Game balls and goats vs Buffalo

[Fire Goodell]

With journeyman like Ryan Fitzpatrick, this team wins the Super Bowl.

You're always in it with Fitzy

[teegre]

You are correct. Those INTs had nothing to do with arm strength.

Here's the part of that play that nobody seems to understand. He didn't make the wrong read. He made a throw out of desperation because he was just trying to make a play, but just threw it up hoping the safety wouldn't get there.

There was a single high safety on that play. He had two WRs lined up left running deep routes...one running each side of the field. If he used his eyes or a pump fake to move the safety, he had the throw to Rudolph. He made up his mind early and either forgot because he was stressed with the way the game had been going for him, or he simply doesn't understand how to manipulate defenders. That is something that comes in time if he is capable of handling all the stresses of playing.

Some guys never figure it out. They can do it in practice. They can go over the playbook and describe everything they have to do on a play. They can go through walkthroughs and simulate what they will do in certain situations...but some guys can't do it when they are in the action. They freeze. They simply are not capable of processing all the information quickly enough and they are incapable of holding up under the pressure. They need to find out if Hodges is capable of doing enough quarterback things under stress to know if he can be a legitimate starting option.

A quarterback like Ben would have probably looked the safety off and made a big play. The defense looked like it was set up for Duck to fail. A quality quarterback sees that defense and looks at that same defensive set as a big play waiting to happen. That's the difference. Ben probably would have known pre-snap where he was going with the ball and would have moved the safety where he wanted him to go. Remember, there was one single safety on top. That is a gimme if you know what you are looking at and how to defeat it.

Outstanding

[Mojouw]

Perhaps I have identified two plays that are not the best examples of what I am getting at - because I agree with the breakdowns and thoughts that many have posted here.

There is something with Hodges and his game in that he refuses to go more than 4 yards downfield between the numbers. I think he only wants to throw to the sideline where he can put his guy between the ball and the defender because he has little confidence in his arm at this level.

No idea if I am right and it is likely thinking about it too much!

[pczach]

Perhaps I have identified two plays that are not the best examples of what I am getting at - because I agree with the breakdowns and thoughts that many have posted here.

There is something with Hodges and his game in that he refuses to go more than 4 yards downfield between the numbers. I think he only wants to throw to the sideline where he can put his guy between the ball and the defender because he has little confidence in his arm at this level.

No idea if I am right and it is likely thinking about it too much!

I agree with you. I've noticed the same thing. He almost never throws the ball in the middle of the field.

I'm not sure why he refuses to do it, but your thoughts make as much sense as anything else I can think of.

[Mojouw]

I agree with you. I've noticed the same thing. He almost never throws the ball in the middle of the field.

I'm not sure why he refuses to do it, but your thoughts make as much sense as anything else I can think of.

I think that is why the way "arm strength" is typically talked about in the pre-draft process is SOOO frustrating. For me, it isn't about how far a guy can throw it. It is about what he trusts his arm to be able to accomplish. If that receiver flashes open down the far has between the CB and the FS, does he trust that he can zip it in there? Does he trust that he can throw that square out to the sideline? What about the "Cover 2 hole" between the CB and the safety?

Right now, I do not think Hodges trusts his ability to do that. Of course, neither did Rudolph. Better and more knowledgeable football knowers than me will have to attempt to discern if that is because they simply are not physically able to, or if they just are not mentally ready to.

I wish "arm strength" talked more about these kind of things. Rather than "OMG! He can throw so FAR!"

[pczach]

I think that is why the way "arm strength" is typically talked about in the pre-draft process is SOOO frustrating. For me, it isn't about how far a guy can throw it. It is about what he trusts his arm to be able to accomplish. If that receiver flashes open down the far has between the CB and the FS, does he trust that he can zip it in there? Does he trust that he can throw that square out to the sideline? What about the "Cover 2 hole" between the CB and the safety?

Right now, I do not think Hodges trusts his ability to do that. Of course, neither did Rudolph. Better and more knowledgeable football knowers than me will have to attempt to discern if that is because they simply are not physically able to, or if they just are not mentally ready to.

I wish "arm strength" talked more about these kind of things. Rather than "OMG! He can throw so FAR!"

Also, issues with arm strength are usually overcome if a QB can make throws with anticipation. If a QB has a decent arm and throws the ball before the receiver makes his break on the route, it is unlikely the defender will be able to react to the ball quickly enough because his eyes are on the receiver. It also depends on what coverage he is throwing against. In man coverage, the defenders will usually have his back to the play. In zone, the defenders will be facing the QB.

The strange thing is that more arm strength is required to throw to the boundaries. If you're throwing a deep out to the wide side of the field, that requires a fastball to get it there on time. The INT that White had on the sideline was the type of throw you would think Duck would be afraid to make if he didn't trust his arm.

[teegre]

IMO, Duck throwing that INT on the sideline was more about him not throwing to the correct spot. That ball should have been on the outside of the receiver, so that either the receiver catches it OR the pass goes out of bounds. Instead, Duck threw it two yards inside, right where the defender could get the ball.

That throw could indeed be about arm strength (or lack thereof), because Aaron Rodgers zips that ball and the defender has no chance to break on it. Maybe. Because, with that inside ball placement, even a rocket pass has more of a chance of being intercepted (than if it had been thrown outside).

I think mojoUW is on to something about the middle of the field, though. At one point, Josh Allen threw a ball right between two defenders. Any amount of inaccuracy would have resulted in a batted pass (or an INT). Allen drilled it right to the receiver... with all of the confidence of Brett Favre. I’ve yet to see Duck do that.

Do not get me wrong: Duck has thrown up plenty of 50/50 balls, but none right down the middle (looking into the teeth of the defense).

[86WARD]

Also, issues with arm strength are usually overcome if a QB can make throws with anticipation. If a QB has a decent arm and throws the ball before the receiver makes his break on the route, it is unlikely the defender will be able to react to the ball quickly enough because his eyes are on the receiver. It also depends on what coverage he is throwing against. In man coverage, the defenders will usually have his back to the play. In zone, the defenders will be facing the QB.

The strange thing is that more arm strength is required to throw to the boundaries. If you're throwing a deep out to the wide side of the field, that requires a fastball to get it there on time. The INT that White had on the sideline was the type of throw you would think Duck would be afraid to make if he didn't trust his arm.

He made the exact same throw for a completion later in the game.

[teegre]

He made the exact same throw for a completion later in the game.

QUESTION: Hiw was the ball placement on that completion?

[Mojouw]

He made the exact same throw for a completion later in the game.

That throw was not across his body and was to the near side of the field. Same route. And can we talk about how DJ was just smoking one of the best CBs in the game all evening?

[pczach]

He made the exact same throw for a completion later in the game.

Exactly. That's why it's odd to even think he is unsure of his arm strength. However, teeger and Mojouw make good points about accuracy and the platform from which he made each throw.

[Mojouw]

That throw was not across his body and was to the near side of the field. Same route. And can we talk about how DJ was just smoking one of the best CBs in the game all evening?

Nevermind. I think I have the two throws backwards in my head! But the answer to Teegre's question is the key. One was behind the WR and towards the field side of the play and one was ahead of the WR and to the boundary side of the play. I'm gonna let you all puzzle out which throw had which result.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Exactly. That's why it's odd to even think he is unsure of his arm strength. However, teeger and Mojouw make good points about accuracy and the platform from which he made each throw.

Hodges has decent intermediate arm strength, he doesn't have a big arm to go deep or a real strong arm like some of the top QB's. I think he has decent enough footwork in getting thru his reads and that helps with velocity.

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

Hodges has decent intermediate arm strength, he doesn't have a big arm to go deep or a real strong arm like some of the top QB's. I think he has decent enough footwork in getting thru his reads and that helps with velocity.

Big arm qb's are overrated and most with bigger arms overthrow the wr's going deep.

[86WARD]

Exactly. That's why it's odd to even think he is unsure of his arm strength. However, teeger and Mojouw make good points about accuracy and the platform from which he made each throw.

That’s the point of my comment. I don’t think he is unsure of his arm strength. I think he’s either being told not to throw in the middle of the field, he’s not comfortable with the reads or he isn’t flat out seeing it. Someone who watches the game films would have to look and see if there’s opportunities in the middle. Maybe there just aren’t a lot of routes being run in the middle?

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

That is a really general statement. I would like to see some stats or proof that most QB's with deep throwing ability overthrow receivers.

Also, this seems similar to saying..."Home Run hitters are overrated because they strike out more often. Just give me a bunch of middle infielders with warning track power on my MLB team "

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

That is a really general statement. I would like to see some stats or proof that most QB's with deep throwing ability overthrow receivers.

Also, this seems similar to saying..."Home Run hitters are overrated because they strike out more often. Just give me a bunch of middle infielders with warning track power on my MLB team "

Yes I guess my comment was to general and not all do. Jeff George comes to mind for one that did. Ben did last year and didn't have his timing right and a lot of deep balls was over thrown. I'm not saying Ben was like that every year though.

[Mojouw]

That’s the point of my comment. I don’t think he is unsure of his arm strength. I think he’s either being told not to throw in the middle of the field, he’s not comfortable with the reads or he isn’t flat out seeing it. Someone who watches the game films would have to look and see if there’s opportunities in the middle. Maybe there just aren’t a lot of routes being run in the middle?

Last season, Ben lived and died over the middle of the field. So either Fichtner totally retooled the offense in general, or he is attempting to tailor it to strengths and mask weaknesses. Rudolph threw to the middle a great deal compared to Hodges. I, only my opinion, figure it is a combination of Hodges doesn't throw there and Fichtner is not going to demand his QB do something he is wholly uncomfortable with and has demonstrated zero ability to execute.

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

Last season, Ben lived and died over the middle of the field. So either Fichtner totally retooled the offense in general, or he is attempting to tailor it to strengths and mask weaknesses. Rudolph threw to the middle a great deal compared to Hodges. I, only my opinion, figure it is a combination of Hodges doesn't throw there and Fichtner is not going to demand his QB do something he is wholly uncomfortable with and has demonstrated zero ability to execute.

We all know Tomlin said He hopes Duck don't kill us, well maybe him and Fichtner feel the middle is more prone to ints and they don't want Duck going there much.