Goats vs Ravens

[Shoes]

IMO Hodges should have recovered that fumble. He actions and movement were it's an incomplete pass. OT game his a$$ should have been all over that ball.

[steelreserve]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

"Just because you dont understand," says the person who doesn't understand.

I UNDERSTAND exactly what he did, it was just terrible logic on his part. It is the same as sitting down at a dice game and saying "well, a 7 hasn't come up in a while, surely that means the odds are increased that a 7 will come up on the next roll." But no, the odds are exactly the same every roll.

Like ... you kick the ball and get a defensive stop, great. You take the ball, don't score, and then get a defensive stop, just as good. All that happened by "winning" the gamble was getting back to where we were in the first place. It is unbelievable to me that people do not comprehend that simple fact.

It's like a bet where if you win, I pay you $100, and if I win, you don't have to pay me anything. Incredible that people are actually defending that. The mental gymnastics on display are just too much.

[AtlantaDan]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

Tomlin gives another reason

Video of this would be interesting - Tomlin seems to be pretty agitated

[pczach]

But. But. I wanna be angry and refuse to acknowledge it is possible to do everything correct decision wise and still lose.

The team is playing with its third-string QB.

They only have a running back as an emergency QB if there is an injury to him.

The defense was dominating more and more as the game went on.

They had already intercepted 3 of Jackson's passes on the day, and held him to 19/28 for 161 yards 1 TD 3 INT with a rating of 54.9.

I understand people wanting to get the ball first, but I agreed with the call in real time while watching the game. Tomlin's logic made sense. He didn't want to put everything on his undrafted rookie quarterback and decided to lean on a defense that was controlling the game. That is completely understandable and logical.

McDonald was on the sideline banged up at the end of regulation. James Washington was ruled out for the rest of the game.

If fans can't see all of that, and want to scream into the wind, I don't know what to tell people. They are entitled to their opinion, but even when the results say the coach was exactly right in what he did....they say it was a lucky move and that he was wrong.

Once again, they try to make everything fit the narrative they have created. Mike Tomlin sucks, so his decision had to be wrong. Even though he's coaching a team with a third-string quarterback and a bunch of injuries that outplayed a division rival and a team everyone who hates Tomlin says is far better than them. Yet even knowing that, they still insist that Tomlin sucks and all his decisions are wrong.

You can't make this shit up.

[Steeldude]

Tom Brady for being such a whiny bitch that they made a rule after it, and that rule being misapplied 10 years later to cost us a nearly certain kneel-down victory.

Juju for not holding on to the damn ball.

Tomlin's decision to defer in overtime was possibly the dumbest mistake I have ever seen made by a football coach at any level. That was so bad he literally should have been fired before the kickoff of overtime. You never, EVER voluntarily give the opponent a chance to win with one score without you even touching the ball. Even though that's not what happened, you don't give them that chance. Especially when you can get that advantage yourself just by saying "ok." What a stupid, stupid, stupid idiot.

I wasn't surprised at all. I told my friend watching the game that he shouldn't be surprised if Tomlin defers. It's classic Tomlin.

[vader29]

Tomlin gives another reason

Video of this would be interesting - Tomlin seems to be pretty agitated

[Born2Steel]

"Just because you dont understand," says the person who doesn't understand.

I UNDERSTAND exactly what he did, it was just terrible logic on his part. It is the same as sitting down at a dice game and saying "well, a 7 hasn't come up in a while, surely that means the odds are increased that a 7 will come up on the next roll." But no, the odds are exactly the same every roll.

Like ... you kick the ball and get a defensive stop, great. You take the ball, don't score, and then get a defensive stop, just as good. All that happened by "winning" the gamble was getting back to where we were in the first place. It is unbelievable to me that people do not comprehend that simple fact.

It's like a bet where if you win, I pay you $100, and if I win, you don't have to pay me anything. Incredible that people are actually defending that. The mental gymnastics on display are just too much.

Apparently you don't.

[Rotorhead]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

How was it a gamble? We have to score on offense and make a stop either way?

[steelreserve]

The team is playing with its third-string QB.

They only have a running back as an emergency QB if there is an injury to him.

The defense was dominating more and more as the game went on.

They had already intercepted 3 of Jackson's passes on the day, and held him to 19/28 for 161 yards 1 TD 3 INT with a rating of 54.9.

I understand people wanting to get the ball first, but I agreed with the call in real time while watching the game. Tomlin's logic made sense. He didn't want to put everything on his undrafted rookie quarterback and decided to lean on a defense that was controlling the game. That is completely understandable and logical.

McDonald was on the sideline banged up at the end of regulation. James Washington was ruled out for the rest of the game.

If fans can't see all of that, and want to scream into the wind, I don't know what to tell people. They are entitled to their opinion, but even when the results say the coach was exactly right in what he did....they say it was a lucky move and that he was wrong.

Once again, they try to make everything fit the narrative they have created. Mike Tomlin sucks, so his decision had to be wrong. Even though he's coaching a team with a third-string quarterback and a bunch of injuries that outplayed a division rival and a team everyone who hates Tomlin says is far better than them. Yet even knowing that, they still insist that Tomlin sucks and all his decisions are wrong.

You can't make this shit up.

Like ... ok, Tomlin gave a reason, and it was a stupid reason.

Do you understand that deferring didn't actually work in our favor at all? It didn't help anything. Not a thing. We got the ball and we turned it over and lost. Oh, but we got a defensive stop first, whoopty fucking doo. That counts for a whole lot of nothing.

- - - Updated - - -

Apparently you don't.

no u

[AtlantaDan]

vader29 - thanks for the video on the explanation for electing to kick rather than receive

Yep - Tomlin was pretty agitated

[stillers4me]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

Ding ding ding!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Mojouw]

It was actually a strong coaching move. Bet on your defense and gain 20 yards of field position.

If you take the kick start at the 10-15 and then punt, Tucker is basically in range on first down.

[Born2Steel]

It was actually a strong coaching move. Bet on your defense and gain 20 yards of field position.

If you take the kick start at the 10-15 and then punt, Tucker is basically in range on first down.

Exactly. The better move was to gamble on the defense to stop the Ravens rather than risk having to make Hodges lead the team 60-80 yards. (IMO)

[steelreserve]

It was actually a strong coaching move. Bet on your defense and gain 20 yards of field position.

If you take the kick start at the 10-15 and then punt, Tucker is basically in range on first down.

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning for deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards if it has good field position, but no more than that and no less, and it will not gain any yards at all if it has different field position(?). That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That our punt is going to put us in bad field position and the Ravens' punt will put us in good field position. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.

[pczach]

Like ... ok, Tomlin gave a reason, and it was a stupid reason.

Do you understand that deferring didn't actually work in our favor at all? It didn't help anything. Not a thing. We got the ball and we turned it over and lost. Oh, but we got a defensive stop first, whoopty fucking doo. That counts for a whole lot of nothing.

- - - Updated - - -



no u

I posted all those facts about the game, but you ignore all those facts to state that deferring didn't actually work in our favor at all.

To answer your question. No, I don't agree with your assessment that deferring didn't work in our favor at all.

If the Steelers took the kickoff, they would have had to score a touchdown to end the game. If they kicked a field goal, the Ravens would have had a chance to get the ball with a chance to tie or win the game. If the Steelers didn't score, the Ravens probably get good field position and win with a field goal with a kicker that thinks a 58 yarder is a gimme.

By deferring, the Ravens had to score a touchdown to end the game. They didn't end the game. In fact, Tomlin's decision to put the defense on the field worked perfectly.

When the Steelers got the ball back, they only had to score a field goal to win the game outright. They got better field position than they would have if they received a kickoff. So it did work in our favor. They didn't have to go the entire length of the field with an undrafted rookie 3rd string quarterback and being down two more offensive weapons at the end or regulation...... and get in the end zone.

To say it didn't work in our favor at all is such a simplification that it totally ignores everything that says otherwise. Everything I just stated shows how it flipped the odds if the defense did their jobs...and they did. It put everything in our favor to win once the defense got off the field. To say otherwise says that you just don't want to see it.

It's the equivalent of saying: "Yeah, I know all those factors existed and are true, but it doesn't have anything to do with my decision because I said so."

I don't understand how you can think about everything I stated here, and just act as if it is irrelevant in the decision-making process. You also ignore what actually happened after the coin toss, and the defense held them and they got the ball back and only needed a field goal to win. It clearly tipped everything in favor of the Steelers at that point, and they were in the driver's seat at that moment.

There are plenty of things that we can question Mike Tomlin and the coaching staff about...but this isn't one of them to me.

[RunNGun]

Tom Brady for being such a whiny bitch that they made a rule after it, and that rule being misapplied 10 years later to cost us a nearly certain kneel-down victory.

Juju for not holding on to the damn ball.

Tomlin's decision to defer in overtime was possibly the dumbest mistake I have ever seen made by a football coach at any level. That was so bad he literally should have been fired before the kickoff of overtime. You never, EVER voluntarily give the opponent a chance to win with one score without you even touching the ball. Even though that's not what happened, you don't give them that chance. Especially when you can get that advantage yourself just by saying "ok." What a stupid, stupid, stupid idiot.

Disagree with this. I thought it was a bold, but excellent decision. The defense was stout the hole game, plus the wind was going to be tricky for a fg kick. You saw how Tucker barely snuck that ball in to tie it up. They wanted to play field position and they almost executed it to perfection. Love the kid, but Juju has to hang onto that ball. If he does I believe we win this game.

[pczach]

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning for deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards, but no more than that and no less. That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That our punt is going to put us in bad field position and the Ravens' punt will put us in good field position. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.

So if they took the kickoff and fumbled the completed pass on first down, the game was over right there because the Ravens would have only needed a field goal to win there too. Are you trying not to see that point?

[RunNGun]

Well put PCzach. That's exactly my thinking of that strategy.

[Mojouw]

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning fir deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards, but no more than that and no less. That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.

You are wrong on this one. I don't know how else anyone can lay it out.

The Steelers start after kicks was something like the 10 yard line. Instead they got it at their own 32.

He also is excellent at doing that pop-up kick that forces you to field it between the 5 and the 10.

In what world is it a good idea to give your UDFA rookie 3rd string QB the ball at roughly the 15 or so and be like, "Good Luck".

[stillers4me]

I don't even call it fumble. He didn't drop the ball. It was a good defensive move that punched the ball out. If one of our guys had done it, he'd be the hero of the game.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[RunNGun]

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning for deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards if it has good field position, but no more than that and no less, and it will not gain any yards at all if it has different field position(?). That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That our punt is going to put us in bad field position and the Ravens' punt will put us in good field position. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.

So you think our chances were greater to March down the field against the wind and score a TD or FG versus possibly stopping the Ravens or holding them to a field goal and then playing with the wind to kick an easier fg or score a TD. It was a bold strategy, but the right strategy. The wind and field position is a huge factor at Heinz Field.

[Mojouw]

I will have to think on this one for a day or so, but I agree with the poster who said there might not be a goat, even in a loss.

I will say that I may be being proved totally wrong about Hodges. He looked decisive and accurate today. If that continues, he may be able to put something together.

If Juju hangs on to that (and stillers4me is correct, it was a good play by Humprhey) -- the Steelers likely win and everyone is on here talking about how great of a team win it was. Hell, if that ball bounces 3 more inches to the right and goes out of bounds, same thing.

Now, it is all about how everyone is a moron and doesn't play hard enough, etc. etc. etc.

[steelreserve]

You are wrong on this one. I don't know how else anyone can lay it out.

The Steelers start after kicks was something like the 10 yard line. Instead they got it at their own 32.

He also is excellent at doing that pop-up kick that forces you to field it between the 5 and the 10.

In what world is it a good idea to give your UDFA rookie 3rd string QB the ball at roughly the 15 or so and be like, "Good Luck".

I don't know, the world where you assume that you have the ability to get a first down or two, and that your punter can punt, and that if your defense is so great, it can hold the opponent whether they start from their own 35-yard line or their 25 ... Basically, all the assumptions that you would have to make in order to justify deferring add up to, "the rest of our team is so incompetent that we are going to lose the game no matter what."

Tomlin won the first part of the gamble and that's all people care about. They don't get that there were like four other bets that all had to go his way and at least one of them didn't, so it was a lost gamble.

It's like having a five-step math problem, and doing the first two steps and saying "That's the answer," and then when it turns out you're off by a factor of 100, you just get mad.

[Mojouw]

I don't know, the world where you assume that you have the ability to get a first down or two, and that your punter can punt, and that if your defense is so great, it can hold the opponent whether they start from their own 35-yard line or their 25 ... Basically, all the assumptions that you would have to make in order to justify deferring add up to, "the rest of our team is so incompetent that we are going to lose the game no matter what."

Tomlin won the first part of the gamble and that's all people care about. They don't get that there were like four other bets that all had to go his way and at least one of them didn't, so it was a lost gamble.

It's like having a five-step math problem, and doing the first two steps and saying "That's the answer," and then when it turns out you're off by a factor of 100, you just get mad.

Ok. So we now are living in a world where teams do not battle for field position constantly throughout games and seasons? Good to know. You may want to let the NFL, college, and high-school squads know that field position is no longer a factor in decision making because it involves too many other things paying off at the same time to work.

Congrats on revolutionizing football.

[pczach]

I don't know, the world where you assume that you have the ability to get a first down or two, and that your punter can punt, and that if your defense is so great, it can hold the opponent whether they start from their own 35-yard line or their 25 ... Basically, all the assumptions that you would have to make in order to justify deferring add up to, "the rest of our team is so incompetent that we are going to lose the game no matter what."

Tomlin won the first part of the gamble and that's all people care about. They don't get that there were like four other bets that all had to go his way and at least one of them didn't, so it was a lost gamble.

It's like having a five-step math problem, and doing the first two steps and saying "That's the answer," and then when it turns out you're off by a factor of 100, you just get mad.

But for some people it is also like doing a math problem while ignoring several of the factors that are used to solve the problem.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

We all want the same result....a win. We are all just as disappointed in the loss.

[steelreserve]

So you think our chances were greater to March down the field against the wind and score a TD or FG versus possibly stopping the Ravens or holding them to a field goal and then playing with the wind to kick an easier fg or score a TD.

Yes. When the rules are in your favor to the extent that they are for the first possession of overtime, that is such a huge advantage that it outweighs all of what you just said. Which is basically just a lot of worst-case assumptions anyway.

It was a bold strategy, but the right strategy.

Clearly, it was not. I'm basing my argument on the outcome of the game. What are you basing yours on? Oh yeah, thats right, a bunch of what-ifs.

[RunNGun]

I will have to think on this one for a day or so, but I agree with the poster who said there might not be a goat, even in a loss.

I will say that I may be being proved totally wrong about Hodges. He looked decisive and accurate today. If that continues, he may be able to put something together.

If Juju hangs on to that (and stillers4me is correct, it was a good play by Humprhey) -- the Steelers likely win and everyone is on here talking about how great of a team win it was. Hell, if that ball bounces 3 more inches to the right and goes out of bounds, same thing.

Now, it is all about how everyone is a moron and doesn't play hard enough, etc. etc. etc.

I like our talent at the QB position. Hodges is cool, calm, and collected dude. I like his confidence. What I don't like is our chances of getting back to .500 with Hodges as our QB for +or- 3 games.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

You can say Juju if you want but there was a whole lot more that came into that loss. Play calling for one. Deep in your own territory and you have your RB throwing a pass on 1st down??? WTF was that??? Next time you call it on 2nd and 1 from deep in your territory??? Get the Freakin' 1st down and then get the damn TD. That is purely a stupid coaching call and cost us points both times we ran it. STUPID!!!

Now with the game on the line the Refs called a Bullshit roughing the passer cal. Totally hosed us when we most likely could have won the game from that point.

Goats - Play calling on Offense and Refs Special teams didn't do much either so I don't blame Tomlin for his O.T. call.

Heros's Both Rudolph and Hodges, T.J. and the D over all.

I agree. Both guys at QB had good days passing the football. It make the decision to let your RB throw the football from his own 10 yard line a complete playcalling mystery/nightmare for me.

[Mojouw]

I like our talent at the QB position. Hodges is cool, calm, and collected dude. I like his confidence. What I don't like is our chances of getting back to .500 with Hodges as our QB for +or- 3 games.

Same.

Despite the outcome of the 2019 season, the FO deserves some kudos for going from Landry Jones and nothing a few years ago to Rudolph and Hodges. While I am not yet able to tell if either of them is "starter" material, they are certain far better back-up options than the Steelers have had in a long time.

[stillers4me]