Originally Posted by
steelreserve
Sometimes betting is more about seeing what everyone else bets on and jacks up the odds, than about who's actually the stronger team.
Like, I think Baltimore is more likely to win that game, but are they almost three times as likely? Not unless they're playing a guaranteed last-place 4-12 team.
Having said that, I also took the Chargers -15.5 over the Dolphins. I don't actually like that bet very much, but historically over the last 20 years, if you can figure out who is going to be among the worst 3 or 4 teams in the league, you will win 70% of the time betting against them no matter what the spread is, even if it's 20 points or more. And Miami is DEFINITELY going to be one of those - rare that you can figure it out so early.