Will the Coming Season be Different Because of COVID-19?

[tom444]

Lessons learned from the Spanish Flu, and why it's being referenced now. The point is to avoid a worse case scenario.

Does social distancing work?

Experts point to lessons from history that indicate these measures work, including those from the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. A 2007 PNAS study found that cities that deployed multiple interventions at an early phase of the pandemic—such as closing schools and banning public gatherings—had significantly lower death rates.

Although Inglesby says the concept has little modern precedent at a large scale, he points to an early study, not yet peer reviewed, showing the different experience of peak coronavirus rates for two Chinese cities. The city of Guangzhou, which implemented disease control measures early into the outbreak, had significantly lower numbers of hospitalizations from COVID-19 on its peak day than the city of Wuhan, which put measures in place a month into the outbreak.

Inglesby says people shouldn't fret about a "perfect" approach to social distancing: "It's a big country and we will need partial solutions that fit into different communities. A 75% solution to a social distancing measure may be all that is possible … [which] is a lot better than 0%, or forcing a 100% solution that will fail."

https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/03/13/what-...al-distancing/

[tom444]

"Flatening the curve" is what is being attempted right now through social distancing.

This chart of the 1918 Spanish flu shows why social distancing works

Michael J. CorenMarch 11, 2020
In 1918, the city of Philadelphia threw a parade that killed thousands of people. Ignoring warnings of influenza among soldiers preparing for World War I, the march to support the war effort drew 200,000 people who crammed together to watch the procession. Three days later, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled with sick and dying patients, infected by the Spanish flu.
By the end of the week, more than 4,500 were dead in an outbreak that would claim as many as 100 million people worldwide. By the time Philadelphia’s politicians closed down the city, it was too late.


Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesA different story played out in St. Louis, just 900 miles away. Within two days of detecting its first cases among civilians, the city closed schools, playgrounds, libraries, courtrooms, and even churches. Work shifts were staggered and streetcar ridership was strictly limited. Public gatherings of more than 20 people were banned.
The extreme measures—now known as social distancing, which is being called for by global health agencies to mitigate the spread of the novel coronavirus—kept per capita flu-related deaths in St. Louis to less than half of those in Philadelphia, according to a 2007 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The concept of “flattening the curve” is now a textbook public health responseto epidemics, including the spread of Covid-19. Once a virus can no longer be contained, the goal is to slow its spread. Exponential growth in infections leaves health care systems struggling to handle the surge. But with fewer people sick at once (and overall), services aren’t overwhelmed and deaths diminish. This buys time for doctors to treat the flood of patients and researchers to develop vaccines and antiviral therapies.

https://qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-th...tancing-works/

[GoSlash27]

So why do you think it is happening

That all of these governments have lost their collective minds?

I confess to having neither the general expertise or access to the data upon which to form a credible opinion as to whether or not the response is appropriate

That lack of self-confidence is a shortcoming of mine that is not shared by other posters

It seems pretty simple to me: They're doing this because it's literally the only thing they can do. There's no cure, no vaccine, not enough tests or masks. Social isolation is the only weapon in their arsenal.
As for why they're choosing to fight COVID 19 at all instead of simply letting it run it's course, what politician or public health official would ever say that sort of thing out loud? They might privately think it, but they would never say it or do it. Public perception and backlash is, after all, a real thing. Particularly when there's sensationalism and panic. Seasonal flu is a different matter because 1) it's tacitly accepted by the general public that it's impractical to fight it in this way and 2) nobody panics over the flu.
They have every incentive to implement every draconian measure they can think of (whether effective or not), and no disincentive.

So yeah... In my mind all of this is a foolish and costly overreaction, but they are bound to do it anyway. I can say that because I'm not running for office

[vader29]

[tom444]

Gee, I wonder where Chuck Woolery is coming from?

[Mojouw]

there are several variables to compare when looking at viral outbreaks.

Mortality is one. And the specific death rates of different viruses vary wildly. The 1918 flu was deadlier and that should be taken into consideration.

Another is the rate of transmission or R0. Right now the R0 of corona is holding steady at 2 times that of a typical influenza. But here is the troubling bit. It appears to have the same R0 Value as the 1918 flu.

So take those two variables together. You will have a large pool of infected (morbidity) and a lower pool of deaths (mortality). Based on lessons from the past (which are appropriate) steps are being taken to lower the mortality rate by decreasing the # of carriers and slowing rates of transmission.

The other thing to keep in mind is that seasonal flu moves through a population that has both vaccines and organic immunities based on previous exposure. This "novel" virus is moving through a global population with zero immumity. Additionally, this viruses appears to be far hardier than a typical seasonal flu. living on surfaces outside of a host for 2-3 times as long.

[GoSlash27]

there are several variables to compare when looking at viral outbreaks.

Mortality is one. And the specific death rates of different viruses vary wildly. The 1918 flu was deadlier and that should be taken into consideration.

Another is the rate of transmission or R0. Right now the R0 of corona is holding steady at 2 times that of a typical influenza. But here is the troubling bit. It appears to have the same R0 Value as the 1918 flu.

So take those two variables together. You will have a large pool of infected (morbidity) and a lower pool of deaths (mortality). Based on lessons from the past (which are appropriate) steps are being taken to lower the mortality rate by decreasing the # of carriers and slowing rates of transmission.

The other thing to keep in mind is that seasonal flu moves through a population that has both vaccines and organic immunities based on previous exposure. This "novel" virus is moving through a global population with zero immumity. Additionally, this viruses appears to be far hardier than a typical seasonal flu. living on surfaces outside of a host for 2-3 times as long.

Oh, cut out the 1918 Spanish Flu fear mongering. That had a high morbidity due to cytokine storm reactions and an unusually dense and mobile pool of victims. It had fuck- all to do with "r-0". That has absolutely nothing to do with this and it's a stupid comparison.

[tom444]

Why you want to flatten the curve:

Paramedics carry a hazardous medical waste box as patients lie on beds at one of the emergency structures that were set up at the Brescia hospital in northern Italy. Hospitals in Italy have been overwhelmed.LUCA BRUNO/ASSOCIATED PRESS


ROME – “As in any war, we have to choose who to treat and who not.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/...o-what-we-did/

[Mojouw]

Oh, cut out the 1918 Spanish Flu fear mongering. That had a high morbidity due to cytokine storm reactions and an unusually dense and mobile pool of victims. It had fuck- all to do with "r-0". That has absolutely nothing to do with this and it's a stupid comparison.

I've totally previously acknowledged all that. I've not said they are the same. Morbidity versus mortality and all that. The dense and then mobile pool of carriers is a relevant comparison because it is part of the justification for limitations on gatherings and travel.

The two viruses infect at similar rates. They kill at far different rates, particularly in otherwise healthy adults.

It is possible to make relevant comparisons as long as the variables are defined. You know, science. We've been doing it for several centuries.

And if you want to demonstrate your vast technical knowledge, learn the difference between morbidity and mortality. One means infected one means dead.

https://media3.giphy.com/media/R6bDgXEXCLcIw/giphy.gif

[AtlantaDan]

Not The Onion

[GoSlash27]

The dense and then mobile pool of carriers is a relevant comparison because it is part of the justification for limitations on gatherings and travel.

Not really though. In that instance we had an abnormally large percentage of the of the most vulnerable population packed together in tents, trains, and ships. That made something that would've normally killed a few people and burned out quickly instead go pandemic, like an ebola outbreak in Tokyo.
That literally could not happen again today without a repeat of WWI and forgetting literally everything we know about virology.

So what I'm saying is that if you're trying to draw a comparison between the two like what is going on right now could possibly go the same way, it's a stupid and dangerous comparison that does nothing but foster panic.
If, OTOH, you're just pointing out that social distancing is effective, then yeah, obviously... But nobody's arguing that it's not.

BTW, I got into studying the subject of the 1918 swine flu outbreak about 10 years ago. I tend to study a lot of weird topics. I've forgotten more about that particular subject than you've ever learned, occasional misuse of technical jargon notwithstanding.

[tom444]

BTW, I got into studying the subject of the 1918 swine flu outbreak about 10 years ago. I tend to study a lot of weird topics. I've forgotten more about that particular subject than you've ever learned, occasional misuse of technical jargon notwithstanding.

Apparently you didn't learn much because there is no way you should underestimate how dangerous COVID 19 could be.

[Mojouw]

Not really though. In that instance we had an abnormally large percentage of the of the most vulnerable population packed together in tents, trains, and ships. That made something that would've normally killed a few people and burned out quickly instead go pandemic, like an ebola outbreak in Tokyo.
That literally could not happen again today without a repeat of WWI and forgetting literally everything we know about virology.

So what I'm saying is that if you're trying to draw a comparison between the two like what is going on right now could possibly go the same way, it's a stupid and dangerous comparison that does nothing but foster panic.
If, OTOH, you're just pointing out that social distancing is effective, then yeah, obviously... But nobody's arguing that it's not.

BTW, I got into studying the subject of the 1918 swine flu outbreak about 10 years ago. I tend to study a lot of weird topics. I've forgotten more about that particular subject than you've ever learned, occasional misuse of technical jargon notwithstanding.

Again, I never made or implied a one to one comparisons of outcomes. I've specifically restricted it to infection rates and what happens when you clump people together and then disperse them globally during an outbreak.

Like you said, I was only going after social distance and restricted movement, which many are still questioning.

I've gone done the 1918 flu research rabbit hole both professionally and personally. It's a fascinating subject and the only truly global outbreak we have flawed but some records for study.

[GoSlash27]

Like you said, I was only going after social distance and restricted movement, which many are still questioning.

Nobody here and nobody of any import elsewhere has questioned whether social distancing or movement restrictions are effective. That's not something that needs explaining, because we already know that. The question is whether or not it's justified. Is this disease dangerous enough to warrant the social and economic dislocation that comes with the lockdowns?
We have made that decision with seasonal flu; no it's not. I have yet to find an explanation to justify why it's different for COVID 19. *That's* the question.

[Mojouw]

Nobody here and nobody of any import elsewhere has questioned whether social distancing or movement restrictions are effective. That's not something that needs explaining, because we already know that. The question is whether or not it's justified. Is this disease dangerous enough to warrant the social and economic dislocation that comes with the lockdowns?
We have made that decision with seasonal flu; no it's not. I have yet to find an explanation to justify why it's different for COVID 19. *That's* the question.

I suspect it is because it is about twice as transmittable as the seasonal flu, lives 2-3 times as long outside the host, and seems to kill at a higher rate. Couple that with the total lack of immunity in the population and I think some folks are just not confident about where/when this burns itself out. It could go low during warmer/humid weather and then come roaring back in the fall.

I don't know and I am not certain anyone really does. That may be the answer in and of itself? Uncertainity=anxiety=reaction?

[GoSlash27]

I don't know and I am not certain anyone really does. That may be the answer in and of itself? Uncertainity=anxiety=reaction?

For sure you don't know and I don't know. The people making these decisions don't know either unless they're hiding key information from us. It is entirely possible that this reaction is grossly excessive, in fact more likely than not. They're still going to err on the side of excess, even if they know it's excessive.

Bringing it full circle, there is no reason for you (or anyone else) to keep bringing up the 1918 H1N1 pandemic in this context. It was completely unrelated to this outbreak, was not something that this can ever even remotely approach, and doesn't serve to answer any questions that anyone's actually asking.

[tom444]

Bringing it full circle, there is no reason for you (or anyone else) to keep bringing up the 1918 H1N1 pandemic in this context. It was completely unrelated to this outbreak, was not something that this can ever even remotely approach, and doesn't serve to answer any questions that anyone's actually asking.

This can't even remotely approach? Of course this can remotely approach the Spanish Flu. Do you know what an overwhelmed health system looks like?

[tom444]

Take this very seriously says Dr. Fauci. Don't panic people, work together, and take it seriously.

America's death toll from coronavirus will depend on nation's response, top infectious disease expert warns

Washington (CNN) — The nation's top infectious disease expert on Sunday warned that hundreds of thousands could die nationwide if America doesn't take necessary action to curb the spread of coronavirus.

Asked on by CNN's Brianna Keiler on "State of the Union" if hundreds of thousands could die from coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci said that "it could happen, and it could be worse."

LISTEN: The Coronavirus: Fact vs. Fiction Podcast

"Our challenge is to try and make that not happen," continued Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.
Fauci emphasized that it's imperative for Americans to recognize the risks of the virus and take actions to prevent its spread if they want to reduce the potential death toll from the pandemic.

"If we go about our daily lives and not worry about everything" then the death toll could be high, he said, adding: "To me that's real impetus to take very seriously the kinds of things" the public should do.
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65098)]"People sometimes think that I'm overreacting. I like it when people are thinking I'm overreacting because that means we're doing it just right," Fauci said.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/polit...ths/index.html

[FrancoLambert]

Apparently you didn't learn much because there is no way you should underestimate how dangerous COVID 19 could be.

THIS

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Is there anybody willing to retract their statement that this whole situation was overhyped and that we’re all overreacting?

Still, no takers?

[86WARD]

All bars and restaurants (in addition to all the public places) have been ordered to close in my area. They are only allowed to be open for carry-out or delivery at this point. Crazy...

[Craic]

For sure you don't know and I don't know. The people making these decisions don't know either unless they're hiding key information from us. It is entirely possible that this reaction is grossly excessive, in fact more likely than not. They're still going to err on the side of excess, even if they know it's excessive.

Bringing it full circle, there is no reason for you (or anyone else) to keep bringing up the 1918 H1N1 pandemic in this context. It was completely unrelated to this outbreak, was not something that this can ever even remotely approach, and doesn't serve to answer any questions that anyone's actually asking.

Hmm. I think I'll take the CDC's information over yours. Their estimates:

COVID-19 Low end: 200,000 deaths if nothing is done. High end: 1,500,000 deaths if nothing is done.
Spanish flu: Low end: 500,000 deaths. High End: 650,000 deaths.

However, the percent of population is much lower for COVID-19 as there were only 105 million in the nation and now, there's over 3 times that number.

So, it's not like the Spanish flu in that it attacks the body in a very different way. It is like the Spanish flu in that we're looking at similar number of deaths if nothing is done to stop it. Also, COVID-19 is comparable in the economic damage it can cause. In fact, there are estimates that its economic damage will be much greater than the Spanish Flu.
-----------------------------------------------
Pro Tip: Broad, sweeping statements are usually wrong. No matter which way they cut. (And no, that's not an ironic statement as I said usually not always).

[AtlantaDan]

Yikes

Guess this was rolled out this afternoon not just to calm down US markets but Asia & European markets before they open

Great to have liquidity but not certain how any small business that is getting clobbered will convince a bank to loan money to it at any rate unless the feds guarantee the loans

Meanwhile

[EzraTank]

Me too man. Not to get to political but I find it very concerning that most of our medicines/antibiotics are produced and shipped in from China. We've allowed this to happen to ourselves, now with no shipping we have no way of getting our meds and no way to produce them here quickly as our manufacturing got moved to other countries. This could turn pretty bad very quickly if they don't get it under control soon.

At one point in time not too long ago we had this thing called World War 2. Overnight US factories started cranking out tanks, planes and naval ships. We built the Atomic bomb from theory.

I'd have to say that if push came to shove we COULD convert (or build) factories to do these things. It's only been in the more recent generations that we have been used to having anything we need with a push of a button.

DEEP BREATHS (as long as your 6 foot from people), we'll be fine.

[EzraTank]

I great watch is Joe Rogan's 1439 podcast (1.5 hours, a little long but worth the watch) with:

Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.

The guy knows his stuff and dispels a lot of myths floating out there on the internet. Rogan pretty much let's him talk, no shocking graphics, scary music just a 94 minute interview with someone who knows their shit. Towards the end he shows a Wuhan, "wet market" and talks about it. It's 3rd world shit like this that causes these outbreaks and it's disgusting.

[Mojouw]

Hmm. I think I'll take the CDC's information over yours. Their estimates:

COVID-19 Low end: 200,000 deaths if nothing is done. High end: 1,500,000 deaths if nothing is done.
Spanish flu: Low end: 500,000 deaths. High End: 650,000 deaths.

However, the percent of population is much lower for COVID-19 as there were only 105 million in the nation and now, there's over 3 times that number.

So, it's not like the Spanish flu in that it attacks the body in a very different way. It is like the Spanish flu in that we're looking at similar number of deaths if nothing is done to stop it. Also, COVID-19 is comparable in the economic damage it can cause. In fact, there are estimates that its economic damage will be much greater than the Spanish Flu.
-----------------------------------------------
Pro Tip: Broad, sweeping statements are usually wrong. No matter which way they cut. (And no, that's not an ironic statement as I said usually not always).

Further, best estimates, indicate that an infected person transfers the infection at the same rate (about 2 people) for COVID-19 and the Spanish flu versus about 1 person for the typical seasonal influenza. It needs to be stressed that this does not mean every one of the infected will even develop symptoms (many do not) nor does it mean that every infected person will die (again, many do not). BUT -- this particular virus is far more "infectious" than a standard flu bug -- hence the use of the Spanish flu as a comparison.

Again...not to say that the two infections will have equivalent outcomes and that they attack the host in the same manner -- but the rate of spread is similar.

- - - Updated - - -

I great watch is Joe Rogan's 1439 podcast (1.5 hours, a little long but worth the watch) with:



The guy knows his stuff and dispels a lot of myths floating out there on the internet. Rogan pretty much let's him talk, no shocking graphics, scary music just a 94 minute interview with someone who knows their shit. Towards the end he shows a Wuhan, "wet market" and talks about it. It's 3rd world shit like this that causes these outbreaks and it's disgusting.

I will have to watch the whole thing. But Silver and Black (I think) posted a video a bit back up this thread that also broke down wet markets. Truly amazing sets of circumstances that are coming together to repeatedly cause outbreaks.

Almost like government regulation and oversight is an actual useful thing...

[EzraTank]

Almost like government regulation and oversight is an actual useful thing...

The wet markets truly are disgusting. True 3rd world (closer to 4th world) shit going on. There are plenty of videos out there that shows them. Dogs in cages, all kinds of other livestock in cages, raw meat not on ice or refrigerated, and like the guy in in the Rogan video says multiple LIVE species being stored right onto of each other so viruses can be spread across species ...

It's scary shit and you can only hope that the Chinese Government uses this as a wake up call to put an end to this culture shit. If they don't at this point I don't mind paying a little extra for my goods and basically tell China to FUCK off and move all our manufacturing back to this side of the world.

[Mojouw]

The wet markets truly are disgusting. True 3rd world (closer to 4th world) shit going on. There are plenty of videos out there that shows them. Dogs in cages, all kinds of other livestock in cages, raw meat not on ice or refrigerated, and like the guy in in the Rogan video says multiple LIVE species being stored right onto of each other so viruses can be spread across species ...

It's scary shit and you can only hope that the Chinese Government uses this as a wake up call to put an end to this culture shit. If they don't at this point I don't mind paying a little extra for my goods and basically tell China to FUCK off and move all our manufacturing back to this side of the world.

It is my understanding that the Chinese government is ENCOURAGING these markets. Although, I've only seen and read a few things on them.

[GoSlash27]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Hate to burst everyone's bubble, but COVID 19 hit it's inflection point last month in China and a couple days ago everywhere else. Total cases should be 180,000 to 200,000 total cases globally with a whopping 6,000 deaths total. Yinz are gonna have to find something else to panic over.

Also, COVID-19 is comparable in the economic damage it can cause. In fact, there are estimates that its economic damage will be much greater than the Spanish Flu.

You mean, of course, the economic damage the response has caused.

[AtlantaDan]

CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-covid-19.html

That officially takes out the public spectacle NFL draft in late April and pro sports with fans in the stands until at least mid-May

With college pro days and scouts/coaches travel to evaluate players currently on ice hard to guess when and how the draft will be conducted

[tom444]

CDC, in accordance with its guidance for large events and mass gatherings, recommends that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...-covid-19.html

That officially takes out the public spectacle NFL draft in late April and pro sports with fans in the stands until at least mid-May

With college pro days and scouts/coaches travel to evaluate players currently on ice hard to guess when and how the draft will be conducted

I've seen a lot of impressive actions/responses from federal, state, and town governments today. Things are moving along. Lets hope it works.