all the talk of "no great QB in this class" brings me to this

[Dwinsgames]

A late bloomer, Allen received no interest from FBS programs after his high school career. He signed with Reedley Community College in California for the 2014 season, throwing for 26 touchdowns and 285 yards a game (with 66 rushing yards per contest) in his lone season there. Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl saw Allen's talent, wondering if he could be another Carson Wentz, the number two overall pick for the Philadelphia Eagles who he recruited and coached at North Dakota State before moving to Laramie. Allen only got a chance to play in two games (4-of-6, 51 yards passing; 3 rushes, 40 yards) for the Cowboys in 2015, starting once, before breaking his right clavicle and taking a medical redshirt. His sophomore season, on the other hand, was healthy and productive. The Cowboys made the Mountain West Conference Championship game with his leadership in 14 starts, completing 56 percent of his passes (209-of-373) throwing for 3,203 yards and 28 touchdowns. That completion percentage and his 15 interceptions showed that his game needs to be tamed, and those concerns were only exacerbated in 2017. Allen was an honorable mention all-conference pick as a junior, but he finished 72nd in the country in passing efficiency by completing just 56.3 percent of his passes (152-of-270) for just 1,812 yards and 16 touchdowns against six interceptions. Allen struggled against Power Five foes Iowa (23-of-40, 174 yards, 2 INT) and Oregon (9-of-24, 64 yards, INT). He missed the last two regular season games with an injury to his throwing shoulder but returned for the Cowboys' bowl win over Central Michigan (11-of-19, 154 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT).

Overview
Likely be the biggest boom-or-bust quarterback prospect in the draft. Allen's size and arm talent are prototypical for early first-round picks, but it's rare to find a quarterback with such a low college completion rate become a successful pro. Allen's receivers struggled to separate, but there were plenty of times where his lack of anticipation and post-snap plan did him in. Allen can make some truly special throws, but his ability to improve the mental part of his game will determine whether he's a good NFL starter or just another big, strong-armed guy.

Strengths

• Prototype frame for pocket passer
• Sturdy base allows him to shake off sacks and extend plays
• Rare arm strength and overall arm talent
• Has variety of release points if needed
• Can uncork suddenly when it breaks open
• Able to thread the needle with a rocket launcher
• Makes throws that no other quarterback in college can make
• Excellent thrower of deep outs
• Able to outpace safeties to deep sideline throws
• Aggressive pump-fakes open double moves
• Turns into competent traffic director when scrambling
• Can roll right and fling it down the field with impressive velocity and placement
• Asked to read the entire field
• No throw is too challenging
• Has arm strength and mobility to create explosive plays when play goes off-schedule
• Ability to challenge safeties over the top could help running games
• Attacks intermediate windows with pretty good precision when allowed to sit down in the pocket
• Has experience under center and operating in play-action passing attack
• Willing to pull it and move the chains with his legs
• Has experience in poor weather

Weaknesses

• Never had completion rate higher than 56 percent in either season as a starter
• Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet
• May have too much hero in his blood
• Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it
• Takes too many chances with low percentage throws
• Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball
• Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short
• Will baby the deep throws at times
• Field-reading is spotty
• Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop
• Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing
• Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally
• Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused
• Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers
• Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket
• Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver

who here wouldn't take this guy ??? these "experts routinely get it wrong "

use your own eyes watch tape and see if there is talent out there that YOU like ... ( note I said tape not highlights )

lots of other guys who fit the same mold where the "experts " where dead ass wrong and I will be posting some in this thread just to further prove my point

[Mojouw]

Ohhh....I'm in. From: https://walterfootball.com/scoutingr...17pmahomes.php

"In this draft analyst's opinion, I would grade Mahomes as a second-round pick. That is the same grade the NFL draft advisory board gave him. A general manger of a NFC team said they had a fourth-round grade on Mahomes, but felt he had some tools to work with. That same team has a third- to fourth-round grade on Deshaun Watson, a fifth-round grade on Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya, and a second-round grade on Mitch Trubisky. That team is a tough grader, overall. Another NFC team said they had Mahomes low - into Day 3 - and weren't hot on him as a prospect, but they also have a young franchise quarterback, so they aren't interested in quarterbacks until the late rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft.

Sources from one AFC team said they had a second-round grade on Mahomes and viewed him similarly to Derek Carr coming out of Fresno State. They are very high on Mahomes and think he could become a hot prospect in the leadup to the draft. The scouting director of another AFC team said they liked Mahomes. They graded him in the third round, but don't think he is as good of a prospect as Carr. Another AFC team said they also had a second-day grade on Mahomes."

[Dwinsgames]

If you're a quarterback in Texas running the spread attack that is prevalent throughout the state, playing for Texas Tech is a natural fit. The son of the former major league pitcher of the same name has a big-league arm, and used it quite a bit in high school (4,619 yards, 50 TDs as a senior) and more than anyone else in college football the past two seasons. Mahomes began his career by starting the Red Raiders' final four games his true freshman year (1,547 yards, 16 TDs, four INTs, 56.8 completion percentage), one of those games being a 598-yard, six-touchdown effort against a top-10 team in Baylor. He earned honorable mention All-Big 12 notice for the second straight year in 2015, starting every game and leading the FBS with 393 yards of total offense per game (4,653 yards, 36 TDs, 15 INTs, 63.5 completion pct). Mahomes was a second-team all-conference pick in his final year with Tech in 2016, leading the FBS with 421 passing yards per game (5,052 total, 41 TDs, 10 INTs, 65.7 completion pct). He's also been a threat with his big-bodied frame and strong legs the past three years, scoring 22 times on the ground.

Overview
Mahomes is a big, confident quarterback who brings a variety of physical tools to the party, but he's developed some bad habits and doesn't have a very repeatable process as a passer. Mahomes' ability to improvise and extend plays can lead to big plays for his offense, but he will have to prove he can operate with better anticipation and be willing to take what the defense gives him in order to win from the pocket. Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he's a high ceiling, low floor prospect.
Strengths

• Possesses NFL body type for work inside and out of the pocket
• Has an undeniable swagger and confidence to his game
• Accuracy has improved in each season since his freshman year
• Naturally accurate in his every day throws
• Comfortable challenging defenders in space
• Has arm strength and fearlessness to attack the cover-2 voids down the sideline
• Can make deep, field side throws
• Cranks up velocity to fit passes into tight windows
• Former pitcher who propels hips through his release with aggressive torque and never gets cheated on his follow-through
• Can deliver strikes from a variety of arm angles
• Expedites release on RPOs (run-pass option) or when pressure is mounting in pocket
• Puts effort into play-action fakes
• Relaxed and effective when throwing on the move
• Can be a legitimate dual-threat in a boot-action offense
• Improved his eye manipulation over the years and will eyeball linebackers to hold them while patterns unfold around them
• Has pocket mobility to escape pressure and the poise to extend plays and find alternate targets
• Hands are very strong
• Can pump and reset without issues
• Competes as a runner and is willing to go the extra mile for the first down

Weaknesses

• Can be inconsistent in his approach
• Needs to play inside the offense and show more discipline
• Too eager to go big game hunting
• Ravenous appetite for the explosive play can also bring unwanted trouble
• Willingness to default to playground style appears to limit his ability to get into a consistent rhythm
• Needs to improve anticipatory reads and learn to take what the defense gives him
• Decision making can go from good to bad in a moment's notice
• Operates from a narrow base and allows his upper body and arm to race ahead of his feet
• Has a dip and wind-up in his standard release
• Explosive delivery and follow-through causes some throws to sail
• Needs better touch on intermediate and deep balls
• Carries ball a little low in the pocket
• Impatient
• Will leave pocket prematurely rather than standing in and winning in rhythm
• Better as a scrambler than pure runner
• Looked a little less mobile in the open field this season

[polamalubeast]

It's Josh Allen, so yes we can have hope, but it's important that it's also realistic....does the next draft have a boom or bust prospect at the QB position?

[Dwinsgames]

"JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that fanbase, that football team -- on the practice field, in that locker room. Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that's certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league. ...You're talking about a 2-3 year period once he's under center. Look out because the skill level that he has is certainly John Elway-like." -- ESPN's Mel Kiper

"The workout Russell had was Star Wars. It was unbelievable." Then-Tampa Bay Bucs coach Jon Gruden

"If you had to choose a quarterback, who would you pick, JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn? Both have strengths and glaring weaknesses. It goes down to which guy is most coachable. I might take Quinn for that reason. But, pure skill with a ton of work to do, it would be Russell. If you put a gun to my head, I would pick Russell. But he comes with a lot of risk." -- ESPN's Merril Hoge (both guys sucked )

"He's like a video game. There's not a throw he can't make and there's some he can make I'm not sure anyone else can make. That's exciting. But how many times does that happen in a game, making those long throws. Maybe twice in 16 games. I know seeing someone do that is a scout's dream, but it doesn't happen much. ... He seems very first class, very easy to get along with. No doubt he was a great leader [at LSU]. That's why everybody wants him now." -- Then-Oakland Raiders coach Lane Kiffin

"This year, I can't get over how good and talented JaMarcus Russell is. It just blew me away. If I had the first, second, third, fourth, fifth pick in that draft, I would be tearing apart his personal life trying to figure out whether or not I could trust this kid with $10-million ... From a physical skill set perspective, I've never seen a college quarterback with more ability than Russell. You put the tape on and it's frightening. The only thing that's going to keep [Russell] from being great is him. What it comes down to is you've got to figure out whether or not this kid wants to be the best quarterback in football. If he wants to be the best quarterback in football, he can be." -- NFL Network's Mike Mayock

"I've never seen a kid that big who can sit there and just have people hanging on him and make the throws he can make. He reminds me a little bit of Daunte Culpepper, but a little bigger. I'm sure he's going to continue to be a great player." -- Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak

"If you asked me who has the most upside, I would say Russell. If the question is who is going to be best the next three years, I'd say it's [Brady] Quinn." -- NFL Draft Advisor Gil Brandt

The film that we've watched has impressed more and more. The guy can wing it but seems to have that real feel for the game, and a presence. He looks like he could come into any system and be ready.'' -- Then-Detroit Lions coach Rod Marinelli

JaMarcus Russell, my man. The Raiders finally get their big arm. And he's a good kid, strong kid, smart kid. He'll be a big-time player. If I'm the Raiders, that's who I pick. That's pretty easy." -- FOX's Terry Bradshaw

- - - Updated - - -

2018	1	1	1	1	Baker Mayfield	Browns	Oklahoma
	2	1	3	3	Sam Darnold	Jets	USC
	3	1	7	7	Josh Allen	Bills	Wyoming
	4	1	10	10	Josh Rosen	Cardinals	UCLA

[polamalubeast]

Justin Hebert....

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/justin...9-ce41d700202a

[Dwinsgames]

2017	1	1	2	2	Mitchell Trubisky	Bears	North Carolina
	2	1	10	10	Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	Texas Tech
	3	1	12	12	Deshaun Watson	Texans	Clemson
	4	2	20	52	DeShone Kizer	Browns	Notre Dame

- - - Updated - - -

2016	1	1	1	1	Jared Goff	Rams	California
	2	1	2	2	Carson Wentz	Eagles	North Dakota State
	3	1	26	26	Paxton Lynch	Broncos	Memphis
	4	2	20	51	Christian Hackenberg	Jets	Penn State

I remember folks talking about Hackenberg and Lynch as guys who would be stars in this league , Goff and Wentz got loads of talk as being special talents ( sorry if I still do not see it )
- - - Updated - - -

2015	1	1	1	1	Jameis Winston	Buccaneers	Florida State
	2	1	2	2	Marcus Mariota	Titans	Oregon

these guys where both cant miss prospects according to the talking head "experts" those experts where wrong

[polamalubeast]

2017	1	1	2	2	Mitchell Trubisky	Bears	North Carolina
	2	1	10	10	Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	Texas Tech
	3	1	12	12	Deshaun Watson	Texans	Clemson
	4	2	20	52	DeShone Kizer	Browns	Notre Dame

It will haunt the bears for life

We often talk about teams like the Steelers, Broncos, Bills, Dolphins etc that they've been waiting or still waiting a long time for a true franchise QB, but the bears haven't had a true franchise QB since the 1940s!... They had the chance in 2017 but...

[Dwinsgames]

It will haunt the bears for life

We often talk about teams like the Steelers, Broncos, Bills, Dolphins etc that they've been waiting or still waiting a long time for a true franchise QB, but the bears haven't had a true franchise QB since the 1940s!... They had the chance in 2017 but...

yeah all those guys had knocks by the experts . Trubisky was a 1 year starter with limited reps

Mahomes was a low percentage passer who was 3 years away from learning to play the game at a high enough level to be a competent pro ( started final week of rookie season threw for over 300 yards and a W as a 1st time starter and KC never looked back )

[Shoes]

Ohhh....I'm in. From: https://walterfootball.com/scoutingr...17pmahomes.php

"In this draft analyst's opinion, I would grade Mahomes as a second-round pick. That is the same grade the NFL draft advisory board gave him. A general manger of a NFC team said they had a fourth-round grade on Mahomes, but felt he had some tools to work with. That same team has a third- to fourth-round grade on Deshaun Watson, a fifth-round grade on Miami quarterback Brad Kaaya, and a second-round grade on Mitch Trubisky. That team is a tough grader, overall. Another NFC team said they had Mahomes low - into Day 3 - and weren't hot on him as a prospect, but they also have a young franchise quarterback, so they aren't interested in quarterbacks until the late rounds of the 2017 NFL Draft.

Sources from one AFC team said they had a second-round grade on Mahomes and viewed him similarly to Derek Carr coming out of Fresno State. They are very high on Mahomes and think he could become a hot prospect in the leadup to the draft. The scouting director of another AFC team said they liked Mahomes. They graded him in the third round, but don't think he is as good of a prospect as Carr. Another AFC team said they also had a second-day grade on Mahomes."

How would you grade Pickett?

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingr...22KPickett.php

[Mojouw]

How would you grade Pickett?

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingr...22KPickett.php

No idea. I haven't watched him play. Nor have I really watched any of these guys.

I do know that I am suspicious of guys that take their entire college eligibility to figure it out. But that isn't a tangible read on things at all.

I will say that what I liked about Mahomes and Prescott when they came out is that even when the entire offensive plan disintegrated around them, they seemed to find ways to make positive things happen. Often times incredibly positive things happen. I think that "skill" is impossible to quantify and can not be "coached".

But picture all the QBs that you consider "great" in your mind. Then picture the blocking falling apart and the pocket collapsing...what does that QB do? Ok...yeah they eat a sack. But sometimes, the great ones make magic stuff happen. Contrast that with Kirk Cousins or Jimmy G or Baker Mayfield...they do not make magic happen.

For me, that is something I think about when reading and looking at what others have to say on all these prospects.

[Dwinsgames]

How would you grade Pickett?

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingr...22KPickett.php

personally I would avoid him ..

footwork is good ...

ball placement is good

hand size scares the living hell out of me in last 37 years he has the 3rd smallest hands of all 370 + draftable QB'S in a league that ball hunts and makes a consorted effort to punch out balls 8 1/4 inch hands doesnt do it for me ...

was just a guy until his redshirt year , that is something I just do not trust its liken to a contract year for me ....

[Dwinsgames]

just look up reactions to Seattle drafting Russell Wilson !!

[Shoes]

personally I would avoid him ..

footwork is good ...

ball placement is good

hand size scares the living hell out of me in last 37 years he has the 3rd smallest hands of all 370 + draftable QB'S in a league that ball hunts and makes a consorted effort to punch out balls 8 1/4 inch hands doesnt do it for me ...

was just a guy until his redshirt year , that is something I just do not trust its liken to a contract year for me ....

My hope is that the Steelers will avoid them all.

[Edman]

Mahomes sat for the entirety of the 2017 season learning the game from one of the best Offensive coaches in the NFL.

Allen was bust city in 2019. Everything they said he was coming out of the draft was true. Big arm but but a mediocre passer.

But picture all the QBs that you consider "great" in your mind. Then picture the blocking falling apart and the pocket collapsing...what does that QB do? Ok...yeah they eat a sack. But sometimes, the great ones make magic stuff happen. Contrast that with Kirk Cousins or Jimmy G or Baker Mayfield...they do not make magic happen.

The Quarterback needs an competent Offensive Line to succeed. Even Ben couldn't do much because he was too busy peeling himself off the turf.

The Chiefs invested in O-Line this last offseason for Mahomes because for all of his magic could not escape from the Bucs Defense in Super Bowl 55. The Chiefs were embarrassed. I mean why would they? Mahomes is one of the greats and they don't need to invest in anything! He can do it all by himself! That "QB is Superman" line of thinking is why Dan Marino is ringless and Aaron Rodgers is sitting at one, and why Cam Newton won't. It also prematurely ended the career of Andrew Luck. A special quarterback can cover up some of your teams' flaws, but more often than not it comes back to bite you. It's true that that stuff is intangible and cannot be coached, but its not sustainable. Justin Herbert is an amazing talent, but the team surrounding him is mediocre. At home. No playoffs again.

Don't get me wrong. Would I prefer a Stallion who could run like lightning and has a missile launcher for an arm to a dude like Mason Rudolph? Definitely. But guys like that aren't easy to find and comes with its own caveat.

[polamalubeast]

Of course it takes a good team around the QB if a team want to be a true contender,but this is more easy when you have a true franchise QB,since he is more able to overcome some weak point of your team

The chiefs were a good team before Mahomes but they were not a true contender....since this time,a true contender,year after year

[Fire Goodell]

Of course it takes a good team around the QB if a team want to be a true contender,but this is more easy when you have a true franchise QB,since he is more able to overcome some weak point of your team

The chiefs were a good team before Mahomes but they were not a true contender....since this time,a true contender,year after year

You could say the same about the Steelers before and after Ben. With QBs like Stewart and Maddox we made the playoffs every year. 2 years after drafting Ben, championship

[polamalubeast]

You could say the same about the Steelers before and after Ben. With QBs like Stewart and Maddox we made the playoffs every year. 2 years after drafting Ben, championship

And we have so many examples of that....Like the current 49ers team is close to be a A+ roster and they have in my opinion a great HC,but if they don't win the super bowl this year,likely it will be because that Jimmy G did not step up when it was the time,like 2 years ago in the fourth quarter against the chiefs in the super bowl...I hope for them that Lance will be the answer for the future

[Edman]

You could say the same about the Steelers before and after Ben. With QBs like Stewart and Maddox we made the pro bowl every year. 2 years after drafting Ben, championship

Do I really need to address the elephant in the room on this one? Nah.

[Orion]

Here’s a chart of the number of QBs selected by overall pick from 2000-2020:


- - - Updated - - -


How QB Success Rate Is Tied To Draft Position



https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...2021-nfl-draft

[Steeler-in-west]

"JaMarcus Russell is going to immediately energize that fanbase, that football team -- on the practice field, in that locker room. Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that's certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league. ...You're talking about a 2-3 year period once he's under center. Look out because the skill level that he has is certainly John Elway-like." -- ESPN's Mel Kiper

"The workout Russell had was Star Wars. It was unbelievable." Then-Tampa Bay Bucs coach Jon Gruden

"If you had to choose a quarterback, who would you pick, JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn? Both have strengths and glaring weaknesses. It goes down to which guy is most coachable. I might take Quinn for that reason. But, pure skill with a ton of work to do, it would be Russell. If you put a gun to my head, I would pick Russell. But he comes with a lot of risk." -- ESPN's Merril Hoge (both guys sucked )

"He's like a video game. There's not a throw he can't make and there's some he can make I'm not sure anyone else can make. That's exciting. But how many times does that happen in a game, making those long throws. Maybe twice in 16 games. I know seeing someone do that is a scout's dream, but it doesn't happen much. ... He seems very first class, very easy to get along with. No doubt he was a great leader [at LSU]. That's why everybody wants him now." -- Then-Oakland Raiders coach Lane Kiffin

"This year, I can't get over how good and talented JaMarcus Russell is. It just blew me away. If I had the first, second, third, fourth, fifth pick in that draft, I would be tearing apart his personal life trying to figure out whether or not I could trust this kid with $10-million ... From a physical skill set perspective, I've never seen a college quarterback with more ability than Russell. You put the tape on and it's frightening. The only thing that's going to keep [Russell] from being great is him. What it comes down to is you've got to figure out whether or not this kid wants to be the best quarterback in football. If he wants to be the best quarterback in football, he can be." -- NFL Network's Mike Mayock

"I've never seen a kid that big who can sit there and just have people hanging on him and make the throws he can make. He reminds me a little bit of Daunte Culpepper, but a little bigger. I'm sure he's going to continue to be a great player." -- Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak

"If you asked me who has the most upside, I would say Russell. If the question is who is going to be best the next three years, I'd say it's [Brady] Quinn." -- NFL Draft Advisor Gil Brandt

The film that we've watched has impressed more and more. The guy can wing it but seems to have that real feel for the game, and a presence. He looks like he could come into any system and be ready.'' -- Then-Detroit Lions coach Rod Marinelli

JaMarcus Russell, my man. The Raiders finally get their big arm. And he's a good kid, strong kid, smart kid. He'll be a big-time player. If I'm the Raiders, that's who I pick. That's pretty easy." -- FOX's Terry Bradshaw

- - - Updated - - -

2018	1	1	1	1	Baker Mayfield	Browns	Oklahoma
	2	1	3	3	Sam Darnold	Jets	USC
	3	1	7	7	Josh Allen	Bills	Wyoming
	4	1	10	10	Josh Rosen	Cardinals	UCLA

Russell had everybody fooled. Guys like him just want one payday in a first contract and they're off to vacation - they have no intention to work hard for 10-12 years. How do you determine who really wants to work hard and who really doesn't before you commit to them with your number 1 pick? Have an under cover psychologist sit at the dinner table meeting? I think Ryan Leaf with all the talent in the world was all the rage too. The list is long.

"You got to want to win.......there are some born losers out there, i really believe that"
Bobby Layne

I still think you got to see how these QB's respond to a bad play or bad game in college. Do they fight back? Maybe its not foolproof either but its something.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

yeah all those guys had knocks by the experts . Trubisky was a 1 year starter with limited reps

)

Exactly. Trubisky looked the part, but he was a 1 year wonder that didnt seem to have that competitive fight or knack to do the right thing when the going got tough. I remember that in his bowl game against Stanford that he had a couple chances to win the game and threw an INT and got sacked to push them out of FG range.

So Trubisky was a 1 year wonder that wilted against Stanford in the Sun Bowl, while DeShaun Watson was putting up 300 yard passing games and winning National chip vs Alabama...and some thought Trubisky was the better prospect. SMFH

[steelreserve]

Here’s a chart of the number of QBs selected by overall pick from 2000-2020:


- - - Updated - - -


How QB Success Rate Is Tied To Draft Position



https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles...2021-nfl-draft

I think this chart says it all. For one thing, you just never know. And outside of that, the success rate is roughly tied to where guys are drafted. Quarterback has got to be the most scrutinized, intensely analyzed position by everyone in the entire league before the draft, and it's no surprise they mostly know what they're doing.

The one exception? When teams reach for a QB because they're desperate. Probably why you see proportionally more busts in that 2-5 and 6-10 range instead of a perfect linear trend - that's where you go when you make a big trade and overdraft a guy.

With all that in mind, odds are there are 1 or 2 good QBs in this draft. Which ones, who knows. But if we are honest with ourselves and not taking a flyer overreacting a guy who is really a R2 talent because we "have to," we have about a 50-50 chance of being right. Personally, I hope we can sign at least an average starter before the draft and take some of the pressure off, it will allow us to go into it with clear heads.

[Steeler-in-west]

Are O'Donnell and Kordell considered "Hits"?

[Dwinsgames]

I would be interested in knowing the exact criteria used to determine hit or bust ....

I mean we have Lobster claws as a #1 over all and what 6 years later he is still in the league and has started many games ... but to me he is not a hit not at that amount of draft capital ... as a 3rd or 4th rounder yeah ok I can see it but not for what #1 over all is worth via trade during draft week

[Mojouw]

Mahomes sat for the entirety of the 2017 season learning the game from one of the best Offensive coaches in the NFL.

Allen was bust city in 2019. Everything they said he was coming out of the draft was true. Big arm but but a mediocre passer.



The Quarterback needs an competent Offensive Line to succeed. Even Ben couldn't do much because he was too busy peeling himself off the turf.

The Chiefs invested in O-Line this last offseason for Mahomes because for all of his magic could not escape from the Bucs Defense in Super Bowl 55. The Chiefs were embarrassed. I mean why would they? Mahomes is one of the greats and they don't need to invest in anything! He can do it all by himself! That "QB is Superman" line of thinking is why Dan Marino is ringless and Aaron Rodgers is sitting at one, and why Cam Newton won't. It also prematurely ended the career of Andrew Luck. A special quarterback can cover up some of your teams' flaws, but more often than not it comes back to bite you. It's true that that stuff is intangible and cannot be coached, but its not sustainable. Justin Herbert is an amazing talent, but the team surrounding him is mediocre. At home. No playoffs again.

Don't get me wrong. Would I prefer a Stallion who could run like lightning and has a missile launcher for an arm to a dude like Mason Rudolph? Definitely. But guys like that aren't easy to find and comes with its own caveat.

Absolutely. Every player needs a strong environment and surrounding team in order to thrive and experience success.

But the original question was about how I would "grade" a QB prospect. And looking for superhero capabilities should be part of that evaluation.

And you are further correct in that just because you got a superhero at QB doesn't mean you can stop building out the rest of your roster. You need to get that QB the best supporting cast possible.

But...if we are only discussing QB evaluations...I have little interest in some guy that is all nice and boringly fundamentally sound and doesn't make mistakes and all that. That's Cousins or Bridgewater or someone like that. I, in my role as head of an NFL team, would be taking big swings for QBs that COULD BE a superhero.

For instance, most football fans I hang out with all were astonished at how long it took Russell Wilson to get drafted. When he was at NC State, he was the entire offense on a terrible team. Then he transferred to UW and elevated a strong team to another level. Whenever the play did break down, and despite the best supporting cast that will happen, Wilson pulled a rabbit out of his hat and made something happen. But he was short...so the NFL passed on him for a bunch of rounds. That is dumb and something I will never understand.

Long way of saying....I kinda see what DWins is saying here. The same people who are telling us there are no great QBs are the same people who miss great QBs every couple of years.

[Orion]

Are O'Donnell and Kordell considered "Hits"?

well...in the article he is calling jared goff a bust despite making 2 probowls and getting a 2nd huge contract.

[Dwinsgames]

Mahomes sat for the entirety of the 2017 season learning the game from one of the best Offensive coaches in the NFL.

Allen was bust city in 2019. Everything they said he was coming out of the draft was true. Big arm but but a mediocre passer.



The Quarterback needs an competent Offensive Line to succeed. Even Ben couldn't do much because he was too busy peeling himself off the turf.

The Chiefs invested in O-Line this last offseason for Mahomes because for all of his magic could not escape from the Bucs Defense in Super Bowl 55. The Chiefs were embarrassed. I mean why would they? Mahomes is one of the greats and they don't need to invest in anything! He can do it all by himself! That "QB is Superman" line of thinking is why Dan Marino is ringless and Aaron Rodgers is sitting at one, and why Cam Newton won't. It also prematurely ended the career of Andrew Luck. A special quarterback can cover up some of your teams' flaws, but more often than not it comes back to bite you. It's true that that stuff is intangible and cannot be coached, but its not sustainable. Justin Herbert is an amazing talent, but the team surrounding him is mediocre. At home. No playoffs again.

Don't get me wrong. Would I prefer a Stallion who could run like lightning and has a missile launcher for an arm to a dude like Mason Rudolph? Definitely. But guys like that aren't easy to find and comes with its own caveat.

ACTUALLY .... Mahomes started week 17 for KC his rookie year 22/35/284 yards and got the W

[Orion]

I would be interested in knowing the exact criteria used to determine hit or bust ....

I mean we have Lobster claws as a #1 over all and what 6 years later he is still in the league and has started many games ... but to me he is not a hit not at that amount of draft capital ... as a 3rd or 4th rounder yeah ok I can see it but not for what #1 over all is worth via trade during draft week

he addresses that in the article.

Let’s use Pro-Football-Reference.com’s weighted career approximate value (CarAV), which rewards a player for his contribution to a team’s points scored and prevented as well as overall performance in other key statistics.CarAV is normalized so that the position of the player does not matter.
Astute readers have no doubt noticed that there must be overlap between “Pro Bowls” and “Busts.” Well, welcome to the world of NFL QBs. Is Jared Goff a “Pro Bowler” for the Rams? Yes. Twice as a matter of fact. Was he a bust? Of course. Setting up rules that define a bust is hard. Goff even signed a second contract with the Rams, but it’s unfair to say that made him a successful pick. For that reason, the key column is just raw CarAV.

[DesertSteel]

I've always held to the belief to take a QB in the draft every year and some drafts two. Eventually, you strike gold.