Steelers Chances of Making Playoffs?

[GBMelBlount]

Feel free to pontificate, however, I am only interested to know what you think our chances of making the playoffs are.

I say 100%

[Born2Steel]

Steelers control their own fate. If we win it doesn't matter what anybody else does. I do not like the matchup this weekend in Nawlins. The upside is that their offense has been struggling also. If we leave NO with a loss we will need help from SD, and Cincy becomes a must win. I will be somewhat surprised if the Steelers are not in the playoffs. But if placing a wager, I would give it about a 75% chance to make the playoffs.

If we leave NO with the 'W' however, I would put our chances at 99%. With the only way we miss is by tripping over our own d!*k$.

[GBMelBlount]

Steelers control their own fate. If we win it doesn't matter what anybody else does. I do not like the matchup this weekend in Nawlins. The upside is that their offense has been struggling also. If we leave NO with a loss we will need help from SD, and Cincy becomes a must win. I will be somewhat surprised if the Steelers are not in the playoffs. But if placing a wager, I would give it about a 75% chance to make the playoffs.

If we leave NO with the 'W' however, I would put our chances at 99%. With the only way we miss is by tripping over our own d!*k$.

Only 99%? I was thinking 101%if we beat NO.

[Fire Goodell]

50/50, a lot of it depends if we can win this weekend and if the ravens continue their hot streakk

[AtlantaDan]

But if placing a wager, I would give it about a 75% chance to make the playoffs.

The FiveThirtyEight site is in exact agreement with your 75% current probability of Steelers making the playoffs

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

But we need to root hard for the Chargers Saturday night - FiveThirtyEight also puts a 74% probability on the Saints winning this Sunday

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...l-predictions/

[Hawkman]

I’m good with 75%. The Chargers will be very motivated to win. They are very much in the hunt for the #1 seed.

[DesertSteel]

I think ESPN puts it at around 80%.

[CV1]

If the Ravens win and we lose, not so good

If we both lose, feel better, but we tend to toss stinkers up against the bungholes and the Ravens have the Browns

If we win and Chargers win, feel pretty damn good.


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[teegre]

we tend to toss stinkers up against the bungholes

Here is a good example of perspective not matching facts.

The Steelers have won 10 of their last 11 against the Bengals. But, yeah... that one “stinker.”

[CV1]

Here is a good example of perspective not matching facts.

The Steelers have won 10 of their last 11 against the Bengals. But, yeah... that one “stinker.”

Yeah wins are wins so you win

Games we had no reason to really trail and come back to win is playing down to the competition, or stinking it up.

With my perspective of the current Steelers being that we lost games to teams we shouldn't of, makes me truly believe they will just beat the bungholes because history says so.

But I digress, you're are correct.


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[AtlantaDan]

I think ESPN puts it at around 80%.

Yep

The Steelers are currently 81 percent favorites, per FPI, to take the AFC North. A Steelers loss and a Ravens win essentially flips Baltimore to the 80 percent favorite.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page...os-2018#ballac

FWIW ESPN ranks the Steelers as the #5 team in its "Football Power Index" (FPI)

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page...ll-power-index

[86WARD]

50/50. 25/75 if the Ravens win Saturday.

[EzraTank]

Feel free to pontificate, however, I am only interested to know what you think our chances of making the playoffs are.

I say 100%

No way 100%. If the Ravens win this weekend (which they easily could, unless the officials stay on the Rivers parade) and we lose we will NOT make the playoffs. The Ravens will beat the Browns at home the following weekend and either the Titans or Colts (they play each other the final weekend) will finish 10-6 and get the #6 seed.

I hope to wake up Monday with the division clinched (We win, Raves Lose this weekend). If that happens and NE & Houston both win we would be locked into the #4 seed and can treat the finale as a "bye" week.

The real interesting thing is if the Seahawks (who are playing for their season) beats KC and the Chargers win the Chargers jump from #5 to #1 in seeding and we could easily be hosting the Chiefs the first wildcard game, then visiting the Chargers (if we win).

- - - Updated - - -

The FiveThirtyEight site is in exact agreement with your 75% current probability of Steelers making the playoffs

FiveThirtyEight also said Hillary couldn't lose

[Rotorhead]

I think it is hilarious that ppl here think the Ravens have a good chance to win Saturday, their QB can’t even pass the ball effectively. He is just another run first guy. Plus they get Gordon back this week and their starting NT. I don’t even think that will be close, Chargers win that by 2 TDs. Add to that, the Browns are playing far better and have a very good to great defense, that isn’t going to be an easy out either as they are playing for their first non losing season in 100 yrs.

As for us, the Saints game can go anyway, I put our chances at winning at 40% because they are at home. We certainly can win in a shootout, so this one will come down to which def plays better, their OL is very banged up so let’s hope for some pressure. The Bengals are imploding, the only thing we really have to worry about is birthdefect injuring someone.

I give is an 80% chance to make the playoffs, and a 60% chance we wrap up the division this weekend.

[AtlantaDan]

FiveThirtyEight also said Hillary couldn't lose

Umm.... not exactly

For most of the presidential campaign, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gave Trump much better odds than other polling-based models. Our final forecast, issued early Tuesday evening, had Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-anyone-else/

In other words, FiveThirtyEight assessed a Trump win to be more probable than its model this weekend that gives the Steelers a 26% probability of beating the Saints

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

[Mojouw]

Probability and percentages. Not a strong suit.

[AtlantaDan]

I think it is hilarious that ppl here think the Ravens have a good chance to win Saturday.

Ravens outplayed the Chiefs for much of their OT loss in KC and had a comparable performance to that of the Chargers in their last second win at Arrowhead

After watching most of the Chiefs-Ravens game I am convinced the Ravens defense is for real and can keep them in any game. Add to that the Chargers having no home field advantage in LA other than the opposing team having to travel and I give the Ravens a real shot to pull the upset.

Ravens certainly have a much better chance to win than the Steelers this weekend

[AtlantaDan]

Probability and percentages. Not a strong suit.

Me too

I tried to comprehend Nate Silver's summary of the FiveThirtyEight prediction model and realized I do not have a clue

How Our NFL Predictions Work

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodol...dictions-work/

[Rotorhead]

I agree their defense is very good, but their offense is 1 dimensional at this point, so I think that is not good for them.

[Mojouw]

Me too

I tried to comprehend Nate Silver's summary of the FiveThirtyEight prediction model and realized I do not have a clue

How Our NFL Predictions Work

https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodol...dictions-work/

The thing is they are not concepts that anyone really thinks about well. Multiple studies have demonstrated that the human mind almost instinctively approaches both concepts with several flaws. Take a simple coin flip question. If it was heads last 4 times, what are the chances it will be heads again? Still 50/50 -- the probability resets each time, but it sure feels like it should be something else...

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

The thing is they are not concepts that anyone really thinks about well. Multiple studies have demonstrated that the human mind almost instinctively approaches both concepts with several flaws. Take a simple coin flip question. If it was heads last 4 times, what are the chances it will be heads again? Still 50/50 -- the probability resets each time, but it sure feels like it should be something else...

That sounds like The Monty Hall problem.

[Shoes]

What draft range will the Steelers be in if don't make the playoffs?

[AtlantaDan]

What draft range will the Steelers be in if don't make the playoffs?

If the Steelers miss the playoffs they would draft before the 12 teams that get in and at 9-6-1 probably have one of the best if not the best records of teams that miss

My guess is 19th or 20th pick in first round

[JnK]

Haven't we learned anything yet? The Steelers will win this weekend on the road against a tough NO team and will look like a bunch of unprepared school girls next week in a loss to the Bengals. That's just the way we roll.

[st33lersguy]

An even 50

[steelreserve]

If we win this game, 90%; if we lose, 50-50.

[j-d-s]

I remember one of those 8-8 years where would have made it had the Chargers made a game-winning field goal in week 17...

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

I remember one of those 8-8 years where would have made it had the Chargers made a game-winning field goal in week 17...

I remember Ryan Succop for KC a few years back shaking a game winning field goal. We would have been in if he made it. Look like he did it on purpose and they didn't need the win. Ps. think it was against the Chargers that gave them a playoff birth and not us. Another reason to hate fat arse Andy Reid!

[EzraTank]

I think it is hilarious that ppl here think the Ravens have a good chance to win Saturday, their QB can’t even pass the ball effectively. He is just another run first guy. Plus they get Gordon back this week and their starting NT. I don’t even think that will be close, Chargers win that by 2 TDs.

I think the Chargers are overrated. We played them well and if not for a BS couple of false starts (TD) completely missed and one lucky bounce TD we win.

As AtlantaDan said the Ravens played the Chiefs very well and it took a miracle 4th down play by Mahomes to even get to OT. They may be one dimensional on offense but if Jackson makes the short throws to move the chains his defense can win it for him.

K. Allen will not play so that takes away their best receiver.

[DesertSteel]

Allen is playing for Chargers.