #'s would look different but each season would be like $25 million guaranteed cash and $20 million in non-guaranteed cash.

Even if you only guaranteed like $150 million of the deal (in line with Mahomes contract) and still paid Jackson $45 million per year....how much of that contract are you likely to pay out? He's your franchise QB in his early 20's. So most of it? Even if he gets hurt and misses an entire season....your going to give him another season or two to try and return to form.

Kind of like how people always talk about how the Steelers typically pay out the full contract regardless of guarantees. Ravens have approached it in a similar manner over the years. So if you are going into the situation assuming you are paying the thing out...what's the big deal? Keep the engine that generates wins for your team happy.

It was a 6 years deal,not a 10 years deal that the ravens had offer to Jackson

The Ravens also balked at Jackson's wish for a fully guaranteed deal similar to Deshaun Watson's, sources told ESPN, prompting the sides to table contract talks until after the 2022 season.

Sources told ESPN the Ravens' proposed contract was believed to pay Jackson a higher average salary and more guaranteed money than deals signed this summer by Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.

Wilson signed a $242.5 million deal earlier this month that averaged $48.5 million annually and included $161 million guaranteed, about six weeks after Murray received a $230.5 million deal that averaged $46 million per year and included $189.5 million guaranteed.

But the issue for Jackson wasn't Wilson's deal or Murray's so much as it was Watson's, according to sources. The Browns signed Watson to a fully guaranteed $230 million contract, and Jackson wanted to match it, sources said.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...th-250-million

[Mojouw]

It was a 6 years deal,not a 10 years deal that the ravens had offer to Jackson

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...th-250-million

Sure. But if I’m the Ravens, I counter that if you want that much guaranteed, gotta give me more years.

Ultimately, I think they’ll cave unless the owners have basically told the Ravens to hold the line.

[polamalubeast]

The offer was fair....With this offer,he was likely to have between 200 and 300 millions for a 6 years period,this is better that none guaranteed after this year for Lamar....The franchise tag is the likely outcome for next year and the year after....Lamar don't have a agent too

Betting on yourself can work (like Aaron Judge in baseball) but it can turn against you big time if it doesn't as we have seen this often too in sports.I'm far from certain Lamar would have a fully guaranteed contract like Watson on the open market because of his style, so i understand the ravens being careful about that

[Rotorhead]

I don’t think Lamar would thrive in 90% of teams the way he plays. The ravens built their offense around LJs abilities (imagine if we had an OC that could do something like that).

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I never understand why fans get upset about a guy making money in sports, or deeming him not worth a certain value. Does it really matter in your lives?

No matter what Lamar Jackson gets, good for him. If the Ravens retain him then great, because its going to cost them a lot of money, tighten up their cap so they cant get as many free agents and the truth of the matter is that he hasnt shown that he can win a playoff game with his arm, when the opposing defense takes away the Ravens run game.

I personally hope the Ravens pay him more than any other NFL QB, because it should make them a worse team in the long run.

[polamalubeast]

I never understand why fans get upset about a guy making money in sports, or deeming him not worth a certain value. Does it really matter in your lives?

No matter what Lamar Jackson gets, good for him. If the Ravens retain him then great, because its going to cost them a lot of money, tighten up their cap so they cant get as many free agents and the truth of the matter is that he hasnt shown that he can win a playoff game with his arm, when the opposing defense takes away the Ravens run game.

I personally hope the Ravens pay him more than any other NFL QB, because it should make them a worse team in the long run.

Who is upset on this board?

[DesertSteel]

I never understand why fans get upset about a guy making money in sports, or deeming him not worth a certain value. Does it really matter in your lives?

No matter what Lamar Jackson gets, good for him. If the Ravens retain him then great, because its going to cost them a lot of money, tighten up their cap so they cant get as many free agents and the truth of the matter is that he hasnt shown that he can win a playoff game with his arm, when the opposing defense takes away the Ravens run game.

I personally hope the Ravens pay him more than any other NFL QB, because it should make them a worse team in the long run.

As I've stated, I hope they break the bank for Lamar, but it has nothing to do with him. I think it would be in their worst interests long term and that is good for the Steelers long term. I completely agree with your final comment.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Who is upset on this board?

Just wait for the next Steeler in his contract year to get paid. It always happens.

Right now I would say that there are lots of Steelers fans upset about what Dionte Johnson got paid. When JuJu wanted a contract they bitch about what he isnt worth. Right now posters are saying that Jackson isnt worth a certain amount guaranteed, while Massage Watson got $230million guaranteed.

If Jackson sets a new market at higher than Watson, good for him. Whoever gets paid, I feel happy for them because iit is what the market pays and it isnt my money. Its just like NIL in college, if the market will pay an athlete that generates millions for their school, I am glad they get it. Its just capitalism.

[Mojouw]

If Jackson gets a full or close to full guarantee like he wants, people are going to lose their minds. Because that means that any top 10-ish "franchise" QB is going to want a fully guaranteed deal moving forward.

Steelers specific, that means Pickett. Factor in NFL salary cap inflation....yada yada yada....KP and his agent could be in a position to ask for $300 million guaranteed in 3-4 years.

That's gonna go over like lead ballon.

Also, Jackson costs the Ravens no matter what. The guarantee really only "backfires" if Jackson is hurt so badly he has to retire and can no longer play. He's getting paid $40-50 million per season one way or the other. If the Ravens do not pay him that, then he's going to go to a team that will. The Jets and Panthers would fist-fight in the street on pay per view to haven an opportunity to give Jackson $50 million per season to QB their team.

So leave the guarantee out of it. If you were the Ravens would you resign Jackson to be your starting QB for the next 5-10 years? Or would you prefer to start over?

[polamalubeast]

Just wait for the next Steeler in his contract year to get paid. It always happens.

Right now I would say that there are lots of Steelers fans upset about what Dionte Johnson got paid. When JuJu wanted a contract they bitch about what he isnt worth. Right now posters are saying that Jackson isnt worth a certain amount guaranteed, while Massage Watson got $230million guaranteed.

If Jackson sets a new market at higher than Watson, good for him. Whoever gets paid, I feel happy for them because iit is what the market pays and it isnt my money. Its just like NIL in college, if the market will pay an athlete that generates millions for their school, I am glad they get it. Its just capitalism.

Many understand this situation

The reason why a lot of bitch on Johnson's contract is because he's terrible right now...If he would perform better, no one would say a word about it...Not hard to understand

I also have a problem for players who complain even with a big contract no matter what and no,the guaranteed money won't solve the problem, it's just going to be worse....Just to look in the NBA every offseason, it's just awful and a true circus

For Watson, the problem is that he was like rewarded despite his major off-field issue and he had asked for a trade just 5 months after his huge contract in 2020, sorry, I have no respect for that


If Lamar has the contract he wants, great for him and I have no problem with that if he's not trying to break the system but I'm just saying it's a risky strategy by him and i want to see nobody criticize the ravens if jackson has below what he wanted if he is on the open market in 2025, but i believe he will be traded in 2024 if he doesn't have a long term contract by then with the ravens

[86WARD]

If Jackson gets a full or close to full guarantee like he wants, people are going to lose their minds. Because that means that any top 10-ish "franchise" QB is going to want a fully guaranteed deal moving forward.

Steelers specific, that means Pickett. Factor in NFL salary cap inflation....yada yada yada....KP and his agent could be in a position to ask for $300 million guaranteed in 3-4 years.

That's gonna go over like lead ballon.

Also, Jackson costs the Ravens no matter what. The guarantee really only "backfires" if Jackson is hurt so badly he has to retire and can no longer play. He's getting paid $40-50 million per season one way or the other. If the Ravens do not pay him that, then he's going to go to a team that will. The Jets and Panthers would fist-fight in the street on pay per view to haven an opportunity to give Jackson $50 million per season to QB their team.

So leave the guarantee out of it. If you were the Ravens would you resign Jackson to be your starting QB for the next 5-10 years? Or would you prefer to start over?

That’s the thing though…if you want that Top-10 QB (who doesn’t want a Top-10. QB?) you’re going to have to pay because if you don’t, another team will…and if you don’t, you might not be that good…

[Mojouw]

That’s the thing though…if you want that Top-10 QB (who doesn’t want a Top-10. QB?) you’re going to have to pay because if you don’t, another team will…and if you don’t, you might not be that good…

Right?

So just guarantee the deal and move on.

75% of the time or more, you’re paying out that $250 million to a QB.

I guess I’m having a hard time seeing the big deal?

[NCSteeler]

It was a 6 years deal,not a 10 years deal that the ravens had offer to Jackson

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...th-250-million

What your saying is The Browns fucked up? That seems simple . Lol. They over paid for a masseuse molestor

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[86WARD]

Right?

So just guarantee the deal and move on.

75% of the time or more, you’re paying out that $250 million to a QB.

I guess I’m having a hard time seeing the big deal?

I kinda get what your saying and in hindsight (Ben Era), that makes 100% sense. But, what if he gets a career ending injury on the first snap after signing that deal? Obviously the worst case scenario. But what if he does? What if he gets Theismaned and is done forever? That’s a big chunk that would cripple a team for a very, very long time…

Is it likely to happen that way? Probably not but there is a chance every time he snaps the ball that it could happen, especially for a guy like Jackson…

[cubanstogie]

16-15, last second FG. Sadly probably a 59 yarder by Tucker.

[Mojouw]

I kinda get what your saying and in hindsight (Ben Era), that makes 100% sense. But, what if he gets a career ending injury on the first snap after signing that deal? Obviously the worst case scenario. But what if he does? What if he gets Theismaned and is done forever? That’s a big chunk that would cripple a team for a very, very long time…

Is it likely to happen that way? Probably not but there is a chance every time he snaps the ball that it could happen, especially for a guy like Jackson…

True. There’s no debating that any QB runs that risk.

I’m not certain I buy into the idea that Jackson’s risk is unreasonably elevated. Randall Cunningham played a long time in a more violent era.

I just think that QB contracts are just going to start being guaranteed. Or possibly even all “star” players.

Not sure it’s the risk that some fear it is.

Anytime you pay a QB it’s a massive use of cap resources and the overwhelming majority play out their contracts.

[HollywoodSteel]

Just wait for the next Steeler in his contract year to get paid. It always happens.

Right now I would say that there are lots of Steelers fans upset about what Dionte Johnson got paid. When JuJu wanted a contract they bitch about what he isnt worth. Right now posters are saying that Jackson isnt worth a certain amount guaranteed, while Massage Watson got $230million guaranteed.

If Jackson sets a new market at higher than Watson, good for him. Whoever gets paid, I feel happy for them because iit is what the market pays and it isnt my money. Its just like NIL in college, if the market will pay an athlete that generates millions for their school, I am glad they get it. Its just capitalism.

I think most people look at this incorrectly. It is kind of capitalist adjacent because it is a capped system.

It isn't a class struggle between millionaires and billionaires. That happens during negotiations regarding profit percentages between the players' union and the owners. But giant individual contracts are a struggle between superstar players and OTHER PLAYERS.

Giant individual contracts don't actually cost an owner any more money, it just costs him (and the fans of the team, which is we care about such things) flexibility to distribute the same money amongst other quality players, and potentially having a better team.

That's why I never understand why journeymen quality veterans are so "happy" for superstars getting a larger percentage of a fixed pie. It means absolutely nothing in terms of net cost to the owner, it is only a potential cost to OTHER PLAYERS who are then more likely to get cut for someone cheaper, and perhaps less skilled. Yay solidarity!

[Born2Steel]

True. There’s no debating that any QB runs that risk.

I’m not certain I buy into the idea that Jackson’s risk is unreasonably elevated. Randall Cunningham played a long time in a more violent era.

I just think that QB contracts are just going to start being guaranteed. Or possibly even all “star” players.

Not sure it’s the risk that some fear it is.

Anytime you pay a QB it’s a massive use of cap resources and the overwhelming majority play out their contracts.

Everything you are pointing out makes total sense. However, guaranteeing full contracts in a league with a hard salary cap is the part that makes no sense. If I sign a player to $50M/year for 5 years, he makes $250M, sure. But if he is unable to fulfill some or all of the 5yr part, a different player can come in for that $50M. If the entire $250M is guaranteed, I can't bring in another $50M caliber player.

The part that gets completely muddy is 'franchise QB'. I would not want my team to fully guarantee a contract like that. BUT, if I were LJ, I would not sign a franchise tag either. So...I just wait to see what happens.

[Mojouw]

Everything you are pointing out makes total sense. However, guaranteeing full contracts in a league with a hard salary cap is the part that makes no sense. If I sign a player to $50M/year for 5 years, he makes $250M, sure. But if he is unable to fulfill some or all of the 5yr part, a different player can come in for that $50M. If the entire $250M is guaranteed, I can't bring in another $50M caliber player.

The part that gets completely muddy is 'franchise QB'. I would not want my team to fully guarantee a contract like that. BUT, if I were LJ, I would not sign a franchise tag either. So...I just wait to see what happens.

All true. It’s a risk. But I don’t think it’s as big a risk as it’s made out to be.

Say your $250 million guaranteed contract franchise QB suffers catastrophic injury in Year 2. Finish the year with his backup. Year 3 you’re likely to carry the contract even if it was NONguaranteed hoping against hope your franchise cornerstone somehow recovers. Likely play Year 3 with the backup or some relatively inexpensive veteran stopgap. Now, year 4 is where the actual guaranteed pain starts. BUT…aren’t you likely drafting a cheap rookie high in the draft at this point? So you pay $60 million for the position in Year 4 and 5. It sucks that $50 million is going to a guy whose on his way to retirement but it’s counterbalanced by your new el cheapo rookie deal QB.

I’m not saying this is a great idea or team friendly terms but I’m skeptical that it’s this franchise wrecking decision.

[86WARD]

What if you think your QB might be a franchise guy and then turns out he’s…meh…good at times but above average and not really a franchise guy. You’re stuck with that guy for however long. What if you have $250M to Baker Mayfield but thought he might be Patrick Mahomes because he mad a couple side arm type plays??? Then what?

[Mojouw]

What if you think your QB might be a franchise guy and then turns out he’s…meh…good at times but above average and not really a franchise guy. You’re stuck with that guy for however long. What if you have $250M to Baker Mayfield but thought he might be Patrick Mahomes because he mad a couple side arm type plays??? Then what?

You can’t eliminate risk.

Most of the time with QBs you have 3-4 years of their rookie deal to make your evaluation. If after 3-4 years you can’t determine if the guy is good or not, your team and GM likely has bigger problems as well.

Scenario you laid out has happened once. Carson Wentz. Other than that, never happened.

I’ve never said this is a good idea. Just that it’s coming. Teams will try and stave it off. If it’s not Jackson, then maybe Herbert. Or a guy like Micah Parsons or Justin Jefferson is going to figure they’ve got their team over a barrel.

I really think that guarantees are coming for the top few guys at their positions.

[Born2Steel]

All true. It’s a risk. But I don’t think it’s as big a risk as it’s made out to be.

Say your $250 million guaranteed contract franchise QB suffers catastrophic injury in Year 2. Finish the year with his backup. Year 3 you’re likely to carry the contract even if it was NONguaranteed hoping against hope your franchise cornerstone somehow recovers. Likely play Year 3 with the backup or some relatively inexpensive veteran stopgap. Now, year 4 is where the actual guaranteed pain starts. BUT…aren’t you likely drafting a cheap rookie high in the draft at this point? So you pay $60 million for the position in Year 4 and 5. It sucks that $50 million is going to a guy whose on his way to retirement but it’s counterbalanced by your new el cheapo rookie deal QB.

I’m not saying this is a great idea or team friendly terms but I’m skeptical that it’s this franchise wrecking decision.

Yes. There is always going to be risk. I just think the better move for the team is the one with less risk. If the player simply wants what they want and nothing else will do, sometimes the risk is better to move on. Sometimes it’s better to pay up. How do we view Watson’s deal vs the Browns risk right now today? When that deal was made Watson was considered a top 5(?) QB.

[Mojouw]

Yes. There is always going to be risk. I just think the better move for the team is the one with less risk. If the player simply wants what they want and nothing else will do, sometimes the risk is better to move on. Sometimes it’s better to pay up. How do we view Watson’s deal vs the Browns risk right now today? When that deal was made Watson was considered a top 5(?) QB.

It looks awful. All that cash and you played like the worst QB in the league.

The best thing for the teams would be to not pay these guys at all.

I think that in the specific case of QBs the crippling risk can be some what mitigated. And someone is going to do this.

Say the Ravens let Jackson get to the open market after 2 franchise tag seasons. He’s still under 30. Playing well. There will be at least 2 teams competing to sign him. I think there’s a non zero chance some moribund team uses a full guarantee to ensure they get their guy.

[Born2Steel]

It looks awful. All that cash and you played like the worst QB in the league.

The best thing for the teams would be to not pay these guys at all.

I think that in the specific case of QBs the crippling risk can be some what mitigated. And someone is going to do this.

Say the Ravens let Jackson get to the open market after 2 franchise tag seasons. He’s still under 30. Playing well. There will be at least 2 teams competing to sign him. I think there’s a non zero chance some moribund team uses a full guarantee to ensure they get their guy.

For the record, I’m all for players making whatever they can get. I’m glad Watt got what he did. I’m also glad it’s not fully guaranteed, if only for the ability to borrow from the bank of Watt during future moves. But the franchise QB is just a different level altogether. There really is no cap on what they are worth but they are also the reason there is a rookie pay scale.

[Crow-Magnon]

I may be wrong, but I think the issue owners have with “fully guaranteed” contracts is that the $$$ needs to be put in escrow up front. So a $250-$300M contract is a chunk of change to lay out at once. And if many contracts starts heading in that direction, it’s going to be a serious drain on available liquid capital.

[DuckHodges]

had a nightmare last night that the steelers lost 30-13 and kenny pickett got benched after only completing 3 passes with 24 attempts

[Mojouw]

I may be wrong, but I think the issue owners have with “fully guaranteed” contracts is that the $$$ needs to be put in escrow up front. So a $250-$300M contract is a chunk of change to lay out at once. And if many contracts starts heading in that direction, it’s going to be a serious drain on available liquid capital.

That’s a really big point. I wonder how other pro sports handle this?

[86WARD]

I may be wrong, but I think the issue owners have with “fully guaranteed” contracts is that the $$$ needs to be put in escrow up front. So a $250-$300M contract is a chunk of change to lay out at once. And if many contracts starts heading in that direction, it’s going to be a serious drain on available liquid capital.

I believe you are correct and I believe, a few years ago or so, that was why the Raiders couldn’t make moves because they didn’t have the liquid money to do so.