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Thread: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

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    Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    You have a better chance at buying a scratch off lottery ticket and winning ( most are 3:1 to 4:1 odds ) than Najee rushing for 100 yards that is a 1:8.3 chance .....


    Time to bench this guy and see what we have in Warren (Willie Parker's cousin)
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles didn't value him either , now he is a Stain at the Mistake by the Lake 3 teams in 4 years more of a shooting star than a superstar

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Benching is a bit much. Definitely need to give Warren more snaps.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    I have a hard time believing he's 100% from the lisfranc injury, even if he says so. That stuff is death to a lot of WR/RB's careers. He didnt have much space to run last year either but he created a lot more opportunities than he has been. Feeding Warren is long overdue
    Quote Originally Posted by XxKnightxX View Post
    We are not Buffalo, We are not Miami. We are the Steelers, we dont blow out teams, we cock tease for ratings and keep games close.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Born2Steel View Post
    Benching is a bit much. Definitely need to give Warren more snaps.
    when your play is below the line ( and its far below the line ) Benching is warranted ..

    3.3 YPC ...

    career 3.8 ypc .....

    I mean we are talking Benny Snell kind of numbers here ( 3.5 ypc )

    Warren on the other hand 5.3 ypc behind the same line
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles didn't value him either , now he is a Stain at the Mistake by the Lake 3 teams in 4 years more of a shooting star than a superstar

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    when your paly is below the line ( and its far below the line ) Benching is warranted ..

    3.3 YPC ...

    career 3.8 ypc .....

    I mean we are talking Benny Snell kind of numbers here ( 3.5 ypc )

    Warren on the other hand 5.3 ypc behind the same line
    Giving Warren more snaps doesn't have to mean benching Najee is more my point.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Najee needs about 10 touches a game, with 4-5 of them being through the air.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    This is a criticism of Tomlin. Tomlin knows Najee has been playing hurt with an insert in his shoe for the first several games.

    Tomlin has never had a top running game and has never used a rotation at the RB position.

    In Leveon Bell's best two years as a rusher, 2014 and 2016, the Steelers were 15th and 16th in yards and Y/A.

    How much better than former All-Pro Leveon Bell does
    Najee have to be to overcome his coaching staff? He's going to have to transform into
    Barry Sanders no?

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Lloydwoodsonjr View Post
    This is a criticism of Tomlin. Tomlin knows Najee has been playing hurt with an insert in his shoe for the first several games.

    Tomlin has never had a top running game and has never used a rotation at the RB position.

    In Leveon Bell's best two years as a rusher, 2014 and 2016, the Steelers were 15th and 16th in yards and Y/A.

    How much better than former All-Pro Leveon Bell does
    Najee have to be to overcome his coaching staff? He's going to have to transform into
    Barry Sanders no?
    UDRFA Warren seems to be handling it just fine so there goes your theory
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles didn't value him either , now he is a Stain at the Mistake by the Lake 3 teams in 4 years more of a shooting star than a superstar

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    I think Tomlin must be afraid to reduce Najee's carries since Najee is a team captain, and they already demoted Trubisky (another captain). I have no other explanation. I too think Najee is affected by his lisfranc injury from the summer. The difference between him and Warren currently is so obvious when you see Warren come in and in his few carries he plays decisively and explodes upfield. Najee looks hesitant and stuck in mud right now.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    UDRFA Warren seems to be handling it just fine so there goes your theory
    Exactly.

    Other than catching the ball, his rookie season was bad too (3.9).

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by dislocatedday View Post
    I think Tomlin must be afraid to reduce Najee's carries since Najee is a team captain, and they already demoted Trubisky (another captain). I have no other explanation. I too think Najee is affected by his lisfranc injury from the summer. The difference between him and Warren currently is so obvious when you see Warren come in and in his few carries he plays decisively and explodes upfield. Najee looks hesitant and stuck in mud right now.

    he may be injured still he may never get any better than he is right now ...

    1 thing I know for sure if he is still hurt playing on it wont let it get better ( it may never get better )

    however a whole lot of hoopla was made of his rookie season like we struck gold with the pick but I never saw it 3.9 ypa isnt striking gold , call him a Bell cow if you want but a bell cow with a poor YPC average isnt winning you many games and wont close out games for you either so what good is he ?

    3 yards and a cloud of dust is 4th and 1 and a ton of punting and that is pretty much what we have been witnessing ( coupled with a pass short of the sticks )
    Last edited by Dwinsgames; 11-02-2022 at 08:08 AM.
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles didn't value him either , now he is a Stain at the Mistake by the Lake 3 teams in 4 years more of a shooting star than a superstar

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by dislocatedday View Post
    I think Tomlin must be afraid to reduce Najee's carries since Najee is a team captain, and they already demoted Trubisky (another captain). I have no other explanation. I too think Najee is affected by his lisfranc injury from the summer. The difference between him and Warren currently is so obvious when you see Warren come in and in his few carries he plays decisively and explodes upfield. Najee looks hesitant and stuck in mud right now.
    Would be funny if all the Captains were backup players…


    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler
    Enthroned Into The Good Old Boys Club - 2024

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    taking a RB in the first is always a bad idea, especially when your OL is a total mess. its equivalent to being on a budget and buying a new expensive set of wheels for your car that has a blown head gasket and the transmission is slipping.

    in todays NFL , a strong running game doesnt actually equate to seasonal success. look at last year. only 7 teams had a 1000 yard rusher. only 1 of those teams made the playoffs (bengals).
    what did jonathan taylors 1811 yds and 18 tds do for indy ? did it help them overcome a horrible QB and bad coaching ?

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Najee doesn't have any problem with throwing his teammates under the bus for his crappy play. I'm losing respect for him as a person as well as a player. He's trending toward Artie Burns level bust.

    “What y’all want me to do? I can’t do anything about that,” Harris said in the locker room. “Do I want four carries for 0 yards? No. But I can’t do everything. Do y’all want me to get the ball and block to open up the holes, too? There ain’t nothing there.”



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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    Najee doesn't have any problem with throwing his teammates under the bus for his crappy play. I'm losing respect for him as a person as well as a player. He's trending toward Artie Burns level bust.

    “What y’all want me to do? I can’t do anything about that,” Harris said in the locker room. “Do I want four carries for 0 yards? No. But I can’t do everything. Do y’all want me to get the ball and block to open up the holes, too? There ain’t nothing there.”


    someone should enlighten him that the UDRFA Warren seems to be doing just fine with his 5.3 ypc average
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles didn't value him either , now he is a Stain at the Mistake by the Lake 3 teams in 4 years more of a shooting star than a superstar

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    Najee doesn't have any problem with throwing his teammates under the bus for his crappy play. I'm losing respect for him as a person as well as a player. He's trending toward Artie Burns level bust.

    “What y’all want me to do? I can’t do anything about that,” Harris said in the locker room. “Do I want four carries for 0 yards? No. But I can’t do everything. Do y’all want me to get the ball and block to open up the holes, too? There ain’t nothing there.”


    I watched other RBs this weekend after the Steelers game, and some of these other RBs on other teams manage to squeeze through narrow holes/lanes. I saw Warren do it too in his limited carries.

    I am not saying the Steelers oline is always opening holes, but sometimes they are there and Najee either does not see it, or hesitates too long to run upfield through it.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    Najee doesn't have any problem with throwing his teammates under the bus for his crappy play. I'm losing respect for him as a person as well as a player. He's trending toward Artie Burns level bust.

    “What y’all want me to do? I can’t do anything about that,” Harris said in the locker room. “Do I want four carries for 0 yards? No. But I can’t do everything. Do y’all want me to get the ball and block to open up the holes, too? There ain’t nothing there.”


    While Harris isn’t playing well he’s also not wrong. I saw or heard some stat about how often he gets hit in the backfield and it was alarmingly high.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    While Harris isn’t playing well he’s also not wrong. I saw or heard some stat about how often he gets hit in the backfield and it was alarmingly high.

    much of that is of his own doing tho , he doesnt make quick decisions and hit the hole ... he waits around and the holes close and or guys come crashing through winning their blocks ... its the NFL you take what is there and live to play another down get the 3 yards instead of waiting around and getting none ....
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles didn't value him either , now he is a Stain at the Mistake by the Lake 3 teams in 4 years more of a shooting star than a superstar

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    much of that is of his own doing tho , he doesnt make quick decisions and hit the hole ... he waits around and the holes close and or guys come crashing through winning their blocks ... its the NFL you take what is there and live to play another down get the 3 yards instead of waiting around and getting none ....
    Certainly.

    But even taking that into account there’s a lot of failed blocks in the running game.

    I also think Warren’s YPC is inflated by situations.

    He may be better than Harris but if you swapped their snaps, I suspect Warren would see his YPC go down.

    It’s worth trying regardless.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Leaving “stats” out of it, just watching the games lets you know that Najee has poor vision and no burst. People, including himself, can keep making excuses, but he’s another Trent Richardson. Because he’s best buds with MT and goes over for Friday night dinners, I’m sure he’ll stay RB1 though.

    With Trubisky and Kenny you kind of had to bench one to see what the other could do. But with RB, we are seeing what Warren can do and there’s no reason not to elevate JW, other than non-performance reasons.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    Leaving “stats” out of it, just watching the games lets you know that Najee has poor vision and no burst. People, including himself, can keep making excuses, but he’s another Trent Richardson. Because he’s best buds with MT and goes over for Friday night dinners, I’m sure he’ll stay RB1 though.

    With Trubisky and Kenny you kind of had to bench one to see what the other could do. But with RB, we are seeing what Warren can do and there’s no reason not to elevate JW, other than non-performance reasons.
    ID bet 99 percent on forum would trade him for a first today, possibly a second and cut our losses. It’s a shame , I really wanted him to be next Derrick Henry but he’s the next Benny Snell. O line and OC certainly a factor but he’s never done anything jaw dropping. I’ll admit I liked him or Ettiene for first pick, but not sure Henry would have success on this team. So much blame to go around.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    Leaving “stats” out of it, just watching the games lets you know that Najee has poor vision and no burst. People, including himself, can keep making excuses, but he’s another Trent Richardson. Because he’s best buds with MT and goes over for Friday night dinners, I’m sure he’ll stay RB1 though.

    With Trubisky and Kenny you kind of had to bench one to see what the other could do. But with RB, we are seeing what Warren can do and there’s no reason not to elevate JW, other than non-performance reasons.



    I agree with many of the criticisms of Harris, but I still think he is a better back than he has looked for various reasons. What I don't understand is why he isn't using his size and power to his advantage. I assume that the coaches are telling him to hit the hole and use his power. He even does it in the passing game. They get him the ball and he starts dancing instead of getting up field and attacking tacklers that are often smaller than him. If the coaches are telling him how he should be using his gifts, why isn't he using them that way? And if they are coaching him to play like we all want him to play, and he's not listening, why does he still have the starting job?

    These are all questions that need to be answered.

    I have been a Tomlin fan and have supported and defended him for many years, but there are many questionable things happening on this team that point directly to coaching. Whether that is a position coach not getting it done, or the player not responding to the coaching.....that is on the head coach to make that right. At some point the players know exactly what is happening and they lose faith in the system, in the plan, in the decision-making, and in the coaching staff. There are signs that some of that may be happening right now. We're on the outside, so we don't know for sure. But there has been a lot of frustration and talking publicly about players being unhappy with the way things are being done. That isn't good.

    I'm not calling for anyone's head. I'm just saying that things are pointing in the wrong direction right now, and there are some questionable things showing up in many aspects of the team that point directly to the coaching staff.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Harris dancing is the kind of thing that happens on bad units. Guys try to be a superhero on every play instead of trusting stuff to work. Harris has tried just bulldozing people and his team still loses. To me it looks like he’s trying to juke 11 guys out on every play to make nothing into some sort of miracle big gain.

    This isn’t to say that he’s ever going to hit his pre draft projection. I’ve got no idea. Like I said elsewhere the putrid offense just makes evaluations as a fan totally murky.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Like I said elsewhere the putrid offense just makes evaluations as a fan totally murky.
    I can see that , I mean how do know if a WR is any good if the ball is never where it needs to be , how do you judge a linebacker if the big uglies don't give him space to operate and he always has to take on a tackle or guard instead of the RB or TE ... and those things would almost be welcome compared to what we have been witnessing ...
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles didn't value him either , now he is a Stain at the Mistake by the Lake 3 teams in 4 years more of a shooting star than a superstar

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    I agree with many of the criticisms of Harris, but I still think he is a better back than he has looked for various reasons. What I don't understand is why he isn't using his size and power to his advantage. I assume that the coaches are telling him to hit the hole and use his power. He even does it in the passing game. They get him the ball and he starts dancing instead of getting up field and attacking tacklers that are often smaller than him. If the coaches are telling him how he should be using his gifts, why isn't he using them that way? And if they are coaching him to play like we all want him to play, and he's not listening, why does he still have the starting job?

    These are all questions that need to be answered.

    I have been a Tomlin fan and have supported and defended him for many years, but there are many questionable things happening on this team that point directly to coaching. Whether that is a position coach not getting it done, or the player not responding to the coaching.....that is on the head coach to make that right. At some point the players know exactly what is happening and they lose faith in the system, in the plan, in the decision-making, and in the coaching staff. There are signs that some of that may be happening right now. We're on the outside, so we don't know for sure. But there has been a lot of frustration and talking publicly about players being unhappy with the way things are being done. That isn't good.

    I'm not calling for anyone's head. I'm just saying that things are pointing in the wrong direction right now, and there are some questionable things showing up in many aspects of the team that point directly to the coaching staff.
    QFT!


    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    From the Athletic:

    - On his 69 carries, Najee Harris is getting just 0.74 yards of running room before contact
    - On 19 carries, Jaylen Warren is getting 2.21 yards before contact

    According to TruMedia, Warren has seen six-man boxes on 15 of his 29 carries (51 percent) compared to Harris, who has seen a six-man box on just 22 percent of his touches.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    One way to figure that out. Put Warren in more. He can only run the play in front of him. Those stats are very selective. Check out the yards after contact stats.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    One way to figure that out. Put Warren in more. He can only run the play in front of him. Those stats are very selective. Check out the yards after contact stats.
    Do you have the yards after contact stats? I don't. If so, share.

    How are the stats selective? One compares ALL carries both running backs made and the other compares ALL carries both running backs made.

    It is possible for multiple things to be true at the same time. Warren may be a more effective RB than Harris. Harris may also be facing far crappier situations per play than Warren. It is not a mutually exclusive argument.

    The bottom line is that the Steelers offensive line is a joke and can't run block to save their lives. They may have had worse overall offensive lines, but this might be the worst run blocking unit to date.

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Do you have the yards after contact stats? I don't. If so, share.

    How are the stats selective? One compares ALL carries both running backs made and the other compares ALL carries both running backs made.

    It is possible for multiple things to be true at the same time. Warren may be a more effective RB than Harris. Harris may also be facing far crappier situations per play than Warren. It is not a mutually exclusive argument.

    The bottom line is that the Steelers offensive line is a joke and can't run block to save their lives. They may have had worse overall offensive lines, but this might be the worst run blocking unit to date.
    Re YAC, I read them in an article a couple days ago, I'll try to recall where.

    As for the o-line. I'll reserve my judgment on their run blocking until someone other than Najee is running the ball. That little dance move he did on 3rd and 2 is something that I see with him constantly. It makes me want to turn the TV off.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Warren has proven to be more elusive, as he now averages 3.31 yards per carry after contact, compared to 2.66 for Harris. He has forced nine missed tackles on 29 attempts, while Harris has forced just 22 on 108 carries. And Warren has seven gains of 10 yards or more, while Harris has just nine despite the heavier workload. All of that contributes to a discrepancy of two full yards in their per-carry average — Warren is at 5.3 while Harris is at just 3.3.

    https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2022/11/01/pff-grades-nfl-week-8-recap-highlights-analysis-jaylen-warren-najee-harris/stories/202211010086

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    Re: Better chance at hitting the lottery than Najee breaking 100 yards

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    Re YAC, I read them in an article a couple days ago, I'll try to recall where.

    As for the o-line. I'll reserve my judgment on their run blocking until someone other than Najee is running the ball. That little dance move he did on 3rd and 2 is something that I see with him constantly. It makes me want to turn the TV off.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Warren has proven to be more elusive, as he now averages 3.31 yards per carry after contact, compared to 2.66 for Harris. He has forced nine missed tackles on 29 attempts, while Harris has forced just 22 on 108 carries. And Warren has seven gains of 10 yards or more, while Harris has just nine despite the heavier workload. All of that contributes to a discrepancy of two full yards in their per-carry average — Warren is at 5.3 while Harris is at just 3.3.

    https://www.post-gazette.com/sports/...s/202211010086
    Ok. That is less of gap than I thought it would be.

    Harris is indeed a frustrating player at times. And it is clear that the fanbase is turning on him And so it goes with 1st round RBs that struggle to crack 50 yards a game.

    But, for me, Warren is having his stats inflated by running draws on potential passing situations, actually being used in flexible formations, and just better situations where Harris is being thrown to the wolves in bad situations, and obvious run calls where the defense tees off on totally overmatched offensive linemen, TEs, and WRs. I mean this is a running offense that calls multiple plays a game where someone like Gunner the Midget is responsible for setting the play-side edge of the blocking on a DE or LB. Really?

    Again...Harris may indeed stink. And it points out why the pick was never really a good idea. But...I think the system, the supporting cast, and then his own desire to make something out of nothing are all making it worse as well.

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