If they moved up to 7 to jump Atlanta for Willis I would be so, so upset. My fear is that the reality is that it’s quite possible because Tomlins man-crush on Willis is that strong and that blinding
I don’t think there’s ever been anything more clear in Steelers History than that…
Originally Posted by Dwinsgames
Enthroned Into The Good Old Boys Club - 2024
Colbert's man crush on Howell is just as evident 2 visits to NC games , at Pitt game , at Combine , at SR Bowl , at pro day , and then brought him into Pittsburgh for one of their 30 visits ...that is 7 times this year ( and someone had diner with him as well cant remember if it was Colbert or Tomlin )
Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. 4 teams in 5 years and traded twice in one off season
Hopefully Colbert leverages his impending retirement to not give any fucks, and tells Tomlin look, every time you get a hard-on for a player like this, we end up with Artie Burns or Sean Davis or Bud Dupree. "Amazing raw talent, needs coaching up," and you suck at coaching them up. You just do. So let me handle this one, and while you're banging your fist to Leek Willis, I'll draft a real player who we can actually use.
See you Space Cowboy ...
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
I would also be disappointed with the Steelers trading up and losing day2 picks in the process. If any trades are made I would rather move back and pick up an additional day 2 or early day 3 pick.
Intriguing question, IMO. IF the Steelers trade with the Lions and move back in the draft to pick 32 overall, does that put all of the top 5-6 QB prospects in play for you guys? That would be a value difference of 260 which is exactly the value of the Lions 3rd round pick at 66 overall. Lions would get the 20th overall pick, Steelers get the 32nd overall pick and the 66th overall pick. I think I would do this, take a QB at 32 then.
Array title="DesertSteel has a reputation beyond repute">
Howell can be had at 32. Possibly Ridder too. Definitely Corral. I’d be ok with those moves, in that preferred order.
If you are trading down for a QB...then that is a big sign that said QB is not really good enough to lead a team to playoff and championship success.
You trade up not down for franchise QBs. If they can get a guy by trading down...then I would rather my team just pass and wait it out another year.
Array title="DesertSteel has a reputation beyond repute">
So Howell will have a better career if you take him at 15 than at 32? All those misses from the top 10 didn’t get that memo, including Trubisky. Some of it has to do with other teams’ needs. Most teams have solved their QB need (at least temporarily). Plus there are two starter caliber QBs still on the market. These factors could push QBs down the board that you’d otherwise have to trade up for.
If they aren’t sure if the guy is franchise or not, it’s obviously better to trade down to accumulate picks and take the chance than moving up or sitting where you are for the same chance. It has happened that good QBs have been questionable have been found in later rounds.
Any QB taken at 20 is an EXTREME reach...
If you're a team that needs a QB and are like well....there is this guy that maybe if it was in the late first or mid second we would be okay with....then your scouting is telling you that the QB prospect likely lacks the upside necessary to develop into the type of high-level QB we have seen multiple recent SB winning teams have.
Obviously, where a guy gets drafted doesn't somehow turn a bad player into a good one or a good player into a bad one.
Those high round busts are just teams getting their scouting wrong. Their player personnel people had the wrong grade/projection on the player. Just as with the lower round guys that "hit" and turned into those players....scouts got it wrong. So...for advocating for that type of result from a trade down your arguing that a team should bank on its scouting department getting its projections wrong.
So as I see the argument:
1. Trade down to get a QB because the "value" isn't there until later in the first or the second.
2. That means that the scouting is "correct" on all of these guys.
So...why trade down and get a guy that the "scouting" is saying isn't good enough to lead a team to a SB? Or is the argument to draft a guy late in the hopes that your scouts got it wrong and the player beats his projection but just at a draft discount?
Honestly, this makes zero sense to me. Either a QB is good enough to be franchise QB or he isn't. And if he is, then it doesn't matter how high you draft him or how many picks you trade to get the chance to draft a guy. Having one of those high-end QBs is the most valuable asset in the entire NFL, maybe in all of sports. No price is too high.
Either a guy is worth it or he isn't. No middle ground. Because the middle ground is basically a souped up Mason Rudolph.
throw it all out the window ............
bottom line 32 teams got it wrong with Tom Brady ( 6 times ) selected with pick number 199, a compensatory pick, in the sixth round so after every team had a shot 6 times at him ....
every team in the NFL got it wrong once with Drew Brees , they all got it wrong with Carr , with Dak ( 4 times each ) hell he was the 8th QB drafted and he has been more successful than all that were drafted ahead of him ....
we could go on and on here but the reality is simple really ....
find a guy who checks all the boxes , surround him with the talent needed to succeed and in a system that suits his strengths and more often than not they will find success ...
the issues come into play is when teams give up to much draft capital to get the QB and and have a system in place that doesn't suit the QBs strengths and or they lack weapons and or protection and the kid gets thrown to the wolves and by seasons end is battered bruised and gun shy and never recovers
in short where you are drafted matters , the talent around you matters , the system matters ....
its no secret I am a Sam Howell fan but if he goes to a team like the lions his career is all but over before it begins unless he manages to somehow hang on like Stafford did but that is a rarity in itself .... if Howell goes to the Steelers , or some other team that has a good core he has a real shot of being special
Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. 4 teams in 5 years and traded twice in one off season
It all comes down to having your scouts nail their projection on a player. The scouts need to be correct. If they are, you can likely figure the rest of it out. If they are wrong, then the rest of it doesn't matter - you're still screwed.
I agree that situation, talent, system, etc can have a massive impact on the career arc of player. No doubt. But if you think a guy can excel when provided that, then again, just draft him as soon as you can and don't dither around on "value" arguments.
its still a business you still want to accrue as much "quality inventory" as possible for the least amount of cost ... the cheaper ( draft capital wise ) you can get a player the more talent you can surround him with ... so if you can trade back from 20 to 28 and snag an extra 3rd for doing so then you not only get your QB but perhaps also a WR or TE or O-Lineman to help protect him without using additional picks ( but you know this stuff already ) value isnt always what a guy can do its what everyone else needs at the time too " supply and demand "
Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. 4 teams in 5 years and traded twice in one off season
Array title="DesertSteel has a reputation beyond repute">
And sometimes a guy just falls for no reason. Aaron Rodgers and Dan Marino. Did the Packers and the Dolphins say “they must not be any good since they fell”? The draft is fluid especially when you’re in the 20s. You may have a guy #6 and he falls to you at #20. That doesn’t lessen his value.
These arguments about value are all well and good when we are talking any other position. But we are talking starting QB here. If you don't have a mediocre one, you aren't competing to win games. If you don't have an above average one, you aren't competing to win even one playoff game. And if you don't have an exceptional QB, you aren't competing to win a SB.
Getting an exceptional QB is all that matters. Without that, you are not playing the same sport as the teams that have one.
If your scouting people tell you that Prospect XYZ is an exceptional QB - then you get him as soon as you can and acquiring value is just out the window. You have to hope your scouting people got it right. If they didn't then you're all sunk.
- - - Updated - - -
Falling is far different than trading back to get a guy. The Packers didn't see Rodgers fall and say "Well, heck, lets trade back another 5-6 spots and see if we can get him there." No. They had Rodgers as the "guy" and when their turn came they pulled the trigger.
Array title="DesertSteel has a reputation beyond repute">
It’s not far different if you know he’s falling. Especially if you have two guys you like equally. If they have the same grade on Howell and Ridder and they can drop back five spots and still get one, how is that far different? It’s not.
You’re overthinking it. It’s simply we think QBa is this good, we think maybe he can be that good. We think the rest of the league has this feeling on the player. The value to get QBa at “this good” is better trading down and the value of QBa at “that good” is even better.
The other thing is if a team likes a player, they like a player and they are going to select him where they can. Perfect example was when the Seahawks selected Bruce Irvin in 2012 and were ridiculed for taking him too early. Turned out that he was easily worth that pick for Seattle.
It’s really not as involved as you are thinking.
As far as guys are good or not…Not true…otherwise you’d have teams taking these guys first overall.
Aaron Rodgers. Russel Wilson. Dan Marino. Tom Brady. Just four names of QBs that QB needy teams passed on. Wilson was selected and didn’t wow the Seahawks until training camp. We all know Brady’s story…
Joe Namath
Jim Plunkett (2)
Doug Williams
Jim McMahon
Jeff Hostetler
Mark Rypien
Trent Dilfer
Brad Johnson
Joe Flacco
Nick Foles
20% of Super Bowls were won with mediocre QBs.
Sure it helps to have a Star QB…but it’s possible to win without one as well.
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
The "trade value" for the Steelers' pick 20 equals the "trade value" for the Lions' pick 32 and pick 66. Does picking up that extra pick at 66 make drafting a QB in the first round more palatable?
This morning looking back at the question, it really doesn't to me. I'm still not a big fan of any of these QBs and would rather use those picks on blue chip defenders and a WR. I think the Steelers must draft a QB in this draft though. That being the case, if Willis is there at 20 draft him. If not, trade back to 32 and draft either Strong or Howell and pick up the additional 3rd round pick for your defender or WR. That would at least lessen the blow of not getting 'player X' on my wishlist.
One time within the last DECADE that happened and then we all saw Foles stink in multiple places since then. Eagles and Foles caught lightning in a bottle. That’s not a plan.
NFL teams are showing us that QB is the most important roster piece. Actions of Niners, Rams, and Browns are latest stark demonstrations of that.
Irvin was an example of a scouting department getting it "right". They accurately projected how that player would fit their system and were able to see what the rest of the league missed.
Those names are examples of teams getting it "wrong". Most of the franchises got their evaluations of those QBs wrong. And even a single season after they were drafted would have selected all of those players first overall.
It is simply about your player personnel people getting the evaluation correct. Value is meaningless if the player succeeds. Value only matters when a player doesn't meet expectations. Everyone knows what the trade up for Devin Bush cost because he isn't that good right now. Few remember what the trade for Polamalu cost because it doesn't matter - he was a steal at any price.
If you can trade down and get your guy...you are banking on all the scouts being wrong. Every other team has the guy pegged wrong and your own internal evals have the guy drastically undervalued. Honestly, if the "trade down" is the "best value" - I would rather take it to its logical extreme. Trade all the way out of the first round and stockpile future draft assets for when there is a guy your scouts actually like.
Trading down is not going to get you a franchise QB that leads a team to SB victories. Is there a chance? I mean I guess...anything is possible but the last several years of NFL actions have told us the exact opposite. But I am also told that Trubisky is good...so clearly I am in a minority on QBs.
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
From my view you have completely missed the question and taken this down a very different path. You're not wrong, just answering the wrong question I think.
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
I'm of the opinion it does change the draft strategy to trade down. It has to. More options are taken off the board which must put other options in their place on the board. That most likely means player position strategy as well. My strategy would be different with picks at 20, 52, and 84 vs picks at 32, 52, 66, and 84.
Array title="DesertSteel has a reputation beyond repute">
They only trade down if the are mathematically assured of still getting a guy on their board. That’s not settling.
I often misunderstand the assignment so to speak, so I'm sure I did.
I also have really odd opinions about the draft and value. This is true for all positions but super-duper true for QB.
The thing is that they have over 400 guys on their board. To pickup an extra pick in a draft with some depth at a few positions isnt the worst thing, IMO. But if somebody like Charles Cross or Kyle Hamilton is still there at 20, you dont trade down IMO. You turn in the card.
and lets not forget how poorly Ben played ( and won ) in his first SB .... he may as well have been on your list too because it was the poorest performance in a SB win in History but a win no less
Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. 4 teams in 5 years and traded twice in one off season
Absolutely
I saw an interesting query posed: If you could trade back to 32 and get 66 as well… but… you had to make the trade BEFORE the draft started, would you do it?
It’s not an easy choice, because what if a “top ten” player does indeed drop to 20… and we could have had him.
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
I think in terms of BPA in the 1st round 100% of the time. I don't see how one of these QBs is going to meet that standard at pick20. I don't think one of them meet it at pick 32 either, but acquiring the extra pick at 66 allows me some flexibility now I didn't have at 20. There is no hard fast rule to the draft. 32 teams and 32 drafting philosophies. And they all change somewhat year to year. And sometimes pick to pick. All we do on here is draft nerd banter that matters zero. But I enjoy it.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
