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Thread: Week 6 games

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    Senior Member Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute"> Born2Steel's Avatar

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    Week 6 games

    How can you not be wondering what is going to happen next with the Steelers? Week6 trip to the dreaded west coast for HUGE question mark of a game. Neither team playing well with numerous backups starting due to injuries. Some seasons you just have to lay back and see where the white water rapids steer the raft.

    49ers and Rams should be a good game to watch.

    Texans and Chiefs will be either a blow out or game of the season type bout.

    Eagle and Vikings should be a fun one.

    The rest look like a bunch of yawn fests. Can the Dolphins and Redskins end in a tie?

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Tampa vs Carolina could be interesting. Could see Tampa giving them a run for their money if McCaffery is a no go. Speaking of McCaffery that guy is fun as hell to watch. Would be great if Seattle can beat the Brahns. Baltimore is going 4-2. Who dey? Apparently everybody. The Bengals usually give the Ravens trouble, but this year? Not likely. The Bengals roster isn't devoid of talent, but they just have the look of a team that's already given up.

    Probably not watching any games until the SNF game, kinda excited to see what Duck Hodges can do

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Tampa vs Carolina is the London game this week? I’m not getting up earlier to watch that. But you’re right, it could be a good fun game.

    I think Russell Wilson is one of the most entertaining players in the league. I hope he trashes the Browns.

    ‘F’ the Ravens and the Bengals.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Seahawks @ Browns is an interesting game. Seahawks at 4-1 have been winning close games (Bengals, Steelers, Rams) as Russell Wilson is having a MVP level season while the Browns are reeling and could start to put Freddie Kitchens job in jeopardy with another bad performance at home.

    in the running for worst game of the year is Redskins@ Dolphins - other than playing the Jets in Miami later this season this looks like the best chance for the Dolphins (only 3&1/2 point underdogs ) to get a win

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Patriots benefiting from a bogus non-call? I'm shocked, I tell you, SHOCKED!

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    Re: Week 6 games

    This will be the week where we find out whether teams like DEN, NYJ, and CIN are destined for the 4-12 heap losing badly every time, or whether they have some fight in them. This could be an unprecedented year for the number of flat-out awful teams, which is great for betting.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    This will be the week where we find out whether teams like DEN, NYJ, and CIN are destined for the 4-12 heap losing badly every time, or whether they have some fight in them. This could be an unprecedented year for the number of flat-out awful teams, which is great for betting.
    I think it makes it easier to pick a winner for most games but point spreads still beat me. Blowout games can mean backups giving up late scores or teams taking their foot off the gas. Which to me makes it more difficult to bet on a team.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Born2Steel View Post
    I think it makes it easier to pick a winner for most games but point spreads still beat me. Blowout games can mean backups giving up late scores or teams taking their foot off the gas. Which to me makes it more difficult to bet on a team.
    The main thing that helps against the spread is identifying which are the truly awful teams versus the merely bad teams.

    A few years ago, I looked at every game for the past 20 years of any team that went 4-12 or worse. They only won against the spread about 30% of the time. Even if the spread was 20 points or more. It turns out the oddsmakers don't give enough points to the really bad teams, because they want people to bet evenly on both sides, and the amount of points that scares people away from betting is less than the amount of points that is the actual difference between the teams.

    It turned out this did not even change much from the first half of the season to the second half (when you would expect people have figured out who the bad teams are and adjusted the point spreads accordingly - no being caught by surprise like in the first few games.) It was still something like 68% of the time that the favored team beat the spread. And most of them were huge spreads, like 10-15 points, sometimes even more.

    So basically, the earlier you can determine the three or four worst teams, the more bets you can get out there against them. The catch is that the formula falls apart above the 4-12 mark. So if you are betting against a team that you think is one of the worst teams, but actually it turns out they were just a 5-11 team or a 6-10 team, then that's how you get into trouble. And the other catch is that it doesn't work when two 4-12 teams play each other, you just can't bet that game (like MIA-WAS this week).

    I think it's beyond a doubt that Miami is in the 4-12 category, and Washington is a near lock as well. There are probably one or two more among Denver, Cincinnati, and the Jets ... NYJ and the Bungles seem like the ones that just do not have their shit together at all and are going mental, but I am not 100% sure about Denver. Not quite sold on Atlanta being one either.

    This could be a really good year for it if there end up being 5 or 6 teams who suck that bad - the problem being that most of them are in one conference, so they'll play each other a lot too.

    By the way, this is by no means foolproof for making big bets on any one game - just if you get the most medium-sized bets out on a large number of games over time, you should win more than you lose.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    The main thing that helps against the spread is identifying which are the truly awful teams versus the merely bad teams.

    A few years ago, I looked at every game for the past 20 years of any team that went 4-12 or worse. They only won against the spread about 30% of the time. Even if the spread was 20 points or more. It turns out the oddsmakers don't give enough points to the really bad teams, because they want people to bet evenly on both sides, and the amount of points that scares people away from betting is less than the amount of points that is the actual difference between the teams.

    It turned out this did not even change much from the first half of the season to the second half (when you would expect people have figured out who the bad teams are and adjusted the point spreads accordingly - no being caught by surprise like in the first few games.) It was still something like 68% of the time that the favored team beat the spread. And most of them were huge spreads, like 10-15 points, sometimes even more.

    So basically, the earlier you can determine the three or four worst teams, the more bets you can get out there against them. The catch is that the formula falls apart above the 4-12 mark. So if you are betting against a team that you think is one of the worst teams, but actually it turns out they were just a 5-11 team or a 6-10 team, then that's how you get into trouble. And the other catch is that it doesn't work when two 4-12 teams play each other, you just can't bet that game (like MIA-WAS this week).

    I think it's beyond a doubt that Miami is in the 4-12 category, and Washington is a near lock as well. There are probably one or two more among Denver, Cincinnati, and the Jets ... NYJ and the Bungles seem like the ones that just do not have their shit together at all and are going mental, but I am not 100% sure about Denver. Not quite sold on Atlanta being one either.

    This could be a really good year for it if there end up being 5 or 6 teams who suck that bad - the problem being that most of them are in one conference, so they'll play each other a lot too.

    By the way, this is by no means foolproof for making big bets on any one game - just if you get the most medium-sized bets out on a large number of games over time, you should win more than you lose.
    That is a very interesting system. I’m not really a sports gambler other than those office bragging rights kind but I think I’m interested enough to track this play. Thanks for that.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by Born2Steel View Post
    That is a very interesting system. I’m not really a sports gambler other than those office bragging rights kind but I think I’m interested enough to track this play. Thanks for that.
    I should add to this: At the START of the season, the money line, not the spread, is where to look ... the first few weeks, there will be a lot of games with like 3-to-1 odds when it's not clear yet who's any good and who's not. Then once that picture starts solidifying, this part takes over.

    I am not a huge gambler either, mostly I just make small bets of like $20 or $50 here and there for a little excitement and to see if I can beat the system, lol. But I don't like losing, so the sports book and blackjack are about it for me.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Week 6 games

    SI.com (or what is left of it after half the staff was laid off last week) is brimming with enthusiasm for Washington at Miami

    How We Arrived at One of the Worst Games in Modern NFL History

    On the surface, Sunday’s matchup between 0–4 Miami and 0–5 Washington feels like a game full of sadness that no one should be watching. But a deeper dive reveals this game speaks volumes about both teams—these two franchises have ignored deepening cracks and missed on hefty free-agency spends.

    https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/11/wa...less-nfl-teams

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by AtlantaDan View Post
    SI.com (or what is left of it after half the staff was laid off last week) is brimming with enthusiasm for Washington at Miami

    How We Arrived at One of the Worst Games in Modern NFL History

    On the surface, Sunday’s matchup between 0–4 Miami and 0–5 Washington feels like a game full of sadness that no one should be watching. But a deeper dive reveals this game speaks volumes about both teams—these two franchises have ignored deepening cracks and missed on hefty free-agency spends.

    https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/10/11/wa...less-nfl-teams
    The Tua bowl?

    Honestly I think the Redskins will take the W. Miami is possibly the worst team in the history of the league. The Redskins are bad, but Miami looks historically bad.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Games available on my TV tomorrow prior to Sunday night

    Seattle @ Cleveland: This actually is interesting. Can Cleveland get it together or will Seattle continue to surprise?

    The other two games however suck

    Ravens vs Bengals: You want to watch the Bengals continue to deficate all over themselves on a football while the media fawns over Lamar Jackson as the Bungals make him look better than he really is because the media can't help but slobber over fast QBs that show any ability? Then this is the game for you. Want to watch real football? You may be out of luck

    Then the 2nd half despite the fact that Rams 49ers are playing which is a pivotal game in the NFC West and NFL, a barometer game for both teams we get stuck with just Cowboys vs Jets: A game only Cowboys fans want to see. Watch as the Cowboys feast on the Jets anemic offense while Le'Veon Bell further exposes himself as the system player not capable of carrying an offense he is.

    yay...

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    The main thing that helps against the spread is identifying which are the truly awful teams versus the merely bad teams.

    A few years ago, I looked at every game for the past 20 years of any team that went 4-12 or worse. They only won against the spread about 30% of the time. Even if the spread was 20 points or more. It turns out the oddsmakers don't give enough points to the really bad teams, because they want people to bet evenly on both sides, and the amount of points that scares people away from betting is less than the amount of points that is the actual difference between the teams.

    It turned out this did not even change much from the first half of the season to the second half (when you would expect people have figured out who the bad teams are and adjusted the point spreads accordingly - no being caught by surprise like in the first few games.) It was still something like 68% of the time that the favored team beat the spread. And most of them were huge spreads, like 10-15 points, sometimes even more.

    So basically, the earlier you can determine the three or four worst teams, the more bets you can get out there against them. The catch is that the formula falls apart above the 4-12 mark. So if you are betting against a team that you think is one of the worst teams, but actually it turns out they were just a 5-11 team or a 6-10 team, then that's how you get into trouble. And the other catch is that it doesn't work when two 4-12 teams play each other, you just can't bet that game (like MIA-WAS this week).

    I think it's beyond a doubt that Miami is in the 4-12 category, and Washington is a near lock as well. There are probably one or two more among Denver, Cincinnati, and the Jets ... NYJ and the Bungles seem like the ones that just do not have their shit together at all and are going mental, but I am not 100% sure about Denver. Not quite sold on Atlanta being one either.

    This could be a really good year for it if there end up being 5 or 6 teams who suck that bad - the problem being that most of them are in one conference, so they'll play each other a lot too.

    By the way, this is by no means foolproof for making big bets on any one game - just if you get the most medium-sized bets out on a large number of games over time, you should win more than you lose.
    That is pretty smart theory and I would also be curious to how many times the Pats cover the spread each season ? I would think about 10 out of 16 games. I hate them but could be some easy money taking them each week.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue View Post
    That is pretty smart theory and I would also be curious to how many times the Pats cover the spread each season ? I would think about 10 out of 16 games. I hate them but could be some easy money taking them each week.
    This year, I would imagine they are beating the spread almost every week, and it seems like they get a lot of one-sided wins overall. But that would require rooting for the Patriots for the entire season, and I would rather just go down to a horse track and roll around in shit all day. Just take them over the Jets and Dolphins and collect your easy 3 out of 4 (or 4 out of 4) and call it a day with that.

    One thing that was also clear: The reverse of that strategy does not work betting on the highest winning teams of like 12-4 and above. For one thing, it's difficult to tell which ones they are until late in the season, and I guess there is not as much separation between the teams at the top and the middle as there is between the teams in the middle and the very bottom. There's a ceiling but no floor.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    This year, I would imagine they are beating the spread almost every week, and it seems like they get a lot of one-sided wins overall. But that would require rooting for the Patriots for the entire season, and I would rather just go down to a horse track and roll around in shit all day. Just take them over the Jets and Dolphins and collect your easy 3 out of 4 (or 4 out of 4) and call it a day with that.

    One thing that was also clear: The reverse of that strategy does not work betting on the highest winning teams of like 12-4 and above. For one thing, it's difficult to tell which ones they are until late in the season, and I guess there is not as much separation between the teams at the top and the middle as there is between the teams in the middle and the very bottom. There's a ceiling but no floor.
    I would not root for the Pats and won't watch the games and just bet the same amount each week. Then at the end of the season see how much money I made.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Watching the Bengals vs Ravens and haha Lamar Jackson rip off a 40 yard run with 10 seconds left in the half. He didn't think to get out of bounds for a field goal try.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Following Chiefs-Texans online. Texans up 31-24. No way the Chiefs beat the Patriots this year, especially considering their defense hasn't improved from last year

    - - - Updated - - -

    Browns up 28-25

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Texans win 31-24, Chiefs lose 2 in a row at home.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Dolphins down 17-16 with PAT coming up go for 2 but fail. Redskins win 17-16.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Seattle up by 4 with little over three minutes to go on the Browns. Browns have the ball.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    Texans win 31-24, Chiefs lose 2 in a row at home.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Dolphins down 17-16 with PAT coming up go for 2 but fail. Redskins win 17-16.
    Lol Dolphins want that 1 pick of the draft bad.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Mayfield throws a pick off the hands of Hilliard. Bad back shoulder throw by Mayfield and goes right into the hands of KJ Wright...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Week 6 games

    INT for Mayfield and that should be it for the Browns.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Still hope for the Brownies if they can hold Seattle to a FG.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Browns fans throwing shit who hit a security worker, I don't believe that lol.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    The officiating sucks in this game...... as it does in all the games.

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Where do Stains fans order their world champion shorts for their parade????

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    Following Chiefs-Texans online. Texans up 31-24. No way the Chiefs beat the Patriots this year, especially considering their defense hasn't improved from last year

    - - - Updated - - -

    Browns up 28-25
    You mean to tell me the Chiefs started out the year looking unbeatable, then weren't as good as everybody thought? Well I for one am SHOCKED - this has got to be the first time they've ever done that.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Week 6 games

    I was really hoping Miami would have won so the 1 pick for Tomlin would be better.

  28. #28
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    Re: Week 6 games

    J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets lol.

    They will lose this lead but screw the Crygurls

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  29. #29
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    Re: Week 6 games

    49ers up 14-7

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    Re: Week 6 games

    Quote Originally Posted by st33lersguy View Post
    49ers up 14-7
    49ers have a good team and my pick to be in the SB this year in the NFC.

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