1. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 2. Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia 3. Maason Smith, DT, LSU 3. Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan 4. MJ Devonshire, CB, Pittsburgh 6. Tommy Eichenberg, ILB, Ohio State 6. Ryan Watts, S, Texas
Bud Dupree is NOT worth $16.75 million. And if you want to pay TJ and Minkah like you have to pay sooner rather than later and avoid cap hell, you can't pay Bud that much money
Why can't you? Whether a team should or not is a perfectly reasonable question. But basic math says they can pay Bud, TJ, Mnkah, Juju, Conner, etc as long as they stop paying 30+ million for a QB by 2022 or so.Originally Posted by st33lersguy
Plus the contract structure outline in the article would make Bud easy to cut (meaning the team would SAVE money by cutting him) by about the same time that all those extensions would really start to overlap.
$16.75 million a year is simply too much for what is at best when surrounded by loads of defensive talent a decent no. 2 edge rusher. Plus with a premium franchise edge rusher on the other side you are probably looking at paying him at least $20 mil a year. That's a lot of money tied into one position. It would be worth it if both edge rushers were premium franchise edge rushers, but since Bud isn't, it really isn't a smart or feasible.
Again, why? Smart, we can debate. But if by feasible we mean "Will the Pittsburgh Steelers still have adequate salary cap space to pay ANYONE they want to gobs of money in 2021-2025 IF they also pay Bud Dupree $16.75 million per year over 5 years?" And the answer is yes, they will. The entire pay structure of the team is built around Dupree being the leading edge of a new crop of big $$$ contracts. As Roethlisberger, Pouncey, Haden, Heyward, etc leave the books -- Dupree, Watt, Juju, Conner, Bus, Minkah, etc hit the books.
Not all that long ago, the Steelers paid Harrison and Woodley premium dollar contracts at the same time. While affording multiple other high $$$ players. The Green Bay Packers just signed 2 OLBs to Dupree sized contracts last year AND paid Rodgers and were players AGAIN in free agency this year.
The Dupree contract precluded ONE thing - offering Hargrave big $$$. That and lack of playing time meant he left town. But paying Dupree doesn't prevent anything else from taking place.
I had to take a break while reading this story and go to Home Depot, because my barf bucket demanded an assistant barf bucket.
Then the next thing I knew, I got hit on the head with something heavy, and then the room was blurry and spinning, and a ghostly voice was repeating "Woodley ... Woodley ... Woodley" over and over until I passed out.
See you Space Cowboy ...
At least Woodley had 3 double digit sack seasons before he was sent into a decline, Dupree only has one in 5 years
Melvin Ingram, part II
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Maybe.
We will see.
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It's a risk whomever you back with a big contract. Nobody could have foreseen what happened to Shazier. Did Woodley get paid and then get lazy? I don't think so, I think the injuries he sustained over the years just caught up. Dupree has played well, IMO, and I don't see all the negative most on here seem to see. This is his payday year. I don't know if he gets a big extension but with his injury history and him playing through many of his injuries, combined with the leap in production last season I think he earned this paycheck. Moving forward is a different conversation but no, I would not pay Bud elite money on a long term deal. His injuries will come back on him one day too. I would keep Bud on short term deals that pay in signing bonus and incentives.
What your saying sounds good, but I would bet there is a team out there willing to give him that kind of cash. It obviously also depends on draft or finding replacement. Chickillo and company were a huge drop off from Bud. As a fan I don't get into figuring cap space but on surface Id like to see him stay. If he stops running by opposing QB his sack total will increase immensely.
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I would bet you are correct also. I'm actually a fan of Bud Dupree. Athlon Sports ranked Bud a top20 3-4 OLB for the 2019 season. https://athlonsports.com/nfl/nfl-linebacker-rankings
I think the way this defense is set now and with how they played last season I believe Bud can have another great year in 2020. My basis for long term vs short term contracts is more about longevity and quantity of snaps. Dupree has dealt with injuries since he was drafted. He doesn't come off the field much. A legitimate OLB that is not an obvious dropoff as a backup would probably become a replacement instead. I have read and heard analysts and Steelers beat writers saying they believe Bud will get a deal by mid July. My concern being more how much do you pay an OLB for year's 6-10 when he's already played over 3500 snaps in years 1-5? 980 just last season and his snaps have increased every year. On the other hand Bud did just register 11.5 sacks last season(17 sacks and 30 QB hits in the last 2 seasons) and that usually gets an OLB paid.
Don't focus on the average annual value. Focus on the dead money versus cap charge #'s. Looking at the chart at the bottom of the Steelers Depot posting and I come up with this:
Year 1: $29 million in dead money. Basically all the bonuses. So he basically can't get cut in year 1.
Year 2: $25 million in dead money. So, again not gonna get cut.
Year 3: $12 million in dead money versus a cap charge higher than that. So you can now cut the player if he is not performing.
Year 4-5: Same idea as above.
I'm not sure I have all the dollar amounts correct, but basically the contract outlined in the SD post is a 2 year deal with 3 option years. Those option years are at a high salary. But if Dupree continues to log 10+ sacks and play quality run defense -- then those salaries will be a bargain against a rising salary cap.
Long story short, such a deal ONLY commits the Steelers to paying Dupree for 2020 and 2021. For a more detailed look at how this would work, play around with the cut/trade options on the P. Smith contract at this website: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-ba...n-smith-16762/. Different numbers, but this is the type of structure that is being outlined. Most Steelers extensions and big dollar contracts are like this.
I don't think Woodley got paid and then got lazy, I think he was never a real playmaker to begin with. He was an ok player who benefited immensely from having perhaps the best pass rusher in the game on the opposite side, as well as a badass defensive line and some amazing playmakers in the secondary. But when asked to step up and be the playmaker himself, he couldn't do it. He was just a guy.
Does any of this look familiar?
See you Space Cowboy ...
In 2011, the first Woodley big $$$ year and only in the games without Harrison flanking him, Woodley had 7.5 sacks. Then he tore his hammy and was never the same.
It’s amazing how perception of the player colors our perception of the numbers.
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This is not a knock on James at all. He played for 13 seasons for the Steelers. 3 of those were double digit sacks. 5 total with 8 or more. Not arguing he's not an all time great Steeler just that he wasn't exactly the sack machine fans remember either. A lot of it is the timing of his sacks. AND over those same 5 years he had 87 QB hits(53 were sacks). When did these high numbers start? Year 4. People can get hung up on UDFA vs 1st round draft pick too(discussing Dupree). The list of Steelers defenders drafted in the first 3 rounds that didn't produce at the level of JH is actually staggering and disappointing when looked at through just that lens alone. Just as a matter of stats, TP43 played 12 years and averaged 2 INTs and 1 sack per season, 1st ballot HoF.
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Thanks for this.
I wasn't talking about the numbers so much as the impact. That was nonexistent when he has supposed to be The Guy. It is possible to have several sacks over the course of a season without actually having a significant impact (see: Worilds, Jason). It is not for no reason that people were calling him Woodley II.
I thought Woodley merely pulled his hamstring, not tore it, and kept re-aggravating it time after time.
See you Space Cowboy ...
Six of one... half-dozen of the other.
During the first portion of that season, Woodley was in the running for DPOY, got injured, and never ever ever played well again.
I don't remember the exact nature of the injury. But it certainly did become chronic.
https://steelersdepot.com/2015/07/st...amarr-woodley/
Prior to the injury he was on a sack per game pace. Was playing really good run defense. 7.5 of those 9 sacks came in games that James Harrison didn't suit up. Woodley also clocked a safety and was well on his way to basically single-handedly stopping the Pats passing game when his hammy went pop. I seem to remember there being DPOY talk 8 weeks into the season. Then he got hurt. Then he got fat. Then he got hurt again. Etc.
He had 11 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries in 8 playoff games. I'm having a hard time following the argument that Woodley was some shrinking violet that wilted under the bright lights.
Here is a more positive take on Dupree and Watt.
Every DE and OLB drafted between 2014 and 2019. Sorted by total sacks: http://pfref.com/tiny/MA67e
Watt is 8th with only players drafted at least one year prior ahead of him on the list. Bottom line, dude is a monster.
Dupree is 11th on the list. Not a bad Robin to Watt's Batman.
Tuitt checks in at 18th on the list. IF he could ever stay healthy for 16 games, I shudder to think the havoc he would wreak on the entire league.
If they can keep those three together and Heyward ages well -- that is one heckuva pass rush.
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That's a great link. I love how they break it down by year and when drafted, so you can compare all the stats they list. When you see the total games played, the total number of sacks, and then take into account what position they play and what defense they play in, it helps to put things into perspective if you know what you are looking at.
Of course, those who are looking at the numbers can still believe whatever it is they want to believe.
Not as much detail here. But this is ACTIVE sack leaders (top 50): https://www.pro-football-reference.c...#leaders::none
Watt is #43
Heyward is #24. I wonder how many people would even put him in the top 25 if they were just rattling off pass-rushers?
Dupree is 1 sack away from moving into a tie for #50.
For some context, Danielle Hunter, drafted in 2015 has 54.5 sacks.
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Thanks.
I use that website often when I am compiling information. They have the best breakdown of stats of anywhere I have seen.
When you go up and down those lists, you can identify the players that are special when you see the sack totals compared to the year they were drafted. When you also consider OLBs that play in a 3-4 and drop into coverage a good percentage of the time compared to true DEs in a 4-3 that almost never drop into coverage....the numbers are outrageous for guys like TJ Watt.
Heyward's numbers are impressive.
I don't remember him being BAD prior to the injury, but also don't remember going, "yeah, Woodley is killing it out there" during that brief period. It may have been the injury, it may have been that he just wasn't cut out to be the #1 playmaker, we may never know.
Having said all that, unless Dupree is REALLY kicking ass this year, Woodley was still by far the higher-percentage roll of the dice, and that is frightening in many ways. Not too long ago, he was a more physically gifted Jarvis Jones. The idea of giving top-5 OLB money to a guy who is the second-best pass rusher on the team also concerns me a bit.
In any case, it looks like we already made our decision to go all-in on this guy by the time we let Hargrave go without a fight, so I sure as hell hope it was worth it.
See you Space Cowboy ...
None of that is true.
Despite what you remember, Woodley was dominant. He was on a record setting pace for sacks early in his career. That’s why the team eagerly locked him up to a long term deal.
Dupree is getting top 12-15 edge rusher money and that’s likely a more realistic context for his “value”.
A more athletic Jarvis Jones would be a hell of a football player. Jones knew what to do and where to go, he just lacked the physical tools to do it. That’s like trying to tell me that Tyler Matekavich with Devin Bushes physical traits would be an iffy prospect.
Woodley, Mack, and Miller first 4 years of their careers AND Watt first 3.
Draw your own conclusions. Per game stats put Woodley in the conversation. His playoff stats are off the charts compared to Von Miller.
http://pfref.com/tiny/VZNYY
Also, TJ Watt is stupid good.
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Good stuff there again.
Woodley was a terrific player, who also happened to be one of the best post-season pass rushers in the history of the NFL until the injuries.
Yes, TJ Watt is ridiculous. What he is doing in his first couple years is so good, it's hard to quantify when you realize how he is utilized and the number of snaps where he is actually rushing the passer, dropping into coverage, or simply forcing turnovers. The dude is unreal.
Last edited by pczach; 03-31-2020 at 10:13 AM.
I meant that through their first few seasons, Jones and Dupree had been equally disappointing, only for different reasons. But both were pretty lackluster.
What I remember about Woodley was that he was extremely dominant up through the time he got his big contract, but not after. At the time, the contract was not a bad deal, although the size of it was enough to make a porn star swallow hard. Maybe my memory of events surrounding the first half of the season circa 2011 is a little hazy, but it really seemed as if that was the point at which most of the defensive core was getting old and he was no longer the fourth or fifth guy to account for, and that's when his limitations showed.
But I would STILL have felt better about taking that kind of chance on Woodley than Dupree.
See you Space Cowboy ...
You’re remembering incorrectly. After signing his extension, Woodley was a DPOY candidate (before getting injured). Woodley absolutely played up to his new contract; his play was better after signing the extension. Um... I’m not sure how else to say it.
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