https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...ought-analysis
Worth a watch. Don't have to agree with the guy's breakdown, but it gives some more looks at what Mason Rudolph is and is not doing at QB right now.
https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...ought-analysis
Worth a watch. Don't have to agree with the guy's breakdown, but it gives some more looks at what Mason Rudolph is and is not doing at QB right now.
Rudolph has been rolling with the punches since day one he arrived in Pittsburgh. Fans calling him a wasted pick. Ben throws shade at him. Basically blacklisted throughout 2018. For all of his flaws and foepaws, we ought to be encouraged that we’re getting anything resembling decent out of him right now. A Lesser Quarterback would’ve folded Monday Night. We’ve already seen Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield meltdown on the National Stage even with a year under their belts.
Mason is basically a rookie QB ice-cold off the bench with no training and barely any offseason work with the team and the offense. Unlike Ben in 2004, the favorite comparison for Steelers fans right now to 2019 Mason, Mason is asked not to manage the game, but to grow up fast and save our season. Comes along decently until he gets a concussion due to a cheap shot. Starts off the past game in a fog, fans turn on him, but gets it together for the win.
Ben was “epic” in 2004 because he wasn’t required to be the hero. He was barely even asked to do anything. Throw 12-15 times a game and let the rest of the team do the rest. The Steelers alleviated a lot of pressure off of him with the running game. Ben just became the hero by doing his natural talent and make plays.
Mason has none of that luxury at all. He’s basically required to gain experience and gain it fast. Interesting concept to bring along a young Quarterback, but maybe Mason’s mental toughness and response to early adversity is the reason why the Steelers had a first round grade on him in the first place.
The behind throws are not an indicator of poor accuracy. I think it has more to do with just getting back into the swing of things after a long break, as well as stepping out of the comfort zone he’s been in. Watching film is not the same as game action. I believe Mason will just get better with more reps and the more he plays, but let’s hope it’s soon.
Ben was asked to do lots in 2004 but it was dependent on the game itself and how it unfolded.Originally Posted by Edman
Classic Billy C was throw early run late which was basically the mantra and great defense too with who they had ALL in their primes.
The game has evolved rapidly since 2004 with all the rule changes so to think that Mason could just come in and stand there and hand off doesn't work. Look at Lucks rookie season and guys even since him...hell Mahomes first full year he just aired it out.
Behind throws are accuracy 8.5/10
you have to lead the guy because what if a defender is right behind Washington? well odds are that pass is picked off.
Sadly the Steelers have overrated Mason by saying they had a first rd grade on him so he has to kinda perform like one and he hasn't. NOW openly I will say he has 9 games left to show maybe he really is but so far...he's a bust in a general sense of the term meaning to me he'd be a stop gap like Maddox before Ben.
Be interesting to see where Mason is at compared to Murray, Minshew, Jones, Allen, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, and Finley by the end of the season.
That's his NFL "Peer Group" for better or worse. Set of reasonable comparisons.
I'm happy to point out when I agree with you. I think you're spot on about Mason's mental toughness, which is why I'm not afraid of bringing him along "too quickly." He's not David Carr who is going to be ruined because he couldn't handle the fire. If he makes some mistakes, that's fine as long as each mistake puts him closer to working through his deficiencies and reach his ceiling quicker.
I'm not going to really be too hard on Mason for his performance Monday night. I'm glad we didn't play it safe to protect him. I like that we got to see how he responds to being in a hole, and gain the confidence of getting out of it. I think we got the best of all worlds seeing as we won the game. Better to make those mistakes against Miami where he could come back to win, than if we just won it without pushing Rudolph further down the path of growth, and thus perhaps costing us victories against better teams later on when we'll need Rudolph to be a sharper QB .
I honestly don't yet know what Mason Rudolph is at his best. I just really want to get him to his best as quickly as possible so that we know if his best is good enough to be our QB of the future. I do think he's gonna have to improve his footwork and timing on crossing routes, because I believe in order to be a great QB he's gonna have to be more of a cerebral Tom Brady type than a Big Ben type who can ever rely on his physicality to bail him out. The problem is, historically there haven't been a whole lot of successful Tom Brady types. You can't just be a Tom Brady light in the NFL. You have to be Tom Brady to win multiple Super Bowls without having exceptional physical ability.
And I also really appreciate the way you spelled foepaws. I'm picturing the paws of my our foes. But I guess this week we have to worry about foe hooves.
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we are going to give R3 Mason 9 more games and no more!We gave R1 J Jones & Bud a "bit" more than that. It takes Ben 6 or more games to warm up and he still shits the bed.
I understand what you’re saying about reasonable expectations, but to me it doesn’t really matter all that much what his particular draft class is doing.
If more of those other guys were lighting the league on fire, would that make Rudolph worse? If those other guys were all sucking harder, would that make Rudolph better?
Either Rudolph is our next franchise QB or he’s not. Now obviously we need to give him time to hit his ceiling so we can properly evaluate him, but in the end we are evaluating him against himself alone.
We want a QB who can win championships. If no other QB in his draft class is good enough to win championships, that won’t make me feel any better about not winning championships.
But I know I’m not actually saying anything controversial. And I’m not contradicting anything you said. I guess it is interesting for a discussion to compare him to his peers, but the real question is whether or not he’s good enough to be our next QB.
But while we are comparing him to his peers, of all the players listed, is Rudolph the most limited physically? If not, who is?
All good questions. I’m not sure I have any good answers. I do have the link to other part of the Miami breakdown:https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...ought-steelers
I think Rudolph is physically limited, but found ways to more than overcome that at the college level. What remains to be seen in the NFL is whether that was him or scheme. Or if the combination can be replicated at the NFL level.
As to what kind of QB can he be, my best answers are random NFL comparisons.
Case Keenum - you can win ball games but not really anything that matters.
Nick Foles - might win some big time things, but always looking for a better answer
Andy Dalton - plays great as long as everything around him is excellent
Jimmy Garappolo/Kirk Cousins - ask him to do what he is good at, hide his weakness, and surround with great weapons and it is going to go well.
So where does/will Rudolph fall on this spectrum of physically limited but long lived NFL QBs?
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Huh? He's far from a bust. He's a third round QB who is starting and winning games. Is he performing like a first round QB? No. Is he playing like a franchise QB? No. But he is playing decent football. Calling him a bust is pretty silly, IMO.
Actually, it wasn't worth the watch. I only got thru approx. half of it, but its possibly the worst ever attempt to break down the game of football I have ever seen. I mean, lots of stuttering, dead air pauses and zero insightful analysis of the plays or game of football. Most guys on their 3rd pitcher of Budweiser at Buffalo Wild Wings have more insight.
He critiques the first play as just a bad decision, but it takes 2 minutes to say that. That play to me is Rudolph not moving his feet and throwing off platform, therefore trying to throw a pass with all arm and no leg strength at a target he isn't even lined up with. The footwork he worked on in the offseason and showed in the preseason and the first game and a half that he got in this season is gone. Seemingly not getting back to the basics of footwork since returning from the concussion.
The second play is a rollout that the dude on the video critiques as having "no touch". Well, Rudolph is rolling out on a play action rollout that is designed for the TE, who is covered so his next target is downfield and he doesn't release the football until he is outside the numbers. The touch is actually OK, but essentially he made the decision to throw so late that he is trying to throw a pass 30 yards downfield into a phone booth on a rollout run. The play is 10 times better than the analysis.
I honestly know guys that break down the play of an 11 year old QB with more knowledge, detail and insight.
Fair enough. But you didn't include the rest of my statement in your response. I already conceded that the analysis was hit or miss -- but at least we get a posting of the "All 22" and some better looks at what Rudolph is and is not doing on key plays/throws as well as what the receivers are doing.
Far better to use that than the TV broadcast to make evaluations and I am certainly not paying to get access to it.
Thanks for the assessment. I think the comparisons are all fair, but not necessarily encouraging. But I'm not going to put words into your mouth. I totally get that you're just trying to make an honest guess based on what you've seen so far.
I suppose if you really wanted to list the full spectrum of QBs who came into the league as "physically limited" you'd put Tom Brady on there.
I can dream, can't I?
That's true, and honestly early in his career, he seemed to be a good, not great QB. He feasted off short passes, not making mistakes, and letting the defense and kicker win the game for him.Thanks for the assessment. I think the comparisons are all fair, but not necessarily encouraging. But I'm not going to put words into your mouth. I totally get that you're just trying to make an honest guess based on what you've seen so far.
I suppose if you really wanted to list the full spectrum of QBs who came into the league as "physically limited" you'd put Tom Brady on there.
I can dream, can't I?
I agree. I don't think it's fair to throw out the "bust" word in association with Rudolph anytime soon.
But to be charitable to SteelersNorth - which I know you generally like to be - I think I understand what he might means. While it's true that Mason was drafted in the third round, it was said that the Steelers only did that BECAUSE they had a first round grade on him. So IF Mason Rudolph was drafted as the intended heir apparent to Big Ben, and IF he turns out to just be a stop gap instead... then I can see how that is a "busted assessment" and therefor a miss.
It seems like we would never have moved up in the third round just for a solid back up. I think I would go so far as to agree that, again IF Mason does turn out to only be Charlie Batch then it was a mistake, in retrospect, to draft him where we did.
We are still pretty far from making that determination either way.
But, regardless, "bust" is not a term I'd use to describe a third round pick who ends up making solid contributions to the team, even if the pick turns out to be one we probably wouldn't have made if we could have seen the future..
That analysis isn't hit or miss. Its comparable to me taking my car into the dealership for an opinion on the seeming loss of power and having the janitor tell me that maybe its the brand of gas that I am putting in it. Bad response from a person with no real understanding of what is going on.
As for the All-22, its not always the best view. The first play you can actually see Rudolph's poor mechanics, footwork and not sliding in the pocket viewed better from the end zone, or actually from the TV. The all 22 angle is too far zoomed out to pick up that kind of detail.
Ok. But I do not have any of the following:
1. All 22 access.
2. A recording of the TV broadcast
3. Multiple camera angles and slow motion replay of specific passing plays
So while you may disagree, I think it is a valuable resource to look at key plays from the Miami game and evaluate what was or was not open on a give play. What it appears that Rudolph saw or didn't see. And aspects of his mechanics. It provides the various posters on this board a common set of data from which to base the wildly divergent opinions that are being offered on both Rudolph and Fichtner.
Further, if you disagree with it so much, put your own together and help move the conversation forward.
- - - Updated - - -
For sure. We could add another tier - with Brady and Montana. But I do not, at this point, see anything from Rudolph that warrants even opening that can of worms.Thanks for the assessment. I think the comparisons are all fair, but not necessarily encouraging. But I'm not going to put words into your mouth. I totally get that you're just trying to make an honest guess based on what you've seen so far.
I suppose if you really wanted to list the full spectrum of QBs who came into the league as "physically limited" you'd put Tom Brady on there.
I can dream, can't I?
1. All 22 is good sometimes with the deep developing plays on a 5-7 step depth, I agree.
2. Sorry, I record the games and if need be, can break down there. Often I can see the development of the play as it happens and get the understanding that way.
3. I don't have multiple camera angles too and at times they can be helpful, but many times its just redundant if you can see things from the original angle.
As far as putting together my own, I don't have the time or desire to and honestly I think the segment of the fan base that actually likes unbiased technical aspects of what is going on is probably around 10-20%. I think there is far more of a majority that prefer viewing football with bias towards their favorite players and influenced hate towards players, coaches, teams, etc that they have a preconceived opinion of.
In your opinion, is the "stagnation" and "check down focused" (for lack of better terms, I came up with these) based on which or what combination of the following:
1. Mason Rudolph not recognizing what constitutes open in the NFL.
2. No WR's getting open.
3. Tunnel Vision on first read.
4. Fichtner's play design
5. Rudolph's lack of confidence to throw contested passes
6. Something else
I think that there has been a lively discussion over the past few weeks about what the "root" of the Steelers passing woes have been. And I am honestly curious what your take is.
I think it would be cool if put helmet cameras on players. Especially QBs. I think it would be really interesting to see the field from their POV. It would probably give us so much more appreciation for seeing what “open” really means to an NFL QB and how difficult it is to hit that window.
It would also be fun to see the difference between the view of a short QB and a tall one. I’d love to see how Drew Brees’s vision works down to the field. Does he see over guys or is he always looking between linemen?
I will give him the year, but he looks to be a very average QB with a average arm at best. IMO, QB is still on the list of things the Steelers need.
Hater = Realist
To stay within the framework of your list, I think 6.5.4 and 2 in varying degrees.
6. Rudolph is a 2nd year QB, with no QB coach other than a guy that is honestly just somebody that was there to keep Ben Roethlisberger happy. I don't think he received much coaching and did better with working with somebody in the offseason.
4. yeah, I think they want him to manage the game and pare down the offense to something more simple for him to work with. That doesn't necessarily inspire confidence in his ability. Lets face it, the Steelers passing offense is built around Ben and its a lot of letting him throw back shoulder to WR on the outside when he likes a matchup, crossing patterns and deep shots up the sideline or seams. Its not about drawing up as many complimentary patterns and progressive reads as it was letting Ben identify matchups and isolating them.
5. Yeah, I think Dan Fouts is right in that completions become addictive for a young QB and he would rather complete the pass for a few yards at a time, instead of take a shot deeper and miss. There was a bunch formation on the left on Sunday, that Washington came across the middle and should have been the primary, but Rudolph checked down to Samuels in the left flat. That needs to be coached that the progressive read is the slant up the seam, the cross across the middle and the check down to the back, but I don't even think he got to the crossing WR.
2. much like I said in point 4, I think the offense was built around Ben isolating matchups that he liked and not about designing plays with progressive pass patterns and reads for the QB. Therefore if there is no AB to beat guys 1 on 1, or be double teamed to allow JuJu to get open, then there isn't a lot of guys open, but they may be open enough for an accurate throw and Rudolph's mechanics and footwork aren't leading to accuracy.
I honestly said in his draft year, that Rudolph doesn't move his feet well from read to read and then throws passes off platform with all arm and had a tendency to sail the ball. After working in the offseason with a coach on his footwork, he looked good in preseason with his footwork and a couple games, but when they basically took his manhood by running wildcat a whole game and not letting him throw the football even on some play action looks, he became more tentative. He also looks to be back in 2017 form with his footwork after the concussion. He needs a QB coach to remind him of his footwork, go thru his progressions and throw the football on time. Right now he looks like he is late getting thru his reads, not moving his feet in the direction of where he needs to throw and then throwing the football late with mostly arm action and not leg drive and hip rotation, which leads to off target and lack of velocity throws.
Its like building a house. You cant put the roof on if you haven't build solid foundation and walls. Right now Rudolph doesn't have solid foundation of footwork with his progression of reads and that needs to be corrected IMO, in order for him to be able to deliver the football on time with accuracy. IMO, The first throw on this video isn't the fault of Pouncey letting the rush get in the pocket as much as its Rudolph not moving his feet to square up to JuJu for a throw in the face of the rush. He hung the ball late and underneath for Howard to pick it, where as he saw JuJu open and if he drives the ball to the outside, he likely completes it or overthrows JuJu instead of Howard picking it. But the clown in the video just looks at the all 22 and says it was a bad decision.
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Perhaps, and I can understand your logic here. But, I still don't think that's the right term. The Steelers did move up, but I see it more in line with the idea that, "hey, it's not going to cost us a first round pick to take a flyer on a guy that really might be an answer for the next 10-15 years." I don't think we drafted him expecting him to be first round material otherwise we would have drafted him when he fell to us in the first round. Does that make sense? It does in my head but it's late and for some reason, it feels as though I'm talking in circles. Sorry about that.
So maybe, Rudolph is "back-up good"? Can beat vanilla defenses and/or second tier professional players but can not (at least right now) get it done against front line NFL players with a gameplan behind them?
Hopefully, the game slows down enough that he can not be trying to think about his mechanics, the play-call, the defense, and not turning the ball over on every single play.
I kind of get the impression that when he doesn't "think" it all comes together for him and he makes his best throws and plays. When he "thinks" he gets off timing, bad footwork, and it all goes a bit sideways.
I am starting to think that he may not develop into much as an NFL starter...
Patience???we are going to give R3 Mason 9 more games and no more!
What’s that?
He's better than backup good already. If Landry Jones was backup good, then Rudolph is already light years past that.
I'd at the moment call him a low-tier starter quality QB. He won't lose you the game but also won't win games on his arm.
Time will tell if he becomes better than that, but you make a good point. When he's not thinking and just plays, he makes some amazing plays. This gives me a little hope that once he gets more experience, he will be at least a pretty good QB. He does appear like he's thinking too much right now, the game hasn't slowed down for him yet.
I think he is a young QB that was productive in college, despite having some mechanics flaws and was correcting them in his first season as a backup. He then got pressed into duty and almost lead a comeback vs Seattle, then with a conservative gameplan against a tough SF defense he never tested their secondary in a tight game. I think the Bengals gameplan conveyed the message from his OC that he isn't ready for a full playbook and coming off that concussion he doesn't have the confidence he needs to have.
Right now, I think the problem that is holding things back is 1. maybe lingering effects of the concussion and lack of confidence. and :
Poor footwork = Poor location of the football = lack of confidence in throwing in tight windows for fear of INT/Incompletions.
Rudolph battled back with some completions to Washington, Johnson and JuJu, but none of them were "on the money" throws, so I think he is in his own head. Hopefully if he gets back to basics of footwork, he will be in a position to throw the ball on time and accurately, rather than late and inaccurately. The kid may be too much of a perfectionist right now and gripping it too tight, rather than focusing on some of the basics and just going out and playing football and either trusting his read and throwing the pass, or just throwing it away and getting onto the next play.
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Until I see a total meltdown in any one game, I am giving him the entire season to make up my mind on his potential. I'm convinced that Fichtner is doing a terrible job handling him - either limiting the game plan or not coaching him up - or both. At this point though, I need to see progress, not more dump-offs.
Progress will happen from Rudolph when the rest of the offense progresses. We all talk about Rudy holding the ball forever and being indecisive and we need to open the offense. Who is the guy we have who is going to open it up? Rudolph is throwing to fringe second-tier receivers at best.
The dump offs continue until our receivers start making plays consistently downfield. Ben had Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress. Peyton had Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. Tom Brady had Troy Brown and David Patton. Even Andy Dalton had A.J Green to throw to.
I am fully convinced that the First interception Sunday completely changed the complexity of the offense for the rest of the game. We saw that first drive. Mason was decisive. He took the shot on 3rd down. He hit the receiver right in the hands, and it’s a turnover. The Colts convert it into 3. If Juju doesn’t Moncrief that ball, the offense likely develops a rhythm perhaps. When our so-called “playmakers” can’t make plays downfield, what can the Quarterback do?
Last edited by Edman; 11-05-2019 at 08:09 PM.
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Below -- presented in alphabetical order -- is a list of seven top-tier quarterbacks who endured ignominious beginnings to their respective NFL careers:
Troy Aikman
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in 1989.
First start: Loss (28-0) to the Saints in Week 1 of 1989; 17 of 35 (48.6 percent) for 180 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, two sacks and a passer rating of 40.2.
Aikman -- whom I helped scout and draft -- was thrown right into the mix as a rookie. While he didn't seem lost or overwhelmed at all in that first game, he finished his first season -- which was interrupted by a broken finger that cost him five games -- with nine touchdowns against 18 interceptions while averaging just 5.9 yards per pass. Those are not very good numbers. In fact, it wasn't until his third year in the NFL that he managed to throw more touchdowns (11) than picks (10).
So what -- aside from playing for a team that finished 1-15 a year after going 3-13 -- held Aikman back in that first start and the rest of Year 1? I think, in general, a lot of rookie quarterbacks are surprised by the complexity of the game at the pro level and the sophistication of their opponents -- how well people disguise coverages and how effectively they exploit weaknesses. Even while he struggled, though, Aikman still threw a big ball and showed excellent accuracy. Norv Turner -- Aikman's offensive coordinator from 1991 to 1993 -- will tell you he's never seen a quarterback as accurate as this guy.
John Elway
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Baltimore Colts in 1983 (traded to Denver Broncos).
First start: Win (14-10) over the Steelers in Week 1 of 1983; 1 of 8 (12.5 percent) for 14 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, four sacks and a passer rating of 0.
Elway's debut was marred by an elbow injury that forced him out of the game, but his second start (9 of 21 for 106 yards, zero touchdowns and three sacks) wasn't much better. He went on to have a relatively rough rookie season -- 7:14 TD-to-INT ratio and 28 sacks in 11 games -- in which he was benched after three consecutive losses. But he also was part of a team that made the playoffs that year, and he ended up leading the Broncos to three Super Bowl appearances, five playoff berths and six winning seasons over the next nine years. Still, in many ways, the jury was still out on the quarterback, who threw just one more touchdown pass (158) than he did picks (157) from 1983 to 1992. He was kind of like a wild colt, so to speak, in that he would run around and scramble somewhat recklessly and make risky throws across his body.
In 1993, he seemed to turn a corner, and he really took off in 1995, when Mike Shanahan -- who spent two previous stints on Denver's staff during Elway's career -- became the Broncos' head coach. In the final four years of his career, Elway posted a record of 43-16, threw 101 touchdown passes against 49 picks and, of course, won two Super Bowls.
Andrew Luck
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 2012.
First start: Loss (41-21) to the Bears in Week 1 of 2012; 23 of 45 (51.1 percent) for 309 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, three sacks and a passer rating of 52.9.
Luck struggled some initially with the speed of the game and maybe tried to force the ball more than he should have. But he seemed to compress the normal timeframe of development for a rookie quarterback, bouncing back from a 1-2 start to lift Indy to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth. The Colts' relatively easy schedule and roster -- which, though it lacked some pieces, was better than what most No. 1 picks have to work with in Year 1 -- helped. But Luck also showed a knack for winning games, compiling seven game-winning drives as a rookie. It couldn't have hurt that his father, Oliver Luck, and his college coach, Jim Harbaugh, were both former NFL quarterbacks.
Peyton Manning
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 1998.
First start: Loss (24-15) to the Dolphins in Week 1 of 1998; 21 of 37 (56.8 percent) for 302 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, four sacks and a passer rating of 58.6.
Manning has, of course, become one of the premier quarterbacks in the game, earning 13 Pro Bowlnods and five MVP awards in 14 years with the Colts and two-plus years with the Denver Broncos. And though he set what was then a rookie record with 3,739 yards, he also went 3-13 in his first year with Indy -- and believe me when I tell you that a lot of people were asking whether he was good enough to hack it. In fact, after a less-than-stellar performance in a Week 5 victory over Ryan Leaf's Chargers that season, there were even some folks hollering that Indy should've taken Leaf instead of Manning with the first overall pick in the 1998 NFL Draft.
That Manning -- who was very well coached at Tennessee and has such a great understanding of the game -- stumbled out of the gate like that just illustrates how hard it is to start right away as a rookie, especially with the competitive balance being so great in the NFL. Of course, Manning was a tireless worker even then, and, with the help of assistant Tom Moore, grew into the all-time talent we know today.
Alex Smith
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the San Francisco 49ers in 2005.
First start: Loss (28-3) to the Colts in Week 5 of 2005; 9 of 23 (39.1 percent) for 74 yards, zero touchdowns, four interceptions, five sacks and a passer rating of 8.5.
Smith is very smart, but it took time for that to translate to the NFL gridiron. He had a horrifically bad rookie year, taking 29 sacks and throwing 11 picks in just nine games (seven starts) while posting a sub-40 passer rating four times. Smith didn't find the end zone until the final game of the season, a 20-17 win over Houston. He seemed reluctant to throw downfield and didn't break out of checkdown mode for years.
It wasn't that Smith, who was neck and neck with Aaron Rodgers in my pre-draft scouting as a prospect, lacked talent. I think a key factor was that he just didn't get as lucky as other guys did in terms of the kind of coaching he received as a rookie. When Jim Harbaugh arrived in 2011, he turned Smith into a good quarterback, and the signal-caller has continued to thrive with the Chiefs under Andy Reid. Just look at his numbers since '11: 38-15-1 record with a TD-to-INT ratio of 71:23.
Fran Tarkenton
Drafted: No. 29 overall (third round) by the Minnesota Vikings in 1961.
First start: Loss (21-7) to the Cowboysin Week 2 of 1961; 8 of 24 (33.3 percent) for 117 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, three sacks and a passer rating of 15.5.
Tarkenton's first official start paled in comparison to what he accomplished in his true debut the week before, when he came off the bench to complete 74 percent of his passes for 250 yards and contribute five touchdowns (four in the air and one on the ground) to a 37-13 win over the Bears -- the first ever victory for the Vikings franchise. The rest of his season was a bit rockier, as he went 2-8 in 10 starts while posting a TD-to-INT ratio of 18:17 over 14 games. He had mixed results over the next few years before being traded to the Giants in 1967. This, he recently told me in a conversation on the phone, is when he turned his career around, installing the offense himself and calling the plays in New York as a 27-year-old quarterback; he credits himself as being the person most responsible for his ascension.
After a successful stint in New York, Tarkenton was traded back to the Vikings in 1972 -- and proceeded to make the playoffs from 1973 to 1978, going on a run that included three Super Bowl appearances and saw him win the MVP award in 1975. He was a scrambler who overcame a lack of height -- he was 6 feet if you stretched him out -- and learned how to complement his scrambling ability with his arm.
Steve Young
Drafted: No. 1 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 1984 supplemental draft.First start: Win (19-16, OT) over the Lions in Week 12 of 1985; 16 of 27 (59.3 percent) for 167 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, six sacks and a passer rating of 77.2; 10 carries for 60 yards.
Young wasn't exactly a rookie when he entered the NFL, having spent two years with the Los Angeles Express of the USFL before going to Tampa Bay. Perhaps Young became used to the lesser competition he saw in his first pro league, because he struggled with the Bucs, compiling a record of 3-16 as a starter while throwing nearly twice as many interceptions (21) as he did touchdown passes (11). Tampa Bay shipped him to San Francisco for a second- and a fourth-round pick in 1987 -- laying the groundwork for his career to take off into the stratosphere.
Even that took time, of course, as Joe Montana was entrenched at quarterback when Young joined the Niners. But ultimately, coach Bill Walsh and his West Coast system shaped Young into the man who won two MVP awards and helped San Francisco score the third-most points in Super Bowl history in a 49-26 win over San Diego.
I totally appreciate your point, and I’m all for withholding judgement on Rudolph...Below -- presented in alphabetical order -- is a list of seven top-tier quarterbacks who endured ignominious beginnings to their respective NFL careers:
Troy Aikman
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Dallas Cowboys in 1989.
First start: Loss (28-0) to the Saints in Week 1 of 1989; 17 of 35 (48.6 percent) for 180 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, two sacks and a passer rating of 40.2.
Aikman -- whom I helped scout and draft -- was thrown right into the mix as a rookie. While he didn't seem lost or overwhelmed at all in that first game, he finished his first season -- which was interrupted by a broken finger that cost him five games -- with nine touchdowns against 18 interceptions while averaging just 5.9 yards per pass. Those are not very good numbers. In fact, it wasn't until his third year in the NFL that he managed to throw more touchdowns (11) than picks (10).
So what -- aside from playing for a team that finished 1-15 a year after going 3-13 -- held Aikman back in that first start and the rest of Year 1? I think, in general, a lot of rookie quarterbacks are surprised by the complexity of the game at the pro level and the sophistication of their opponents -- how well people disguise coverages and how effectively they exploit weaknesses. Even while he struggled, though, Aikman still threw a big ball and showed excellent accuracy. Norv Turner -- Aikman's offensive coordinator from 1991 to 1993 -- will tell you he's never seen a quarterback as accurate as this guy.
John Elway
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Baltimore Colts in 1983 (traded to Denver Broncos).
First start: Win (14-10) over the Steelers in Week 1 of 1983; 1 of 8 (12.5 percent) for 14 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception, four sacks and a passer rating of 0.
Elway's debut was marred by an elbow injury that forced him out of the game, but his second start (9 of 21 for 106 yards, zero touchdowns and three sacks) wasn't much better. He went on to have a relatively rough rookie season -- 7:14 TD-to-INT ratio and 28 sacks in 11 games -- in which he was benched after three consecutive losses. But he also was part of a team that made the playoffs that year, and he ended up leading the Broncos to three Super Bowl appearances, five playoff berths and six winning seasons over the next nine years. Still, in many ways, the jury was still out on the quarterback, who threw just one more touchdown pass (158) than he did picks (157) from 1983 to 1992. He was kind of like a wild colt, so to speak, in that he would run around and scramble somewhat recklessly and make risky throws across his body.
In 1993, he seemed to turn a corner, and he really took off in 1995, when Mike Shanahan -- who spent two previous stints on Denver's staff during Elway's career -- became the Broncos' head coach. In the final four years of his career, Elway posted a record of 43-16, threw 101 touchdown passes against 49 picks and, of course, won two Super Bowls.
Andrew Luck
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 2012.
First start: Loss (41-21) to the Bears in Week 1 of 2012; 23 of 45 (51.1 percent) for 309 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, three sacks and a passer rating of 52.9.
Luck struggled some initially with the speed of the game and maybe tried to force the ball more than he should have. But he seemed to compress the normal timeframe of development for a rookie quarterback, bouncing back from a 1-2 start to lift Indy to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth. The Colts' relatively easy schedule and roster -- which, though it lacked some pieces, was better than what most No. 1 picks have to work with in Year 1 -- helped. But Luck also showed a knack for winning games, compiling seven game-winning drives as a rookie. It couldn't have hurt that his father, Oliver Luck, and his college coach, Jim Harbaugh, were both former NFL quarterbacks.
Peyton Manning
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 1998.
First start: Loss (24-15) to the Dolphins in Week 1 of 1998; 21 of 37 (56.8 percent) for 302 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, four sacks and a passer rating of 58.6.
Manning has, of course, become one of the premier quarterbacks in the game, earning 13 Pro Bowlnods and five MVP awards in 14 years with the Colts and two-plus years with the Denver Broncos. And though he set what was then a rookie record with 3,739 yards, he also went 3-13 in his first year with Indy -- and believe me when I tell you that a lot of people were asking whether he was good enough to hack it. In fact, after a less-than-stellar performance in a Week 5 victory over Ryan Leaf's Chargers that season, there were even some folks hollering that Indy should've taken Leaf instead of Manning with the first overall pick in the 1998 NFL Draft.
That Manning -- who was very well coached at Tennessee and has such a great understanding of the game -- stumbled out of the gate like that just illustrates how hard it is to start right away as a rookie, especially with the competitive balance being so great in the NFL. Of course, Manning was a tireless worker even then, and, with the help of assistant Tom Moore, grew into the all-time talent we know today.
Alex Smith
Drafted: No. 1 overall by the San Francisco 49ers in 2005.
First start: Loss (28-3) to the Colts in Week 5 of 2005; 9 of 23 (39.1 percent) for 74 yards, zero touchdowns, four interceptions, five sacks and a passer rating of 8.5.
Smith is very smart, but it took time for that to translate to the NFL gridiron. He had a horrifically bad rookie year, taking 29 sacks and throwing 11 picks in just nine games (seven starts) while posting a sub-40 passer rating four times. Smith didn't find the end zone until the final game of the season, a 20-17 win over Houston. He seemed reluctant to throw downfield and didn't break out of checkdown mode for years.
It wasn't that Smith, who was neck and neck with Aaron Rodgers in my pre-draft scouting as a prospect, lacked talent. I think a key factor was that he just didn't get as lucky as other guys did in terms of the kind of coaching he received as a rookie. When Jim Harbaugh arrived in 2011, he turned Smith into a good quarterback, and the signal-caller has continued to thrive with the Chiefs under Andy Reid. Just look at his numbers since '11: 38-15-1 record with a TD-to-INT ratio of 71:23.
Fran Tarkenton
Drafted: No. 29 overall (third round) by the Minnesota Vikings in 1961.
First start: Loss (21-7) to the Cowboysin Week 2 of 1961; 8 of 24 (33.3 percent) for 117 yards, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, three sacks and a passer rating of 15.5.
Tarkenton's first official start paled in comparison to what he accomplished in his true debut the week before, when he came off the bench to complete 74 percent of his passes for 250 yards and contribute five touchdowns (four in the air and one on the ground) to a 37-13 win over the Bears -- the first ever victory for the Vikings franchise. The rest of his season was a bit rockier, as he went 2-8 in 10 starts while posting a TD-to-INT ratio of 18:17 over 14 games. He had mixed results over the next few years before being traded to the Giants in 1967. This, he recently told me in a conversation on the phone, is when he turned his career around, installing the offense himself and calling the plays in New York as a 27-year-old quarterback; he credits himself as being the person most responsible for his ascension.
After a successful stint in New York, Tarkenton was traded back to the Vikings in 1972 -- and proceeded to make the playoffs from 1973 to 1978, going on a run that included three Super Bowl appearances and saw him win the MVP award in 1975. He was a scrambler who overcame a lack of height -- he was 6 feet if you stretched him out -- and learned how to complement his scrambling ability with his arm.
Steve Young
Drafted: No. 1 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 1984 supplemental draft.First start: Win (19-16, OT) over the Lions in Week 12 of 1985; 16 of 27 (59.3 percent) for 167 yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, six sacks and a passer rating of 77.2; 10 carries for 60 yards.
Young wasn't exactly a rookie when he entered the NFL, having spent two years with the Los Angeles Express of the USFL before going to Tampa Bay. Perhaps Young became used to the lesser competition he saw in his first pro league, because he struggled with the Bucs, compiling a record of 3-16 as a starter while throwing nearly twice as many interceptions (21) as he did touchdown passes (11). Tampa Bay shipped him to San Francisco for a second- and a fourth-round pick in 1987 -- laying the groundwork for his career to take off into the stratosphere.
Even that took time, of course, as Joe Montana was entrenched at quarterback when Young joined the Niners. But ultimately, coach Bill Walsh and his West Coast system shaped Young into the man who won two MVP awards and helped San Francisco score the third-most points in Super Bowl history in a 49-26 win over San Diego.
But the list of mostly top draft picks with sky high ceilings who took awhile to get there doesn’t really tell me one thing or the other about Rudolph’s chances of being great.
If you made a list of QBs who got off to a less than stellar start and then went on to do nothing special in their careers, the list would be too long to read.
If anything Rudolph has to buck the odds to turn out great, especially given his less than incredible physical abilities.
I’m not making a prediction one way or the other, I’m just saying the list doesn’t indicate an obvious trajectory for him.
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