Comparing Some TEs

[Mojouw]

I wouldn't have guessed it because of how high Ebron was drafted, but he and Vance McDonald have very similar testing numbers and pizza web graph profiles.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/eric-ebron
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/vance-mcdonald

Gentry, not so much -- https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/zach-gentry

So what about this draft class? https://www.mockdraftable.com/search...rt=DESC&page=1

Not many exactly jump off the page with the athletic testing numbers. So I think the draft day decision will come down to who is going to be the better TE in 2021 and beyond? And the choices will be Ebron, McDonald, Gentry, or Draft pick.

I suspect that they will not take one until the 3rd round comp pick. So maybe someone like Kmet and he steps in as a McDonald replacement in 2021. I still think that no matter what they do, TE will be a weak link in the offense until they hit the lottery on a draft pick.

Here is the thing with that though. Are they gonna carry 3 TEs on the active roster? If so, Gentry getting cut? If not, would Kmet or someone similar make the practice squad?

I don't expect anyone to have the answers. I think that the, at least for me, unexpected addition of Ebron has made an already cloudy picture at the post 2020 TE spots even murkier.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Anybody know how to look up Jerry Rice on one of theses draft measurable charts? Would be interesting to see how he ranked.

[Dwinsgames]

Anybody know how to look up Jerry Rice on one of theses draft measurable charts? Would be interesting to see how he ranked.

might be difficult to find since this is a " new" thing ... but Jerry's 4.71 -40 wouldn't get him much of an analytics grade is my guess so the spider graph would be pretty ugly .....

his play was anything but ugly

[Born2Steel]

What do you guys think Tom Brady's or Joe Montana's spider graphs look like? Was Hines Ward the most athletic guy on the field? Was Jack lambert? The graphs show exactly what they're meant to show. How we read them is where things start getting sideways. I think that a tandem of Ebron and McDonald is fine for 2020. I would still like to see a TE drafted and let's see how Gentry improves in year 2. As long as McDonald stays healthy I think he will be TE1. Ebron will be used on 3rd downs and redzone situationally, same with Gentry. We can hope a rookie comes in and puts them all on the bench.

BTW...Dalton Keene's spider graph looks pretty impressive athletic-wise.

[Mojouw]

Google it. Rice's actual 40 time was 4.4. He was regarded as a speedy vertical threat when he was drafted. It was only later that the "myth" of the slow time took hold.

Don't get me wrong, never claimed athletic testing #s are the end all be all. But you have to have a baseline to go off of. Too low, and you're Jarvis Jones.

Football ability is super important too. Too little of that and you get Artie Burns.

This year's TE class seems to be dangerously low on both athletic testing numbers and video evidence of football ability. Each prospect has a different potential "fatal flaw".

For most, it is blocking. That's why I think they will target a TE who will sit a year and challenge for the starting spot year. 2-3.

[Shoes]

Google it. Rice's actual 40 time was 4.4. He was regarded as a speedy vertical threat when he was drafted. It was only later that the "myth" of the slow time took hold.

Don't get me wrong, never claimed athletic testing #s are the end all be all. But you have to have a baseline to go off of. Too low, and you're Jarvis Jones.

Football ability is super important too. Too little of that and you get Artie Burns.

This year's TE class seems to be dangerously low on both athletic testing numbers and video evidence of football ability. Each prospect has a different potential "fatal flaw".

For most, it is blocking. That's why I think they will target a TE who will sit a year and challenge for the starting spot year. 2-3.

Well with the Steelers it doesn't matter how good the TE class is. There could be a class of full of George Kettle's and they would still draft a Josh Dobbs.

[Dwinsgames]

Jerry Lee Rice Sr. is an American former professional football player who was a wide receiver in the National Football League, primarily with the San Francisco 49ers. WikipediaBorn: October 13, 1962 (age 57 years), Starkville, MS


Height: 6′ 2″


40 yard dash time: 4.71 seconds


Career end: 2006


School: Mississippi Valley State University


Spouse: Jacqueline Bernice Mitchell (m. 1987–2009)


Number: 80 (San Francisco 49ers / Wide receiver), MORE

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Jerry Lee Rice Sr. is an American former professional football player who was a wide receiver in the National Football League, primarily with the San Francisco 49ers. WikipediaBorn: October 13, 1962 (age 57 years), Starkville, MS


Height: 6′ 2″


40 yard dash time: 4.71 seconds


Career end: 2006


School: Mississippi Valley State University


Spouse: Jacqueline Bernice Mitchell (m. 1987–2009)


Number: 80 (San Francisco 49ers / Wide receiver), MORE

Yup, real football is played in pads. Real football players are evaluated in pads, not on paper.

[Mojouw]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/c...71_40_in_1985/

https://news.google.com/newspapers?n...8,597545&hl=en


This artificial divide between "real" football and "fake numbers" football is such utter nonsense. I don't think that anyone actually believes that the NFL works like a Disney movie where the player with fundamental deficits in athletic ability can overcome those and make a star turn because of heart and desire. That just does not happen. At best, you can carve out Matekavich's career.

Numbers have a great sorting role. They can cause you to take a closer look at a players tape to see if you missed anything. Or they can assist in sorting players into categories for analysis and comparison.

For this year's TE class you have three bins of players:

1. Guys who have demonstrated good catching but poor blocking. Most of them tested to be "average" NFL athletes at best. So, this makes it difficult to argue that their "all catch no block" TE style will be really impactful. Young Jimmy Grahamn was with that style because his athletic abilities created physical mismatches. Old Jimmy Grahamn is "meh" with that style because he isn't an overwhelming mismatch anymore.

2. Guys who can block, but we don't know a great deal about them as receivers. Here, the limited game tape should be the guide, but on some of these guys their college teams just didn't ask them to do NFL TE things. So, we can look to testing numbers. Do any of these guys put up athletic measurables that would warrant an NFL team using a later round draft pick and developing the player? There are a few names here, but not as many as in other/recent TE classes.

3. The top 2-4 prospects in the class. Some tested well and have good and bad stuff on tape. Others tested poorly and have good stuff on tape. No prospect that has both just knocked out of the park. Obviously, you have to acknowledge that all of this is a guess anyways...

My opinion, is that based on the track records and physical abilities of the 3 TEs now on the roster, the Steelers are far more likely to pick someone from bin 1 or bin 2 rather than bin 3. A combination of looking at video clips on the internet, reading the opinions of others, and (heaven forbid) numbers and (oh the humanity -- won't someone think of the children!) analytics is how I got to that apparently fundamentally controversial opinion.

I don't think the idea that the signing of Ebron, the retaining of McDonald, and the existence of Gentry being used to support the opinion that in the absence of a consensus dominant ready to roll NFL TE in this year's class that the Steelers take a later round prospect to stash and develop is all that out of left field or somehow out of step with reasonable potential outcomes.

[Dwinsgames]

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/c...71_40_in_1985/

https://news.google.com/newspapers?n...8,597545&hl=en


This artificial divide between "real" football and "fake numbers" football is such utter nonsense. I don't think that anyone actually believes that the NFL works like a Disney movie where the player with fundamental deficits in athletic ability can overcome those and make a star turn because of heart and desire. That just does not happen. At best, you can carve out Matekavich's career.

Numbers have a great sorting role. They can cause you to take a closer look at a players tape to see if you missed anything. Or they can assist in sorting players into categories for analysis and comparison.

For this year's TE class you have three bins of players:

1. Guys who have demonstrated good catching but poor blocking. Most of them tested to be "average" NFL athletes at best. So, this makes it difficult to argue that their "all catch no block" TE style will be really impactful. Young Jimmy Grahamn was with that style because his athletic abilities created physical mismatches. Old Jimmy Grahamn is "meh" with that style because he isn't an overwhelming mismatch anymore.

2. Guys who can block, but we don't know a great deal about them as receivers. Here, the limited game tape should be the guide, but on some of these guys their college teams just didn't ask them to do NFL TE things. So, we can look to testing numbers. Do any of these guys put up athletic measurables that would warrant an NFL team using a later round draft pick and developing the player? There are a few names here, but not as many as in other/recent TE classes.

3. The top 2-4 prospects in the class. Some tested well and have good and bad stuff on tape. Others tested poorly and have good stuff on tape. No prospect that has both just knocked out of the park. Obviously, you have to acknowledge that all of this is a guess anyways...

My opinion, is that based on the track records and physical abilities of the 3 TEs now on the roster, the Steelers are far more likely to pick someone from bin 1 or bin 2 rather than bin 3. A combination of looking at video clips on the internet, reading the opinions of others, and (heaven forbid) numbers and (oh the humanity -- won't someone think of the children!) analytics is how I got to that apparently fundamentally controversial opinion.

I don't think the idea that the signing of Ebron, the retaining of McDonald, and the existence of Gentry being used to support the opinion that in the absence of a consensus dominant ready to roll NFL TE in this year's class that the Steelers take a later round prospect to stash and develop is all that out of left field or somehow out of step with reasonable potential outcomes.

who is this u/dubya_a on reddit because that is who you are asking me to believe , yes I was shocked when I seen 4.71 because I remember it being more like 4.65 for whatever reason ... but I got no clue who u/dubya_a is and why I should believe him over my recollection or what google has to provide or wiki

[Mojouw]

who is this u/dubya_a on reddit because that is who you are asking me to believe , yes I was shocked when I seen 4.71 because I remember it being more like 4.65 for whatever reason ... but I got no clue who u/dubya_a is and why I should believe him over my recollection or what google has to provide or wiki

I couldn't care less what Rice's forty time was or wasn't. There are links in the redditt post to multiple news articles where coaches and Rice himself dispute the 4.7 forty time.

Not me asking you to believe anyone. Just a central place with data and information that you can choose to use or not.

[DesertSteel]

Now that they have Ebron and kept McD, I don’t see them drafting a TE at all this year. WR and RB will be the skill positions drafted IMO.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I predict that at least 4 TE will be drafted before the Steelers 3rd round compensatory pick. I see it being:

Kmet
Harrison Bryant
Trautman
Hopkins

I could see one more as I think somebody will think that either Hunter Bryant, Albert Okuwbugnam or Moss fit their scheme.

[Born2Steel]

I predict that at least 4 TE will be drafted before the Steelers 3rd round compensatory pick. I see it being:

Kmet
Harrison Bryant
Trautman
Hopkins

I could see one more as I think somebody will think that either Hunter Bryant, Albert Okuwbugnam or Moss fit their scheme.

If it came to these 3 at pick 102 I would still rather take Josiah Deguara a round later.

[Shoes]

If it came to these 3 at pick 102 I would still rather take Josiah Deguara a round later.

I'd be ok with that but wouldn't hesitate to take Harrison Bryant at 3 if he was still on the board. There hasn't been any stability at this position since 2015.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I'd be ok with that but wouldn't hesitate to take Harrison Bryant at 3 if he was still on the board. There hasn't been any stability at this position since 2015.

I believe that Bryant will be the 3rd TE off the board and the 4th is going to be Hopkins. If either is there with the 3rd round compensatory pick, I would take them, unless Davon Hamilton happens to be on the board still.

I think a rookie TE with pass catching ability could be added and prepare for 2021 when McDonald contract is up. Gentry would be odd man out, so try and get him on the PS for when McDonald or Ebron gets injured.

[Shoes]

I believe that Bryant will be the 3rd TE off the board and the 4th is going to be Hopkins. If either is there with the 3rd round compensatory pick, I would take them, unless Davon Hamilton happens to be on the board still.

I think a rookie TE with pass catching ability could be added and prepare for 2021 when McDonald contract is up. Gentry would be odd man out, so try and get him on the PS for when McDonald or Ebron gets injured.

That is how I see it also.

[Born2Steel]

It is my belief that it is much easier to teach a football player with average to above average athletic ability to catch a football, than it is to teach that same football player to block a 250LB+ maniac trying to get to his QB. Ebron and Gentry are never going to become all-pro level blockers in the run game or in pass pro. McDonald is only adequate as a blocking TE but is much better blocking in space than in-line. Thus enters Derek Watt FB. But in trying to build upon MojoUW's point(I think) why try to get that dynamic game changer from the TE class this draft when there is such a wellspring of talent in the WR and RB class that can come in day 1 and present mismatches for defenses. The TE class just doesn't offer the same level of football player this year. I think we know what we have in the TE room heading into the 2020 season and how to use what we have to our advantage, especially having Ben back. Just my opinion but this draft should be used to reinforce the OL and get game changers at positions of offensive weapons and on the back end of the defense. IF that next level TE falls into our lap then wonderful.

[Mojouw]

It is my belief that it is much easier to teach a football player with average to above average athletic ability to catch a football, than it is to teach that same football player to block a 250LB+ maniac trying to get to his QB. Ebron and Gentry are never going to become all-pro level blockers in the run game or in pass pro. McDonald is only adequate as a blocking TE but is much better blocking in space than in-line. Thus enters Derek Watt FB. But in trying to build upon MojoUW's point(I think) why try to get that dynamic game changer from the TE class this draft when there is such a wellspring of talent in the WR and RB class that can come in day 1 and present mismatches for defenses. The TE class just doesn't offer the same level of football player this year. I think we know what we have in the TE room heading into the 2020 season and how to use what we have to our advantage, especially having Ben back. Just my opinion but this draft should be used to reinforce the OL and get game changers at positions of offensive weapons and on the back end of the defense. IF that next level TE falls into our lap then wonderful.

That's right along the lines of my thinking.

[steelreserve]

edit: wait, never mind, I was way behind on stuff and didn't realize we had ACTUALLY signed a replacement for Vannett and weren't just theorizing about it. That previous post was bunk.

As long as we have enough bodies to fill the roster, I'd rather not draft a TE this year, given our lack of picks and more important things going on elsewhere ... unless we spend too high of a pick, what we get probably won't be very good, and we've got other stuff to worry about.

[Born2Steel]

The "NEED" for a TE in this draft typically makes us over-value the players available in this draft that play TE. I do think the Steelers will draft another TE this draft, I just do not think the value is there to take ANY of them at pick 49.

The Draft Network has their highest rated TE at #68 overall.

SI writer Kevin Hanson has his top TE at 61 overall.

The Sporting News writer Vinnie Iyer has his top TE at 49 overall.

Daniel Jeremiah has Kmet as his 42nd overall player in his Top50.

Draft Tek has a TE at 50, and 61 overall and then not until 98 overall.

CBSSports lists thier top rated TE at 50 overall.

The point of this? I do not see there being a run on TEs in the first 3 rounds of the 2020 draft. And certainly none that will come in and supplant McDonald or Ebron. IF Colbert and Tomlin have a prospect in mind that they want at 49 only because he will not be there at 102 then I am totally fine with that. However, it is my belief that a 'just as good' prospect can be had in the 4th round of this year's TE draft.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

The "NEED" for a TE in this draft typically makes us over-value the players available in this draft that play TE. I do think the Steelers will draft another TE this draft, I just do not think the value is there to take ANY of them at pick 49.

The Draft Network has their highest rated TE at #68 overall.

SI writer Kevin Hanson has his top TE at 61 overall.

The Sporting News writer Vinnie Iyer has his top TE at 49 overall.

Daniel Jeremiah has Kmet as his 42nd overall player in his Top50.

Draft Tek has a TE at 50, and 61 overall and then not until 98 overall.

CBSSports lists thier top rated TE at 50 overall.

The point of this? I do not see there being a run on TEs in the first 3 rounds of the 2020 draft. And certainly none that will come in and supplant McDonald or Ebron. IF Colbert and Tomlin have a prospect in mind that they want at 49 only because he will not be there at 102 then I am totally fine with that. However, it is my belief that a 'just as good' prospect can be had in the 4th round of this year's TE draft.

I don't think they will take one at #49 either. Although I think Kmet may go before 49. Last year Irv Smith went at #50 and then guys like Josh Oliver at #69 and Jace Sternberger at #75.

All 4 guys I mentioned above I would rather have than Josh Oliver or Jace Sternberger and have more upside and demonstrated performance (including Mackey Award Winner - Bryant) and that is part of the reason I think they will be gone before the Steelers draft in the 3rd.

[Born2Steel]

I don't think they will take one at #49 either. Although I think Kmet may go before 49. Last year Irv Smith went at #50 and then guys like Josh Oliver at #69 and Jace Sternberger at #75.

All 4 guys I mentioned above I would rather have than Josh Oliver or Jace Sternberger and have more upside and demonstrated performance (including Mackey Award Winner - Bryant) and that is part of the reason I think they will be gone before the Steelers draft in the 3rd.

And this is why this is so much fun to me. Of the sources I posted they had different TEs as their top TEs and the values were all over the place. Agreed a team will fall for the hype of a player and make a reach hoping for the next Gronk. But the truth is the next Gronk is not in this draft. Still there will probably be 2-4 TEs taken by the Steelers pick at 102. Which ones and by which teams makes the draft interesting to watch for me. The build up is the best of any of the top sports drafts.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

And this is why this is so much fun to me. Of the sources I posted they had different TEs as their top TEs and the values were all over the place. Agreed a team will fall for the hype of a player and make a reach hoping for the next Gronk. But the truth is the next Gronk is not in this draft. Still there will probably be 2-4 TEs taken by the Steelers pick at 102. Which ones and by which teams makes the draft interesting to watch for me. The build up is the best of any of the top sports drafts.

Cool, glad you find it fun too. I just put more stock in sources that have been around football and know the game from the inside-out, rather than the outside-in. Of the sources you listed, I think only D Jeremiah has been a scout and I would have to look who wrote the CBS article you refer to. Vinny Iyer -Sporting News is a fantasy football writer as is Kevin Hanson-SI(runs a website called eatdrinksleepfootball.com), Jordan Reid of The Draft Network is a 28 year old that attended his first NFL combine this year. Reid is the only guy that I know actually played football at UNC Central. Really a bunch of fantasy bloggers that created their own websites and get picked up by other outlets.

I prefer to put stock in guys that have been involved longer, have judged talent for a living like Jeremiah, Zeirline, Casserly, Kiper, McShay, Chad Reuter, Bucky Brooks, Charles Davis, Tony Pauline, etc. A lot of those guys have access to NFL GM's and scouts and get solid info for their rankings.

[Born2Steel]

Cool, glad you find it fun too. I just put more stock in sources that have been around football and know the game from the inside-out, rather than the outside-in. Of the sources you listed, I think only D Jeremiah has been a scout and I would have to look who wrote the CBS article you refer to. Vinny Iyer -Sporting News is a fantasy football writer as is Kevin Hanson-SI(runs a website called eatdrinksleepfootball.com), Jordan Reid of The Draft Network is a 28 year old that attended his first NFL combine this year. Reid is the only guy that I know actually played football at UNC Central. Really a bunch of fantasy bloggers that created their own websites and get picked up by other outlets.

I prefer to put stock in guys that have been involved longer, have judged talent for a living like Jeremiah, Zeirline, Casserly, Kiper, McShay, Chad Reuter, Bucky Brooks, Charles Davis, Tony Pauline, etc. A lot of those guys have access to NFL GM's and scouts and get solid info for their rankings.

I usually only pay attention to Kyle Crabbs at The Draft Network. I don't really know the other guys on there but I have an appreciation for Crabbs' analysis on prospects. He has done this a little while now and I consider him on par with DJ or Kiper/McShay up to this point. Charlie Casserly has been in the GM position but not currently so I do respect his opinion as well. The rest are paid for opinions I listen to but with the understanding they must form an opinion for tv even if they have none in reality. But this thought or that thought on prospects is really the game after all. That's what we're doing here on this forum. We're developing a rating system based off of our own football knowledge from playing, coaching, scouting, reading, film watching, etc...and putting forth an opinion based on that knowledge. No better and no worse than most of the other paid analysts just as unpaid observers. So basically you put stock into what makes you feel more knowledgeable and I'll continue my way, and we'll see what the end result actually turns out to be. I don't see a TE prospect that is going to come in here in 2020 and make much of a difference if any. My opinion is why spend the value there when there are so many other positions of higher talent available? IOL, OT, DL, Edge, SS, WR, RB, ILB even, possibly even CB has better overall prospect value at 49 or 102 than does the TE prospects. I just don't get the rush.

[Born2Steel]

Small example of how I would approach TE in this draft. I used a draft sim, and yes I know they are not completely accurate at all just bear with this.
At 49 I was able to fill a greater need, IMO, with a position flexible IOL. At pick 102 I was able to get one of 'my' top 5 Edge defenders. Pick 124 in the 4th round I took Jared Pinkney TE out of Vandy. Pinkney has already shown in-line blocking ability in the run game and in pass pro. Better in pass pro as a late release but has shown ability to stick on blocks. His route tree and route running are still raw but easier to coach and fix than blocking at the NFL level. AND since we already have Ebron, and Gentry that are pretty much only Y TEs, Pinkney gives some versatility at the position. And he was taken in the 4th via sim. So 102 all the way to 135 is not out of reach for him in reality. Unless there is some info on him I haven't read yet.

Top 5 TEs for the Steelers in this draft IMO based on how they would be used in the 2020 offense:
1. Trautman
2. Deguara
3. Pinkney
4. Keene
5. Parkinson

[teegre]

Nick Vannett signed for $5.7 million for 2 years.

Watt was brought in... Matakevich left... carry the one... From what the comp pick mathematicians are saying: in the 2021 draft, the Steelers currently have a R4 comp pick and two R6 comp picks.