Will the Coming Season be Different Because of COVID-19?

[steelreserve]

A bit more: https://www.google.com/amp/s/api.nat...er-than-a-year

Basically we already have vaccines for all the nasty things you can just dink around with weakened bits of the bug and come out with a vaccine.

For others, that approach just doesn't do anything effective.

After that, I'd have to read up on it all some more. Currently don't know enough to lay out details.

The way I read that article was: They stopped making whole-virus vaccines (inject people with killed virus), which generates antibodies by exposing your body to the original antigen of the virus.

And instead, for the past 30 years, they've been trying to reverse engineer the viruses' antigens, and come up with drugs that convince the body to produce copies of those antigens synthetically, which in turn stimulates antibody production. Not because the old way doesn't work anymore, but they just don't try it because it's "old school" and this way is cheaper. Except that they haven't gotten one right with the new way basically ever.

I pray that there is some information that I am still missing or not understanding, because I really don't want to believe that all of our highly-trained scientists are that retarded.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mia...242203256.html

The science says that the vaccine process is far more complex than how we all usually talk about it.

A vaccine may simply never be found.

Thanks for this. I would have thought that was obvious, or else we would have a vaccine for HIV, Ebola, Lyme disease, etc. Also a cure for cancer would also be high school level stuff.

The human body is far more complex and difficult to fix than a '73 Ford that is hard to start. Cant just put a pencil in the carb linkage to hold the choke open. This is going to take time, but at least it sounds encouraging that sites in England, Germany, North America sound positive of having a vaccine in the next several months.

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mia...242203256.html

The science says that the vaccine process is far more complex than how we all usually talk about it.

A vaccine may simply never be found.

Thanks for this. I would have thought that was obvious, or else we would have a vaccine for HIV, Ebola, Lyme disease, etc. Also a cure for cancer would also be high school level stuff.

The human body is far more complex and difficult to fix than a '73 Ford that is hard to start. Cant just put a pencil in the carb linkage to hold the choke open. This is going to take time, but at least it sounds encouraging that sites in England, Germany, North America sound positive of having a vaccine in the next several months.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I guess I can say this now....I have had the virus. It wasn’t great, but didn’t kill me. The weirdest part....I had no sense of taste or smell for three weeks. I told my wife, I think I would rather be deaf than go the rest of my life not being able to taste or smell. If you want anymore info. Let me know. This thing was in this country well before the “experts” thought. I went through it back in mid February.

Glad that you made it thru the infection. Anybody else around you have it as well, or were you able to isolate? How is your energy level? Feel like getting back to work yet?

[Mojouw]

The way I read that article was: They stopped making whole-virus vaccines (inject people with killed virus), which generates antibodies by exposing your body to the original antigen of the virus.

And instead, for the past 30 years, they've been trying to reverse engineer the viruses' antigens, and come up with drugs that convince the body to produce copies of those antigens synthetically, which in turn stimulates antibody production. Not because the old way doesn't work anymore, but they just don't try it because it's "old school" and this way is cheaper. Except that they haven't gotten one right with the new way basically ever.

I pray that there is some information that I am still missing or not understanding, because I really don't want to believe that all of our highly-trained scientists are that retarded.

Again, you can choose to see conspiracies at every turn or spend a few hours on Google or PubMed and find the answer.

It is just really darn difficult to program the immune system to have the right response.

[Hawkman]

Glad that you made it thru the infection. Anybody else around you have it as well, or were you able to isolate? How is your energy level? Feel like getting back to work yet?

I got it when things were going on. I was going to a lot of college basketball games. I was busy doing a lot of corporate head shots. I was also, in the middle of a drug study with VCU.....which is how I found out. FYI....if you have blood work done, and your O2 levels are unusually low and your iron levels are unusually high....at the same time, chances are, you have it. It doesn’t mean you will ever “ get sick”, but this is one of the major indicators. I was diagnosed when I was in the middle of it, so my wife, my kids, and my 80+ year old parents had all been exposed. My son was the only one who showed any symptoms. I’ve got shitty lungs, so I figure that’s why I got hit. Four days of 101 fever, really bad body aches, and a “not of this earth cough”...( I thought my daughter’s croup sounded bad). Anyway, not a pleasant experience, but I’ve had worse. It’s out there, but I’m not scared of it and neither is my family.

Didn’t answer a couple of your questions, energy level took a long time to come back. I felt exhausted from 1:00 on for several weeks. I want to get back to work...I’m self employed, and unfortunately right now, my business is shut down.
No ill effects two + months later.

[Mojouw]

I got it when things were going on. I was going to a lot of college basketball games. I was busy doing a lot of corporate head shots. I was also, in the middle of a drug study with VCU.....which is how I found out. FYI....if you have blood work done, and your O2 levels are unusually low and your iron levels are unusually high....at the same time, chances are, you have it. It doesn’t mean you will ever “ get sick”, but this is one of the major indicators. I was diagnosed when I was in the middle of it, so my wife, my kids, and my 80+ year old parents had all been exposed. My son was the only one who showed any symptoms. I’ve got shitty lungs, so I figure that’s why I got hit. Four days of 101 fever, really bad body aches, and a “not of this earth cough”...( I thought my daughter’s croup sounded bad). Anyway, not a pleasant experience, but I’ve had worse. It’s out there, but I’m not scared of it and neither is my family.

Didn’t answer a couple of your questions, energy level took a long time to come back. I felt exhausted from 1:00 on for several weeks. I want to get back to work...I’m self employed, and unfortunately right now, my business is shut down.
No ill effects two + months later.

Glad to hear you and yours are medically well.

[tom444]

Opinion: New York Times
America’s True Covid Toll Already Exceeds 100,000


The reported numbers leave out thousands of deaths clearly resulting from the pandemic.

By Nicholas Kristof
Opinion Columnist




A body being taken through a courtyard to a refrigerator truck at Kingsbrook Jewish Medical Center in Brooklyn last month.Credit...Stephanie Keith for The New York Times



Many supporters of President Trump believe that the figures for coronavirus fatalities are inflated, and Trump himself shared a tweet doubting the accuracy of some virus figures.

He’s right that the death toll seems off — but not in the direction he would suggest. We’ve crunched the numbers, state by state, and it appears that somewhere around 100,000 to 110,000 Americans have already died as a result of the pandemic, rather than the 83,000 whose deaths have been attributed to the disease, Covid-19.

That’s my estimate reached with the help of a Harvard statistician, Rafael Irizarry, based on a comparison of death rates this spring with those in previous years. Some states have been largely unaffected — death rates in some even appear to have dropped, perhaps because of less driving and fewer car accidents — but others have seen huge surges in deaths.

Over all, in a bit more than two months, the United States lost more Americans to the coronavirus than died over seven decades in the Korean, Vietnam, Persian Gulf, Afghanistan and Iraq Wars.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/o...gtype=Homepage

I never like to see comparisons to the death tolls in wars. For example, the majority of U.S. casualties in Vietnam were either Army 11B10s/Infantry, or Marine 0311s/infantry. At the hight of that war there were only aprox. 50,000 U.S troops in the bush actually fighting the war. The deaths from COVID 19 on the other hand are out of the total US population of 328 million. If you want to compare numbers compare the COVID numbers to something along the same lines.

[EzraTank]

[teegre]

I think the mask thing is a microcosm of the entire pandemic.

First, it was stated that masks did nothing. Then, it was mandatory that masks be worn. Just two days ago, Fauci said that masks aren’t doing any good. Which is it???

People say they back the science/back Fauci, but when he says something that goes against what they want to hear, suddenly he’s an idiot.

Are the masks ineffective? No one knows. The verdict is unclear... but, people have solidified stances on the topic.

Some refuse to wear a mask, because it infringes on their freedoms. “No shirt, no shoes, no service” has been in effect for decades. Carrying guns into a Subway is your right, but so is wearing a dildo hat at a Pride parade. Both look ridiculous... and do nothing to convince anyone that your stance is the correct one (it’s probably the opposite).

I saw a guy on Twitter ranting & raving about kids not wearing masks in his neighborhood, because his wife has a lung condition. But then, two tweets later, he is saying how he shouldn’t have to wear a mask.

From what I understand about the masks (which could be wrong... which is my point), it’s not necessarily the mask itself that is effective/ineffective, but rather the user. People touch their own spit-laden mask, then touch the box of Chocolate Frosted Sugar Bombs... and put the box back on the shelf. Voila!!! They did not breathe on the cereal, but they certainly transferred their spittle (and germs) to the box. The mask (ironically) did more harm than good.

Now, add in the lifespan of the germ on a surface (the lifespan is debatable). Add in the amount of germ that can actually be transferred from the box onto another person’s hand (which, again, is debatable). Lastly, add what else the second patron touches after touching the box and/or how much is transferred from their fingers to other items. In other words, how effective has the mask actually been? No. One. Knows.

But, people will die on a hill for their stance about it.

BTW, the general manager and the store manager blame each other, throw each other under the bus, and make sophomoric posts on social media... while their employees are repeatedly touching their masks, facemasks which the employees have worn (unwashed) for several shifts in a row. SMFH Oh, and a Huntington Beach trust fund kid is out front screaming about how he can only get his Porsche washed for a third time that week (instead of the normal four times), because his “Freedoms have been taken away” (or whatever his daddy told him to write on a sign).

[tom444]

r

I think the mask thing is a microcosm of the entire pandemic.

First, it was stated that masks did nothing. Then, it was mandatory that masks be worn. Just two days ago, Fauci said that masks aren’t doing any good. Which is it???

People say they back the science/back Fauci, but when he says something that goes against what they want to hear, suddenly he’s an idiot.

Are the masks ineffective? No one knows. The verdict is unclear... but, people have solidified stances on the topic.

Some refuse to wear a mask, because it infringes on their freedoms. “No shirt, no shoes, no service” has been in effect for decades. Carrying guns into a Subway is your right, but so is wearing a dildo hat at a Pride parade. Both look ridiculous... and do nothing to convince anyone that your stance is the correct one (it’s probably the opposite).

I saw a guy on Twitter ranting & raving about kids not wearing masks in his neighborhood, because his wife has a lung condition. But then, two tweets later, he is saying how he shouldn’t have to wear a mask.

From what I understand about the masks (which could be wrong... which is my point), it’s not necessarily the mask itself that is effective/ineffective, but rather the user. People touch their own spit-laden mask, then touch the box of Chocolate Frosted Sugar Bombs... and put the box back on the shelf. Voila!!! They did not breathe on the cereal, but they certainly transferred their spittle (and germs) to the box. The mask (ironically) did more harm than good.

Now, add in the lifespan of the germ on a surface (the lifespan is debatable). Add in the amount of germ that can actually be transferred from the box onto another person’s hand (which, again, is debatable). Lastly, add what else the second patron touches after touching the box and/or how much is transferred from their fingers to other items. In other words, how effective has the mask actually been? No. One. Knows.

But, people will die on a hill for their stance about it.

BTW, the general manager and the store manager blame each other, throw each other under the bus, and make sophomoric posts on social media... while their employees are repeatedly touching their masks, facemasks which the employees have worn (unwashed) for several shifts in a row. SMFH Oh, and a Huntington Beach trust fund kid is out front screaming about how he can only get his Porsche washed for a third time that week (instead of the normal four times), because his “Freedoms have been taken away” (or whatever his daddy told him to write on a sign).

Well written.

For me it depends on the local rules. The grocery store I shop at won't let you in without a mask on. The Governor of our state has rules in place about wearing a mask under certain conditions. I think it's stupid to flout the rules particularly when you live in a state that has some of the highest COVID 19 numbers. The downside is the possibility of infecting yourself when you remove the mask. That's easily avoided though my washing your hands first.

[silver & black]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.mia...242203256.html

The science says that the vaccine process is far more complex than how we all usually talk about it.

A vaccine may simply never be found.

I'm on a Bourbon forum with a couple of scientists who are also members there. One is a clinical virologist/pathologist. He said that vaccines sound easy to produce, but in reality are extremely hard to do. That is why there are so many safeguards, so many stages and years of testing. He said that the testing is extremely rigorous and thorough because these vaccines can kill faster than the virus they are trying to prevent if they don't get it right. He said he will be amazed if we have a vaccine in 18 months. That would be world record speed as far as vaccines go. He said it is more likely to be 3 - 5 years before we see one.

[EzraTank]

Bottom line what those two doctors from California said is 100% correct. My wife is a Veterinarian so she understands how viruses work in animals and people. By keeping us indoors it hurts our immune systems, we are MEANT to be exposed to pathogens not hidden from them. Staying indoors also deprives us of something else that our immune system needs ... Vitamin D. There are numerous studies out there that show natural Vitamin D which is created by sunlight hitting our skin is vital in building and maintaining our immune systems. Some have even postulated this is why the African American community is getting hit harder by COVID19 because their Vitamin D production requires even more sunlight exposure because of their skin melanin levels.

The crazy thing is until a vaccine is developed (and at this time there are NO vaccines for other RNA coronaviruses like SARS and MERS) our only alternatives are to:

A) Hide indoors and watch our way of life end.
B) Face the disease and build herd immunity.

I'll choose B even if it means risking exposure.

I look at this like the Chicken Pox of 30 years ago before there was a vaccine for that. When I was a kid growing up in the 70's my parents actually wanted me to be exposed to Chicken Pox when it hit our neighborhood because they knew that a week of being sick meant a life of immunity and that catching Chicken Pox later in life would mean the disease would be even harder to fight. Yes people still do catch the Shingles later in life which is from the same virus but usually it's people whose immune systems are weakening. Most people do not catch the Shingles.

The only issue with this is that doing the Chicken Pox thing now means that those who at higher risk get the short end of the stick, but it's really all we can do. We just have to protect those people and let the younger, healthier people build immunity. Then once enough people have antibodies built we continue with life and just monitor future outbreaks. Remember the survival rate of this disease for people under 70 who are healthy is 95% or higher. Once a quick test is developed I think they are going to find out a lot of people already HAD this disease and are immune.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I'm on a Bourbon forum with a couple of scientists who are also members there. One is a clinical virologist/pathologist. He said that vaccines sound easy to produce, but in reality are extremely hard to do. That is why there are so many safeguards, so many stages and years of testing. He said that the testing is extremely rigorous and thorough because these vaccines can kill faster than the virus they are trying to prevent if they don't get it right. He said he will be amazed if we have a vaccine in 18 months. That would be world record speed as far as vaccines go. He said it is more likely to be 3 - 5 years before we see one.

OK, so Bourbon and Mezcal aficionado? I'm pretty much a fan of easy drinking Buffalo Trace, Woodford, Knob Creek. I tried Bullet and its OK, but was told by a buddy from Kentucky that its not authentic. I think a 1792 or Blanton's is next on my list to try sometime, but bang for the buck, I'm all in on Buffalo Trace.

As far as 3-5 years for a vaccine, I think I will bet the under. The link below is info on a group from Oxford University in the UK who is starting a trial on a vaccine they developed, which they state the timeline of this fall is very ambitious, but it doesn't sound like its 4 years away.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ev...rus-2020-05-14

[Mojouw]

Maybe there is a vaccine. Maybe there never is. Maybe it doesn't cost $500 a dose. Almost certainly it will. I suspect we are not going to have any Dr. Salk's out there refusing to patent a license to print money - especially if an R&D effort backed by the private sector pulls the lucky card.

To me, this whole thing has revealed massive chinks in the armor that need addressed for the next pandemic.

The CDC has been defunded and devalued by successive administrations (not placing the blame anywhere) to the point that it is no longer a world class institution and perhaps not an effective one. The fact is that the CDC mucked up the testing roll-out multiple times by being bad at their jobs. There was a time, in my lifetime, that the entire world looked to the CDC for guidance on issues just like the one we are experiencing; now, they are a shell of themselves. That should not be allowed to continue.

FEMA has been non-existent during this whole thing. In fact, FEMA has largely been a useless appendage ever since Homeland sucked it in. That entire structure needs to be rethought. The reality that the government had no "playbook" or "SOP" for this is laughable. Even a shitty plan is better than no plan and to think that the US wouldn't be or won't be again struck by a pandemic is ludicrously out of touch with reality. Honestly, I just assumed this was the kind of thing that one of those "deep state" dudes I keep hearing about had a plan for tucked in a drawer because his office's job was to plan for this and that. Further, I keep hearing about hospital capacity. And I am to believe that the US Military can do world class surgery in a war zone, but can't set up extra hospitals in major US cities? All they can send is a hospital ship they ended up not being able to use? That seems odd. And if the military can not currently do that...then the National Guard or FEMA needs to consider how we (meaning the country as a whole) can stand up infectious disease field hospitals quickly.

Hospital capacity is another thing. We run these things for profit (for the most part) so there is no extra slack built into the system. There is no surge capacity. This time it was ventilators. Next time it will be something else. Perhaps we need to rethink how we organize and fund the healthcare sector as whole so that there is some "extra" there when we need it? For those that don't like government; I argue that mandating for profit entities do something that is in the emergency public good but hurts there profit margin is one of the specific things that government can do that nothing else can do.

Education. Education. Education. I will try to keep this short because this is already a long post that no one will want to read! But I have seen so much stuff during this that tons of people really really really believe to be true about basic biology, medicine, math, and science to be true that just isn't. To be fair, some of it is stuff we hear all the time and don't realize is wrong until we take subject matter specific courses or something. But overall, this has revealed that the "average" person is appalling unprepared to understand the basics of this or similar situations. No wonder "conspiracy theories" and "fake news" can go viral so quickly. America is a country that gutted its education system and told people that "book learning" isn't that important. As a result, we are staggeringly stupid as a country. Like believing that 5G wireless can produce viruses dumb.

[Mojouw]

Bottom line what those two doctors from California said is 100% correct. My wife is a Veterinarian so she understands how viruses work in animals and people. By keeping us indoors it hurts our immune systems, we are MEANT to be exposed to pathogens not hidden from them. Staying indoors also deprives us of something else that our immune system needs ... Vitamin D. There are numerous studies out there that show natural Vitamin D which is created by sunlight hitting our skin is vital in building and maintaining our immune systems. Some have even postulated this is why the African American community is getting hit harder by COVID19 because their Vitamin D production requires even more sunlight exposure because of their skin melanin levels.

The crazy thing is until a vaccine is developed (and at this time there are NO vaccines for other RNA coronaviruses like SARS and MERS) our only alternatives are to:

A) Hide indoors and watch our way of life end.
B) Face the disease and build herd immunity.

I'll choose B even if it means risking exposure.

I look at this like the Chicken Pox of 30 years ago before there was a vaccine for that. When I was a kid growing up in the 70's my parents actually wanted me to be exposed to Chicken Pox when it hit our neighborhood because they knew that a week of being sick meant a life of immunity and that catching Chicken Pox later in life would mean the disease would be even harder to fight. Yes people still do catch the Shingles later in life which is from the same virus but usually it's people whose immune systems are weakening. Most people do not catch the Shingles.

The only issue with this is that doing the Chicken Pox thing now means that those who at higher risk get the short end of the stick, but it's really all we can do. We just have to protect those people and let the younger, healthier people build immunity. Then once enough people have antibodies built we continue with life and just monitor future outbreaks. Remember the survival rate of this disease for people under 70 who are healthy is 95% or higher. Once a quick test is developed I think they are going to find out a lot of people already HAD this disease and are immune.

That may be a bit of dodgy equivalency. This study (https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/182/2/383/2190935) is one of the few that looked at it and pre vaccine, over a 25 year period, less than 2262 people died of it. So less than 100 per year. There have been 10 x's (or more) more deaths per day, each day, for like a month from this in the US.

For the Vitamin D thing, I gotta call that into question. You only need like 10-15 minutes at a time a few times a week to get what you need. Plus, ever since they got tired of poor people getting rickets in the early 1900's; they snuck Vitamin D into enough of the food supply that you would have to try to be deficient at this point.

[EzraTank]

That may be a bit of dodgy equivalency. This study (https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/182/2/383/2190935) is one of the few that looked at it and pre vaccine, over a 25 year period, less than 2262 people died of it. So less than 100 per year. There have been 10 x's (or more) more deaths per day, each day, for like a month from this in the US.

For the Vitamin D thing, I gotta call that into question. You only need like 10-15 minutes at a time a few times a week to get what you need. Plus, ever since they got tired of poor people getting rickets in the early 1900's; they snuck Vitamin D into enough of the food supply that you would have to try to be deficient at this point.

Not to go too far down the road of death rates for COVID19 but there is a lot of evidence that the death rate numbers are being inflated. There are plenty of videos on YouTube (most get pulled) by doctors laying claim to how they are being pressured into listing deaths as COVID19 when there are other circumstances (such as COPD, pneumonia, etc). Like I said in my original post I don't think we are going to know the real numbers on this disease for years until all the information can be properly vetted. I also said that if we did use the Varicella (Chicken Pox) approach that it would suck for those that are at high risk from this virus. But what is the alternative? At some point we are going to have to face this disease and hope that we can keep it to local outbreaks.

As far as the Vitamin D stuff I did say they were studies. Vitamin D intakes are only 15 minutes on a given sunny day but those times vary depending on the time of the year. In the winter the sun is a lot lower in the sky and it requires more time than 15 minutes, plus people are usually wearing more clothes/coats etc ... again these are only studies, not me claiming they are Gospel.

The CDC stuff on Chicken Pox is interesting. I hope one day the same thing for these coronaviruses exist. But Varicella is a DNA virus and the coronaviruses are all RNA viruses. RNA vaccines are a new thing that researchers are just beginning to understand. I think because of the way RNA viruses mutate they are not 100% effective (which is why you have to constantly get a FLU shot every year).

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/varicella/index.html

[st33lersguy]

Florida and Georgia opened their states and numbers are on the decline.

We've stretched this out long enough. We need to open up or it will only cause more problems. The curve has flattened, open up the economy

[JnK]

Florida and Georgia opened their states and numbers are on the decline.

We've stretched this out long enough. We need to open up or it will only cause more problems. The curve has flattened, open up the economy

Missouri is pretty much opening back up too.

[Mojouw]

So open question, not an attempt to troll or bait anyone.

What would have to happen for anyone to walk away from "reopening"? Is there a level of a "rebound" of this thing that would drive you back into your home?

Related, when you say "reopen" -- are you planning on going to bars, restaurants, movie theaters, booking air travel, and/or staying in hotels/motels?

- - - Updated - - -

OK, so Bourbon and Mezcal aficionado? I'm pretty much a fan of easy drinking Buffalo Trace, Woodford, Knob Creek. I tried Bullet and its OK, but was told by a buddy from Kentucky that its not authentic. I think a 1792 or Blanton's is next on my list to try sometime, but bang for the buck, I'm all in on Buffalo Trace.

As far as 3-5 years for a vaccine, I think I will bet the under. The link below is info on a group from Oxford University in the UK who is starting a trial on a vaccine they developed, which they state the timeline of this fall is very ambitious, but it doesn't sound like its 4 years away.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ev...rus-2020-05-14

I have never had anyone not enjoy Blantons. Plus you get a litte horsey on the bottle topper. Basil Hayden's is also nectar of the gods.

I think I need to make a bourbon run...

[steelreserve]

I look at this like the Chicken Pox of 30 years ago before there was a vaccine for that. When I was a kid growing up in the 70's my parents actually wanted me to be exposed to Chicken Pox when it hit our neighborhood because they knew that a week of being sick meant a life of immunity and that catching Chicken Pox later in life would mean the disease would be even harder to fight. Yes people still do catch the Shingles later in life which is from the same virus but usually it's people whose immune systems are weakening. Most people do not catch the Shingles.

The only issue with this is that doing the Chicken Pox thing now means that those who at higher risk get the short end of the stick, but it's really all we can do. We just have to protect those people and let the younger, healthier people build immunity. Then once enough people have antibodies built we continue with life and just monitor future outbreaks. Remember the survival rate of this disease for people under 70 who are healthy is 95% or higher. Once a quick test is developed I think they are going to find out a lot of people already HAD this disease and are immune.

One would think the intelligent thing to do would be to expose as many healthy people under 50 to the disease as possible. Almost nobody dies, and then it is safe for all of those people to be in contact with the elderly, the at-risk, and people with active cases of the virus. A month later, it is relatively safe for the elderly and the at-risk to go about life mostly normally, because there are few people who can spread it. Maybe you prioritize putting people who have already had it in places where they are closely dealing with those people, because there's nowhere for it to jump to.

Keep in mind, if the virus were a pill and the risk of death were a side effect, it would be considered A-OK to prescribe.

So open question, not an attempt to troll or bait anyone.

What would have to happen for anyone to walk away from "reopening"? Is there a level of a "rebound" of this thing that would drive you back into your home?

Related, when you say "reopen" -- are you planning on going to bars, restaurants, movie theaters, booking air travel, and/or staying in hotels/motels?

I don't think there is any walking away from an opening. They try to re-impose a lockdown, people just won't do it again, and if they push it too hard, some governor's likely to be getting dragged through the streets. Maybe California, Oregon and Washington will shut up and fall in line.

As for a government-run medical system being better prepared, you have got to be kidding. You have spent pages and pages elaborating profusely on how there has been a failure of public leadership at all levels, our government is the worst-prepared in the world, and that this crisis is a shining example of how everything goes to hell when selfish politicians of all stripes are in charge of making decisions for you.

Those are the same people you would be putting in charge of health care nationwide. Please, tell me more about why you would expect a result that is the direct opposite of everything that you have been vigorously proclaiming.

[EzraTank]

When people say re-open, I don't think they mean it's just going to revert back to what it was. Eventually it will but not right now. Like I said before, the mortality rate for this virus (even with incomplete numbers) are very low for people under 60 that are generally healthy. Sure there are cases of younger healthier people dying from it but most of the time you will probably find that they did have unknown underlying conditions. I don't want to sound crass, but being extremely obese (a huge problem in the US) is an underlying condition.

The CDC's numbers actually confirm this. The survival rate for those under 60 is still in the 95+% range. For instance looking at the data on the CDC's website (they cover from 2/1/2020 to today) more people have died of just pneumonia than COVID19. But the media isn't making a huge deal out of that fact. And like I said before once they start antibody testing I think the mortality rates are going to go down because a lot of younger people caught this thing, thought it was the flu, recovered and went on about life before the lock down started. There is evidence that it was in the US as early as January if not before.

Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm



For me to say we need to go back into a lockdown would probably take a spike like we had a month ago. But remember a month ago we didn't know how to treat this disease. Despite all the political nonsense there are drugs out there like Hydroxychloroquine that are helping some (depending on what stage they get it). I think doctors are also realizing that ventilators are actually worse for the disease. Again I'm not a doctor just a realist that knows we simply cannot hide forever in our homes while our way of life collapses around us.

Remember Italy has a Government run medial system and they were quickly overrun by this disease and not prepared. But NO ONE was. There is NO way I want our Government running healthcare, NONE, ABSOLUTELY NONE! Everything the Government touches turns to shit, costs a thousand times more than it should and in the end never delivers what it set out to do. Hopefully this was a wake up call to the medical communities of the world. Yes this virus sucked but imagine if the death rates were flipped? Humans would be gone.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

. Despite all the political nonsense there are drugs out there like Hydroxychloroquine that are helping some (depending on what stage they get it). I think doctors are also realizing that ventilators are actually worse for the disease.

Do you take Hydroxychloroquine? Go for it and let us know how well it works please.

How are ventilators worse for the disease? Please elaborate, because this is some great medical insight that I need to hear.

[Mojouw]

One would think the intelligent thing to do would be to expose as many healthy people under 50 to the disease as possible. Almost nobody dies, and then it is safe for all of those people to be in contact with the elderly, the at-risk, and people with active cases of the virus. A month later, it is relatively safe for the elderly and the at-risk to go about life mostly normally, because there are few people who can spread it. Maybe you prioritize putting people who have already had it in places where they are closely dealing with those people, because there's nowhere for it to jump to.

Keep in mind, if the virus were a pill and the risk of death were a side effect, it would be considered A-OK to prescribe.





I don't think there is any walking away from an opening. They try to re-impose a lockdown, people just won't do it again, and if they push it too hard, some governor's likely to be getting dragged through the streets. Maybe California, Oregon and Washington will shut up and fall in line.

As for a government-run medical system being better prepared, you have got to be kidding. You have spent pages and pages elaborating profusely on how there has been a failure of public leadership at all levels, our government is the worst-prepared in the world, and that this crisis is a shining example of how everything goes to hell when selfish politicians of all stripes are in charge of making decisions for you.

Those are the same people you would be putting in charge of health care nationwide. Please, tell me more about why you would expect a result that is the direct opposite of everything that you have been vigorously proclaiming.

Being unprepared does not mean that an organization is incapable of being prepared. I never called for totally government run healthcare either. All I mentioned is that there should be plans and as a society we might want to consider if we mandate that hospitals build in "slack" even if it isn't profitable. Of course we could all have to agree to bear that cost burden somehow. For decades, the CDC was one of the leading medical institutions in the entire world. Pretty easy to return it to that status; make it a priority. Fairly easy for government to prepare for a pandemic -- actually make it a priority and responsibility. Pick somewhere else -- they did it.

To be clear, I am not calling for a nationalization of the health-care system. I am simply saying that if we expect the "market" to push for profit entities to carry extra capacity for "in case shit" that is never going to happen. The only current "force" big enough to do that is government. Should it? Should it not? No idea. But one of the clear problems is that there is not enough "surge" capacity in health care infrastructure across the country. So how do we decide to deal with that? Regulation? Increased FEMA capacity? A domestic role for the military in times of medical crisis? I have no idea, but if we don't want to get caught with our pants down again, it is a serious national issue to consider.

Related to this is that can we rely on the "market" to solve everything? No idea. I certainly am not advocating for government run healthcare. BUT...we (meaning people) have known for some time that we have no vaccines for coronaviruses and we are seeing outbreaks every 5-10 years. But the "market" has determined that vaccines are too expensive to R&D; and the outbreaks are too small to be profitable -- so few places are really doing big push efforts on these types of vaccines. Do we need to consider taking public funds and filling that gap? Not making the government do it, but providing appropriate funding for R&D efforts on coronavirus vaccines or other potential pandemic panicers? I don't know the answer to any of this, but I would argue that it is a critical component of the "post game" analysis that everyone wants to move into. Certainly more important than the "blame game" that will now consume us all.

That is really what I am saying. Is what are the lessons for the NEXT time? What are the partnerships that can be developed to allow the private sector to do what it does well and the public sector to clear the way for that to happen? What are the planning and coordination/liaison roles that various agencies can plan on filling in future outbreaks? How can coordination and resources sharing be increased and leveraged into lessening the burden the average person has to bear the next time? Why does the CDC suck at this and what needs to happen so it doesn't suck at this?

[tom444]

The reality that the government had no "playbook" or "SOP" for this is laughable.

There was a "playbook":

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...council-149285

[tom444]

There was a "playbook":

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...council-149285

The Playbook:

https://assets.documentcloud.org/doc...c-Playbook.pdf

[EzraTank]

Do you take Hydroxychloroquine? Go for it and let us know how well it works please.

How are ventilators worse for the disease? Please elaborate, because this is some great medical insight that I need to hear.

Why would I take HXC if I'm not sick? But I'll tell you if I had this virus and it was suggested by my doctor I would.

And all I was saying is that people who are put on ventilators for this disease actually have shitty survival rate. Look it up, it's publicly available.

This is just one study:

https://www.physiciansweekly.com/mor...n-ventilators/

here's another source:

https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/




There's no reason to be hostile we're just having a discussion on this.

[Mojouw]

So everyone is against further lockdowns and wants things to reopne. That is good. But no one seems to offer a concrete version of what they are going to do.

Say tomorrow in your town - everything is reopened with whatever modifications or whatnot.

Are you eating in drinking around groups of people again? Are you sitting in a movie theater? Breathing recycled air on a cross country flight? Etc.

One of my various jobs (assuming it ever starts back up again) requires overnight travel, mostly by car but with hotel stays. One of the discussions we are having is are we still willing to stay in the cut-rate chains we usually use. You know, the kinds of places that all those TV shows "expose" with blacklights and other things that show how cursory the cleaning is.

Those kinds of things are where my head is at. Everyone is banging the table for "open" but with the idea that "things will be different" but I can't get anyone to really define what that is.

- - - Updated - - -

There was a "playbook":

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...council-149285

Ok. Not surprised at all. I kinda already knew that was the case. I have been bending over backwards to not specifically place this at the feet of Trump and Kushner and friends but to move it more towards "government" in general. My shady and likely useless attempt to shift these from "Trump good" or "Trump bad" to what is the role of government (regardless of administration) in this kind of thing.

I mean, when I say "failure of leadership" -- I'm pretty sure we all know where the buck stops. After all, Truman told us. But I do want to leave room for the possibility that no President would have responded well and not turn it into blame this specific person.

[EzraTank]

There was a "playbook":

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...council-149285

No offense but F politico. They are nothing but an arm of the Democratic party. If only Trump failed then how do you explain all the deaths worldwide. If we didn't follow a "playbook" then no one did. Remember on January 14th the WHO Tweeted this:



Did the WHO even bother to send independent doctors to verify this claim? Nope. They just believed the Chinese whose track record on human rights isn't exactly spot on.

The only people that failed are the WHO and the Chinese Government. They KNEW about this disease and lied to the world, those aren't accusations they are facts. Doctors in China who tried to warn the world disappeared and then China allowed millions to travel to and from China for their new years celebrations basically infecting the world.

And remember Trump put a ban on travel to/from China on January 31st but by then it was too late. Did Trump make mistakes with this, absolutely, but like I said above the WHOLE world did.

[tom444]

No offense but F politico.

No offense, really, but this has nothing to do with Politico.

[EzraTank]

No offense but this has nothing to do with Politico.

Well it was your source, but I see your point. And I stand by what I said. The WHO is the one that should be taking blame on this. It's in their charter that one of their missions is to fight pandemics. Based on their January 14th Tweet and response I'd say a LOT of the blame hangs on their necks along with the Communist Government of China. The same Communist Government that has re-education camps for Muslims in China, killed 70 million people under Mao and sent tanks to coral a guy with a briefcase in 1989 Tiananmen Square.

Had China just been honest about this from the start it could have been contained to a small region.