2018 Running Game

[Mojouw]

There has been a great deal of spirited discussion here about frequency of run play calls, run/pass balance, etc. But here are some interesting numbers I came across. I have to admit I got the idea from Dave Bryan and the Steelers Depot podcast (I think the July 5th episode). Despite the individual statistical achievements and awards of Conner and the offensive line, the Steelers rushing attack was league average at best last season from a success/efficiency standpoint. To make this an honest comparison, I will admit I am having trouble finding comparable rankings for the passing game. I will keep trying.

So looking at just Conner, we have about the 20th most "successful" RB in the league per play (most places define success somewhere along these lines: A play is successful when it gains at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down.). The table is here: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

Similar analysis and numbers are also here: https://www.footballperspective.com/...-success-rate/

Here we see that as a team, the Steelers only ranked almost exactly in the middle in rushing success rate: https://www.footballperspective.com/...e-and-defense/
Interestingly enough, despite what it feels like, they were really effective at stopping the run: https://www.footballperspective.com/...e-and-defense/

If you want to really get into this sort of thing, you can waste hours on this tool trying different combinations of variables: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/p...ate--off-.html It does seem that when the team had 6 or less yards to gain, they were far more effective than not running the ball. So perhaps the entire thing is skewed by too many runs in poor down and distance situations -- which is kind of the point of the stat....

This table (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol) seems to say that the offensive line was about 19th or so in the run game and Conner was about 15th or so. To take a bit of look compare Adjusted yards to open field (A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.). What the offensive line excelled at in 2019 was short yardage (power in the table) and not getting Conner stuffed at or behind the line. Also, they were almost unbelievable good at pass blocking.

ANYWAYS -- here is my question: Were the 2018 Steelers a poor running team? If so why?

I think they were a mediocre running team and the reason was Conner was inexperienced. The lack of "stuffs" and the success in "power" seems to indicate the line is doing a fairly solid job of providing Conner with holes. I suspect that like ANY rookie RB (which Conner essentially was) he needed more NFL level experience about how and when to hit what holes in the running game. I am interested to see if there is a significant improvement in this upcoming season. But I do think this COULD mean there was a reason in addition to rarely consistently having big leads that the running game was not leaned on more heavily in 2018.

I suspect many will not care for all the fancy schmancy "analytics" but I thought I would share.

[polamalubeast]

No doubt, the running game needs to be better and the key to that, what the steelers did not do last year, is to keep Conner fresh and play his backup more often. But the success of the steelers will still depend on Roethlisberger and also the defense ..... Even when the steelers had Bell, the steelers were better when they were relying on Roethlisberger ... The only exception was of course in the second half of the season in 2016 where the steelers were relying a lot on Bell because of our lack of weapons after Brown in our WR.

But to come back for our running game, the success / efficiency is so much an overrated stats !!

I mean, back in 2017 Fournette killed the steelers in both game (even if we take out the 90 yard run by Fournette in the garbage time in the first game) but his success / efficiency was not so good against us, but nobody can to say who did not kill our defense in both games ... It was a nightmare

He has a lot of other examples on that too but I do not like this stats.

[Mojouw]

No doubt, the running game needs to be better and the key to that, what the steelers did not do last year, is to keep Conner fresh and play his backup more often. But the success of the steelers will still depend on Roethlisberger and also the defense ..... Even when the steelers had Bell, the steelers were better when they were relying on Roethlisberger ... The only exception was of course in the second half of the season in 2016 where the steelers were relying a lot on Bell because of our lack of weapons after Brown in our WR.

But to come back for our running game, the success / efficiency is so much an overrated stats !!

I mean, back in 2017 Fournette killed the steelers in both game (even if we take out the 90 yard run by Fournette in the garbage time in the first game) but his success / efficiency was not so good against us, but nobody can to say who did not kill our defense in both games ... It was a nightmare

He has a lot of other examples on that too but I do not like this stats.

Are we sure about that? I mean the regular season game there was a clinching late touchdown and a brutal march in on a short field after a 2nd quarter INT but the rest was punts and field goals despite Fournette. 21 of Jacksonville's 3 points were off INTs or the one late 90 yarder. Fournette was not why the Jags won or the Steelers lost. That was all on turnovers. In the playoff game, Fournette was devastating and seemed to get yards in key spots at will. We have discussed how the Shazier less defense was overmatched that day forever.

It isn't the world's best stat - none are. But the data seems to indicate that on a per play basis, the Steelers 2018 run game was simply average. What it was really good at was red zone rushing and short yardage. Hopefully they can build from there and be more effective on early downs and early in games.

[polamalubeast]

Are we sure about that? I mean the regular season game there was a clinching late touchdown and a brutal march in on a short field after a 2nd quarter INT but the rest was punts and field goals despite Fournette. 21 of Jacksonville's 3 points were off INTs or the one late 90 yarder. Fournette was not why the Jags won or the Steelers lost. That was all on turnovers. In the playoff game, Fournette was devastating and seemed to get yards in key spots at will. We have discussed how the Shazier less defense was overmatched that day forever.

It isn't the world's best stat - none are. But the data seems to indicate that on a per play basis, the Steelers 2018 run game was simply average. What it was really good at was red zone rushing and short yardage. Hopefully they can build from there and be more effective on early downs and early in games.

The Jaguars had no passing game in the regular season game against the steelers .... Of course, Roethlisberger was the reason why the steelers lost, but in the second quarter, the jaguars had a 7-8 minute drive that started inside from their 10 yard line and for the most part it was only rushing play ... I know the jaguars did not score in this drive, but it was because of their lack of passing game ... it was still a killer for the steelers ... Instead of having the ball about in the mid-field if the jaguars would have made a 3 and out, the steelers took the ball inside their 20 yard line or something like that with only 2 minutes left in the half ... It's games like that that Jaguars loved to play in 2017!

Yes, I agree that the running game needs to be better, but this success / efficiency stats are as good as the Batting average in Baseball .... It can be important, especially in some situations, but that not say everything