As a truly independent voter, I find it funny that our Virginia Governor mandated the stay at home until the day after the Republican primaries....He is a Democrat. June 10th does seem like a funny day, that the virus will just go away.Originally Posted by steelreserve
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Which folks, sorry, we were all out on the golf course, but not on the beach.Its amazing you folks don't have anything to do.
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That pretty much nails big chunks of April 2020Its amazing you folks don't have anything to do.
You're kidding. Surely no one from Encinitas would ever be like that. They keep it real, Encinitas is street.An update about the 22 tickets issued in San Diego County by the Sheriffs Department: it was all residents of Encinitas.Duh.
I miiiight be stereotyping (since I lived there for 9 years), but my guess these were a bunch of “1% trust fund babies” telling the cops that their daddy will sue the cops.
At least this means Rimjob Steve is safe.
See you Space Cowboy ...
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No doubt for the 24-7 media crowd.That pretty much nails big chunks of April 2020
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Not just that
If someone is taking social distancing seriously there is only so much talking on the phone, texting, and other online communications that can replace face to face interactions with friends and co-workers for business, volunteering, exercising and socializing
Linked article below discusses how people are dealing with it in different ways
Or are you pretty much proceeding business as usual? If this has not caused a major disruption to how you lead your life and drastically reduced the number of people who you see outside of your household props to you
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifes...63d_story.html
Good article. So far, I'm in the unmotivated, do nothing frame of mind. I have lots of things that need done, but I live alone with my two dogs. No one sees anything and it doesn't bother me or my dogs if the floor isn't swept, dishes are in the sink or the laundry is still in the dryer...lol. I suppose I'll get things done one of these days.
It will be very, very weird to watch a game with an empty stadium. The whole “feeding off the fans” and momentum thing would, obviously l? be totally different and non-existent. But it would be interesting to hear the players and the coaches more...
The financial hit that the team would take would be incredible...I’m not even sure it would be feasible to have a season with empty stadiums. No ticket revenue, no game day merchandise, no game day concessions, no parking revenues...I don’t think a team could operate just based off of TV revenue...but maybe they could...
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they could all use a shot of reality like most working folks face daily
Everyone except the TEs!! :wink:
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Enough is enough - this "college" football coach is ready to put the revenue back in revenue sports ASAP
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said he is looking to return to the program's football facilities next month amid the coronavirus pandemic....
"In my opinion, if we have to bring our players back, test them. They're all in good shape. They're all 18, 19, 20, 21 and 22-year-olds. They're healthy. A lot of them can fight it off with their natural body, the antibodies and the build that they have he said, per KFOR's Dylan Buckingham. ...
There's some people that are asymptomatic. If that's true, then we sequester them. And people say that's crazy. No, it's not crazy because we need to continue and budget and run money through the state of Oklahoma.
We get people that get the flu during the season," Gundy said, per ESPN. "We quarantine them. We treat them. We make sure they're healthy. We bring ‘em back. It would be the same thing here, but at some point, we’ve got to go back to work. ...From what I read, the healthy people can fight this, the antibodies make it better. They're doing some blood transplants now with the people that have already gotten the disease, that have gotten over it that have the antibodies that can fight it."
https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/0...ay-coronavirus
"They're doing some blood transplants now"
Yeah, this is the guy to rely on in deciding when the time has come for the amateur student-athletes on the football team to once again "run money through the state of Oklahoma."
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Unless you are just unfortunate to have the right genetic marker, Coach. Then you just killed one of your healthy state money producing athletes. But it's a risk/reward world.Enough is enough - this "college" football coach is ready to put the revenue back in revenue sports ASAP
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said he is looking to return to the program's football facilities next month amid the coronavirus pandemic....
"In my opinion, if we have to bring our players back, test them. They're all in good shape. They're all 18, 19, 20, 21 and 22-year-olds. They're healthy. A lot of them can fight it off with their natural body, the antibodies and the build that they have he said, per KFOR's Dylan Buckingham. ...
There's some people that are asymptomatic. If that's true, then we sequester them. And people say that's crazy. No, it's not crazy because we need to continue and budget and run money through the state of Oklahoma.
We get people that get the flu during the season," Gundy said, per ESPN. "We quarantine them. We treat them. We make sure they're healthy. We bring ‘em back. It would be the same thing here, but at some point, we’ve got to go back to work. ...From what I read, the healthy people can fight this, the antibodies make it better. They're doing some blood transplants now with the people that have already gotten the disease, that have gotten over it that have the antibodies that can fight it."
https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/0...ay-coronavirus
"They're doing some blood transplants now"
Yeah, this is the guy to rely on in deciding when the time has come for the amateur student-athletes on the football team to once again "run money through the state of Oklahoma."
So much stupid. Just too much to take for tonight.
Good thing that Gundy gets paid more than 10 times that of other state employees: https://oklahomawatchdata.org/state-salaries and https://oklahomawatchdata.org/university-salaries/010
Worth noting: Within the last 24 hours, the total U.S. death toll from the coronavirus finally surpassed the country's expected background death rate of one day. Of course, not accounting for any deaths that it "stole" from the background rate and are now attributed to the virus instead.
For the world, the total deaths since November now equal approximately 27% of the normal death rate for one day, again not accounting for those that would normally be part of the background.
See you Space Cowboy ...
So what's an appropriate benchmark for action?
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You say that as if that means no other deaths happened. When, in fact, it would be the background death rate PLUS the COVID-19 deaths. By the way, I just looked up the NYC death rate. Last week, COVID-19 deaths averaged 2.5 times the normal death rate in 2010 (the last data I could find for NYC at the time). That means when you add the death rate from COVID-19 to the normal death rate, the number of deaths was over 400 a day in New York city.
That is how a city gets overwhelmed. If it wasn't for social-distancing and staying at home, that number would be exponentially higher.
Good Lord...I was looking for The Onion’s link to this story...Enough is enough - this "college" football coach is ready to put the revenue back in revenue sports ASAP
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said he is looking to return to the program's football facilities next month amid the coronavirus pandemic....
"In my opinion, if we have to bring our players back, test them. They're all in good shape. They're all 18, 19, 20, 21 and 22-year-olds. They're healthy. A lot of them can fight it off with their natural body, the antibodies and the build that they have he said, per KFOR's Dylan Buckingham. ...
There's some people that are asymptomatic. If that's true, then we sequester them. And people say that's crazy. No, it's not crazy because we need to continue and budget and run money through the state of Oklahoma.
We get people that get the flu during the season," Gundy said, per ESPN. "We quarantine them. We treat them. We make sure they're healthy. We bring ‘em back. It would be the same thing here, but at some point, we’ve got to go back to work. ...From what I read, the healthy people can fight this, the antibodies make it better. They're doing some blood transplants now with the people that have already gotten the disease, that have gotten over it that have the antibodies that can fight it."
https://www.si.com/college/2020/04/0...ay-coronavirus
"They're doing some blood transplants now"
Yeah, this is the guy to rely on in deciding when the time has come for the amateur student-athletes on the football team to once again "run money through the state of Oklahoma."
College football coaches have been on quite a run lately:
Daabo likes to travel: https://www.rotoworld.com/college-fo...7/dabo-swinney
Mike Leach has been spending his time offending people (and recruits!) on social media: https://www.msstate.edu/newsroom/art...t-coachs-tweet
In stark contrast, Ed Orgeron helped Louisiana's Governor get the message out: https://www.si.com/college/2020/03/1...-game-plan-lsu
Says something about us that the best way to get the residents of a state to follow public health guidelines is to have a football coach give them out.
For THIS action? At least a million dead in a month (in the U.S. only) before you even start considering it. It's a Black Death response. Totally not appropriate here.
For any action? Right when you get the warning, duh. Very simple - "I've asked the esteemed Dr. Fauci to come up with a plan for emergency preparedness, and to provide for the safety of the most vulnerable. If he suggests locking down the entire country, at the end of this news conference he will be told to try again, and punched in the nuts repeatedly by a team of experts until he comes up with a better plan or dies." Problem solved.
Like, no joke, if they had come to me and said, "Hey SR, we have this disease with a 99 percent survival rate, and we're really struggling with ideas, so we will pay you $10 million to come up with the most retarded possible way to deal with it," I would have had to tell them sorry guys, I can't take your money. You already nailed it. I can't improve upon this.
What it means is it increased the overall death rate by a couple percent nationally (minus the death that would have happened anyway), or globally it has increased the overall death rate by a fraction of 1%.
In New York specifically, it is worse than that in the immediate short term. On the other hand, New York is literally the only city in the entire country that is constructed the way it is - with much if not most of the whole city approximating the downtown of most other cities. People packed into multi-story buildings and mass transit ridership higher than the total population of any other city except L.A. It should be no surprise that it is far worse there than anywhere else. And on the other side of the coin, highly unlikely that it would get anywhere near that in other places.
Then the exponent would be a very low one.
The problem with this approach is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy. "Our model was off by 10 times too high? It must be because social distancing is WORKING so much better than we expected" Or, "Our model was too low? It must be because social distancing isn't being followed enough!" Must be nice to be able to go back and always revise your answers to be the right ones.
You'll notice that the models have never been too low yet, even in New York. That ought to make you wonder. Remember the famous University of Washington study that was being used to predict the mass shortages of ventilators and hospital beds, including in New York? Turns out their estimates were all several times too high. Then they revised them downward to reflect the changing situation, and they still turned out to be several times too high. Here's the punchline: The lockdown was built in to their predictions from the beginning.
Where are all the hospitals that are overwhelmed? So far it looks as if they have constructed a lot of temporary hospitals that are not being used, except at very small levels, and only then to avoid mixing different groups of patients, not because of capacity issues. Where are the vast shortages of equipment? Seems like they've come nowhere near exhausting the already available supplies, and in the meantime ramped up the capacity to produce a lot more.
Lots of fear out there being repeated like a mantra, but increasingly, it seems the worst case is not being borne out, and even the likely case with precautions is not being borne out.
A good way to summarize this episode is, "How accurate is your concept of one thousand? Now, Part B: how accurately can you relate one thousand to ten million, or a hundred million?"
See you Space Cowboy ...
Well, they'd certainly be asking the right person.
GOOD JOB
See you Space Cowboy ...
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Links below to article summarizing and full video (could not embed video) of CNBC interview this morning with Bill Gates.
He has directed a lot of his philanthropy to public health issues and warned in 2015 that preparations for a pandemic merited much greater concern than was being provided.
Sees economy starting to reopen at end of May (manufacturing & construction back up first) and schools reopening in the fall
Suggested therapeutic treatments for sick people could begin to roll out in four to six months, but it would take at least 18 months to develop a safe and effective vaccine to prevent COVID-19.
“I don’t think going to big, say, public sports-type events, that the economic benefit relative to the risks, that will work out until we’re back in normal times,” he said.
Sports leagues obviously disagree, but as the saying goes "it is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
Good stuff if you have the time to watch it from someone who cannot be accused of having his head in the clouds and lacking a business background
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/bill...nt-revert.html
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/0...-warnings.html
Any return to normalcy depends on being able to accurately test for this thing. Which we can still not do at a large enough scale. I continue to fail to understand why more people are not outraged over that simple fact. Screw masks, PPEs, and vents. We can't even manage to pull our crap together to test people. You want quarantines to end, less drastic measures to be emplaced for social distancing, and a reasoned return to work -- well its all magical fairy dust BS without the ability to rapidly and on a mass scale test for this thing.
To my knowledge, we still can't and don't have the capacity for that. The failure of leadership on this front is staggering.
He's been studying and funding others that study epidemics/pandemics for years, so he knows what he's talking about.
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Gates gets into the need for testing before you start to reopen the economy early in the interview at the 4 minute mark
As far as a return to a new normalcy (IMO for segments of the economy such as brick & mortar retail there is never going to be a return to previous levels) with everything up and running, he contends that is not going to happen until you get a vaccine.
I've been following along in this thread since it's inception. I agree with a lot of you and disagree on certain points with some of you. This whole thing has become quite a mess. My question is this (just for gaging your thoughts on it), does anybody think this whole Covid-19 thing could possibly be some sort of terror attack? I mean, the terror that has been generated among the population at large is on a whole other level compared to that of say a 9-11 attack. Not only that but economies that are severely being effected, government that is stepping in and telling you what you can and can not do, and I hear now that they may also be telling 'big box stores' what they can and can not sell. Heard they're talking about roping off sections of stores that contain 'non-essential' stuff. I respect much of what all of you have had to say and am curious on your thoughts about this?
Gates is probably right that things will not start moving back in the correct direction of opening back up until at least May. No politician would be willing to risk lifting his/her orders by then, and any business or industry making a wildcat attempt to ignore them will be shamed into submission.
I think the tipping point is not really going to come about because of any particular medical readiness milestone. It will be when people's fear of the virus is outweighed by their fear of what will happen to their jobs, their houses, their families, etc., if things do not return to normal. Once the general death rate starts declining rather than rising, and the absolute number per day reaches a level that people are no longer "afraid" of, I imagine you will very quickly see public sentiment shifting toward giving the finger to the harshest restrictions, even if it means nuking the ideal medical situation. This could happen more quickly than you think - since the New York City area is responsible for more than half the deaths in the entire country, once that one localized situation burns itself out, it will have a disproportionate impact on the overall rate, and because of what was mentioned earlier, NYC's is not a situation that is likely to repeat itself anywhere else in any case.
While it is impossible to deny that Bill Gates has a world of experience in business, as well as extensive experience funding efforts to eradicate disease, the one perspective he does not have is that of a person who is immediately impacted by the shutdown. Just in my own experience among the people I know, the ones who are the most vocal with "Extend the lockdown! Flatten the curve! We're all in this together!" are the ones who are not really affected by it very much. It is a mild inconvenience that they will get through by doing hobbies and binge-watching Tiger King, and posting Instagram photos of the "quarantine meal" they cooked, and remarking about how it isn't that bad to join conference calls in your pajamas, or how not being so focused on billable hours has helped them slow down and appreciate the little things in life that are all around us. They are singing a lot different song from the others who are more like, "I can't afford to pay my 6 employees this month, and if we're waiting until June 30 to open back up, we won't be able to open back up at all," or "Technically I still have a job, but they haven't given me any shifts in three weeks."
It would not be surprising to me if it was the start of May, not the end, when you start to see signs of clamoring to get back to normal. If you are going to bet the house on something - to say nothing of betting everyone else's house - it had better be the most indisputable, surefire 100% lock in the world. And May ought to be about the point at which it no longer holds that indisputable sway, and "The virus is somewhat dangerous and should be taken seriously" begins to intersect with "It is clearly not the Apocalypse, and this is clearly not sustainable for much longer, so it is ok to question it and we need to come up with another plan."
What will be very interesting is how people respond in the fall, when the panic will inevitably be stirred up again. I have a hard time believing that many will be willing to sign up for Round 2 of this, regardless of whether the danger is there. I imagine the governors of certain hardcore blue states (CA, NY, WA, OR, IL, among others) will be chomping at the bit to re-impose full lockdowns with dire warnings about it lasting for another 6 months - and in many cases the response is going to be "Fuck that shit." Possibly many of the legal challenges will have been resolved by then and helped take certain things off the table, or medical progress will have helped make the situation more manageable, but we'll see.
It may be true that huge-scale entertainment like sporting events and concerts may not be back in recognizable form for a while, but before too much longer, the government is not going to have control over what else is open and when, and how that works is going to be determined by people's own assessment of the risk and their willingness to do it - as it should be.
See you Space Cowboy ...
There is indication from multiple sources that the "curve" is starting to flatten, and the spread is starting to slow. This is encouraging signs. Hopefully another month will squash this thing.
While the idea that it is a deliberate "terror attack" stretches the limits of credibility, I will say this.
There are certain groups of people who had different but convergent interests in pumping this thing up into as big a crisis as possible. Then there were others who were bound to follow a certain course of action out of self-preservation, even if that course of action was beyond extreme. And the current, absolutely toxic environment of public discourse played a big part in assisting the first group as well as dictating the course of the second group. That combined to allow it to cascade into the perfect storm of panic and extreme reactions. When the harsh reality is, you could blow it up into something 10 or 20 times worse than this, and it still would not even register, in the grand scheme of things, as a very big deal.
I am hopeful that once the dust settles, people will be able to add that up, and maybe avoid a repeat performance from taking place ever again. However, those in the first group above have a big head start, in that they have set up the argument to be unwinnable, and they have the machinery of public shaming on full alert to discourage most from even trying.
See you Space Cowboy ...
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