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Thread: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

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    Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Topic Statement: The absence of Antonio Brown will lower Ben Roethlisberger’s interception total.

    Explanation: Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw 16 interceptions last season, which was the most in the league. Antonio Brown was the official target of record on 10 of those interceptions, more than double the amount of any other target.

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    https://steelersdepot.com/2019/06/bu...oethlisberger/

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    I'm buying. It won't be a drastic change, because he's throwing to new receivers, but it'll be down from last year.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Things we learn from day1 as far back as PeeWee football. Penalties and Turn Overs lose games. PERIOD. How much of an impact no AB has on that is to be decided. I'm more interested in fixing the RT spot first.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    It should be less because, we know that Ben would take chances throwing to AB. I mean who would not throw some balls that were less than 50% to AB? He was One Hell of a player you can't dispute that and, this year Ben just has to be Ben make good decisions and, I think the Steelers will go far this season.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Sell. Ben has and always will force the ball to his favorite WR. How many picks did he throw Wards way?

    Also how many INTs did AB change because he ripped a ball down he had no business catching? It cuts both ways.

    I bet Ben tosses INT at his same rate. Maybe number goes down because pass attempts go down.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Sell. Ben has and always will force the ball to his favorite WR. How many picks did he throw Wards way?

    Also how many INTs did AB change because he ripped a ball down he had no business catching? It cuts both ways.

    I bet Ben tosses INT at his same rate. Maybe number goes down because pass attempts go down.
    How many picks did he throw to Hines? How many did he throw to Santonio and Heath? Should we also throw Nate Washington to the mix?

    As for AB no idea I do know that Ben forced the ball to him and sometimes it panned out and some times it didn't. Not sure anyone can answer how many times he threw to AB and he made the reception or it ended in an Int. I have always felt that Int's should be credited to the WR when the ball is a catchable ball and the WR muffs it.

    If like you say they go down because he is not attempting as many passes then maybe the better comparison would be at what percentage.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Butch View Post
    How many picks did he throw to Hines? How many did he throw to Santonio and Heath? Should we also throw Nate Washington to the mix?

    As for AB no idea I do know that Ben forced the ball to him and sometimes it panned out and some times it didn't. Not sure anyone can answer how many times he threw to AB and he made the reception or it ended in an Int. I have always felt that Int's should be credited to the WR when the ball is a catchable ball and the WR muffs it.

    If like you say they go down because he is not attempting as many passes then maybe the better comparison would be at what percentage.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.c...R/RoetBe00.htm

    Ben tends to toss about 11-15 INTs per year at about a tick under 3% as a rate.

    So assume he attempts more like 500 passes this upcoming year, then looking at about 13 INTs.

    2014 was the ONLY season in Ben's career where he played a full slate of games AND had less than double digit INTs. The historical numbers and trends all point to Ben R throwing maybe 3 less INTs this season. So just can not buy the hypothesis that Ben's INTs come from force feeding AB. He was tossing the same amount of INTs per season and at the same rate per attempts long before AB showed up.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Sell: Ben -self-proclaims himself as a gunslinger and risk-taker. If Ben duplicates double digit interceptions in 2019, people will blame Juju or Fichtner instead.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    https://www.pro-football-reference.c...R/RoetBe00.htm

    Ben tends to toss about 11-15 INTs per year at about a tick under 3% as a rate.

    So assume he attempts more like 500 passes this upcoming year, then looking at about 13 INTs.

    2014 was the ONLY season in Ben's career where he played a full slate of games AND had less than double digit INTs. The historical numbers and trends all point to Ben R throwing maybe 3 less INTs this season. So just can not buy the hypothesis that Ben's INTs come from force feeding AB. He was tossing the same amount of INTs per season and at the same rate per attempts long before AB showed up.

    In the 2000s, the NFL had at least 3.0% interception by throw for most of the time.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.c...FL/passing.htm


    In the last 5-6 years it's 2.4,2.5%, so the NFL have a lot less interception in the last couple years

    Ben has often been above average in the INT %, outside of the 2006 season, where it was ridiculous .... expect for that season, Ben has often been under control in his interceptions, but in the last few years, even if it was not awful, it was average his INT%

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Ben’s 2019 season stat-line:

    5,600 yards passing
    37 TDs
    17 INTs
    1 Lombardi Trophy

    (I only truly care about that last one.)

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    He'll force it to Juju instead.

    It's not as if he wasn't known for taking risks and forcing throws before ...
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by polamalubeast View Post
    In the 2000s, the NFL had at least 3.0% interception by throw for most of the time.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.c...FL/passing.htm


    In the last 5-6 years it's 2.4,2.5%, so the NFL have a lot less interception in the last couple years

    Ben has often been above average in the INT %, outside of the 2006 season, where it was ridiculous .... expect for that season, Ben has often been under control in his interceptions, but in the last few years, even if it was not awful, it was average his INT%
    Right. But that story that Ben R throws a high # of interceptions because he forces the ball to AB in order to please the jerk diva WR is false. Ben has basically thrown between 2-3% INTs every single season he played a full schedule of games. No reason to think that he will do any different in 2019 and suddenly throw INTs at a lower rate.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Right. But that story that Ben R throws a high # of interceptions because he forces the ball to AB in order to please the jerk diva WR is false. Ben has basically thrown between 2-3% INTs every single season he played a full schedule of games. No reason to think that he will do any different in 2019 and suddenly throw INTs at a lower rate.
    What about the years he hasn't played a full schedule of games? Furthermore even if he does throw 2-3% Ints does it really matter?

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    The int% of Ben was better than the NFL average from 2007 to 2012 (It was at 2.35 when the NFL averaged about 2.8-3.0 INT%)

    Since 2013, its INT% is at 2.46 when the league average was at 2.4-2.5% INT, so he was average if we compare the rest of the league.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Butch View Post
    What about the years he hasn't played a full schedule of games? Furthermore even if he does throw 2-3% Ints does it really matter?
    Like the 2010 season with only 5 interceptions in 12 games!

    The other two years where Ben was not great in the INT% was in 2008 (but 8 of his 15 interceptions were on 3 games in a row against the Giants, redskins and colts .... for the rest of the year, Ben had 7 interceptions in 13 games and 8 in 16 games including the playoffs) and 2011 where his interceptions were out of control on 2 games against the Ravens in opener and his game against the 49ers where he should have never played, since he was far from to be healthy.

    2014, he was great to keep his interceptions down, same thing for 2017 except for the game against the jaguars ... Last year his INT% was average not awful, but it would have been lower if he would have less forced the ball to AB .

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by polamalubeast View Post
    The int% of Ben was better than the NFL average from 2007 to 2012 (It was at 2.35 when the NFL averaged about 2.8-3.0 INT%)

    Since 2013, its INT% is at 2.46 when the league average was at 2.4-2.5% INT, so he was average if we compare the rest of the league.
    So he was average what does that really mean? How was he on wins those years? I mean isn't that really the only thing that matters? Some people throw around stats like they are some kind of foreboding of what is to come. Stats never really tell the whole story, and can be manipulated in so many different ways, so why get all wound up about them?

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Butch View Post
    So he was average what does that really mean? How was he on wins those years? I mean isn't that really the only thing that matters? Some people throw around stats like they are some kind of foreboding of what is to come. Stats never really tell the whole story, and can be manipulated in so many different ways, so why get all wound up about them?
    I was only talking about his interceptions

    I did not say Ben was average, since this is far from being the case!

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by polamalubeast View Post
    Like the 2010 season with only 5 interceptions in 12 games!

    The other two years where Ben was not great in the INT% was in 2008 (but 8 of his 15 interceptions were on 3 games in a row against the Giants, redskins and colts .... for the rest of the year, Ben had 7 interceptions in 13 games and 8 in 16 games including the playoffs) and 2011 where his interceptions were out of control on 2 games against the Ravens in opener and his game against the 49ers where he should have never played, since he was far from to be healthy.

    2014, he was great to keep his interceptions down, same thing for 2017 except for the game against the jaguars ... Last year his INT% was average not awful, but it would have been lower if he would have less forced the ball to AB .
    Case in point in 2008 we won the super bowl so what is the point?

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Butch View Post
    What about the years he hasn't played a full schedule of games? Furthermore even if he does throw 2-3% Ints does it really matter?
    Roughly the same to a little higher. It does not matter at all. The only point is that the idea that "No AB=Less INTs because AB forced Ben to force the ball." simply doesn't hold up to even a cursory look at Ben's long career.

    Ben throws about 2-3% INTs per year regardless of who plays WR.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Sell. Ben has and always will force the ball to his favorite WR. How many picks did he throw Wards way?

    Also how many INTs did AB change because he ripped a ball down he had no business catching? It cuts both ways.

    I bet Ben tosses INT at his same rate. Maybe number goes down because pass attempts go down.
    This. I expect JuJu to lead the team in target interceptions this year. Ben forces balls and always has...as much as people would love to blame AB for it, it happened before he was in Pittsburgh.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    This. I expect JuJu to lead the team in target interceptions this year. Ben forces balls and always has...as much as people would love to blame AB for it, it happened before he was in Pittsburgh.
    Except Ben was better that the league average for the INT % for the most part before the peak years of AB.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    The numbers tell many stories about the season. Example, last season Ben throws something like 17 INTs and I think I read on here somewhere that 10 were REDZONE INTs meant for AB. Yet the Steelers still led the league with almost a 75% REDZONE TD%. So the number/average is high, low, whatever, it still equals 75%(ish) REDZONE TD rate. I don't think any fan wants to lower that percentage. At the same time we ALL would love if those 10 REDZONE AB targets had been points instead of INTs of course.

    The woes of last season was not Ben's INTs or who he was throwing to when he was intercepted. Fewer TOs all around and a few more take aways instead makes a happier season in 2019.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Butch View Post
    So he was average what does that really mean? How was he on wins those years? I mean isn't that really the only thing that matters? Some people throw around stats like they are some kind of foreboding of what is to come. Stats never really tell the whole story, and can be manipulated in so many different ways, so why get all wound up about them?


    It's just like when Ben eludes two pass rushers, buys an extra 3.5 seconds, and ultimately completes a pass on a play when protection broke down and maybe 2 or 3 other quarterbacks even have a chance to make that play. Ben only gets credit for a completion, but anyone watching and understanding knows it is worth much more than that. He avoids what would definitely be a sack or a throwaway on almost any other quarterback. Players like Ben who create are often hard to quantify with raw stats.

    Some guys can only play within the system. Ben has always been a quarterback that can do things when everything breads down. That's also a double-edged sword because he sometimes makes mistakes taking those risks, but that has ultimately been his strength and what has distinguished him from other QBs and has allowed him to make game-winning plays.

    I hope he throws less picks, but it is ultimately about how many wins he leads them to and when he is able to get things done on the field that really matters.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    I hope he throws less picks, but it is ultimately about how many wins he leads them to and when he is able to get things done on the field that really matters.
    if only Ben watched more film and was a better leader like Peyton...

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    It's just like when Ben eludes two pass rushers, buys an extra 3.5 seconds, and ultimately completes a pass on a play when protection broke down and maybe 2 or 3 other quarterbacks even have a chance to make that play. Ben only gets credit for a completion, but anyone watching and understanding knows it is worth much more than that. He avoids what would definitely be a sack or a throwaway on almost any other quarterback. Players like Ben who create are often hard to quantify with raw stats.

    Some guys can only play within the system. Ben has always been a quarterback that can do things when everything breads down. That's also a double-edged sword because he sometimes makes mistakes taking those risks, but that has ultimately been his strength and what has distinguished him from other QBs and has allowed him to make game-winning plays.

    I hope he throws less picks, but it is ultimately about how many wins he leads them to and when he is able to get things done on the field that really matters.
    Exactly

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteeler View Post
    if only Ben watched more film and was a better leader like Peyton...

    If only.....

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Consider that the game ab didn't play, ben threw an interception, his average per game for the season

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by polamalubeast View Post
    Except Ben was better that the league average for the INT % for the most part before the peak years of AB.
    Still...Ben forcing the ball is Ben forcing the ball. Doesn’t fall on AB.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    Still...Ben forcing the ball is Ben forcing the ball. Doesn’t fall on AB.
    It did if Ben wanted to keep him happy and not have his diva wr throw a hissy fit on the sidelines.

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    Re: Buy Or Sell: AB’s Absence Will Lead To Fewer Interceptions From Roethlisberger

    Quote Originally Posted by Butch View Post
    It did if Ben wanted to keep him happy and not have his diva wr throw a hissy fit on the sidelines.

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