Duck

[Fire Goodell]

I don't know how some people say he doesn't have arm strength, it's not a problem. He doesn't have a cannon but he can still test defenses long. He threw some lasers yesterday.

The things i like most about his game is his anticipation with the throws, and he goes through his progressions FAST. When Rudolph is on his 2nd read, Hodges likely already is on his 3rd or 4th read. I'm starting to think that maybe this is an ability that can't be learned but you just have, all QB's I've seen play always had that ability to go through progressions quickly from the get go. Meanwhile QB's that tend to lock on to their first read tend to be plagued with that issue for most if not all of their careers.

I'm excited for the Buffalo game, that's gonna be the real test for Hodges if he can move the ball against a top 5 defense.

[86WARD]

His pocket prescience is leaps and bounds better than Rudolph. Just a couple incompletions yesterday were actually positive plays in my book as he escaped the collapsing pocket, avoided the sack and was able to unload the ball...

[Fire Goodell]

His pocket prescience is leaps and bounds better than Rudolph. Just a couple incompletions yesterday were actually positive plays in my book as he escaped the collapsing pocket, avoided the sack and was able to unload the ball...

Despite a couple throwaways, he completed 84% yesterday. That is totally money.

[86WARD]

Pass placement was very nice too.

I think his rating was 117+ for yesterday.

[JnK]

This kid is carrying himself well and has a fire in his gut to succeed. I would not be surprised to see him take us on a deep playoff run, especially with the way our defense is playing. Each week he seems to look a little more comfortable out there.

[EzraTank]

3-0, his stats are good and he makes good decisions for this early in his career imo.

Can he be a legitimate starter in the nfl in your opinion?

No. He lacks the arm strength. He's got all the other tools but he's not an NFL starter.

[Fire Goodell]

No. He lacks the arm strength. He's got all the other tools but he's not an NFL starter.

He's not lacking arm strength, he's had some throws that went 50+ air yards. Sure he's not gonna throw it out of the stadium like Mahomes, but arm strength is overrated when it comes to being a good quarterback.

I will take a QB with accuracy, ball placement, and quick progressions over a cannon armed QB without those.

[Mojouw]

Look at the third down conversion rate and the red zone TD rate. Those are still well below the mark for a viable long-term NFL starter. If you are struggling to extend drives and score in the red zone against the Arizona Cardinals, it is only going to get worse from there.

Can Hodges, grow and progress -- of course. But I would pump the brakes a bit on the Duck hype train. From what I can tell he has attempted about 32 3rd down passes and only 11 have netted a first down. The better offenses in the league are converting 40-45%, Steelers under Hodges are at 35% (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...conversion-pct).

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct - Dead last in the entire league. Even if you look at the last 3 games (the Hodges starts) they are converting redzone opportunities into TDs at 18%. That is 1 in 5. The next worst team in the past 3 games is 25 percentage points higher! https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct

I am rooting for Hodges, just as I was for Rudolph, but every single underlying statistic indicates that Hodges winning results are not sustainable.

[Dissolv]

The flip side of that is that he is doing better than our only other option.

[HollywoodSteel]

Look at the third down conversion rate and the red zone TD rate. Those are still well below the mark for a viable long-term NFL starter. If you are struggling to extend drives and score in the red zone against the Arizona Cardinals, it is only going to get worse from there.

Can Hodges, grow and progress -- of course. But I would pump the brakes a bit on the Duck hype train. From what I can tell he has attempted about 32 3rd down passes and only 11 have netted a first down. The better offenses in the league are converting 40-45%, Steelers under Hodges are at 35% (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...conversion-pct).

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct - Dead last in the entire league. Even if you look at the last 3 games (the Hodges starts) they are converting redzone opportunities into TDs at 18%. That is 1 in 5. The next worst team in the past 3 games is 25 percentage points higher! https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct

I am rooting for Hodges, just as I was for Rudolph, but every single underlying statistic indicates that Hodges winning results are not sustainable.

All totally valid points.

I didn’t actually get to see the game, I just followed along on ESPN game cast and watched some highlights, so I’ll trust you guys to do the actual analysis. Would you say that a big reason for lack of TDs is Duck himself? Is he being inaccurate? Not seeing things? That type of thing?

I guess I’m wondering if the main problem is the QB, or if it’s mostly something else that can be more easily corrected.

I’m just looking for reasons to be optimistic even though I know I should temper my expectations. We are playing some serious nobodies on offense, but fortunately they have been coming through for us here and there. And when Juju comes back, maybe that makes a real difference.

What does give me some hope is the recent improvement by Washington, the back up RBs, and the steady emergence of Diontae Johnson as a star. I really think this guy is going to take on more of the AB role as the #1, allowing Juju to be more of what he was at his best.

Will it all come together perfectly this year with Duck under center? Probably not. But if every week can be a little better than the last, we at least have a shot to be competitive.

What I’m asking is, are you seeing serious limitations with Duck that simply won’t be overcome this year? Or, with better play calling and the other players improving around him, can he be good enough to make some of the plays that haven’t been made over the past few week?

[AtlantaDan]

Look at the third down conversion rate and the red zone TD rate. Those are still well below the mark for a viable long-term NFL starter. If you are struggling to extend drives and score in the red zone against the Arizona Cardinals, it is only going to get worse from there.

Can Hodges, grow and progress -- of course. But I would pump the brakes a bit on the Duck hype train. From what I can tell he has attempted about 32 3rd down passes and only 11 have netted a first down. The better offenses in the league are converting 40-45%, Steelers under Hodges are at 35% (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...conversion-pct).

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct - Dead last in the entire league. Even if you look at the last 3 games (the Hodges starts) they are converting redzone opportunities into TDs at 18%. That is 1 in 5. The next worst team in the past 3 games is 25 percentage points higher! https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct

I am rooting for Hodges, just as I was for Rudolph, but every single underlying statistic indicates that Hodges winning results are not sustainable.

Agreed the offense remains abysmal, but we are dealing with the following skill position players as of the depth chart last August - #4 QB, backup RBs, #3 WR, rookie WR third round draft choice,and other WRs from practice squad alomg with other teams' scrap heaps.

So this statement fits the performance of this offense - "it is like a dog's walking on his hind legs. It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all."

Nobody believes this roster is the long term plan for a sustainable offense but instead what is available for a stunning shot at the playoffs - you work with what you have, not with what you want

[DesertSteel]

Look at the third down conversion rate and the red zone TD rate. Those are still well below the mark for a viable long-term NFL starter. If you are struggling to extend drives and score in the red zone against the Arizona Cardinals, it is only going to get worse from there.

Can Hodges, grow and progress -- of course. But I would pump the brakes a bit on the Duck hype train. From what I can tell he has attempted about 32 3rd down passes and only 11 have netted a first down. The better offenses in the league are converting 40-45%, Steelers under Hodges are at 35% (https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...conversion-pct).

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct - Dead last in the entire league. Even if you look at the last 3 games (the Hodges starts) they are converting redzone opportunities into TDs at 18%. That is 1 in 5. The next worst team in the past 3 games is 25 percentage points higher! https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/sta...ne-scoring-pct

I am rooting for Hodges, just as I was for Rudolph, but every single underlying statistic indicates that Hodges winning results are not sustainable.

A lot of that seems to be 3rd and long too due to conservative play calling and a poor running game. It'd be helpful to add that context to the narrative. How many of those 45% teams are doing it on 3rd and 7? My guess is not many. I don't think you can isolate a stat and get the full picture.

That said, he's just a backup until proven otherwise.

[Mojouw]

All totally valid points.

I didn’t actually get to see the game, I just followed along on ESPN game cast and watched some highlights, so I’ll trust you guys to do the actual analysis. Would you say that a big reason for lack of TDs is Duck himself? Is he being inaccurate? Not seeing things? That type of thing?

I guess I’m wondering if the main problem is the QB, or if it’s mostly something else that can be more easily corrected.

I’m just looking for reasons to be optimistic even though I know I should temper my expectations. We are playing some serious nobodies on offense, but fortunately they have been coming through for us here and there. And when Juju comes back, maybe that makes a real difference.

What does give me some hope is the recent improvement by Washington, the back up RBs, and the steady emergence of Diontae Johnson as a star. I really think this guy is going to take on more of the AB role as the #1, allowing Juju to be more of what he was at his best.

Will it all come together perfectly this year with Duck under center? Probably not. But if every week can be a little better than the last, we at least have a shot to be competitive.

What I’m asking is, are you seeing serious limitations with Duck that simply won’t be overcome this year? Or, with better play calling and the other players improving around him, can he be good enough to make some of the plays that haven’t been made over the past few week?

Agreed the offense remains abysmal, but we are dealing with the following skill position players as of the depth chart last August - #4 QB, backup RBs, #3 WR, rookie WR third round draft choice,and other WRs from practice squad alomg with other teams' scrap heaps.

So this statement fits the performance of this offense - "it is like a dog's walking on his hind legs. It is not done well; but you are surprised to find it done at all."

Nobody believes this roster is the long term plan for a sustainable offense but instead what is available for a stunning shot at the playoffs - you work with what you have, not with what you want

I completely agree with everything you two are saying. Considering the situation, and as Dissolv pointed out, the alternative -- it is all gravy for 2019.

But just as the more I saw Mason Rudolph, the less I saw "NFL Starter", the same is from the bit of Hodges I have seen. I see a guy who can be a great back-up QB and then occasionally pop-up around the league as a "starter" with a hot-hand kinda run. Something on the order of Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Kelly Holcomb, the McCown brothers, etc. Excellent player to have on your roster and will likely be in the league a long time - -but unless he has a massive leap sometime in the next 5 weeks or during the off-season (Either or both is totally possible), he is not playing at "starting QB" level for me.

[AtlantaDan]

I completely agree with everything you two are saying. Considering the situation, and as Dissolv pointed out, the alternative -- it is all gravy for 2019.

But just as the more I saw Mason Rudolph, the less I saw "NFL Starter", the same is from the bit of Hodges I have seen. I see a guy who can be a great back-up QB and then occasionally pop-up around the league as a "starter" with a hot-hand kinda run. Something on the order of Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Kelly Holcomb, the McCown brothers, etc. Excellent player to have on your roster and will likely be in the league a long time - -but unless he has a massive leap sometime in the next 5 weeks or during the off-season (Either or both is totally possible), he is not playing at "starting QB" level for me.

I will take how Nick Foles stepping in for the Eagles' starting QB two years ago turned out

[Mojouw]

I will take how Nick Foles stepping in for the Eagles' starting QB two years ago turned out

Absolutely. Big Duck energy and all that. But I wouldn't turn around and give that same player $20+ million and the keys to my franchise.

[ALLD]

He's not lacking arm strength, he's had some throws that went 50+ air yards. Sure he's not gonna throw it out of the stadium like Mahomes, but arm strength is overrated when it comes to being a good quarterback.

I will take a QB with accuracy, ball placement, and quick progressions over a cannon armed QB without those.

Will need to change the game play to dink and dunk sometimes.

[AtlantaDan]

Absolutely. Big Duck energy and all that. But I wouldn't turn around and give that same player $20+ million and the keys to my franchise.

Nor did the Eagles

[86WARD]

Definitely some bad teams at the top of that 3rd down conversion list...

[Mojouw]

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...0/splits/2019/

Here are Hodges splits. He hasn't been terrible on third down at all. It is actually third and medium that seems to mess this team up.

As to the bad teams on the conversion list, there are two in the top 1/3rd - Dallas and Indy. I would argue both of those teams lose games because of their defense not their offense.

All I am saying is that the 2019 Pittsburgh Steelers do not currently have an offense that can win multiple playoff games. They don't convert third downs reliably and they fail to consistently turn redzone trips into touchdowns. No matter how good your defense is the law of averages is going to eventually bite you square in the butt.

Until Hodges or another QB on this roster proves than can succeed in those two areas of the game I will remain optimistic and squarely in their corner, but highly skeptical of claims of "starter" or "franchise" QB.

[43Hitman]

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...0/splits/2019/

Here are Hodges splits. He hasn't been terrible on third down at all. It is actually third and medium that seems to mess this team up.

As to the bad teams on the conversion list, there are two in the top 1/3rd - Dallas and Indy. I would argue both of those teams lose games because of their defense not their offense.

All I am saying is that the 2019 Pittsburgh Steelers do not currently have an offense that can win multiple playoff games. They don't convert third downs reliably and they fail to consistently turn redzone trips into touchdowns. No matter how good your defense is the law of averages is going to eventually bite you square in the butt.

Until Hodges or another QB on this roster proves than can succeed in those two areas of the game I will remain optimistic and squarely in their corner, but highly skeptical of claims of "starter" or "franchise" QB.

At another site that I frequent, some are calling his performance legendary. No I didn't stutter.

[Fire Goodell]

At another site that I frequent, some are calling his performance legendary. No I didn't stutter.

The way people talk about him, they say he may be the greatest quarterback that ever lived! Maybe he is that good, maybe not

- - - Updated - - -

In all seriousness, why is such a big deal being made about his height? It's a non issue. He's basically the same size as Baker Mayfield (also 6'1, and one pound heavier lol). He's taller than Wilson, Brees, and Murray who are all pretty dang good (Murray will be)

/tangent

I don't understand how people can say he's definitely not the QB of the future. Yes, it's too early to crown him that. That, I will agree with. But to say he's definitely not the future QB is also premature. Why can't be be? Cause he's not 6'5? Cause he wasn't drafted in round 1? Cause he can't throw the ball 80 yards? There's a number of all-time great QB's who were none of those, and a huge list of QB's who had those things and ended up being huge busts.

I will say he makes the Steelers offense actually fun to watch compared to Rudolph. He's been playing with training wheels but has been making plays when needed to. 71% completion rating and 103 QB rating seems pretty damned good to me, especially for a rookie.

[DesertSteel]

Can Hodges be as good as Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson?

[Mojouw]

At another site that I frequent, some are calling his performance legendary. No I didn't stutter.

Yeah. It is that kinda stuff that I was trying to throw a bit of cold water on. I have no idea what Duck will become, but I do know what he is right now. It is far from legendary.

For some context on the numbers: the 2004 Steelers team converted 43% of their 3rd downs and 49% of their redzone trips were TDs.

[Fire Goodell]

Yeah. It is that kinda stuff that I was trying to throw a bit of cold water on. I have no idea what Duck will become, but I do know what he is right now. It is far from legendary.

For some context on the numbers: the 2004 Steelers team converted 43% of their 3rd downs and 49% of their redzone trips were TDs.

[43Hitman]

​45-0 WOOOOO!

- - - Updated - - -

Yeah. It is that kinda stuff that I was trying to throw a bit of cold water on. I have no idea what Duck will become, but I do know what he is right now. It is far from legendary.

For some context on the numbers: the 2004 Steelers team converted 43% of their 3rd downs and 49% of their redzone trips were TDs.

Yeah and neither do I. He is doing well enough for us to win and I am completely fine with that. It would be awesome if he's the next Drew Brees, but right now he is just a back-up QB doing what is asked of him. Nothing less and nothing more.

[DesertSteel]

Pass placement was very nice too.

Seeing the trajectory of his ball in person yesterday, I completely agree. His placement is very good. He throws a very good 50/50 ball.

[Dissolv]

Our only hope this year, is that he (and the rest of the offense, and special teams) rises up to "average", while the defense continues being elite, every single game. It's a tall order.

[86WARD]

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...0/splits/2019/

Here are Hodges splits. He hasn't been terrible on third down at all. It is actually third and medium that seems to mess this team up.

As to the bad teams on the conversion list, there are two in the top 1/3rd - Dallas and Indy. I would argue both of those teams lose games because of their defense not their offense.

All I am saying is that the 2019 Pittsburgh Steelers do not currently have an offense that can win multiple playoff games. They don't convert third downs reliably and they fail to consistently turn redzone trips into touchdowns. No matter how good your defense is the law of averages is going to eventually bite you square in the butt.

Until Hodges or another QB on this roster proves than can succeed in those two areas of the game I will remain optimistic and squarely in their corner, but highly skeptical of claims of "starter" or "franchise" QB.

I’d be willing to bet that the third and mediums are a result of one of the two play being a terrible run play for a loss...ie) Benny Snell trying time bounce or run something outside...

I believe at some point yesterday towards the middle of the third quarter, maybe, the announcers said his pass completion percentage on third downs was at 100%...??

[bendsteel]

One needs to consider a couple of things. 1) he has had a shell of a team to work with. Give him JuJu and Conner at minimum just for a fair comparo. 2) a number of his TDs came from well outside the redzone. I will take never getting into the RZ and still scoring TDs every Sunday!
It makes me laugh at fools when they state, definitively, "he is NOT an NFL QB". I am not saying he is or isnt, but I am smart enough and humble enough to state that I do not know....yet. There have been some pretty marginal QBs that have gone on to a SB. Me thinks a lot of you should get your resume into the organization quickly, because y`all are clearly NFL idiot savants. Enjoy the wins. Let the guy grow for a few games, God forbid a whole season, maybe get the entire playbook and team, then state your claim. There was a young Redskins fan at the bar with Daddy yesterday flapping his gums about how shitty Duck is and how he cant wait to see him get knocked out of the game so we can get back playing Rudolph(Daddy was wearing his Ok State jersey). My response was swift and direct. Him and Daddy left the bar, him in tears, Daddy with his tail tucked between his legs. The entire bar laughed/clapped them out the door. Apparently this is normal for these two. Just remember, we all have opinions but not one single one of them = fact. But hey, by all means, continue to look like idiots(sans savant). Tho I don't recommend doing it in public lest you be made an example of.

[Mojouw]

I’d be willing to bet that the third and mediums are a result of one of the two play being a terrible run play for a loss...ie) Benny Snell trying time bounce or run something outside...

I believe at some point yesterday towards the middle of the third quarter, maybe, the announcers said his pass completion percentage on third downs was at 100%...??

There is a stat or a site somewhere that tracks what was going on with third down throws. I saw something on the internet or in the game cut-ups I watched last night that said Duck was completing a ton of 3rd down passes, but almost all of them were far short of the sticks. If that is the case, I'm not giving him, or any other QB, a ton of credit for completing a 4 yard pass on 3rd and 8. The defense was trying to get you to take that throw.

Here is one version of that type of stat through Week 13: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb/2019

Hodges is just over 4 yards short of the sticks on his average 3rd down throw.From what I can tell that is worst in the NFL.