Leveon Bell is a Free Agent

[AtlantaDan]

should have tagged him. It sets a precedent that all you have to do is not show up for a season and then can walk. What good is having the franchise tag in the CBA then?

Sitting out a year is a serious financial hit - before someone else does it their agent may run the numbers on whether Bell made the $$$ back that he lost this year

Maybe the precedent is be careful about tagging someone twice since they can bank the tag $$$ from the first tag to bankroll sitting out when you get tagged twice

[steelreserve]

Sitting out a year is a serious financial hit - before someone else does it their agent may run the numbers on whether Bell made the $$$ back that he lost this year

Maybe the precedent is be careful about tagging someone twice since they can bank the tag $$$ from the first tag to bankroll sitting out when you get tagged twice

The offer he turned down was 5 years, $70M. So he'll need 4 years, $70M to equal it. Or if it's 5 years, then $84.5M to make up for the $14.5M he skipped for his lost year.

That's just to break even. To actually come out ahead, he would need real QB money. I don't think this will become the thinking man's negotiating tactic in the future. The franchise tag cost is that high for a reason, which is to make the math work against you HARD if you ever tried this bullshit.

I still think the full-season holdout was all about weed, not money, or he would've come back the day after the trade deadline.

[teegre]

I bet if Martin Luther King were alive, he'd be pretty pissed at someone using his quote like that. Completely missing the point of his famous "I Have a Drink" speech.

“I didn’t land on Plymouth Rock... uh... shame on you, Tennessee, you can’t fool me again.”

[vader29]

[NCSteeler]

How does that guy keep a job?

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[Dwinsgames]

[86WARD]

And yet Kordell Stewart led teams went to more AFC Championship games...lol.

[AtlantaDan]

And yet Kordell Stewart played on teams went to more AFC Championship games...lol.

Fixed it for you

[Craic]

Sitting out a year is a serious financial hit - before someone else does it their agent may run the numbers on whether Bell made the $$$ back that he lost this year

Maybe the precedent is be careful about tagging someone twice since they can bank the tag $$$ from the first tag to bankroll sitting out when you get tagged twice

I wonder why everyone misses the risk factor.
It isn't a straight money earned to money lost equation. It's real money earned to potential money lost due to injury. Whether we like it or not, that's been the sticking point.

[st33lersguy]

But some how the main reason those teams never got to the super bowl (Keith butler) is still on the damn team.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I wonder why everyone misses the risk factor.
It isn't a straight money earned to money lost equation. It's real money earned to potential money lost due to injury. Whether we like it or not, that's been the sticking point.

Yup, for Ryan Shazier its a 5 year career and total of $18.2 million dollars in career earnings. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsbur...cash-earnings/ If he wasn't injured, who knows how much he would have made.

Guys playing on a franchise tag are not immune to career ending injuries in the NFL.

[Dwinsgames]

I wonder why everyone misses the risk factor.
It isn't a straight money earned to money lost equation. It's real money earned to potential money lost due to injury. Whether we like it or not, that's been the sticking point.

that's why there is also insurance policies

[Craic]

that's why there is also insurance policies

I wonder how much a policy against injury is . . . especially one that would pay out twenty-fifty million?

[NCSteeler]

I wonder how much a policy against injury is . . . especially one that would pay out twenty-fifty million?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...er-protection/

The policies bought by his parents cover him for $10 million in total disability in the event of a career-ending injury and $10 million for circumstances that would lead to him falling from his projected NFL draft spot.

These days, you cannot typically purchase one without the other even if you wanted to. And when premiums run approximately $8,000 per $1 million of coverage, there's a lot of money going around even if the covered player finishes his career with no more than a hangnail.



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[teegre]

I hope that Bell signs for $25 million/season... and, so should you.

The more money Bell signs for as a free agent, the larger the amount that the Steelers could spend in free agency before they offset that amount.

For example, let’s say Bell only signs for $10 million/season (“Yerg, take dat!!!”), and the Steelers spend $10 million in free agency; it’d be a net of ZERO... meaning a R3 comp pick is less likely. Whereas, if Bell signs for $25 million/season (“Argh, I hate dat a$$hole!!!”), the Steelers would have a net of PLUS $15 million... making it far more likely that we get a R3 comp pick.

Note: The math is not “exactly” like I listed, but it’s essentially how comp picks work.

[AtlantaDan]

Word on the street is that Bell, who’s playing weight is about 225 pounds, ballooned to around 260 pounds at one point during his year-long hiatus. There’s a fair amount of concern from the Jets about what kind of shape he’s in at the moment.

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...220-story.html

If teams want to circulate rumors to try to drive down Bell’s market value, his past conduct such as the jet ski video where he looked bloated provides a lot of material to work with

IMO his biggest problem will be the doubts on whether the Rams overpaid Gurley

I wonder why everyone misses the risk factor.
It isn't a straight money earned to money lost equation. It's real money earned to potential money lost due to injury. Whether we like it or not, that's been the sticking point.

I do not believe it is missed - the difficulty is how to quantify it

Bell risked getting injured by playing in 2018, with a consequent impact on his future earnings, and any team that signs him to a long term contract risks him getting injured early in the span of that multi-year contract, with a consequent impact on his future production that impact's the team's return on its investment

Bell's problem is that contracts for running backs are lower due to both the risk of injury/wear and tear as well as the perception running backs can be more easily replaced on the cheap.

FiveThirtyEight ran an article shortly after Bell failed to report that contended Bell was more likely to maximize his earnings by playing in 2018 and cashing the franchise tag checks

Bell’s camp must balance the amount of guaranteed money he is likely to earn in the open market with the risk of injury if he plays this season....



If Bell is able to land a contract worth more than Todd Gurley’s, for a total guaranteed contract value of $55 million, holding out becomes a profitable decision.



If Bell’s overriding goal is to get paid and maximize his earnings, his best course of action is to report immediately to team headquarters and start cashing his checks.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-holdout-now/

[86WARD]

I read the over weight thing was #fakenews...

:dunno:

[AtlantaDan]

I read the over weight thing was #fakenews...

:dunno:

Bell's trainer denied it - that's someone who is not going to burn a client

It’s so untrue it’s laughable and ridiculous,” Bommarito stated. “He has stuck to the plan and stayed in shape all year. It’s ridiculous. Where does this stuff come from? Who says this? Nobody asked me.

https://sports.yahoo.com/leveon-bell...012640270.html

FWIW when the jet ski photos circulated there were observations Bell did not look to be in playing shape

But it is like negative campaign ads - if the rumor has a plausible basis it can hurt Bell's bargaining position

With his multiple suspensions there has always been the perception Bell is a bigger risk than most players once he gets the guaranteed $$$

[DesertSteel]

IMO his biggest problem will be the doubts on whether the Rams overpaid Gurley

Coupled with the fact that the 2018 replacement outplayed the 2017 Bell.

[Fire Goodell]

Coupled with the fact that the 2018 replacement outplayed the 2017 Bell.

They did overpay for Gurley, no RB is worth that much. However, the only reason why that contract ever happened was because Goff is still on his rookie contract. Any time it's a QB's turn to get paid, the only guys on offense making that kind of money are the WRs or OL.

Hate to say it but RBs are the most replaceable pieces in the offense. It's not uncommon for a rookie RB to come into the league and start ripping 1000 yard seasons from the get-go. Not so much you see the same production from a rookie OL or WR, that's why they make the big bucks (harder learning curve / harder to replace).

Unfortunate that RBs have a shorter shelf life, but in business not everything is 'fair'. If Bell wanted market value as a WR he should have become one (though with his 4.6/4.7 speed, good luck with that).

[AtlantaDan]

They did overpay for Gurley, no RB is worth that much. However, the only reason why that contract ever happened was because Goff is still on his rookie contract.

IMO stirring up excitement to sell PSLs for the new stadium that opens in 2020 was a big factor - Gurley still had 2018 and 2019 left on his rookie deal and given the risk of a running back getting injured (like Gurley did) with multiple years left on his current deal extending him last summer at well above market rates was odd

[steelreserve]

I hope that Bell signs for $25 million/season... and, so should you.

The more money Bell signs for as a free agent, the larger the amount that the Steelers could spend in free agency before they offset that amount.

For example, let’s say Bell only signs for $10 million/season (“Yerg, take dat!!!”), and the Steelers spend $10 million in free agency; it’d be a net of ZERO... meaning a R3 comp pick is less likely. Whereas, if Bell signs for $25 million/season (“Argh, I hate dat a$$hole!!!”), the Steelers would have a net of PLUS $15 million... making it far more likely that we get a R3 comp pick.

Note: The math is not “exactly” like I listed, but it’s essentially how comp picks work.

Seriously - who even gives a shit. This team has problems that a comp pick at the end of round 3 is not going to fix.

While fans do like to see their team win, there is also a desire to see your enemies crushed; you could probably plot it similar to the lovely graphs above. The paltry amount of help we would get from Bell being remarkably successful in is negotiations - essentially the first pick of the fourth round, IF THAT - is insignificant by comparison with the satisfaction of seeing a dickhead get what's coming to him. Fuck that draft pick, let him get a DUI and a year-long drug suspension tomorrow.

Would it be worth a fourth-round draft pick to you if it meant they found Tom Brady's helmet radio, and he got a season-long ban and never made the Hall of Fame, and all of his accomplishments were called into question? Because that would sure be worth it to me. Same idea.

[DesertSteel]

They did overpay for Gurley, no RB is worth that much. However, the only reason why that contract ever happened was because Goff is still on his rookie contract. Any time it's a QB's turn to get paid, the only guys on offense making that kind of money are the WRs or OL.

Hate to say it but RBs are the most replaceable pieces in the offense. It's not uncommon for a rookie RB to come into the league and start ripping 1000 yard seasons from the get-go. Not so much you see the same production from a rookie OL or WR, that's why they make the big bucks (harder learning curve / harder to replace).

Unfortunate that RBs have a shorter shelf life, but in business not everything is 'fair'. If Bell wanted market value as a WR he should have become one (though with his 4.6/4.7 speed, good luck with that).

Yeah... parents, don't let your kids be Running Backs!

- - - Updated - - -

Outside of Ray Lewis I rarely wish players bad will but these two will be high on my wish list this coming season. Kind wish they both end up with Jets or bills and experience great heart break

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One thing for sure - the Steelers took the best from both of them. Neither will ever duplicate the numbers they put up in the black and gold.

[teegre]

Seriously - who even gives a shit. This team has problems that a comp pick at the end of round 3 is not going to fix.

While fans do like to see their team win, there is also a desire to see your enemies crushed; you could probably plot it similar to the lovely graphs above. The paltry amount of help we would get from Bell being remarkably successful in is negotiations - essentially the first pick of the fourth round, IF THAT - is insignificant by comparison with the satisfaction of seeing a dickhead get what's coming to him. Fuck that draft pick, let him get a DUI and a year-long drug suspension tomorrow.

Would it be worth a fourth-round draft pick to you if it meant they found Tom Brady's helmet radio, and he got a season-long ban and never made the Hall of Fame, and all of his accomplishments were called into question? Because that would sure be worth it to me. Same idea.

[hawaiiansteeler]

The Jets, Buccaneers and Eagles are expected to be "involved" for Le'Veon Bell. - Jason La Canfora, CBS

It's unclear if La Canfora was reporting news or was just speculating, but these teams make sense. The Jets have tons of cap space and could afford Bell. The Eagles and Buccaneers do not, but they have opportunities to slash veteran salaries to obtain Bell. It's been speculated that Bell wants $50 million over his first two years, which seems absurd.

Read more at http://walterfootball.com/nflrumors#oFMAdmzw0Q3pTczu.99

[teegre]

I’ve said since September (?) that Bell will likely end up with the Colts. They have the cap space to pay him $25 million, and he’d be the perfect weapon for Luck (whose talents are being wasted).

[86WARD]

$50M over first two years?? Lol. He’s trying to get that $14.5M he lost back...

Any team that pays that is insane and setting themselves up for failure.

[teegre]

$50M over first two years?? Lol. He’s trying to get that $14.5M he lost back...

Any team that pays that is insane and setting themselves up for failure.

Bell is simply asking for $100,000 per pound...

[86WARD]

Eagles decided not to tag Foles...could be signs that they need to money for Bell...

[Fire Goodell]

$50M over first two years?? Lol. He’s trying to get that $14.5M he lost back...

Any team that pays that is insane and setting themselves up for failure.

Only team that'd make sense to honestly is the Colts. They have a good enough squad to where 1-2 additional pieces could make them a championship team. Any other team, the cap hit would hamstring their chances.

With that said, the Colts haven't really shown interest in Bell, and already have a pretty deep backfield.