If the Steelers go QB at 20…

[Mojouw]

Since watching your own tape is the only way to develop an opinion on a potential NFL player...I watched a bunch of Pickett stuff since the draft.

I do agree with one negative thing that many other observers have picked up on. He seems to flee the pocket really quickly when there is pressure and instead of climbing in the pocket and taking a throw to beat the blitz he rolls one direction or the other looking to create on a broken play kinda thing. Seemed athletic enough to get away with it in college (but only for one year?) but I do not think he has the athleticism and arm strength to do that in the NFL. The posted video from the Miami game by Kurt Warner had some seemingly appropriate examples of this.

I also thought I saw him take a single look at his preferred target and then take off running more than I think he can get away with in the NFL. Hard to tell because I do not know what his reads were intended to be on these plays. But it is something people who claim to know have said to be on the look-out for and once it gets pointed out it was hard to not pick out a few more times than one might like.

Thoughts?

[86WARD]

Since watching your own tape is the only way to develop an opinion on a potential NFL player...I watched a bunch of Pickett stuff since the draft.

I do agree with one negative thing that many other observers have picked up on. He seems to flee the pocket really quickly when there is pressure and instead of climbing in the pocket and taking a throw to beat the blitz he rolls one direction or the other looking to create on a broken play kinda thing. Seemed athletic enough to get away with it in college (but only for one year?) but I do not think he has the athleticism and arm strength to do that in the NFL. The posted video from the Miami game by Kurt Warner had some seemingly appropriate examples of this.

I also thought I saw him take a single look at his preferred target and then take off running more than I think he can get away with in the NFL. Hard to tell because I do not know what his reads were intended to be on these plays. But it is something people who claim to know have said to be on the look-out for and once it gets pointed out it was hard to not pick out a few more times than one might like.

Thoughts?

Both very teachable things…

[DesertSteel]

Since watching your own tape is the only way to develop an opinion on a potential NFL player...I watched a bunch of Pickett stuff since the draft.

I do agree with one negative thing that many other observers have picked up on. He seems to flee the pocket really quickly when there is pressure and instead of climbing in the pocket and taking a throw to beat the blitz he rolls one direction or the other looking to create on a broken play kinda thing. Seemed athletic enough to get away with it in college (but only for one year?) but I do not think he has the athleticism and arm strength to do that in the NFL. The posted video from the Miami game by Kurt Warner had some seemingly appropriate examples of this.

I also thought I saw him take a single look at his preferred target and then take off running more than I think he can get away with in the NFL. Hard to tell because I do not know what his reads were intended to be on these plays. But it is something people who claim to know have said to be on the look-out for and once it gets pointed out it was hard to not pick out a few more times than one might like.

Thoughts?

Based on your observation, I struggle with trying to understand how he threw 25 TD passes against the blitz in 2021. The most in college football since 2014.

[Mojouw]

Based on your observation, I struggle with trying to understand how he threw 25 TD passes against the blitz in 2021. The most in college football since 2014.

Two or three things can reconcile the two observations.

One is that he was blitzed likely more than 25 times. So it is possible for a player to both win some and lose some.
Two - not all pressure has to be from a blitz. Sometimes one of the pass rushers just beats his man.
Three - it is possible to bail out of a pocket, run around and do some sandlot stuff and throw a TD. It is also possible to achieve an awesome result from a process that does not project to translate to the pro level.

Pickett also had the lowest percentage of the his entire draft class of throws into tight coverage that resulted in big plays. From what I have seen is he is not always "beating the blitz" in a structured manner. It is herky-jerky running around and then throwing up a pass. While I fully support that style of making big plays (Roethlisberger just rode it to the HOF) - I do not think Pickett has the strength, speed, and raw arm strength to do that in the NFL. I am not alone in my opinion. There are ample written and video break-downs of evaluators saying the same thing.

Has your own review shown something different?

[DesertSteel]

Two or three things can reconcile the two observations.

One is that he was blitzed likely more than 25 times. So it is possible for a player to both win some and lose some.
Two - not all pressure has to be from a blitz. Sometimes one of the pass rushers just beats his man.
Three - it is possible to bail out of a pocket, run around and do some sandlot stuff and throw a TD. It is also possible to achieve an awesome result from a process that does not project to translate to the pro level.

Pickett also had the lowest percentage of the his entire draft class of throws into tight coverage that resulted in big plays. From what I have seen is he is not always "beating the blitz" in a structured manner. It is herky-jerky running around and then throwing up a pass. While I fully support that style of making big plays (Roethlisberger just rode it to the HOF) - I do not think Pickett has the strength, speed, and raw arm strength to do that in the NFL. I am not alone in my opinion. There are ample written and video break-downs of evaluators saying the same thing.

Has your own review shown something different?

I’ve only watched about 3 games live this year and then mostly highlights, which obviously only show the positive. I’d like to find the time to watch some every throw videos. If you have any links, post em up and I’ll check them out. I was so focused on Malik predraft that I watched more of him.

EDIT: watched the Tenn game - every throw. Play calling was very conservative in the beginning, but he started to hit his receivers and get in a rhythm. His accuracy was very good. Went to his 2nd/3rd options a few times. Nice back shoulder throw. Made plays with his feet and showed toughness running it in near the goal line. He did scramble a bit, getting out of the pocket under pressure. But you can't see what's downfield to know if everyone was covered. No INTs and a very well managed game where they put up 41 points. 24/26 for 285 2/0

[Mojouw]

There was the 2 part video review that Warner put out. Someone posted somewhere. It was helpful because Warner drew little doodles to explain his points.

I’ve been leaning on the rabbit hole of typing “Pickett draft” into YouTube and watching what non highlights I can find.

[teegre]

Roll with Hasselbeck. If Mahomes Jr. drops to the low teens, trade your entire draft to acquire him. Until then, go deep inti the playoffs and hope you get a couple of defensive splash plays (e.g. Harrison’s interception-return) to take this team over the edge. Luckily, we have the NFL’s current iteration of the “splash-play phenom” wearing 90 for us.