Will the Coming Season be Different Because of COVID-19?

[tube517]

The testing shortage is catastrophic: It means that no one knows how bad the outbreak already is, and that we couldn’t take effectively aggressive measures even we wanted to. There are so few tests available, or so little capacity to run them, that they are being rationed for only the most obvious candidates, which practically defeats the purpose. It is not those who are very sick or who have traveled to existing hot spots abroad who are most critical to identify, but those less obvious, gray-area cases — people who may be carrying the disease around without much reason to expect they’re infecting others. Into this vacuum has stepped the Gates Foundation and Amazon, which are trying to deliver large-scale testing capacity at least within Seattle. But in what awful, dysfunctional universe do we live that it has fallen to private companies and philanthropies to deliver necessary medical support in a time of American pandemic? There is probably no stronger argument for public health care than the crisis we are living through today, and no more grotesque indictment of our present system that leading providers and insurers had to be cajoled into waiving fees and co-pays to even deliver tests. Nevertheless, there is a pathetically inadequate testing capacity, such that even patients with obviously concerning symptoms are being turned away. Even those who are getting tested have to wait at least several days for results; in Senegal, where the per capita income is less than $3,000, they are getting results in four hours. Yesterday, apparently, the CDC conducted zero tests.

From: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...is-broken.html

When Senegal is more prepared than the US -- someone done screwed up. Don't really care about your political affiliation or philosophy.

This article says 10 minutes!

https://qz.com/africa/1816621/corona...-with-uk-help/

[43Hitman]

Yeah. I originally wasn't at all concerned about any of this. Was totally unaware of how wholly unprepared, unequipped, and uninterested the federal government has seemed in proactively responding to this. I don't want to get this turned all the around into some sort of political yelling match...but I will say this....know who is able to send experts, equipment, and doctors to Italy when they appealed to the international community for assistance? Not the US. But China. China. Remember when that was what made the US great? Whenever there was a crisis, everyone, everywhere knew the US could be counted on to lead the way?

I agree, and I'm with you about the political stuff, its time for the adults to have adult conversations. We should have never let our manufacturing of medical supplies, vaccines, etc. etc. be shipped overseas. If we had those here now, we could attack this appropriately. We should have never let the insurance companies completely dictate the narrative on health care in this country. Like you mentioned earlier the fact that they had to be cajoled into waiving fees is ludicrous. Not everyone is going to agree, thats why there has to be give and take, compromise, but our elected officials refused to do that and we end up here. Unprepared, bickering, and playing the blame game. Simply pathetic. We should be embarrassed, the whole lot of us.

[tom444]

No surprise. For those who might think this just feeds into panic? No, taking something seriously is not panic. In the end it saves lives.


"Trump Declares National Emergency as Virus Outbreak Worsens

President Donald Trump declared a national emergency on Friday over the coronavirus outbreak, opening the door to more federal aid for states and municipalities.

The declaration allows the government to marshal additional resources to combat the virus. It also marks a symbolic turning point for the president, who has repeatedly compared the coronavirus to the seasonal flu and insisted that his administration had the outbreak under control.

The outbreak “could get worse,” Trump said at a press conference in the Rose Garden. “The next eight weeks are critical.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...video-k7qmbptl

[FrancoLambert]

Is there anybody willing to retract their statement that this whole situation was overhyped and that we’re all overreacting?

[steelreserve]

Is there anybody willing to retract their statement that this whole situation was overhyped and that we’re all overreacting?

It still looks that way to me. More hype and panic in proportion to the same event means it's MORE of an overreaction, not less.

I still see no difference between this and any other Scary Asian Flu That Gets Its Own Name that you read about every few years, during which schools stay open, and sporting events go on, and toilet paper is abundant. Except for some reason, THIS was the one for which it was decided to go into a full-on apeshit panic.

Like, the H1N1 virus was orders of magnitude more dangerous than this, and people kind of went, "hmm, that's not good, but in the grand scheme of things, it's comparatively not that big, and we'll probably be OK without totally upending society across the entire world."

Anyway, to reiterate: No, the fact that the panic has gotten even further out of hand does not somehow mean that is less unhinged.

[Shoes]

Is there anybody willing to retract their statement that this whole situation was overhyped and that we’re all overreacting?

It is hype imo, like everything else the media dribbles out. Common sense is the order of the day, just like every other flu season. There are many instances where a group of folks have been exposed, some get it others don't.

In Stockholm they have switched gears by focusing on protecting the elderly and people in the hospital with underlying health conditions, so testing will be mainly limited to those at-risk groups from now on.

The vast majority of patients get only a mild version of the virus and don't need treatment, but of course common sense must rule not hype.

[86WARD]

I want my normal hand sanitizer that I have in my car. Of course mine is running out now. How about some paper towels? If I gotta take a dump at home, I don’t really need TP cause I can just shower it out, but I’d like to have my normal ration of ass-wipes...you know...other than you guys around here...you know who you are...

People gettin all crazy over the flu...lol

[steelreserve]

It is hype imo, like everything else the media dribbles out. Common sense is the order of the day, just like every other flu season. There are many instances where a group of folks have been exposed, some get it others don't.

In Stockholm they have switched gears by focusing on protecting the elderly and people in the hospital with underlying health conditions, so testing will be mainly limited to those at-risk groups from now on.

The vast majority of patients get only a mild version of the virus and don't need treatment, but of course common sense must rule not hype.

Possibly the worst effect of this entire fiasco is that, when it fizzles out in a month or so (as it likely would have on its own) ... the herd will say, "We DID it! All these crazy measures WORKED!"

Then we can look forward to more of the same BULLSHIT every time someone sneezes wrong. People will actually believe, in their heart of hearts, that the freakout was a good thing and worth repeating.

People really ought to be a little more worried than they are about what has happened to their own general freedom as a result of this. On a very fundamental level, freedom of assembly has been suspended, and in some states at least, the government has put commandeering private property on the table. Those by themselves are, like, so out of bounds that there had usually better be a war going on for them to even be considered.

Then the "softer" freedom of just living your everyday life - everything canceled and shut down, essential services curtailed, travel restricted, shortages of food and supplies ... I mean, those types of things happened briefly after 9/11, and before that probably not since World War II. Now it's just "ok, this is fine, do your part, we're all in this together?" And all because of the goddamn FLU. Are you shitting me?

What a lot more people ought to be asking is, if we're willing to open Pandora's Box for this, when will it happen next? These are drastic, once-in-a-lifetime measures, and we have just dramatically lowered the bar for them if this is ok. Will this happen every time they discover a new type of HxNx virus? Are cities going on lockdown any time a couple hundred people are in the hospital? Taken to the full extent, is it conceivable that 10 years from now, there will be a push to say, "omg, it's a climate crisis, we've polluted too much this year, we're shutting down all the refineries for two months and banning all air travel?" We're not there yet, but I certainly see elements of that among the influencers out there.

Overall, this sets a very, very bad precedent, and people should be a whole lot more upset about that than they are right now.

[Craic]

Is there anybody willing to retract their statement that this whole situation was overhyped and that we’re all overreacting?

Nope. Because the public is completely overreacting. Again, We are running short of TOILET PAPER. There has been a run on ammunition. Neither of those things have anything to do with the virus except absolute worst-case scenarios of this turning into a toilet-paper-stealing-zombie apocalypse.

As for the government's reaction, they're listening to the CDC, WHO, and you can bet USAMRIID is involved as well (United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Disease—Military institution tasked with defending again bio-weapons). All three of those are scientists who operate based on scientific data or, at the very least, educated guesses based on scientific data. There's no problem there.

See the difference? People (in general) need to sit down, take a very deep breath, and shut up for a few days and let experts deal with it without having to worry about the press overhyping the situation and driving secondary crises that will end up have a much bigger impact on this nation and the world in general, as well as forcing a diversion of attention from the primary issue.

[steelreserve]

Nope. Because the public is completely overreacting. Again, We are running short of TOILET PAPER. There has been a run on ammunition. Neither of those things have anything to do with the virus except absolute worst-case scenarios of this turning into a toilet-paper-stealing-zombie apocalypse.

As for the government's reaction, they're listening to the CDC, WHO, and you can bet USAMRIID is involved as well (United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Disease—Military institution tasked with defending again bio-weapons). All three of those are scientists who operate based on scientific data or, at the very least, educated guesses based on scientific data. There's no problem there.

See the difference? People (in general) need to sit down, take a very deep breath, and shut up for a few days and let experts deal with it without having to worry about the press overhyping the situation and driving secondary crises that will end up have a much bigger impact on this nation and the world in general, as well as forcing a diversion of attention from the primary issue.

This is generally on the mark, but I would add that a lot of what public officials do (here and all the time) is lowest common denominator stuff aimed at placating idiots.

If the CDC says to practice good sanitation habits, be aware if you are at risk, and use common sense to avoid unnecessary exposure, then that probably bears consideration.

If, on the other hand, Governor Gavin Newsom says we must avoid public gatherings above the magic number of 250 (except of course at Indian casinos and Disneyland for some reason), or that we must shut down all the schools for three weeks ... well guess how much Gavin Newsom's judgment means to me. I'd probably do just as well listening to a barking dog. Anyway, THAT kind of judgment has just gotten way out of hand and has little to do with actual medical recommendations.

[silver & black]

No surprise. For those who might think this just feeds into panic? No, taking something seriously is not panic. In the end it saves lives.


"Trump Declares National Emergency as Virus Outbreak Worsens

President Donald Trump declared a national emergency on Friday over the coronavirus outbreak, opening the door to more federal aid for states and municipalities.

The declaration allows the government to marshal additional resources to combat the virus. It also marks a symbolic turning point for the president, who has repeatedly compared the coronavirus to the seasonal flu and insisted that his administration had the outbreak under control.

The outbreak “could get worse,” Trump said at a press conference in the Rose Garden. “The next eight weeks are critical.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...video-k7qmbptl

For what it's worth, I agree with you. I still think the utter panic is just nuts. Our country is the the greatest in the world. Our medical professionals are second to none. We will get through this.

- - - Updated - - -

I agree, and I'm with you about the political stuff, its time for the adults to have adult conversations. We should have never let our manufacturing of medical supplies, vaccines, etc. etc. be shipped overseas. If we had those here now, we could attack this appropriately. We should have never let the insurance companies completely dictate the narrative on health care in this country. Like you mentioned earlier the fact that they had to be cajoled into waiving fees is ludicrous. Not everyone is going to agree, thats why there has to be give and take, compromise, but our elected officials refused to do that and we end up here. Unprepared, bickering, and playing the blame game. Simply pathetic. We should be embarrassed, the whole lot of us.

I couldn't agree with you more. This is not the time for playing politics. This is way more important than that. Both parties need to put the bullshit aside and do what needs done for the country.

[Craic]

This is generally on the mark, but I would add that a lot of what public officials do (here and all the time) is lowest common denominator stuff aimed at placating idiots.

If the CDC says to practice good sanitation habits, be aware if you are at risk, and use common sense to avoid unnecessary exposure, then that probably bears consideration.

If, on the other hand, Governor Gavin Newsom says we must avoid public gatherings above the magic number of 250 (except of course at Indian casinos and Disneyland for some reason), or that we must shut down all the schools for three weeks ... well guess how much Gavin Newsom's judgment means to me. I'd probably do just as well listening to a barking dog. Anyway, THAT kind of judgment has just gotten way out of hand and has little to do with actual medical recommendations.

Well, the problem there is in bold.

[silver & black]

Is there anybody willing to retract their statement that this whole situation was over hyped and that we’re all overreacting?

Well.... not really. Is it very important to heed the CDC's advice? YES! Should we be fixated on the "sky is falling" narrative? NO! This is serious... no doubt. But we should be calm and focused... not panicked.

[AtlantaDan]

Our medical professionals are second to none.

Certainly the best paid - not certain if the quality of care and return on that investment is equally superior to that provided in western Europe, Canada and Japan



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#77b93048575d

[silver & black]

Certainly the best paid - not certain if the quality of care and return on that investment is equally superior to that provided in western Europe, Canada and Japan



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#77b93048575d

Well, as they say... opinions vary.

I'm sure there are great minds all over the world. But I'll take my chances with the what the good old USA has to offer..

[steelreserve]

Certainly the best paid - not certain if the quality of care and return on that investment is equally superior to that provided in western Europe, Canada and Japan



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmc.../#77b93048575d

In Italy, they literally instructed hospitals to stop treating the elderly in intensive care units. Socialized medicine leads to rationing, there is no avoiding it.

The problem in the United States is exactly the opposite. It is too expensive because it is not a free market - it is a controlled market with practices that mirror a monopoly. There is plenty of quality and quantity, but the price is whatever they want because they have eliminated competitive price pressure. Similar thing going on with cable and internet.

In any event, who pays for it being a completely separate issue, under a socialized system the general availability of medical treatment is almost always going to be worse.

[vasteeler]

Is there anybody willing to retract their statement that this whole situation was overhyped and that we’re all overreacting?

Nope!

[tom444]

"This is the coronavirus math that has experts so worried: Running out of ventilators, hospital beds

For weeks now, America’s leaders and its public have been obsessed with one set of numbers: How many people have died? How many confirmed cases? And in what states?

But to understand why experts are so alarmed and what may be coming next, the public needs to start paying attention to a whole other set of numbers: How many ventilators do we have in this country? How many hospital beds? How many doctors and nurses? And most importantly, how many sick people can they all treat at the same time?

Consider the ventilators

For those severely ill with a respiratory disease such as covid-19, ventilators are a matter of life or death because they allow patients to breathe when they cannot on their own.

In a report last month, the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins estimated the United States has a total of 160,000 ventilators available for patient care (with at least an additional 8,900 in the national stockpile).

A planning study run by the federal government in 2005 estimated that if the United States were struck with a moderate pandemic like the 1957 influenza, the country would need more than 64,000 ventilators. If we were struck with a severe pandemic like the 1918 Spanish flu, we would need more than 740,000 ventilators — many times more than are available.

Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked within the newsletter are free to access.

The math on hospital beds isn’t any better

Hospitals in Wuhan, China, were overwhelmed by the novel coronavirus, and patients were treated in stadiums like this one that were converted into makeshift hospitals. (China Daily/Reuters)
The United States has roughly 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people. South Korea, which has seen success mitigating its large outbreak, has more than 12 hospital beds per 1,000 people. China, where hospitals in Hubei were quickly overrun, has 4.3 beds per 1,000 people. Italy, a developed country with a reasonably decent health system, has seen its hospitals overwhelmed and has 3.2 beds per 1,000 people.

The United States has an estimated 924,100 hospital beds, according to a 2018 American Hospital Association survey, but many are already occupied by patients at any one time. And the United States has 46,800 to 64,000 medical intensive-care unit (ICU) beds, according to the AHA. (There are an additional 51,000 ICU beds specialized for cardiology, pediatrics, neonatal, burn patients and others.)

A moderate pandemic would mean 1 million people needing hospitalization and 200,000 needing intensive care, according to a Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security report last month. A severe pandemic would mean 9.6 million hospitalizations and 2.9 million people needing intensive care.

Now, factor in how stretched-thin U.S. hospitals already are during a normal, coronavirus-free week handling usual illnesses: patients with cancer and chronic diseases, those walking in with blunt-force trauma, suicide attempts and assaults. It’s easy to see why experts are warning that if the pandemic spreads too widely, clinicians could be forced to ration care and choose which patients to save."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...worried-about/

[Mojouw]

Italy is husbanding medical resources not because they have a socialized system but because of the equivalent of mass casualty triage scenario.

Italy has more hospital beds per person than the United States does.

This is the kind of nonsense that fuels the panic.

[tom444]

Italy is husbanding medical resources not because they have a socialized system but because of the equivalent of mass casualty triage scenario.

Italy has more hospital beds per person than the United States does.

Exactly right on both counts.

[steelreserve]

Italy is husbanding medical resources not because they have a socialized system but because of the equivalent of mass casualty triage scenario.

Italy has more hospital beds per person than the United States does.

This is the kind of nonsense that fuels the panic.

Italy has 6,000 people sick in the whole country. They are not in a crisis that would overwhelm a healthcare system leading to a mass casualty triage system. That is the kind of nonsense that fuels the panic.

[tom444]

Two days ago:

The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors

There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care.

Yascha MounkMarch 11, 2020

Contributing writer at The Atlantic



Enjoy unlimited access to The Atlantic for less than $1 per week.
Sign in


Claudio Furlan / LaPresse / APTwo weeks ago, Italy had 322 confirmed cases of the coronavirus. At that point, doctors in the country’s hospitals could lavish significant attention on each stricken patient.
One week ago, Italy had 2,502 cases of the virus, which causes the disease known as COVID-19. At that point, doctors in the country’s hospitals could still perform the most lifesaving functions by artificially ventilating patients who experienced acute breathing difficulties.
Elise A. Mitchell: The shortages may be worse than the disease
Today, Italy has 10,149 cases of the coronavirus. There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care. Doctors and nurses are unable to tend to everybody. They lack machines to ventilate all those gasping for air.
Now the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI) has published guidelines for the criteria that doctors and nurses should follow as these already extraordinary circumstances worsen. The document begins by likening the moral choices Italian doctors may face to the forms of wartime triage that are required in the field of “catastrophe medicine.” Instead of providing intensive care to all patients who need it, the authors suggest, it may become necessary to follow “the most widely shared criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...al-bed/607807/

[steelreserve]

Two days ago:




https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...al-bed/607807/

Sounds like their health care system kind of sucks, then. If 10,000 people are sick in a country of 60 million, many of whom I assume don't require hospitalization at all ... and that is the result? Well, that sounds like they were pretty ill-prepared to me. That last paragraph you bolded is literally death panels.

edit: oh yeah, and the article actually says they're not doing that. Just that things are "increasing the likelihood" of it.

It's the author's opinion.

In The Atlantic.

Boy, I'm sorry I responded to that post.

[tom444]

Two days ago.

"
'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine

11 March 2020 at 6:40pm

I'm just back from Italy and "enjoying" my first day of self-isolation.
Getting a real picture of how bad the situation is, especially in Lombardy and the north, has been really difficult for TV news because movement is so restricted, access to the overwhelmed hospitals impossible and the danger of infection so great.

But it's really important people understand just how bad things are, not least because it is where we may be headed.
So I will continue to write here about conversations, emails or recordings with those who are still under quarantine in Italy.
Some will be Britons who have stayed on, some Italians, some doctors. I start with a voice recording of two Milanese doctors speaking on WhatsApp about the situation at their hospitals.

• Audio of the two Milanese doctors speaking about the coronavirus situation at their hospitals

The first identifies herself as Martina, but I believe she is Martina Crivellari, an intensive care cardiac anaesthesiologist at the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan.

She said: "There are a lot of young people in our Intensive Care Units (ICUs) - our youngest is a 38-year-old who had had no comorbidities (underlying health problems).

"A lot of patients need help with breathing but there are not enough ventilators.

"They've told us that starting from now we'll have to choose who to intubate - priority will go to the young or those without comorbidities.
"At Niguarda, the other big hospital in Milan, they are not intubating anyone over 60, which is really, really young."


https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/italy-doctors-coronavirus-covid-19-quarantine-milan-health/

[Mojouw]

Italy has 6,000 people sick in the whole country. They are not in a crisis that would overwhelm a healthcare system leading to a mass casualty triage system. That is the kind of nonsense that fuels the panic.

Ok. Cool. So we are back to your usual response when confronted with facts that do not fit your glib generalizations. Just deny their reality.

I'm not going to Google for you, but there are innumerable articles documenting that the difficult decisions taking place in Italy are not because of rationed social medicine but too many patients at one time for the system to handle. A system with twice as many hospital beds per person than our system.

Too me, that's an eye opening and troubling bit of facts.

But, you can react however you want. Just don't expect many to buy in about rationed care.

And if you don't care for the Atlantic, you can find where Steve Bannon's been taljing about this as well.

[steelreserve]

Ok. Cool. So we are back to your usual response when confronted with facts that do not fit your glib generalizations. Just deny their reality.

I'm not going to Google for you, but there are innumerable articles documenting that the difficult decisions taking place in Italy are not because of rationed social medicine but too many patients at one time for the system to handle. A system with twice as many hospital beds per person than our system.

Too me, that's an eye opening and troubling bit of facts.

But, you can react however you want. Just don't expect many to buy in about rationed care.

And if you don't care for the Atlantic, you can find where Steve Bannon's been taljing about this as well.

Fine, you've convinced me. Socialized medicine is great. Why didn't I think of that before. Shame on me for badmouthing it.

[Mojouw]

Fine, you've convinced me. Socialized medicine is great. Why didn't I think of that before. Shame on me for badmouthing it.

That's the point - this isn't about the merits of socialized medicine. It may be awesome. It may suck donkey ass. Doesn't matter right now.

This is about separating useful information from panic inducing nonsense.

Reducing the health crisis in Italy to a snide jab at socialized medicine just misses the point and undermines your entire position by demonstrating that you are far less informed than you believe yourself to be.

[steelreserve]

That's the point - this isn't about the merits of socialized medicine. It may be awesome. It may suck donkey ass. Doesn't matter right now.

This is about separating useful information from panic inducing nonsense.

Reducing the health crisis in Italy to a snide jab at socialized medicine just misses the point and undermines your entire position by demonstrating that you are far less informed than you believe yourself to be.

It's all right, I'm ok with not being an expert on the minutiae of European socialized medicine, and 0.015% is not much different from 0.01%, so it's still fine

[Mojouw]

It's all right, I'm ok with not being an expert on the minutiae of European socialized medicine, and 0.015% is not much different from 0.01%, so it's still fine

Another vain attempt to salvage your preconceived view in light of contradictory data.

Congratulations on being the bottom of the barrel edge lord fake intelligent internet warrior.

[Craic]

Here's someone from the CDC who is a infectious disease expert. Their conservative estimates are that it will be 10 to 15 times as bad as the seasonal flu. 48 million hospitalizations, 96 million cases. Over 480 deaths in the next 3-7 months.