Paul Zeise: Le'Veon Bell bet on himself and lost

[polamalubeast]

Le’Veon Bell apparently thinks he is helping himself in the long-term by sacrificing games and paychecks with the Steelers this year. His agent, Adisa Bakari, is presumably on board with this plan and has made comments publicly that indicate as much.

If that’s the case, here is the one thing out of this dilemma that becomes clearer every week: Bell needs a new agent.

Let me rephrase that a little. Bell needs someone to give him better advice. This holdout has been nothing but a bad look for Bell and there is no chance he is helping his quest for a long-term deal.

He gambled on the belief that he wasn’t replaceable, but he didn’t plan on James Conner producing like he has. Conner has made Bell more and more expendable, which isn’t helping Bell’s quest for a big deal in the offseason. Bell could still return and put up huge numbers, but that possibility becomes more remote each week.

Many of Bell’s teammates sound like they would rather stick with Conner as the starting running back.

“James was a bowling ball [against the Bengals], he was all over the place. What a great game,” Ben Roethlisberger said after the Steelers won, 28-21, Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. “But I know it is his last game for us since Le’Veon’s coming back.”

The line drew laughs, but Roethlisberger was being more sarcastic than funny. This isn’t the first time he has sent a message that he is growing increasingly comfortable with Conner, who rushed for 111 yards and two touchdowns Sunday. Last week on his radio show he said Conner should “by no means” have to go on the shelf when Bell comes back.

That’s bad news for Bell; Roethlisberger generally gets what he wants.


....

To prove his value, he gambled that the Steelers wouldn’t be able to replace his production. He has lost that bet.

Conner has proven that he can replicate most, if not all, of what Bell can do. Conner has also proven Bell’s receiving numbers — a big piece of his claim that his contract should set the market for running backs — are mostly a product of the Steelers’ offense.

Bell will still get paid, but he will be lucky to get a deal as good as the one the Steelers offered. He has gotten bad advice from the start — and it is going to cost him millions.

read more

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/z...box=1539688721

[86WARD]

I said this in another thread. He’s hurting his value and the more he sits and gets out of football shape, the more it could possibly hurt him if he even comes back this season. He’s not going to produce at a LeVeon Bell Level when he returns and he may not get enough carries in Pittsburgh to “get in a groove”.

Teams will look at:

- His attitude - minus money
- His production in 2018 - minus money
- His past production - plus big money
- His past antics - minus money
- This past off-season - minus money
- DeAngelo Williams production - minus money
- James Connor production - minus money
- Todd Gurley current contract vs. production - minus money

It’s looking more and more every day that he should’ve taken that Steelers offer or maybe tried to bargain for the same deal with a couple million more up front guarantee but not ask for AB money.

Having said that, there’s still going to be someone who will pay him and it will probably be a deal relatively close to the Steelers deal with a couple more dollars guaranteed but he’s not going to get Gurley money...especially with what Gurley is doing. That’s not helping his holdout either.

[86WARD]

Teams will look at:

- His attitude - minus money
- His production in 2018 - minus money
- His past production - plus big money
- His past antics - minus money
- This past off-season - minus money
- DeAngelo Williams production - minus money
- James Connor production - minus money
- Todd Gurley current contract vs. production - minus money

To quote myself:

If Bell’s deal starts at $18M/year (plus big money) and you subtract say $500k for each “minus money” listed above...which I think are all legitimate concerns when paying top dollar for a n NFL player...that puts his contract at $14.5M per season. Is that not in the neighborhood of what the Steelers offered him?

[teegre]

@86

As I’ve averred for a long time: Bell isn’t good at math.

[polamalubeast]

The fact that his production has been replaced by Williams or Conner in the last few years and that our offense has had the same production or even better without Bell proves that Bell is not a one of the lifetime players as his agent has already said.

Bell is very good, but maybe he is also a system back that has been helped by the talented players around him including the O-line!

Bell is one of the most idiotic and selfish players I've seen in my life and who thought himself bigger than the team.

[AtlantaDan]

Conner being plugged in for Bell and putting up good numbers is another piece in the puzzle of what Bell may get paid. Two more pieces are the Giants going nowhere despite Saquon Barkley being a human highlight film (the days of a RB alone carrying the offense are long gone) and Leonard Fournette having been on the shelf most of the season (RB durability always a concern).

Bell and his agent will counter that the Rams investment in Todd Gurley is paying off - they better hope Gurley makes it through 2018 intact.

[43Hitman]

The fact that his production has been replaced by Williams or Conner in the last few years and that our offense has had the same production or even better without Bell proves that Bell is not a one of the lifetime players as his agent has already said.

Bell is very good, but maybe he is also a system back that has been helped by the talented players around him including the O-line!

Bell is one of the most idiotic and selfish players I've seen in my life and who thought himself bigger than the team.

I agree. He has over-played his hand big time.

[GBMelBlount]

Conner has proven that he can replicate most, if not all, of what Bell can do.

Conner has also proven Bell’s receiving numbers — a big piece of his claim that his contract should set the market for running backs — are mostly a product of the Steelers’ offense.

Boom.

[tube517]

I can't think of any other RB that sat out for so long other than John Riggins, who sat out the whole season in 1980.

He came back in 1981 because he was bored and "broke".

And Riggins was sharing the load w/Joe Washington when he came back in 1981, sometimes barely getting any carries.

By 1982, he was back to being the workhorse and getting a ring.

[86WARD]

I can't think of any other RB that sat out for so long other than John Riggins, who sat out the whole season in 1980.

He came back in 1981 because he was bored and "broke".

And Riggins was sharing the load w/Joe Washington when he came back in 1981, sometimes barely getting any carries.

By 1982, he was back to being the workhorse and getting a ring.

I don’t think there’s been anyone else to holdout that long. Maybe Eric Dickerson was a good amount but not as long as Bell and never a full season. Most guys have only been the Preseason or I think Faulk and/or Emmitt say at a couple weeks. Maybe Jamal Anderson too?

[AtlantaDan]

I don’t think there’s been anyone else to holdout that long. Maybe Eric Dickerson was a good amount but not as long as Bell and never a full season. Most guys have only been the Preseason or I think Faulk and/or Emmitt say at a couple weeks. Maybe Jamal Anderson too?

Dickerson held out twice - missed two regular season games in 1985 and five regular season games in 1990

Emmitt Smith missed the first two weeks of the 1993 regular season

Faulk held out for 12 days in preseason

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/09000...-back-holdouts

Jamal Anderson came back before the first exhibition game in 1999 after getting his contract done, blew out his knee in week 2 of the regular season, and was never the same after that

http://a.espncdn.com/nfl/news/1999/0920/69142.html

[Moose]

Excellent post polamalubeast ! I agree 100%, I too think he hurt himself and future chances immensely. I'm not sure he'd knock player's on their asses like Conner is capable of either

[Fire Goodell]

In the words of Herm Edwards: If there is one player who's bigger than the game, you need to find a new coach, cause I'll quit

Also about who becomes starter when Bell is back, Conner should keep the job unless he loses it. You don't bench a RB that's averaging 4.4 yards per carry, 10 yards a catch, 7 TD's and #5 in the NFL in rushing, unless the guy coming back is Todd Gurley. You just don't. Not to mention intangibles like his workhorse ethic is contagious and the team seems to rally behind this kid. Not to mention he's earned the favor of the franchise QB.

About Gurley, he is something else. That is without a doubt the top running back talent in the NFL and he seems to be just running away with the rushing title this year. Nobody is going to get paid as much as him for at least a few more years.

[86WARD]

Dickerson held out twice - missed two regular season games in 1985 and five regular season games in 1990

Emmitt Smith missed the first two weeks of the 1993 regular season

Faulk held out for 12 days in preseason

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/09000...-back-holdouts

Jamal Anderson came back before the first exhibition game in 1999 after getting his contract done, blew out his knee in week 2 of the regular season, and was never the same after that

http://a.espncdn.com/nfl/news/1999/0920/69142.html

Nice. So I was close. I knew that Dickerson was a little while and i remember Emmitts very well. Couldn’t remember Jamal Anderson.

[Steeler-in-west]

By going along with Bell, the agent is doing Bell and himself a disservice. This is just getting worse and worse for both of them really.

[AtlantaDan]

Another data point regarding the hazards of signing a RB to a big bucks contract

The Atlanta Falcons will place two-time Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman on injured reserve with a groin injury, coach Dan Quinn said Tuesday....

The Falcons signed Freeman to a five-year, $41.25 million extension last year that included $22 million in guaranteed money....

Freeman, 26, rushed for 865 yards and 7 touchdowns on 196 carries in 2017. He had back-to-back 1,000-rushing-yard seasons in 2015 and '16. Last year, a significant right knee injury limited Freeman's production.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...njured-reserve

[HollywoodSteel]

Dickerson held out twice - missed two regular season games in 1985 and five regular season games in 1990

Emmitt Smith missed the first two weeks of the 1993 regular season

Faulk held out for 12 days in preseason

http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/09000...-back-holdouts

Jamal Anderson came back before the first exhibition game in 1999 after getting his contract done, blew out his knee in week 2 of the regular season, and was never the same after that

http://a.espncdn.com/nfl/news/1999/0920/69142.html

What about Jones-Drew, who now says he wishes he’d sat out the whole season rather than cave to the pressure.

But has ANYONE ever held out when there was no possibility that they could get a contract extension ( per NFL rules) and ONLY held out to preserve his body for the next season?

Holding out is usually a leverage move with contract demands the team COULD actually grant, and thereby end the holdout.

Has anyone ever done exactly what Bell is doing?

[HollywoodSteel]

Another data point regarding the hazards of signing a RB to a big bucks contract

The Atlanta Falcons will place two-time Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman on injured reserve with a groin injury, coach Dan Quinn said Tuesday....

The Falcons signed Freeman to a five-year, $41.25 million extension last year that included $22 million in guaranteed money....

Freeman, 26, rushed for 865 yards and 7 touchdowns on 196 carries in 2017. He had back-to-back 1,000-rushing-yard seasons in 2015 and '16. Last year, a significant right knee injury limited Freeman's production.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...njured-reserve

Yes but from Bell’s point of view that’s EXACTLY why he shouldn’t play this year WITHOUT that big guaranteed contract extension. Bell acknowledges that risk and fears it. He also thinks he’s done enough that in FA some team WOULD take the risk so he doesn’t have to by playing under a one year franchise tag.

I agree that Bell has not made the smartest moves, but this risk of injury is exactly what Bell doesn’t think he should be forced to make by playing under a franchise tag.

Bell is really holding out against the idea of a one year tag more than he’s holding out against the Steelers specifically.

But those are the rules in the CBA his union signed before he even entered the league. He is suffering from the rookie contract rules that kept him from negotiating when he was drafted.

I kind of get the overall point even though I do not agree with the decisions he’s made, ESPECIALLY the decision not to say what he planned on doing and deceiving his teammates.

If he mentioned this plan back when he was negotiating, it might have HELPED him back then.

[86WARD]

What about Jones-Drew, who now says he wishes he’d sat out the whole season rather than cave to the pressure.

But has ANYONE ever held out when there was no possibility that they could get a contract extension ( per NFL rules) and ONLY held out to preserve his body for the next season?

Holding out is usually a leverage move with contract demands the team COULD actually grant, and thereby end the holdout.

Has anyone ever done exactly what Bell is doing?

Bo Jackson? Although he had a job to fall back on and was never on a roster but nonetheless, held out without any kind of contract. Closest I could think of...

I think there was aomeone who held out until Week 10 or when they had to report...just can’t remember who it was.

[AtlantaDan]

Yes but from Bell’s point of view that’s EXACTLY why he shouldn’t play this year WITHOUT that big guaranteed contract extension. Bell acknowledges that risk and fears it. He also thinks he’s done enough that in FA some team WOULD take the risk so he doesn’t have to by playing under a one year franchise tag.

I agree that Bell has not made the smartest moves, but this risk of injury is exactly what Bell doesn’t think he should be forced to make by playing under a franchise tag.

Bell is really holding out against the idea of a one year tag more than he’s holding out against the Steelers specifically.

But those are the rules in the CBA his union signed before he even entered the league. He is suffering from the rookie contract rules that kept him from negotiating when he was drafted.

I kind of get the overall point even though I do not agree with the decisions he’s made, ESPECIALLY the decision not to say what he planned on doing and deceiving his teammates.

If he mentioned this plan back when he was negotiating, it might have HELPED him back then.

I think we are more in agreement than disagreement

As has been posted here repeatedly, Bell's problem is he plays the wrong position to expect teams to fall over each other to sign him to a megabucks deal when you can plug in a third round pick like Conner.

I get his reluctance to expose himself to injury before he cashes in.

I get teams' reluctance to run the risk of signing a RB to a big $$$ contract after the rookie contract even more, given both the injury risk and ability to find a competent, much less expensive replacement.

Steelers got lucky that Bell did not accept their offer, while Falcons apparently have now been burned twice with big contracts to Jamal Anderson and now Freeman

[DesertSteel]

I think we are more in agreement than disagreement

As has been posted here repeatedly, Bell's problem is he plays the wrong position to expect teams to fall over each other to sign him to a megabucks deal when you can plug in a third round pick like Conner.

I get his reluctance to expose himself to injury before he cashes in.

I get teams' reluctance to run the risk of signing a RB to a big $$$ contract after the rookie contract even more, given both the injury risk and ability to find a competent, much less expensive replacement.

Steelers got lucky that Bell did not accept their offer, while Falcons apparently have now been burned twice with big contracts to Jamal Anderson and now Freeman

David Johnson is not doing much for AZ either.

[Mojouw]

David Johnson is not doing much for AZ either.

To be fair to David Johnson that might be more because the coaching staff are idiots, the team is kind of a tire fire, and Rosen is far from a finished product.

The criminal use of DJ to just run dive plays into the middle of the line is total lunacy. They are getting him less than 6 targets per game in the passing attack. Because rather than getting the ball to our best (only?) playmaker, lets have the rookie QB throw to who?

Sorry for the mini-rant. But I just can't stand dumb football. Even the Giants are able to get the ball to Barkley more creatively and the fork sticking out of Eli Manning's back is the size of Staten Island.

[86WARD]

Steelers got lucky that Bell did not accept their offer, while Falcons apparently have now been burned twice with big contracts to Jamal Anderson and now Freeman

What sucks about the Freeman injury is that Atlanta May now try a little harder to retain Tevin Coleman and he could’ve been a nice compliment to Conner at a reasonable price.

[DesertSteel]

To be fair to David Johnson that might be more because the coaching staff are idiots, the team is kind of a tire fire, and Rosen is far from a finished product.

The criminal use of DJ to just run dive plays into the middle of the line is total lunacy. They are getting him less than 6 targets per game in the passing attack. Because rather than getting the ball to our best (only?) playmaker, lets have the rookie QB throw to who?

Sorry for the mini-rant. But I just can't stand dumb football. Even the Giants are able to get the ball to Barkley more creatively and the fork sticking out of Eli Manning's back is the size of Staten Island.

I don’t disagree. But it’s still wasted money no matter how you look at it.

[Mojouw]

I don’t disagree. But it’s still wasted money no matter how you look at it.

You're right. It is wasted money to pay for a sports car and then had the keys to a pack of gibbering idiots.

David Johnson on the same contract on a team with a moderately competent coaching staff would be a devastating offensive weapon.

[86WARD]

You're right. It is wasted money to pay for a sports car and then had the keys to a pack of gibbering idiots.

David Johnson on the same contract on a team with a moderately competent coaching staff would be a devastating offensive weapon.

Even Legendary Larry Fitzgerald is a waste on that team...

[DesertSteel]

Even Legendary Larry Fitzgerald is a waste on that team...

Tell me about it... I live in Arizona and they are painful to watch!

[polamalubeast]

You're right. It is wasted money to pay for a sports car and then had the keys to a pack of gibbering idiots.

David Johnson on the same contract on a team with a moderately competent coaching staff would be a devastating offensive weapon.

The loss of Bruce Arians for the Cardinals is huge.The Cardinals have overrachieve under him in each of his 5 seasons.

Bell has never been in a horrible situation as Gurley was in 2016 and that Johnson is right now.Haley was far from perfect, especially for his playcalling, but I never had a problem with his system.

[polamalubeast]

Steelers got lucky that Bell did not accept their offer, while Falcons apparently have now been burned twice with big contracts to Jamal Anderson and now Freeman

I agree

The falcons are another team that survives offensively without their star RB.

[Born2Steel]

It's never a bad thing to bet on yourself. It does take guts and courage to put yourself out there. In Bell's case however, he was apparently getting very bad advice and thought the risk was much less than it is. Yes he did this to himself. Completely. But he trusted the wrong guy/people.