I just realized that I haven't made my prediction this year. Those of you that know me know that I have a (thus far) unbroken correct prediction streak. I feel confident enough to say this 1 week out:
I expect Donald Trump to win reelection handily, barring some sudden bombshell in the coming week.
I realize that this is in total opposition to what the polls suggest, but if we learned anything 4 years ago, it's that the polls are worthless.
Instead, I'm looking at more fundamental metrics and indicators. Trump is the incumbent with a 56% approval on the economy. His base enthusiasm is even higher than it was 4 years ago. Say what you will about Hillary (trust me I do), but she did actually have some base enthusiasm. Biden has none.
Party registration is through the roof for Republicans, and is diminishing for the Dems.
Early vote results are actually favoring Trump.
Most importantly, I'm looking at where each campaign is sinking their efforts. Trump is 100% on the offensive, making more and more stops in places he narrowly lost last time, and less time in places where he narrowly won.
Biden, OTOH, is focusing his efforts (such as they are) in places that he should already own in order to have a realistic shot. He's on full defense and the "blue wall" is crumbling around him.
So that's my prediction. We'll see how well it holds up next week.