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Thread: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

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    The voice of reason Array title="GoSlash27 has a reputation beyond repute"> GoSlash27's Avatar

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    My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    I just realized that I haven't made my prediction this year. Those of you that know me know that I have a (thus far) unbroken correct prediction streak. I feel confident enough to say this 1 week out:

    I expect Donald Trump to win reelection handily, barring some sudden bombshell in the coming week.

    I realize that this is in total opposition to what the polls suggest, but if we learned anything 4 years ago, it's that the polls are worthless.
    Instead, I'm looking at more fundamental metrics and indicators. Trump is the incumbent with a 56% approval on the economy. His base enthusiasm is even higher than it was 4 years ago. Say what you will about Hillary (trust me I do), but she did actually have some base enthusiasm. Biden has none.
    Party registration is through the roof for Republicans, and is diminishing for the Dems.
    Early vote results are actually favoring Trump.

    Most importantly, I'm looking at where each campaign is sinking their efforts. Trump is 100% on the offensive, making more and more stops in places he narrowly lost last time, and less time in places where he narrowly won.
    Biden, OTOH, is focusing his efforts (such as they are) in places that he should already own in order to have a realistic shot. He's on full defense and the "blue wall" is crumbling around him.

    So that's my prediction. We'll see how well it holds up next week.
    "You've heard people brag about 'being in the zone'. They don't know what the Hell being in the zone is about. I played in the NFL for 15 years and I was only in the zone that one time." - "Mean" Joe Greene on the 1974 playoff victory over Oakland

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    Senior Member Array title="st33lersguy has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    As far as polling, pollsters that were accurate in 2016 had Trump up.

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    Senior Member Array title="cubanstogie has a reputation beyond repute"> cubanstogie's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    My prediction and hope is Trump wins handily and Tom444 leaves this forum spending his last few months on earth playing bingo and looking at National Geographic. Im still deciding if I want to put some cash on Trump to win though.

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    Senior Member Array title="st33lersguy has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Honestly it seems more and more like the Democrats will have to commit massive voter fraud to win

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    Senior Member Array title="steelcityboyz has much to be proud of"> steelcityboyz's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    Honestly it seems more and more like the Democrats will have to commit massive voter fraud to win
    I agree. The only way Trump loses, is if the Dems get away with cheating, that's how sick and desperate they are.

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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by steelcityboyz View Post
    I agree. The only way Trump loses, is if the Dems get away with cheating, that's how sick and desperate they are.
    They sure are going to try, though.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Banned Array title="tom444 has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    The only way Trump loses, is if the Dems get away with cheating, that's how sick and desperate they are.
    They sure are going to try


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    Senior Member Array title="Fire Goodell has a reputation beyond repute"> Fire Goodell's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Biden is going to win. The S&P closed below 3271 which means the incumbent party is going to lose the election. This has been 87% correct all-time and has been on the money since 1984. Also predicted Trump's win last election when nobody was giving him a chance.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...gn-11604076754

    It's no guarantee, but as a stock trader I'd take a 87% edge any day of the week

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    Senior Member Array title="FrancoLambert has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Goodell View Post
    Biden is going to win. The S&P closed below 3271 which means the incumbent party is going to lose the election. This has been 87% correct all-time and has been on the money since 1984. Also predicted Trump's win last election when nobody was giving him a chance.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...gn-11604076754

    It's no guarantee, but as a stock trader I'd take a 87% edge any day of the week
    And the nail in the coffin for Donny will be..drum roll...no surprise...Covid-19.
    His dismissal of science, no, wait...his trashing of science, his complete lack of compassion and empathy, his lies, his deceit, his divisiveness, his narcissism, his incompetence, his braggadocio, and the realization that he is more of a danger to America than Covid, will all add up to end this mistake called Trump.
    His sycophants who never question a thing he does or says are the only ones still supporting him.
    And a few of the Proud Boys that post here, who wondered, “why are the libs so quiet lately,” will hear the response once all of the ballots are counted.

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    Old School Misfit Array title="silver & black has a reputation beyond repute"> silver & black's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    His sycophants who never question a thing he does or says are the only ones still supporting him.
    Wow.... the hypocrisy in that statement is off the chart, considering who you support.

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by cubanstogie View Post
    My prediction and hope is Trump wins handily and Tom444 leaves this forum spending his last few months on earth playing bingo and looking at National Geographic. Im still deciding if I want to put some cash on Trump to win though.
    I too hope for both of those things.

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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by silver & black View Post
    Wow.... the hypocrisy in that statement is off the chart, considering who you support.
    It's all right - he's been dead wrong about everything else so far; its not going to change now. He just keeps getting more and more foolish, and getting angrier about it. It's like some kind of feedback loop where he's so dumb that he pisses himself off, so he gets even dumber and the result of that makes him more angry. I've never seen anything quite like it. He's the only person I've ever had on ignore on any message board anywhere, for just having NOTHING to offer to any conversation. Never anything of substance to say, just "shut up." Every once in a while when someone else quotes a post of his, it's always confirmation of what a great decision that was.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Senior Member Array title="cubanstogie has a reputation beyond repute"> cubanstogie's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Goodell View Post
    Biden is going to win. The S&P closed below 3271 which means the incumbent party is going to lose the election. This has been 87% correct all-time and has been on the money since 1984. Also predicted Trump's win last election when nobody was giving him a chance.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...gn-11604076754

    It's no guarantee, but as a stock trader I'd take a 87% edge any day of the week
    if s&p goes up 32 on Monday Trump wins. I guess I’ll put my wager down monday night.

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    Banned Array title="tom444 has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    Never anything of substance to say, just "shut up." Every once in a while when someone else quotes a post of his, it's always confirmation of what a great decision that was.
    Ahhh, shut up.



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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by tom444 View Post
    Ahhh, shut up.


    The fact that even you are not on my ignore list really ought to say something about the other guy.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

  16. #16
    Senior Member Array title="Fire Goodell has a reputation beyond repute"> Fire Goodell's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by cubanstogie View Post
    if s&p goes up 32 on Monday Trump wins. I guess I’ll put my wager down monday night.
    I'm down with that, I entered some call spreads last Friday. This week's gonna be crazy though, expected move for the S&P is 5%

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    Banned Array title="tom444 has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Goodell View Post
    Biden is going to win. The S&P closed below 3271 which means the incumbent party is going to lose the election. This has been 87% correct all-time and has been on the money since 1984. Also predicted Trump's win last election when nobody was giving him a chance.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...gn-11604076754

    It's no guarantee, but as a stock trader I'd take a 87% edge any day of the week
    And..........

    The Surprising Correlation of Super Bowl and Presidential Election Results

    Asher FairJanuary 20, 2017
    Since 2004, whenever the team representing the AFC was the Super Bowl champion in the year of the presidential election, the Republican nominee won the election. Whenever the team representing the NFC was the Super Bowl champion in the year of the presidential election, the Democratic nominee won the election.
    2004: Super Bowl XXXVIII

    New England Patriots (AFC) defeat Carolina Panthers (NFC), 32-29.
    George W. Bush (R) defeats John F. Kerry (D), 286-251.
    2008: Super Bowl XLII

    New York Giants (NFC) defeat New England Patriots (AFC), 17-14.
    Barack H. Obama (D) defeats John S. McCain (R), 365-173.
    2012: Super Bowl XLVI

    New York Giants (NFC) defeat New England Patriots (AFC), 21-17.
    Barack H. Obama (D) defeats W. Mitt Romney (R), 332-206.
    2016: Super Bowl L

    Denver Broncos (AFC) defeat Carolina Panthers (NFC), 24-10.
    Donald J. Trump (R) defeats Hillary R. Clinton (D), 304-227.
    .....we know who won in 2020.

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    Senior Member Array title="FrancoLambert has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    It's all right - he's been dead wrong about everything else so far; its not going to change now. He just keeps getting more and more foolish, and getting angrier about it. It's like some kind of feedback loop where he's so dumb that he pisses himself off, so he gets even dumber and the result of that makes him more angry. I've never seen anything quite like it. He's the only person I've ever had on ignore on any message board anywhere, for just having NOTHING to offer to any conversation. Never anything of substance to say, just "shut up." Every once in a while when someone else quotes a post of his, it's always confirmation of what a great decision that was.
    An accomplishment I never dreamed possible. I'm honored.
    Thank you steelreserve...well, he won't see this, but if you're a buddy of his, please pass my thanks along.

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    Senior Member Array title="EzraTank has a reputation beyond repute"> EzraTank's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    Honestly it seems more and more like the Democrats will have to commit massive voter fraud to win
    Like this in Philly?

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiep...entry-n2579316

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    Senior Member Array title="EzraTank has a reputation beyond repute"> EzraTank's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by FrancoLambert View Post
    And the nail in the coffin for Donny will be..drum roll...no surprise...Covid-19.
    His dismissal of science, no, wait...his trashing of science, his complete lack of compassion and empathy, his lies, his deceit, his divisiveness, his narcissism, his incompetence, his braggadocio, and the realization that he is more of a danger to America than Covid, will all add up to end this mistake called Trump.
    So explain to me how Canada has less than 6,000 deaths and we have 220,000+? We have 10 times the population of Canada as well, but how does an airborne virus magically stop at a border? Could it be that maybe just maybe the way we are calculating our deaths is different than most other countries in the world are? Even the CDC's website is saying we are including ANYONE who has died with COVID19 against the count regardless of whether that person died of the flu, pneumonia, heart failure or any other cause. If they had COVID19 it's a COVID19 death. Why are we doing this? Could it be that hospitals are financially rewarded with Federal money for reporting COVID19 deaths? Heck even Jack Nicklaus realized that is what's happening. Is his a Sycophant?

    What about these numbers, why are they being ignored by the left?



    Quote Originally Posted by FrancoLambert View Post
    His sycophants who never question a thing he does or says are the only ones still supporting him.
    And a few of the Proud Boys that post here, who wondered, “why are the libs so quiet lately,” will hear the response once all of the ballots are counted.
    And yet you are attacking people here that support him acting like you're high and mighty? Why? I don't know you personally but if I did I would never attack you personally, I'd present why I support him and listen to why you support Biden. The problem is your side doesn't want to do this, you'd rather call us "Proud Boys" (BTW an organization started by a Hispanic man) instead of having an honest conversation. Are there things I don't like about Trump? Absolutely! He's and egomaniac, who hates to admit he's wrong, his personality is abrasive (but I'm from Philly area so I'm used to people like that), and some of his statements (especially on Twitter) are flat out stupid. All that aside when you look at his campaign promises and results I'm picking him over Biden's 47 YEARS of crap any day of the week.

    Now name me one thing you hate about Biden, or Harris (who he picked because she has a vagina and higher skin melanin levels). Remember Harris couldn't even win her own home state in the primaries but yet she's now a heartbeat away from the White House with a 78 year old man who's clearly mentally failing the only thing standing in the way ... talk about our Democracy (even though we're a Constitutional Republic) at threat!

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    Senior Member Array title="st33lersguy has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    Honestly it seems more and more like the Democrats will have to commit massive voter fraud to win
    Sadly it looks like this is occurring. Democratsare in position to win because of voter fraud. I know PA was riddled with problems

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    Banned Array title="tom444 has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    Sadly it looks like this is occurring. Democratsare in position to win because of voter fraud. I know PA was riddled with problems
    Just a tiny push and the conservatives go right off the rails.


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    Senior Member Array title="EzraTank has a reputation beyond repute"> EzraTank's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    Sadly it looks like this is occurring. Democratsare in position to win because of voter fraud. I know PA was riddled with problems
    Yep, MI went from Trump up 300K votes at 3am to now down 21K votes. So magically 321K votes, all for Biden showed up? Oh well unlike the leftist morons people on the right will just get up, go to work and move on.

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by EzraTank View Post
    Yep, MI went from Trump up 300K votes at 3am to now down 21K votes. So magically 321K votes, all for Biden showed up? Oh well unlike the leftist morons people on the right will just get up, go to work and move on.
    Wisconsin too. And Nevada stops their counting til Thursday when trump goes into a virtual dead heat. Extremely shady shit.

  25. #25
    Banned Array title="tom444 has a reputation beyond repute">

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Cut the cry baby shit. Whoever wins, and we don't know who that will be yet, wins.

    So, lets be fair about this:


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    Quest For Seven Array title="Mach1 has a reputation beyond repute"> Mach1's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out



    Give a lib a fish--he eats for a day

    Teach a lib to fish--he is back the next day asking for more free fish.

    ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

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    Senior Member Array title="steelcityboyz has much to be proud of"> steelcityboyz's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    What the moronic left forgets is Trump is smart, he's not going to concede to this voter fraud without a fight. And I hope he exposes the cheating fucks for what they are.

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by steelcityboyz View Post
    What the moronic left forgets is Trump is smart, he's not going to concede to this voter fraud without a fight. And I hope he exposes the cheating fucks for what they are.


  29. #29
    NFL's Dirtiest Player Array title="86WARD has a reputation beyond repute"> 86WARD's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    PA has been live streaming the whole vote counting process...lol. If they’re cheating...it should be right there on video. Lol.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Quest For Seven Array title="Mach1 has a reputation beyond repute"> Mach1's Avatar

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    Re: My Presidential election prediction 1 week out

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    PA has been live streaming the whole vote counting process...lol. If they’re cheating...it should be right there on video. Lol.
    Can you see the ballots, can you tell if they're legal ballots on the live stream?


    Give a lib a fish--he eats for a day

    Teach a lib to fish--he is back the next day asking for more free fish.

    ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ

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