Great post.
The contention all ratings are down certainly is the official NFL party line to explain ratings turning downward significantly since 2015. Unfortunately for a league trying to convince broadcasters they are getting a good return on their investment and hoping that the next round of broadcast rights sales will result in even more $$$, it may have to explain why declining ratings are the new normal for every sport given the growing popularity of the NBA, which operates under the same TV distribution system.
At the end of the 2017-18 regular season, NBA ratings were up across all four networks when compared to last season. ABC led the way at +17%, while TNT was +13%, ESPN +4% and NBA TV +1%. It was the NBA’s highest-rated season in five years. The audience growth was led by hard-to-reach young adults, with ratings for 18-34 demographic up by 14% and the 18-49 age group up by 15%. The median age of the NBA viewer is relatively young at 42, compared to the NFL (50) and Major League Baseball (57)....
There are a number of reasons why the NBA is gaining in popularity, especially with young adults. One reason is the games are not too long. An average NBA game in regulation lasts around 2 hours and 15 minutes. The 48-minute game has end to end action, looks good on television and has a lot of scoring. By comparison, in 2017, an average nine-inning Major League Baseball game lasted a record high three hours and five minutes. MLB is now trying to address this with rules changes including limiting manager, coach and player visits to the pitching mound. The average length of an NFL game in regulation (60 minutes of game clock time) is even longer at three hours and seven minutes, with only 11 minutes in which the football is actually in play. A televised NFL game now has an average of 70 ads.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradadg.../#580ec7b32ecb
As the article embedded in this tweet states (if you click on the link in the tweet it should get around the WSJ paywall), some NFL owners may be considering whether franchise values are close to a market top and that it might be time to start considering cashing out.
I am old enough to remember the shift from baseball to the NFL as the most popular U.S. sport. For a variety of reasons, including attention spans, more boys (& girls) playing basketball than football when growing up, and football participation being impacted by the sport potentially causing brain damage, a similar shift from the NFL to the NBA may be coming in the U.S. The NBA already leaves the NFL in the dust outside of the U.S. (although both sports trail far behind what the rest of the world calls football).