Plus the cap is going up from $177 million to 191 million next year. I fully expect him to land there.Originally Posted by Mojouw
Plus the cap is going up from $177 million to 191 million next year. I fully expect him to land there.
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They had Hunt for $500K a year and they're going to replace him with a guy no better for $15M a year? I don't see it. D-R-A-F-T
Someone's going to pay Bell and if the Cap goes up to $191 million why not them? They have Mahomes cheap for a few more years.
Bell and Hunt are about the same but Bell is a better receiver. Imagine their weapons. Hill, Bell, Kelce ...
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I think the only reason people believe that is because the media keeps saying so. Personally, I'll believe Bell gets $15M and big guaranteed money when I see it. His backups have equalled his performance and he's a year away from football and also has two knee injuries and two drug suspensions.
Why not the Chiefs? Because they seem to make reasonable personnel decisions.
It may not be the Chiefs, but it could be. While we can point to several RBs across the league and say "See! This is why no RB is worth $15 million dollars! Just get a guy in the draft." The other side of that coin is also true. we can point to a number of RBs across the league and argue that "Well, there is no guarantee that a rookie RB can come in and help a team win let alone make a playoff run."
For every Philip Lindsay there is a Rashaad Penny or Peyton Barber or Royce Freeman.
We seem to remember the instant success or unheralded lightening bolts and forget about the underperformers, the slow developers, or the outright busts.
If the Chiefs are convinced that they are otherwise a SB team and have a window to get cap goofy because of Mahomes cheap rookie deal, then spending premium dollars on an established known quantity at the RB position may seem more attractive then drafting and developing. In fact, I would argue that the Chiefs should throw dumptrucks of money at any and all veteran FAs they can to maximize their window before they have to start paying through the nose for Mahomes and Hill.
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But that's the thing. Not only do you not need to pay an overaged, overused running back in FA, you also don't need to burn a 1-2 round pick on one. They are there at low-risk in mid to late and UFA. If I am a GM, I'm taking my chances through that avenue because it's not like a Kurt Warner story, Running Backs are a dime a dozen IMO.
This is all kind of an exercise in confirmation bias. It is easy to focus on the pieces that support what we each already believe. For every late round success story at RB, we can likely find 2+ that were not. We are basically stating the same general idea from a slightly different perspective. Specifically, what is the least risky way to get a good RB on the roster?
1. Successful RBs can be found in ALL rounds of the draft and even undrafted.
2. Each of those sources of players is also littered with misses at the RB position.
3. Paying high $$$ for a veteran proven NFL performer is about the closest and NFL team can come to "low risk" in player acquisition and future performance projection.
4. Option 3 also comes with the real and present danger that you have chosen to pay for past performance and have tied yourself to a declining player.
Basically. there is risk no matter what path an NFL team chooses to pursue to fill holes on the roster. But with a low QB cap #, little other high $$$ talent on the roster, and a window to win SB right now -- there is a logical case to be made that the Chiefs pay Bell a big $$$ contract front loaded with 2019-2021 money and then they cut him when it is time to pay Mahomes and some of the defensive players they hope start coming on-line.
I view that scenario as the lowest risk path to replacing Kareem Hunt in the Chiefs 2019 offense. Since you are percieving the risk a bit differently, then you are all for the lower rounds of the draft.
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Not to discount everything else you wrote, but this above is the point I was making: bring in 2-3 RBs for peanuts and it's likely one will emerge. Teams that fail to accomplish this normally have issues on the OL. The conundrum with the high priced FA RB is that he is on his second contract and for that position in particular, you are paying for past production that may not be indicative of future performance.
I suppose that we just view it differently philosophically when we put our GM hats on. With Gurley, the timing was just right in his contract status to extend him. Perhaps Barkley will fit that mold as well in a couple years. Bell, heading into his "7th" year and the injury/suspension issues would never work for me as a GM. Especially given that he averaged 4.0 YPC his last year and his replacements have not missed a beat. All of that factors in when putting out money that eats up cap.
Are you saying Bell is too old? He's not? As far as overused, he just had a year off and will be 27 years old next fall. Yes he has a injury history but look at Conner. He's younger and this is the second time he's missing time. Melvin Gordon missed time this year as well, that position gets hurt.
Like Mojouw said if the Chiefs are close to winning and have Mahomes/Hill on rookie contracts you offer Bell a 3 year deal with an option for a 4th year. Yes running backs are a dime a dozen but regardless of our hatred of Bell when he's playing he's worth more than a dime a dozen.
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Yeah 27 with the miles and injuries he has on his resume is too old for a heavily guaranteed 2nd contract. Conner and Gordon are not making big money. Whatever Bell is worth, it's not $15-17M a year.
He'll get a 3 year offer somewhere for big money.
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Will he get a bigger offer than the one he rejected?
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And regardless of what a team pays him, IMO the decline already began in 2017. It will be poorly spent money.
Smaller offer with more guaranteed money, that's my bet. I don't think this guy even wants to play football anymore, hence why he's wanting guaranteed money. He seems to have more interest in starting a rap career than football, but I can't say he has the same talent with that
In my opinion, nobody who really loves the game and wants to play would have turned down the Steelers' offer. NOBODY. I don't know a single RB that would have turned down that deal, Gurley included.
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Teams overpay for QBs but I just don't see it at the RB position.Smaller offer with more guaranteed money, that's my bet. I don't think this guy even wants to play football anymore, hence why he's wanting guaranteed money. He seems to have more interest in starting a rap career than football, but I can't say he has the same talent with that
In my opinion, nobody who really loves the game and wants to play would have turned down the Steelers' offer. NOBODY. I don't know a single RB that would have turned down that deal, Gurley included.
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I understand your point, but I think there are exceptions.
A team that has a loyal fanbase and a bad team could be willing to pay big money to give fans a reason to get excited and cheer. It happens all the time. They don't know how to build a team through the draft. They look to make a splash with a huge free agent signing and show the fans they are trying.
The other possibility is a team that believes they are a great running back away from winning a Super Bowl. If a team really believes that they are one player away and they have the cap space, why gamble on a draft pick when they know they could be getting a great player that has proven himself over a few years. It costs more, but it is a known quantity. Windows close very quickly in the NFL, and teams are willing to make big moves to try to win right now.
I'm not saying I would do it. I'm saying there are teams that would spend huge money and probably will.
I get where you are coming from but it would be foolish to not also believe that the more success the Steelers RBs have the more of a hit Bell takes on his potential payday ....
2 different RBs have had big time success in Bells absence making it look as much like a product of system and great line play as it is RB talent level ...
couple that with 1 year away from the game and teams may have a degree of hesitance to even look at him let alone make him an offer ( also knowing the Offer amount that he turned down and walked away from ) you have greatly limited your potential audience from the start
Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. 4 teams in 5 years and traded twice in one off season
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I guess we'll find out about Bell's value soon enough.
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I hope the Patriots or the Ravens pay him $100M.
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