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Thread: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

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    Senior Member Array title="Mojouw has a reputation beyond repute"> Mojouw's Avatar

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    If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Recent postings seem to want to revisit the past several seasons with 20/20 hindsight to discuss what should've been done.

    What if the Steelers chose to never attempt to sign Leveon Bell to anything in 2018. Then they take Bell's and Bostic's cap charges and funnel them into Demario Davis?

    At the time, I figured Davis would continue to be average to a bit above average, but he really helped shore up the Saints defense.

    #TomlinShouldveKnown

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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    What if they got rid of Tomlin in like 2015 and had a coach who knew anything about identifying and coaching up players, and had a mind for innovating on defense.

    Bam, suddenly our three high picks at CB/S are used on players who aren't meatheads, and they plus Haden form one of the top defensive backfields in the league, with the other young players as solid depth because they developed instead of regressed. Our linebacking corps is solid.

    Overflowing with talented young players, our new 3-3-5 base defense is the innovation that the league didn't see coming, and other teams scramble to copy it but are always playing catch-up, as the right kinds of players are now expensive and hunted to extinction, much like tall cornerbacks after Seattle's sudden rise.

    The Patriots fail to reach the Super Bowl even once during this time, as all roads lead through Heinz Field and the aggressive defensive scheme provides the perfect counter to the pass-heavy meta that had dominated the past decade. Tom Brady retires in 2017 after 12 seasons without a championship, having never captured that elusive fourth title. Ben Roethlisberger enters 2019 aiming to win one more Super Bowl before retiring, to pass Bradshaw and Montana for the most of all time.

    Certainly seems better than the actual sequence of events.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Senior Member Array title="Mojouw has a reputation beyond repute"> Mojouw's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    What if they got rid of Tomlin in like 2015 and had a coach who knew anything about identifying and coaching up players, and had a mind for innovating on defense.

    Bam, suddenly our three high picks at CB/S are used on players who aren't meatheads, and they plus Haden form one of the top defensive backfields in the league, with the other young players as solid depth because they developed instead of regressed. Our linebacking corps is solid.

    Overflowing with talented young players, our new 3-3-5 base defense is the innovation that the league didn't see coming, and other teams scramble to copy it but are always playing catch-up, as the right kinds of players are now expensive and hunted to extinction, much like tall cornerbacks after Seattle's sudden rise.

    The Patriots fail to reach the Super Bowl even once during this time, as all roads lead through Heinz Field and the aggressive defensive scheme provides the perfect counter to the pass-heavy meta that had dominated the past decade. Tom Brady retires in 2017 after 12 seasons without a championship, having never captured that elusive fourth title. Ben Roethlisberger enters 2019 aiming to win one more Super Bowl before retiring, to pass Bradshaw and Montana for the most of all time.

    Certainly seems better than the actual sequence of events.
    So they hired Billy B away from New England?

    I could advance the argument that this is pretty much what the defense would be if it was Shazier AND Edmunds right down the middle...

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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    So they hired Billy B away from New England?

    I could advance the argument that this is pretty much what the defense would be if it was Shazier AND Edmunds right down the middle...
    Maybe. But something tells me our current staff wouldn't be able to put that together. We also would need to do something about all the whiffs that happen because we have zero player development.

    Funny thing, the coach before Tomlin more or less fit the description, except he knew jack shit about quarterbacks. Seems there were also a number of recent coaching hires around the league that led their teams into contention in similar fashion. What could one of them have done with our roster and draft picks in that timeframe? More than jogging in place?
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Senior Member Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute"> Born2Steel's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    So they hired Billy B away from New England?

    I could advance the argument that this is pretty much what the defense would be if it was Shazier AND Edmunds right down the middle...
    Or with either D.White, or M.Wilson AND T.Edmunds. Throw in run stuffing specialists like VW and Bostic and the middle looks pretty decent once again. Damn those Jarvis Jones and Artie Burns picks! Damn them to HELL!!!

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    Senior Member Array title="Mojouw has a reputation beyond repute"> Mojouw's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    The zero player development thing is a total myth. There have been two first round picks since like forever that haven't turned into viable NFL starters - Jarvis Jones and Artie Burns. 3 if you push back to Evander Hood and that dude still played 10 years in the league.

    If you go through to the 3rd round you end up with Archer, Curtis Brown, and Sammie Coates as total busts and the rest either got got by injury or made a viable career as at least a rotational piece around the NFL.

    Anything after the 3rd round, you are throwing darts regardless of who is in charge.

    The "coach before Tomlin" invented the fundamental defensive scheme that so many here despise. Anyone really think that he would've ever moved off of zone coverages, zone-blitzes, and whatnot? As to player development, take a look...those drafts where he "liked the look in that young man's eye" or the drafts where basically no one after the first round was a viable NFL player (seriously look at 2004 - now imagine if they took Stacy Andrews in the first round! And yes, I am aware of Max Starks).

    And who are these recently hired coaches that led their teams to contention around the league that don't do offense? I mean Vic Fangio and Anthony Lynn....and everyone else was on offense...except the ones that stunk.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Born2Steel View Post
    Or with either D.White, or M.Wilson AND T.Edmunds. Throw in run stuffing specialists like VW and Bostic and the middle looks pretty decent once again. Damn those Jarvis Jones and Artie Burns picks! Damn them to HELL!!!
    Yup. If this off-season cycle produces one viable playmaker in the middle of the field, much of the problems go away. Or at least are shifted to wherever Sensabaugh plays.

    The SB was an excellent example of how offenses have shifted to making their living in the middle of the field and less and less "big" plays are coming outside the numbers down the sidelines. Unfortunately, right as this offensive shift in focus has taken place, the middle of the Steelers defense has collapsed. If the 2019 Steelers defense could shut off plays between the numbers in a box from 5-15 yards downfield, I would be willing to let teams, throw outside and have Sensabaugh "tackle catch" 12 times a game. Because if they do the first, the latter isn't enough to beat them.

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    Senior Member Array title="Mojouw has a reputation beyond repute"> Mojouw's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Here is another one. Instead of Morgan Burnett, the Steelers take the plunge on Eric Reid. Provides the defense with a SS/ILB hybrid player that can stay on the field. Assume they still draft Edmunds. Now they can play that 3-3-5 look all year.

    Not sure it changes anything, but I do think that Reid would have had a more meaningful 2018-2020 on field impact than Burnett does/will. And that is sad because I was a MASSIVE fan of the Burnett signing. I am actually still convinced it was the right move and a HEALTHY Burnett is the 2nd or 3rd best DB on the team.

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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Here is another one. Instead of Morgan Burnett, the Steelers take the plunge on Eric Reid. Provides the defense with a SS/ILB hybrid player that can stay on the field. Assume they still draft Edmunds. Now they can play that 3-3-5 look all year.

    Not sure it changes anything, but I do think that Reid would have had a more meaningful 2018-2020 on field impact than Burnett does/will. And that is sad because I was a MASSIVE fan of the Burnett signing. I am actually still convinced it was the right move and a HEALTHY Burnett is the 2nd or 3rd best DB on the team.
    No question Reid was a better player and would have been more useful than Burnett in either type of defense.

    He's no Ronnie Lott or Troy P., so I don't know if he would've been the missing piece for that defensive scheme ... but if he was, I suppose it would be worth ignoring the fact that he's a dipshit.

    So his talent was definitely undervalued for a year, similar to other players with questionable behavior. These are the kinds of things where a team can make out big by taking a risk, I guess, although at $7-8M long-term, I'd say that was only a temporary win.

    Still can't say I'd like having that guy on the team. There was enough off-the-field bullshit this season that it was a drag already. Would not be a fan of signing a player when it also means you're signing Nancy Pelosi, the Huffington Post, and politics politics politics coming your way every week when what you're interested in is a goddamn football game.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Senior Member Array title="teegre has a reputation beyond repute"> teegre's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    I have said for years, I’d trade the entire 2008 draft to the Vikings in order to draft AP in 2007. Imagine having that caliber of RB to go along with a historically stout defense. Wow!!! I can see the Lombardi shining now.

    If I could have one more “re-do”, it’d be in 2007, as well. I’d trade away a bunch of picks to move up ONE spot and acquire Darrelle Revis. Tomlin really wanted Revis, and assuredly would have drafted him... but, the Jets made a power move. Again, imagine that historically stout defense... but, even more stout. It would have been in the running fir “best defense ever”, more importantly, we likely win one more Super Bowl.

    SUMMATION:
    IMO, either of those moves would have secured (at least) one more Lombardi. Both moves (the whole is greater than the sum of its parts) might have seen the first threepeat in NFL history.

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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by teegre View Post
    I have said for years, I’d trade the entire 2008 draft to the Vikings in order to draft AP in 2007. Imagine having that caliber of RB to go along with a historically stout defense. Wow!!! I can see the Lombardi shining now.

    If I could have one more “re-do”, it’d be in 2007, as well. I’d trade away a bunch of picks to move up ONE spot and acquire Darrelle Revis. Tomlin really wanted Revis, and assuredly would have drafted him... but, the Jets made a power move. Again, imagine that historically stout defense... but, even more stout. It would have been in the running fir “best defense ever”, more importantly, we likely win one more Super Bowl.

    SUMMATION:
    IMO, either of those moves would have secured (at least) one more Lombardi. Both moves (the whole is greater than the sum of its parts) might have seen the first threepeat in NFL history.
    Could we trade the entire 2015 draft for a competent player too?
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Senior Member Array title="teegre has a reputation beyond repute"> teegre's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    Could we trade the entire 2015 draft for a competent player too?
    The 2015 NFL Draft was a whole bunch of meh. That said, I'd have traded our R3-R7 picks in order to move up for Marcus Peters, and then, simply drafted Danielle Hunter in R2.

    http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/...015-nfl-draft/

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    Senior Member Array title="hawaiiansteeler has a reputation beyond repute"> hawaiiansteeler's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by teegre View Post
    The 2015 NFL Draft was a whole bunch of meh. That said, I'd have traded our R3-R7 picks in order to move up for Marcus Peters, and then, simply drafted Danielle Hunter in R2.
    we didn't need to move up for Marcus Peters, we could have selected CB Byron Jones instead of Bud Dupree and taken Danielle Hunter in the 3rd round instead of Sammie Coates. and in the 4th round, we could have taken WR Stefon Diggs instead of the awesome Doran Grant.

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    Senior Member Array title="steelreserve has a reputation beyond repute"> steelreserve's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteeler View Post
    we didn't need to move up for Marcus Peters, we could have selected CB Byron Jones instead of Bud Dupree and taken Danielle Hunter in the 3rd round instead of Sammie Coates. and in the 4th round, we could have taken WR Stefon Diggs instead of the awesome Doran Grant.
    For that matter, we could've drafted any players at random and they would've worked out as well or better than the ones we actually got.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Senior Member Array title="teegre has a reputation beyond repute"> teegre's Avatar

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    Re: If we are going to do counter-factuals, let's at least make them fun!

    Quote Originally Posted by hawaiiansteeler View Post
    we didn't need to move up for Marcus Peters, we could have selected CB Byron Jones instead of Bud Dupree and taken Danielle Hunter in the 3rd round instead of Sammie Coates. and in the 4th round, we could have taken WR Stefon Diggs instead of the awesome Doran Grant.
    I used those two players in my example, because they were players who I had mentioned quite a bit prior to the draft.

    But, Yes, one can absolutely construct a pretty good draft using hindsight. For example:

    R1: Landon Collins, SS, Alabama*
    R2: Markus Golden, OLB, Mizzou**
    R3: Danielle Hunter, OLB, LSU
    R4: Stephon Diggs, WR, Maryland

    *Byron Jones, CB, UConn

    **Tyler Locker, WR/KR/PR, Kansas St.
    **David Johnson, RB, Northern Iowa

    ***Kwon Alexander, ILB, LSU
    ***Za’Darius Smith, OLB, Kentucky

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