Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
OK. So turn it on its head. What are the mathematical benchmarks and metrics that would have to be in operation for you to feel that the current response level was appropriate? At what level do you stop asking questions and would just say "Yeah. This is what needs to happen."

Killing double digit percentage? Start killing prime aged adults at an increased rate? If so what is that rate? Don't worry about what is or actually will happen. That is not what I am asking. What would trigger a massive response if you were in charge of it all?
Ah, now THAT is really the entire question, isn't it?

This particular response, what we are doing right now, is an apocalyptic response that should be reserved for apocalyptic crises. A plague with a 50% death rate (literally a Black Death/12 Monkeys situation, nothing less). An active war zone with ongoing random mortar fire. The week or two after a hurricane when it is basically anarchy. That's it. Period.

Should this virus right now trigger a "massive response?" Absolutely. That does not mean a wartime lockdown, though. All the mobilization of medical and industrial resources - great idea. Postponing, or at least modifying or discouraging, large events - super idea. Encouraging changes in day-to-day-behavior, thinking twice about things - totally on board with that. Even things like split shifts at jobs, closing schools for a period - you could convince me. De facto martial law for 2-3 months, nobody leaves the house, tens of millions lose their jobs - BUZZ. It had better be the plague.

All of the things on that list, save the last one, were done to varying degrees in the 1918 epidemic (which I believe had a 10-15% death rate) and others, and were deemed pretty successful, reasonable precautions. No denying it would help to a measurable extent with the current situation. Does going from there to here help even more? Probably. Is it worth it? That's a hard no from me. Reasonable precautions, not crazy ones, that's what I am for. These are crazy.