How many QB's are drafted in the first round that don't equate to being a top 15 QB in the NFL?
You expect 3rd round picks to definitely translate to being upper echelon QB's in the NFL?? I shouldn't have to point out how unrealistic of an expectation that is, but here it goes anyways...
The attached link shows a list of QB's selected in the NFL from 1990-2017 and deems success as being a "multi year starter for the NFL team that drafted them". It shows 25% of QB's taken in the 3rd round have started at least 2 seasons for that team, where they took the majority of snaps. The 2nd round QB's were 48% that had 2 seasons of being the teams starting QB
https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/...d-quarterbacks Now this doesn't mean they ascended to being a "franchise QB". Charlie Batch was a 2nd round pick of the Lions and is considered successful, because he started at least 2 seasons for the Lions...but he is far from being considered top 15 in the NFL in any of those years, let along long term.
So the odds are that if you pick a QB in the NFL in the 3rd round, 75% of them will not be the starting QB for at least 2 seasons in the NFL. NFL coaches, executives, scouts and even fans get that. Drafting QB's is like having a lottery ticket. No guarantee that you will win and the later you pick the longer the odds of winning are...but you cant win if you don't have a ticket.