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Thread: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Craic View Post
    With the exception of perhaps one or two years, I think you're absolutely right. If Bell leaves next year, he'll be on a "prove it" highhorse to the league that they all screwed up by not paying him what he wanted. The year after that, though, he's going to struggle.

    One thing in Bell's favor, however, he's not a speed back, so age isn't going to hurt him like it did Willie Parker.
    I'd agree if I thought will power played a bigger part than it does.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    I’m not mad at either party when it comes to bell, Steelers made a better then fair offer IMO, but Bell is betting on himself and wants to get paid it is what it is. Someone will pay him 15
    Million plus next year just glad it’s not us. Don’t get it twisted I’ll be rooting for him this year he’s a great player but the. It’s time to move on


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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    No big surprise. I'm so over Bell and his drama.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Lady Steel View Post
    No big surprise. I'm so over Bell and his drama.
    me too, I don't mind seeing drama when I go to the theatre but I don't want to see it when I'm following my beloved Steelers.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    I hope that Bell...

    -has an all-time, record-setting season.

    -brings a 7th Lombardi to Pittsburgh.

    -gets his $20 million/season contract in 2019... with the Browns.


    Really though, if he gets Ben another ring, I don’t care if he gets paid a ridiculous contract (by some other team).

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    There is a version of this where Bell plays on a series of ludicrously expensive 1 year deals. Be it in Pittsburgh or elsewhere. I just don’t see teams going multiple years with Demarco Murray falling off a cliff like 5 minutes ago.




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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline


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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Le'Veon Bell: "I want to be a Steeler, as long as I get payed what I want"

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Craic View Post
    One thing in Bell's favor, however, he's not a speed back, so age isn't going to hurt him like it did Willie Parker.
    I think this is a big misconception, and not for any reason that has to do with Willie Parker (yes, I do still hate him, though).

    No running back's game is "based" on speed, because having breakaway speed doesn't mean shit until you've already gotten past the first eight or nine guys. Until you're past the linebackers, everybody has a potential angle on you, which means your speed is completely negated until you dodge them, break a tackle, or find a place where they're blocked out for you. If you don't have the ability to do that, you're not going to be a good running back. (Willie Parker was very much below-average at all of those aspects of the running game, but maintained a deceptively high YPC and season totals with a few long runs here and there. Terribly inconsistent, like the guy who hits 25 home runs a year but strikes out 180 times and has a .220 batting average. The Rob Deer or Dave Kingman of football, who kills as many rallies as he starts.)

    Anyway, the point is, the skills Bell uses to get past the line of scrimmage are the same skills that Parker used, or that almost any running back uses. He's just a lot better at it than most. But when you lose that half-step of elusiveness and quickness, either you can adjust to the new reality or you can't, and there's no telling ahead of time which it will be.

    Really the only exceptions to this are the true straight-ahead power backs who make their living by running over people. But most of them have the opposite problem, which is that they can only crash into people like that for a few years until they can't take it anymore. Jerome Bettis was a rare individual indeed.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    In my opinion, this article on Bell is stunningly accurate! OVERRATED.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news...i1aezg4ycp7yh0

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    In my opinion, this article on Bell is stunningly accurate! OVERRATED.

    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news...i1aezg4ycp7yh0

    An interesting take ... seems kind of similar to the idea of "player usage rate" in the NBA.

    Like, James Harden is among the league's top scorers - but of course he is, because he's also a ball hog who takes almost 40% of his team's shots.

    I don't think Bell is really "hogging" the ball because football doesn't work that way, but it does make you consider: You don't "lose" 85 receptions and 650 yards if Bell isn't on the field. They're just 85 passing attempts that would go to someone else. What would be the expected outcome? I don't know, but it wouldn't be zero.

    In any case - what's the difference between Bell and a merely good running back who would command $8 million? Maybe 300 or 400 receiving yards. If that's worth an additional $9 million, you're on crack. Especially considering some of that yardage would simply be reallocated to the tight ends and third-down specialist RBs. Maybe not the disaster some are anticipating.

    On the other hand, look at our overall offensive rankings in points and yardage before Bell compared to with Bell. Went from the teens and 20s to the single digits across the board. There is obviously some value to being strong at RB. But again, the bar to clear may just mean being good at the position, not All-Pro level.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    I don't think that the article painted Bell as a ball hog. Obviously the term can't even apply in Football, IMO. But that his greatest value was the fact he didn't need subbed out. But at what point does the cost outweigh the value? I agree with the writer that Bell saved the Steelers from themselves. I don't mind a RB by committee. This part of the article stood out the most:

    However, even without paying Bell like he is something beyond a running back, at least in the eyes of the player and his agent, the Steelers still are investing dramatically more at the position than the teams they are chasing. Bell will play in 2018 with the second-highest salary cap hit on the team. None of the past three Super Bowl champions had a running back who ranked in the top 20. None had a back earn even $2 million. Five Philadelphia backs counted a combined $3.21 million against the cap last season. That’s a quarter of what Pittsburgh paid Bell on the 2017 franchise tag.
    And yet the Eagles ranked No. 3 last season in rushing yards. The Steelers were 20th. The Steelers were third in passing, but Bell’s 655 receiving yards represented only 15 percent of the team’s total. No. 3 wideout Martavis Bryant nearly matched that on 20 fewer targets. They ranked only 18th in red-zone touchdown percentage, an astonishing failure given the value they're assigning to Bell's talents.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    More chippy comments from the agent

    “The Steelers have a unique way of structuring deals,” Bakari said. “These contracts are not fully guaranteed. Le’Veon plays a position that has one of the shortest lifespans in the league. We have to focus on the guarantee. It’s safe to say he’ll get a guarantee [as a free agent] that is more traditional, and he’ll be protected for the balance of his career.” ...

    “In five years, he has amassed more yards than anyone in the history of the league. In reality, due to injuries and other circumstances, in four years he has amassed more yards than any offensive skilled player who dons a gold jacket, anyone who has a bust in Canton. We are currently looking at a once-in-a-generation player.”

    http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201807170123

    In other words if he didn't repeatedly get injured, repeatedly suspended for drug use (aka "other circumstances"), and need to play himself into form in 2017 his stats would be even better

    We will see how safe it is to say Bell can get a much better deal elsewhere in 2019 after he gets through 2018 - good luck with that if he drops off in 2018 as much as he did in 2017 or has another major injury

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    An interesting take ... seems kind of similar to the idea of "player usage rate" in the NBA.

    Like, James Harden is among the league's top scorers - but of course he is, because he's also a ball hog who takes almost 40% of his team's shots.

    I don't think Bell is really "hogging" the ball because football doesn't work that way, but it does make you consider: You don't "lose" 85 receptions and 650 yards if Bell isn't on the field. They're just 85 passing attempts that would go to someone else. What would be the expected outcome? I don't know, but it wouldn't be zero.

    In any case - what's the difference between Bell and a merely good running back who would command $8 million? Maybe 300 or 400 receiving yards. If that's worth an additional $9 million, you're on crack. Especially considering some of that yardage would simply be reallocated to the tight ends and third-down specialist RBs. Maybe not the disaster some are anticipating.

    On the other hand, look at our overall offensive rankings in points and yardage before Bell compared to with Bell. Went from the teens and 20s to the single digits across the board. There is obviously some value to being strong at RB. But again, the bar to clear may just mean being good at the position, not All-Pro level.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/
    Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    This says it all:

    However, even without paying Bell like he is something beyond a running back, at least in the eyes of the player and his agent, the Steelers still are investing dramatically more at the position than the teams they are chasing. Bell will play in 2018 with the second-highest salary cap hit on the team. None of the past three Super Bowl champions had a running back who ranked in the top 20. None had a back earn even $2 million. Five Philadelphia backs counted a combined $3.21 million against the cap last season. That’s a quarter of what Pittsburgh paid Bell on the 2017 franchise tag.

    And yet the Eagles ranked No. 3 last season in rushing yards. The Steelers were 20th. The Steelers were third in passing, but Bell’s 655 receiving yards represented only 15 percent of the team’s total. No. 3 wideout Martavis Bryant nearly matched that on 20 fewer targets. They ranked only 18th in red-zone touchdown percentage, an astonishing failure given the value they're assigning to Bell's talents.
    Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news...i1aezg4ycp7yh0

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...
    Yeah, I mean it's always easier to have an all-around good player than two or three different specialists who you have to rotate based on the situation. If you have, like, Mewelde Moore in the game regularly, there is just as good of a chance of the opponent exploiting that to their advantage as there is of you exploiting it to your own advantage.

    That's the one thing that makes me nervous about next year: We don't really have what I would call a good, well-rounded running back. Just a bunch of situational guys and question marks. I'm sure we'll do something to address that between now and then, but as it stands it would be a problem. I do think we'll be fine as long as we pick up even a pretty-good guy who can get you 4-5 yards more often than not. We kind of have to be, because the end of the Bell-Einstein era is coming no matter what now.
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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...

    Exactly. He makes everyone on the field better every time he steps foot on it.

    He blocks like a pass protection specialist. He is an elite runner. He is the best receiving RB in the NFL by a significant margin. He doesn't turn the ball over.

    Some think he's overrated. However, some of the traits I listed above are the most underrated things any player can perform for a team. Put them all together and you have maybe the most complete running back in the history of the NFL. And no....I don't think I'm overstating that.

    I also agree that Haley never figured out how to maximize his talents. Haley almost eliminated play action passing from the playbook, and didn't dictate one on one coverage with favorable matchups as much as he should have to take advantage of the way he affects the entire field.

    Let's see how this whole thing plays out. If they win the Super Bowl, keeping him was worth it. After that, they can concentrate on drafting more running backs or another feature back.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    Exactly. He makes everyone on the field better every time he steps foot on it.

    He blocks like a pass protection specialist. He is an elite runner. He is the best receiving RB in the NFL by a significant margin. He doesn't turn the ball over.

    Some think he's overrated. However, some of the traits I listed above are the most underrated things any player can perform for a team. Put them all together and you have maybe the most complete running back in the history of the NFL. And no....I don't think I'm overstating that.


    I also agree that Haley never figured out how to maximize his talents. Haley almost eliminated play action passing from the playbook, and didn't dictate one on one coverage with favorable matchups as much as he should have to take advantage of the way he affects the entire field.

    Let's see how this whole thing plays out. If they win the Super Bowl, keeping him was worth it. After that, they can concentrate on drafting more running backs or another feature back.

    I wouldn't go that far. Bell is basically Marshall Faulk or Ladainian Tomlinson but with no other active players to really compare him to, because the NFL running game has been thoroughly gutted over the course of the last 15 years as everyone tried to lemming the Patriots. Thurman Thomas, Marcus Allen, Herschel Walker, Roger Craig - you can go down a whole list of players who had similar capabilities. Not an especially long list, but there used to be at least a couple of guys in the league like that at any given time. Now it's like seeing an albino tiger.

    I wonder if the pendulum will start swinging back the other way a bit once people realize that you actually can win in ways other than running an offense that looks like it was lifted straight from Madden 18.
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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...
    One thing we know with absolute certainty based on the evidence: it's not worth a Super Bowl win.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Bell is great, but he can't carry a team like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. He is a product of the system. He will be missed, but his individual contributions to any team will peak by this upcoming season or they already have.

    If he gets lucky and lands on a SB winner on his next contract, then so be it, but remember most often it's the defense that wins that game..
    All Defense!

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by ALLD View Post
    Bell is great, but he can't carry a team like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. He is a product of the system. He will be missed, but his individual contributions to any team will peak by this upcoming season or they already have.

    If he gets lucky and lands on a SB winner on his next contract, then so be it, but remember most often it's the defense that wins that game..
    Does make me wonder how he would do behind a mediocre line. This line knows his style, which is quirky. How many other lines can hold those blocks so he can find a hole. Time will tell.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by DesertSteel View Post
    One thing we know with absolute certainty based on the evidence: it's not worth a Super Bowl win.


    I know how you feel about him, but does that mean Dan Marino wasn't worth a Super Bowl win? You can't pin that on one guy. He wasn't the reason the team didn't move on in the playoffs last season. He was great. The defense shit the bed.

    I just think it's silly to lay all the blame of a 53 man roster at the feet of Bell. You can hate him and his contract demands, but he hasn't been the reason for the team's failures.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    I know how you feel about him, but does that mean Dan Marino wasn't worth a Super Bowl win? You can't pin that on one guy. He wasn't the reason the team didn't move on in the playoffs last season. He was great. The defense shit the bed.

    I just think it's silly to lay all the blame of a 53 man roster at the feet of Bell. You can hate him and his contract demands, but he hasn't been the reason for the team's failures.
    Agreed he has not been “the” reason for the playoff shortcomings but missing the 2014 and 2015 playoffs along with the Pats championship game didn’t help when the offense is built around that player as a major passing option as well as the showcase running option

    Injuries can happen to everyone but repeatedly being injured is part of Bell’s resume and illustrates the risk of paying RBs mega-contracts compared to WRs and QBs

    Can’t win and establish your value if you can’t play

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by ALLD View Post
    Bell is great, but he can't carry a team like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. He is a product of the system. He will be missed, but his individual contributions to any team will peak by this upcoming season or they already have.

    If he gets lucky and lands on a SB winner on his next contract, then so be it, but remember most often it's the defense that wins that game..


    Go watch some film of his last year at Michigan St. His line was horrendous.

    Barry Sanders carried his team to what exactly?

    Earl Campbell carried his team to what exactly?

    Some of the comments you guys are making are purely emotional and not objective in any way.

    Look, I'm on record as saying he's not worth the money he's asking for because I don't think any running back is worth that kind of money against the salary cap and the production that you can still get from lesser backs while strengthening the rest of the roster. But just because I feel that way doesn't mean he's not a great player. Paying too much for his services may prevent the team from winning a Super Bowl, but it's not because he isn't good enough as a player. Question the money....not the talent.

  25. #55

    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    Question the money....not the talent.
    This. Completely and totally, with one caveat. "Question the money and intelligence . . . not the talent."

    Two things we know for a fact about Le'Veon Bell. He is a very hard worker, and he is very talented. One other thing that has become clear about him, he's a tone-deaf bonehead.


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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    Go watch some film of his last year at Michigan St. His line was horrendous.

    Barry Sanders carried his team to what exactly?

    Earl Campbell carried his team to what exactly?

    Some of the comments you guys are making are purely emotional and not objective in any way.

    Look, I'm on record as saying he's not worth the money he's asking for because I don't think any running back is worth that kind of money against the salary cap and the production that you can still get from lesser backs while strengthening the rest of the roster. But just because I feel that way doesn't mean he's not a great player. Paying too much for his services may prevent the team from winning a Super Bowl, but it's not because he isn't good enough as a player. Question the money....not the talent.
    Nailed it.


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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles problem now

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    They ranked only 18th in red-zone touchdown percentage, an astonishing failure given the value they're assigning to Bell's talents.
    I think Haley had a much bigger hand in that than Bell...

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    I wouldn't go that far. Bell is basically Marshall Faulk or Ladainian Tomlinson but with no other active players to really compare him to, because the NFL running game has been thoroughly gutted over the course of the last 15 years as everyone tried to lemming the Patriots. Thurman Thomas, Marcus Allen, Herschel Walker, Roger Craig - you can go down a whole list of players who had similar capabilities. Not an especially long list, but there used to be at least a couple of guys in the league like that at any given time. Now it's like seeing an albino tiger.
    I know I will get flak for this but Isaac Redman could do all of those things as well, just not at Bells level (or at least the Steelers didn't trust him to try it). He was a great pass blocker, good hands out of the backfield, good after the catch, and when he had 15 or more carries he had a few 100 yard games.

    The part that drives me nuts is when Bell and his agent act like he has invented a new position. The majority of his catches are at or behind the LOS like every other RB in the history of the league. Being asked to block is nothing new either. He is a great at what he does but it makes him a great RB, not a magical unicorn who shoots rainbows out of his butt.

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    Re: Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

    This is all a moderately complex math problem.

    Bell is making 14.5 million on the tag this year. Based on the best available speculative reports, the Steelers were guaranteeing a signing bonus and then a series of sorta guarantees through the first two seasons.

    https://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/0...signing-bonus/

    So Bell likely got offered something very very similar to AB's original contract prior to the extension -- https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsbur...io-brown-6702/ -- as that contract has served as the template for all non-QB big $$$ contracts given out by the team in the last few years.

    That means the only #'s that matter are the guaranteed signing bonus and the first years where the dead money is bigger than the cap hit. What the team likelyoffered is the $10 million guaranteed signing bonus and then another 23 million in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. That would leave only around 37 million spread across the final 3 years of the deal. That means it was a two year deal for around 33 million dollars most likely and then a series of 10-12 million dollar per year options. That is a reasonable offer by the Steelers. It is a totally beatable offer from Bell's perspective.

    He is already going to earn 14.5 million dollars this year. So he just has to get 19 million from some team up-front next year and he beats the first 2 years of the Steelers offer. If he puts up 1800-2000 yards from scrimmage and 10-14 TDs with no major injuries, I bet that some team with cap room will throw 20-25 million up front at him without hesitation. Look at what Watkins, Landry, and other inferior players got on the open market this past off-season. There is nothing dumber in the NFL than the GM of a 7-9 to 9-7 franchise with cap space that thinks they are close to contention.

    Long story short - take a look at this -- https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-c...watkins-14413/

    21 million at signing and 30 million guaranteed. If Bell gets something like that, he exceeds the Steelers offer, not by a lot in total dollars but by 10 million or so in guaranteed cash. It is a massive role of the dice. But I suspect there are very few elite athletes that will not choose to bet on themselves 10 out of 10 times.

    Also, attempting to link Bell and Redman was the highlight of my morning.

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