Will the Coming Season be Different Because of COVID-19?

[cold-hard-steel]

Rehabilitated is a very strange word to use when you're talking about people with long term physiological diseases like manic depression, schizophrenia, or even some type of personality disorder which I suspect you may be familiar with.

Oh,you mean people like you? But i would argue you are rehabilitated.

[Craic]

So, some updates on COVID-19 now that we're a few months into it and we are receiving better information. Note, I'll compare against the seasonal flu since that was a common argument.

As of June 29:

Flu: Estimated 39-56 million people got the flu throughout the entire season, and .1 percent died.
Covid 19: 2.5 million reported cases, five to six percent have died. (52 times higher than the flu).
Hospitalization for flu: 69 people per 100k (gen. pop).
Hospitalization for C-19: 98.4 people per 100k (gen. pop).

Age of Patient at Hospitalization	Number of cases per 100k
All Ages	98.4
0-4 years	8.0
5-17 years	3.7
18-49 years	59.2
18-29 years	32.1
30-39 years	59.2
40-49 years	94.1
50-64 years	148.6
65+ years	297.6
65-74 years	216.3
75-84 years	358.2
85+ years	556.2

The above stats are from the CDC. The numbers in the grid are confirmed through lab testing.

R0 rate (called R-nought, the number of people an infected person usually infects)
COVID-19. The mean across several studies puts the R0 rate at 3.28 and a median at 2.79. According to one study looked across several published articles dealing with C-19 R0, they believe it will settle somewhere between 2 and 3. Interestingly, the Flu has an R0 of 2-3.

This last stat is perhaps the most important. Given similar situations, there is no reason to believe COVID-19 would be any less infectious than the flu.

So, as for total number of cases, COVID-19 has only really be active in the US for four months, and at least two of those months most people were stuck in their homes. Even now, many are wearing masks and in other places, they are mandatory. This is in addition to the 6-foot rule. These three things together has drastically slowed down the rate of infection.

All of that said, if COVID-19 has the same R0 number as the flu, then it is also valid to project deaths and hospitalizations at their current COVID-19 rates, based on infection rates for the flu. So, as of right now, using the five percent number for deaths, that'd be 2,350,000 deaths if we went the equivalent of a full flu season without any intervening action. Hospitalization sits at 14 percent as of the end of May. That's 6,580,000 hospitalizations. Moreover, it is almost 1 million ICU admissions (2 percent).

[silver & black]

What are we supposed to do? Are we supposed to just go along with all this shut down shit and wait until all the support money dries up? Are we supposed to just stay in the house and hope and pray that everything will be okay? Are we supposed to just listen to the "experts" that change their minds every week and waffle on simple shit like masks? Are we supposed to not work for 6 months.... a year? What is it that we are supposed to do? It seems to me that we are supposed to be just fine with losing our homes, vehicles and life savings in order to insure that no one dies.

Well.... people ARE going to die. At some point, we MUST just get on with life! If the country is destroyed and people have nothing left of their lives, what is the point of living? How long can the nanny state support the entire country??? We have got to roll up our sleeves and get back on with life!

[Mojouw]

Question is what is a new "normal"?

I don't think things ever fully go back to how it was 6 months ago.

I don't mean laws or regulations but more of what people want and/or comfortable with.

One example; I don't think all people are going to want to give up contactless pickup for a long time.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

There is a good explanation of the math and science here of determining the Reproductive rate of the SARS-COV-2 Coronavirus. Based on 9 studies from different regions of infection there are 5 that cluster around R0=2.6 which is higher than Influenza 1918 (Spring), Zika or Ebola, but lower than Influenza 1918 (Autumn). That puts it at 62% population needed for herd immunity. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-w...ers-r0-and-re/


Seems like that 60-70% number is a fair estimate. Just the general mortality rate is what is really questionable at this present time.

Chart on R0 comparison for @Craic

[st33lersguy]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...s-testing-data

"Trust the CDC to have accurate COVID data"

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/0...-sNgMNkTp1TL-A

A new interesting perspective from a leading hospital. Unfortunately this gets ignored because it goes against the media's narrative of spreading hysteria

[Mojouw]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...s-testing-data

"Trust the CDC to have accurate COVID data"

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/0...-sNgMNkTp1TL-A

A new interesting perspective from a leading hospital. Unfortunately this gets ignored because it goes against the media's narrative of spreading hysteria

Since you read it in the media...that seems to be not true???

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...s-testing-data

"Trust the CDC to have accurate COVID data"

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/0...-sNgMNkTp1TL-A

A new interesting perspective from a leading hospital. Unfortunately this gets ignored because it goes against the media's narrative of spreading hysteria

Tami Minnier, UPMC’s chief quality officer, said “we need to stay vigilant. We need to be able to continue wearing our masks, wearing our masks appropriately, washing your hands frequently, using social distancing. Despite all of the points that Dr. Yealy made, that is our plan going forward for keeping all of us safe.”

Yealy said it’s important for younger people who don’t get very sick from COVID-19 to understand the danger it poses for others.

“We’re not saying go out and do whatever you want. Be smart about it. Use the hand washing. Wear the mask, distance [yourself] if you’re going to visit elderly relatives or immunocompromised friends. Those are still important. That’s the smart public health that we still need to be vigilant about,” he said.

Some good suggestions here by UPMC.

[steelreserve]

So, some updates on COVID-19 now that we're a few months into it and we are receiving better information. Note, I'll compare against the seasonal flu since that was a common argument.

As of June 29:

Flu: Estimated 39-56 million people got the flu throughout the entire season, and .1 percent died.
Covid 19: 2.5 million reported cases, five to six percent have died. (52 times higher than the flu).
Hospitalization for flu: 69 people per 100k (gen. pop).
Hospitalization for C-19: 98.4 people per 100k (gen. pop).

Age of Patient at Hospitalization	Number of cases per 100k
All Ages	98.4
0-4 years	8.0
5-17 years	3.7
18-49 years	59.2
18-29 years	32.1
30-39 years	59.2
40-49 years	94.1
50-64 years	148.6
65+ years	297.6
65-74 years	216.3
75-84 years	358.2
85+ years	556.2

The above stats are from the CDC. The numbers in the grid are confirmed through lab testing.

R0 rate (called R-nought, the number of people an infected person usually infects)
COVID-19. The mean across several studies puts the R0 rate at 3.28 and a median at 2.79. According to one study looked across several published articles dealing with C-19 R0, they believe it will settle somewhere between 2 and 3. Interestingly, the Flu has an R0 of 2-3.

This last stat is perhaps the most important. Given similar situations, there is no reason to believe COVID-19 would be any less infectious than the flu.

So, as for total number of cases, COVID-19 has only really be active in the US for four months, and at least two of those months most people were stuck in their homes. Even now, many are wearing masks and in other places, they are mandatory. This is in addition to the 6-foot rule. These three things together has drastically slowed down the rate of infection.

All of that said, if COVID-19 has the same R0 number as the flu, then it is also valid to project deaths and hospitalizations at their current COVID-19 rates, based on infection rates for the flu. So, as of right now, using the five percent number for deaths, that'd be 2,350,000 deaths if we went the equivalent of a full flu season without any intervening action. Hospitalization sits at 14 percent as of the end of May. That's 6,580,000 hospitalizations. Moreover, it is almost 1 million ICU admissions (2 percent).

That continues to ignore the fact that the number of detected cases is far smaller than the number of actual cases. The studies coming out in May showed 50-100 times more people had been infected than actually knew about it; therefore the disease was 50-100 times less deadly than thought (deaths are much less likely to be missed). That has probably come down to more like 10-20 times more actual than confirmed cases since testing has ramped up - but the 5% number is just incredibly inaccurate and outdated, and continuing to pay any attention with all of the more current information available just leads to stupid calculations, which lead to stupid decisions. Virtually all of the blind antibody studies put the rate at 0.1%-0.3%.

Take that and apply it to the 62% estimated herd immunity rate, and you get it topping out at like 200,000-300,000 deaths before that is achieved and it goes away. If you are not stupid and you manage to isolate the most at-risk people for a couple months (so that the 62% who catch it are primarily young and healthy people), then the death count basically stops where it is now and then everyone goes about their lives.

Of course, then there's this ...

[steelreserve]

Meanwhile, look at the kinds of mental gymnastics going on to try and justify the narrative that the virus magically took a month off for racial injustice but is now back on:

https://coloradosun.com/2020/06/30/p...avirus-spread/

[EzraTank]

So it appears there are about 10 people on this board completely afraid of COVID19 that wish to hide under their beds until 2050.

The media keeps saying cases are spiking (because we are now test MORE) but they aren't talking about the death rates spiking? Hmmm, could it be that the first round took all the older and medically compromised people and this round cases are growing but a herd immunity is being built? The media doesn't want to talk about that. According to Worldometers.com the US has 3,962 new cases and 52 new deaths. Yet somehow we've had 2,731,815 total cases, 130,174 deaths and 1,143,923 recovered.

So if we've had 2,731,815 cases minus the deaths 130,174 then that means there are 2,601,641 people out there with it. They say 1,143,923 have recovered. So that means 1,457,718 have it right now. So if the death rate is really 4% then that means 58,308 more people should die in the next 2-3 weeks. Who wants to bet me that doesn't happen?


Now let's jump to the REAL bullshit going on. For a month it was okay to parade the streets, gather, burn buildings, loot, topple statues mostly without masks but suddenly we need to keep the economy closed until the day after the election.

And of course through all of this China magically only has 4,634 deaths in a country of 1.4 BILLION people. Oh and Sweden who Mojouw brought up, 5,333 deaths total.

[Craic]

~ stuff

Let's say you're right, and the number of cases far exceeds what is here, throwing off the numbers. In that case, the best estimates I've seen for the cases is 40-60 million. If we use those numbers, then the death toll drops from 5 percent to .3 percent. Great! Right? Hold on. It is still three times worse than the flu. This year, the flu killed .1 percent of all people it infected. Moreover, those numbers mean 40-60 million people were infected EVEN THOUGH we went through a quarantine. The spike since the quarantine shows that it was effective in flattening the curve.

Either way, the narrative that "it's no worse than the flu" is wrong. What we're debating here is the degree to which it is worse. Also, from those who have had it, they say it is horrendous to suffer through. So, it's worse in that sense as well.

Look. I'm not saying we should all put on our chicken-little hats and hide under our beds. I'm saying we should be smart about how we go about our business. When your out in public, don't be stupid. Wear a mask. The point of the mask isn't to protect you. It's to protect everyone else because if you have the virus (up to a 14 day incubation period, so you will not know if you have it) and cough, sneeze, or even speak forcefully, the water droplets get stuck in the mask rather than going straight out into the air.

[cold-hard-steel]

New York gets 12,000 dollars of federal money per confirmed case of covid 19 the lowest of all states because they have the most. More cases= more money.

[steelreserve]

Let's say you're right, and the number of cases far exceeds what is here, throwing off the numbers. In that case, the best estimates I've seen for the cases is 40-60 million. If we use those numbers, then the death toll drops from 5 percent to .3 percent. Great! Right? Hold on. It is still three times worse than the flu. This year, the flu killed .1 percent of all people it infected. Moreover, those numbers mean 40-60 million people were infected EVEN THOUGH we went through a quarantine. The spike since the quarantine shows that it was effective in flattening the curve.

Either way, the narrative that "it's no worse than the flu" is wrong. What we're debating here is the degree to which it is worse. Also, from those who have had it, they say it is horrendous to suffer through. So, it's worse in that sense as well.

Look. I'm not saying we should all put on our chicken-little hats and hide under our beds. I'm saying we should be smart about how we go about our business. When your out in public, don't be stupid. Wear a mask. The point of the mask isn't to protect you. It's to protect everyone else because if you have the virus (up to a 14 day incubation period, so you will not know if you have it) and cough, sneeze, or even speak forcefully, the water droplets get stuck in the mask rather than going straight out into the air.

What I am saying is that you do not shut down the country for a disease with a 0.3% fatality rate. Never ever. 0.3% means you should be holding live sporting events with crowds, the bars are open, movie theaters are open, Disneyland is open. You're afraid of going out in public, you don't have to. This is what should have been done from the beginning. None of this should have even been considered.

"But wait!" you're saying. "WAIT! We didn't know that at first! We didn't have enough information to go by, so we HAD to shut down!"

No. That's exactly the point - you didn't have enough information. You don't take drastic actions without enough information. "Believe the science!" they said. There was no science, only guessing. "Trust the experts!" they said. There were no experts, only guessing. They had no information except incomplete information or bad information. That's not science, it's guessing. The whole thing was a hunch.

The underlying HUGE problem here - and why this should never be done again - is that it requires being ok with rushing into life-altering actions with no information. If anything about the way this was handled is "correct," then you have to be ok with doing the same over anything scary that we don't understand. You can't live that way. And it's giving nearly unlimited unilateral power to the government. It's giving unilateral power to non-elected bureaucrats, with no recourse.

More than that, you are being conditioned to feel selfish for wanting completely ordinary things, and guilty for using common sense or trusting your own judgment. That is straight horseshit, and fuck anyone who says otherwise. Not to mention, it is a dangerous state of things when too many people buy into it.

Fuck the lockdown. Fuck the governors who keep trying to drag them out. Fuck Tony Fauci, and fuck everyone who went along with him based on NOTHING except fear and a stupid mob mentality. Can't even do basic science or basic math - because there wasn't even any information to do either in the first place - and so you go ahead and ruin lives and ruin the country. Oh, we just had to do that to be on the safe side, it's the default option now, its fine! Yeah, fuck you, burn in hell. If there is anyone for whom this was not a HUGE wake-up call, I have no idea how they can live with themselves. Scratch that - in stupid ignorance, that's how they can.

[tom444]

New York gets 12,000 dollars of federal money per confirmed case of covid 19 the lowest of all states because they have the most. More cases= more money.

So, according to what you posted, New York gets the lowest amount per confirmed case because they have the most cases, but somehow that means the more cases you have the more money you get?

[st33lersguy]

What I am saying is that you do not shut down the country for a disease with a 0.3% fatality rate. Never ever. 0.3% means you should be holding live sporting events with crowds, the bars are open, movie theaters are open, Disneyland is open. You're afraid of going out in public, you don't have to. This is what should have been done from the beginning. None of this should have even been considered.

"But wait!" you're saying. "WAIT! We didn't know that at first! We didn't have enough information to go by, so we HAD to shut down!"

No. That's exactly the point - you didn't have enough information. You don't take drastic actions without enough information. "Believe the science!" they said. There was no science, only guessing. "Trust the experts!" they said. There were no experts, only guessing. They had no information except incomplete information or bad information. That's not science, it's guessing. The whole thing was a hunch.

The underlying HUGE problem here - and why this should never be done again - is that it requires being ok with rushing into life-altering actions with no information. If anything about the way this was handled is "correct," then you have to be ok with doing the same over anything scary that we don't understand. You can't live that way. And it's giving nearly unlimited unilateral power to the government. It's giving unilateral power to non-elected bureaucrats, with no recourse.

More than that, you are being conditioned to feel selfish for wanting completely ordinary things, and guilty for using common sense or trusting your own judgment. That is straight horseshit, and fuck anyone who says otherwise. Not to mention, it is a dangerous state of things when too many people buy into it.

Fuck the lockdown. Fuck the governors who keep trying to drag them out. Fuck Tony Fauci, and fuck everyone who went along with him based on NOTHING except fear and a stupid mob mentality. Can't even do basic science or basic math - because there wasn't even any information to do either in the first place - and so you go ahead and ruin lives and ruin the country. Oh, we just had to do that to be on the safe side, it's the default option now, its fine! Yeah, fuck you, burn in hell. If there is anyone for whom this was not a HUGE wake-up call, I have no idea how they can live with themselves. Scratch that - in stupid ignorance, that's how they can.

Agreed. No one is ever going to convince me that a virus with probably over a 99% recovery rate was worth a lockdown that helped cause economic problems, mental health problems, and an increase in domestic violence. Stress is a known health issue, let's solve this virus by stress-inducing lockdown. BRILLIANT IDEA! Staying locked in your homes away from stuff you enjoy is in itself an unhealthy way to live and can only cause more health problems than the problem regarding the virus it is trying to solve. But what do I know, I am only a selfish ingrate who cares more about his freedoms than I do preventing old people from getting killed and who refuses to listen to experts (the same experts who can't even keep accurate COVID stats)

[cold-hard-steel]

So, according to what you posted, New York gets the lowest amount per confirmed case because they have the most cases, but somehow that means the more cases you have the more money you get?

Yeah by adding 1000's of cases you get more money. It just so happens that because of the number of New Yorks cases they get less per case.So how do you get more money? You add more cases dumb ass.

4)What has Joe done for the good of the black community?

[steelreserve]

4)What has Joe done for the good of the black community?

If you are arguing about the merits of Joe Biden as a candidate, you're barking up the wrong tree. Their candidate is not Joe Biden, it is "I HATE TRUMP."

The fact that it is Biden specifically should be a huge red flag to most people - not because of anything he has done or stands for, but because he clearly is not going to be the one running the country if he wins, and neither will his VP. A vote for Biden is a straight vote for The Party, whatever that means. Most Democrats are fine with that, which is alarming to say the least.

[st33lersguy]

Yeah by adding 1000's of cases you get more money. It just so happens that because of the number of New Yorks cases they get less per case.So how do you get more money? You add more cases dumb ass.

4)What has Joe done for the good of the black community?

Give up now, he will never answer your question

[T&B fan]

Yeah by adding 1000's of cases you get more money. It just so happens that because of the number of New Yorks cases they get less per case.So how do you get more money? You add more cases dumb ass.

4)What has Joe done for the good of the black community?

he let them play with the white hair on his legs

[cold-hard-steel]

If you are arguing about the merits of Joe Biden as a candidate, you're barking up the wrong tree. Their candidate is not Joe Biden, it is "I HATE TRUMP."

The fact that it is Biden specifically should be a huge red flag to most people - not because of anything he has done or stands for, but because he clearly is not going to be the one running the country if he wins, and neither will his VP. A vote for Biden is a straight vote for The Party, whatever that means. Most Democrats are fine with that, which is alarming to say the least.

Yeah,their party seems to have forgotten how the very same strategy played out the last time they deployed it.Almost a mirror image that put Nixon it the white house. They are the best thing we have for the Rep.campaign. I actually hope they ramp it up more.

[cold-hard-steel]

[86WARD]

Bidens a red flag. Trumps not a red flag? Lol.

[Mojouw]

Literacy.

[Craic]

Bidens a red flag. Trumps not a red flag? Lol.

Trump is a loud-mouth, overbearing jackass. However, I'm coming to believe he is crazy like a fox. There's a pattern and a purpose to what he does. Biden, however, seems to be slowly losing some of his mental sharpness. That is the big red flag for me.

[FrancoLambert]

Trump is a loud-mouth, overbearing jackass. However, I'm coming to believe he is crazy like a fox. There's a pattern and a purpose to what he does. Biden, however, seems to be slowly losing some of his mental sharpness. That is the big red flag for me.

Crazy like a fox...when it comes to business deals or getting the attention of others.
Not so much when it pertains to leading our country.
I agree that Biden might be slowing down, but a Trump is a lazy president. Many of his former inner circle people have made that claim.

[vader29]

“No one has died from the coronavirus” says leading pathologist

A high-profile European pathologist is reporting that he and his colleagues across Europe have not found any evidence of any deaths from the novel coronavirus on that continent.

Dr. Stoian Alexov called the World Health Organization (WHO) a “criminal medical organization” for creating worldwide fear and chaos without providing objectively verifiable proof of a pandemic.

Another stunning revelation from Bulgarian Pathology Association (BPA) president Dr. Alexov is that he believes it’s currently “impossible” to create a vaccine against the virus.

He also revealed that European pathologists haven’t identified any antibodies that are specific for SARS-CoV-2.

These stunning statements raise major questions, including about officials’ and scientists’ claims regarding the many vaccines they’re rushing into clinical trials around the world.

They also raise doubt about the veracity of claims of discovery of anti-novel-coronavirus antibodies (which are beginning to be used to treat patients).

Novel-coronavirus-specific antibodies are supposedly the basis for the expensive serology test kits being used in many countries (some of which have been found to be unacceptably inaccurate).

And they’re purportedly key to the immunity certificates coveted by Bill Gates that are about to go into widespread use — in the form of the COVI-PASS — in 15 countries including the UK, US, and Canada.

Read more:https://australiannationalreview.com...g-pathologist/

[Mojouw]

None fantasy cook news source:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mediabi...-review/%3famp

And while the doc is a real doctor, may want to read a bit more in his field:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0897-1

Virus specific antibodies in 80-100% of patients.

[T&B fan]

“No one has died from the coronavirus” .....

ok well lets look at it this way . man is stabbed 20 times with knife and dies ... man did not die from stabbing or knife , he dies from loss of blood . yea that is what the good Dr is saying

[Mojouw]

This is why we are still dealing with this. Too many people are just flat out gullible and ignorant.

If any of what Bulgarian Bob said was even 1/10 true some conspiracy website out of Australia would not be the place that “broke” the story.

I saw multiple people say with a straight face that a mask would poison them with CO2. How? If you can get oxygen in how is the carbon dioxide not getting out?

I’m really not trying to land on anyone individually, but far too many people clearly either truly believe or want to believe in this hot nonsense.