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Thread: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

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    Senior Member Array title="Mojouw has a reputation beyond repute"> Mojouw's Avatar

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    How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    I've been thinking about this the last few weeks. Wanted to know how people approach draft value/talent level stuff. For instance, do you believe that there should only be 30 or so 1st round grades because that is how many spots there are or should it be a draft class by draft class evaluation?

    Here is what I am thinking. Many sites will say that "Player X is the 55th ranked prospect in this year's class making him solid value in the later portions of the second round or early in the third." At first this statement seems totally straightforward and logical. But the more I think about it, the more I think it is totally meaningless BS.

    What if the 2018 draft class is just a terrible class (even before they play in the NFL) and there are just only like 14 kids that in other classes would even be considered as "1st round" guys. Do we just tag like 2 dozen other guys with a first round grade to make the numbers work? What about the reverse? What if Player X is a phenomenal player in a loaded draft class...and any other year he would go in the top 35? How does that kid grade out now?

    I'm wondering if the idea might be to evaluate the talent and not put a round "value" on it? Maybe the talent is the constant, and the round is the variable from class to class? For instance either a OT can move his feet well enough to protect the edge in the NFL or he can't. On year there are 6 kids that can do that. On year there are 3. The talent is the same, but the value changes...?

    Or I'm all wet and I have just thought about this a bit too much! To be fair, this line of thinking is not original to me nor totally my own. Just some thoughts I have pulled together over the last few drafts based on things I have seen and read. Interested in how others feel about it.

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    Senior Member Array title="teegre has a reputation beyond repute"> teegre's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    Good question, that deserves a well-thought-out answer. (Here is my quick response.)

    Let’s use QB as an example.

    In a nutshell, a lot of the QBs that have been drafted in R1-R3 in recent drafts, have not been one of the Top 100 players in that draft. But, the position of QB is so crucial to a team’s success, that a team will draft the “50th best” player at 15, simply because he’s a QB.

    If it were based solely off of who is best, Quenton Nelson would be the consensus #1 overall pick. But, because he plays OG he might go as late as 12th overall (depending on trades in the top 11).

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    Senior Member Array title="pczach has a reputation beyond repute"> pczach's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    I first rate everyone on a self-defined scale on what a player's value is.

    In other words, I would look at every player and decide if he's a first round talent.

    Then you have to adjust the rating of each player based on the talent level of the draft. For example, there may only be 18 of the top 32 players that are rated as a first round grade when comparing them historically at their positions and the relative talent level expected to justify a first round grade. However, in a year when the depth of elite talent isn't that good, lesser graded players get elevated to the first round because talent is relative. Certain positions also get elevated because of demand. Quarterbacks are the poster child for this.

    The other thing to consider is the views of "experts". There are always players that are rated as 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks because they don't have the measurables, they played against inferior competition, or they have injury history that affects the draft rating by these "experts", but I believe they will be as good or better than the players that are universally judged as 1st round talent. I still don't rate them as first rounders, but they are players that I would specifically target in later rounds believing that they are elite talent that has been downgraded or been poorly evaluated IMO. Such was the case when I stated Le'Veon Bell would be the best RB in the NFL even though he ended up going in the second round. The same with Javon Hargrave, who I had a man crush on when he came out. I believed they were as good or better than 1st round rated players. I can't say they are first rounders because the powers that be set the bar. I simply look at players and look for elite talent at bargain basement prices.

    I hope that doesn't sound too convoluted and you guys understand what I'm trying to say. I often don't make sense to anyone but myself.

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    Senior Member Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute"> Born2Steel's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    I do not compare player to player first of all. If a player has what the Steelers need and is a system fit he goes on the list. Use the expert's opinions to get a starting list of players to look at, but their draft round values mean nothing as far as value to the steelers, IMO. The reason why I have so many on my list currently.

    Also, I do not buy into the "lesser competition" argument. Football players are football players and there are too many examples of these guys for that to hold value. Looking at actual game footage of multiple games is too easy to not use them over conference bias.

    Players that meet the athleticism, production numbers, system fit, and will upgrade a role become my BPA list. Immediate need is not a concern if the player is an upgrade.
    EXample: If my top CB is available but we are currently set at CB, the ONLY way I draft CB is if the player is an instant upgrade over the current roster.

    Off field issues that result in arrest/suspension, and injury history play a vital role in narrowing down players also. Repeat offenders, and/or multiple injuries to the same muscle groups are red flags that I cannot ignore. Kids do dumb things and players get hurt. It's the pattern that I look at. Nagging shoulder or knee injuries over seasons drop every player out of the 1st for me.

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    Senior Member Array title="Dwinsgames has a reputation beyond repute"> Dwinsgames's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    I personally skip a bunch of players lately , I do not look at ( intentionally ) anyone who does not fill a need , just to many players to get through and even then I only get a good look at some and an acquaintance with many ...

    I will watch 2 games at most of any player unless I become enamored at some skillset he may possess and if they do I dig and dig until I simply cant find much else on them ..if you have not got me interested by the second game you are just a guy to me ...

    I use a scale 5-4-3-2-1

    5 is elite talent
    4 is highly productive pro
    3 solid starter but not a star
    2 quality depth /spot starter/ developmental guy with big potential upside
    1 special teams ability but will struggle to find a roster spot on the regular unit

    if I do not feel as though 3 is possible chances are they do not get a game 2 ...
    if I feel they have a 3 or greater they get a 2nd game and if I still feel as good I often watch more ..

    key is catch my eye quickly and then make me want more ( like finding a woman when I was a single guy )
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles problem now

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    Senior Member Array title="teegre has a reputation beyond repute"> teegre's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    key is catch my eye quickly and then make me want more
    I call this the “blink” technique, based of of Malcolm Gladwell’s book. (A human’s instantaneous assessment of a situation is surprisingly accurate.)

    If a player catches my eye, I watch more. Then, once that player has my attention, I then evaluate more closely. Some players (Deone Bucannon being my best example) stand out over & over & over... and then, the more that I watch, the more that I like.

    As in: I do not have time to watch every play from every player. If I don’t “notice” them, then they aren’t “worth” evaluating very closely.

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    Senior Member Array title="Dwinsgames has a reputation beyond repute"> Dwinsgames's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    Quote Originally Posted by teegre View Post
    I call this the “blink” technique, based of of Malcolm Gladwell’s book. (A human’s instantaneous assessment of a situation is surprisingly accurate.)

    If a player catches my eye, I watch more. Then, once that player has my attention, I then evaluate more closely. Some players (Deone Bucannon being my best example) stand out over & over & over... and then, the more that I watch, the more that I like.

    As in: I do not have time to watch every play from every player. If I don’t “notice” them, then they aren’t “worth” evaluating very closely.
    well put and spot on
    Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles problem now

  8. #8
    Senior Member Array title="pczach has a reputation beyond repute"> pczach's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    I personally skip a bunch of players lately , I do not look at ( intentionally ) anyone who does not fill a need , just to many players to get through and even then I only get a good look at some and an acquaintance with many ...

    I will watch 2 games at most of any player unless I become enamored at some skillset he may possess and if they do I dig and dig until I simply cant find much else on them ..if you have not got me interested by the second game you are just a guy to me ...

    I use a scale 5-4-3-2-1

    5 is elite talent
    4 is highly productive pro
    3 solid starter but not a star
    2 quality depth /spot starter/ developmental guy with big potential upside
    1 special teams ability but will struggle to find a roster spot on the regular unit

    if I do not feel as though 3 is possible chances are they do not get a game 2 ...
    if I feel they have a 3 or greater they get a 2nd game and if I still feel as good I often watch more ..

    key is catch my eye quickly and then make me want more ( like finding a woman when I was a single guy )


    I agree with you and teegre about a player jumping out at you when you watch them play. I have an immediate gut reaction to a player after watching them play a bit. I have been watching live games and would see a player do a couple things and just say to myself......Who the hell is that! They weren't on my radar as a big time player, but after seeing them with my own eyes I start breaking them down and watching as much as I can on them.

    Anthony Miller comes to mind from a couple years ago. I heard about a young WR from Memphis mentioned, but I had never seen him play. I finally got to see him play and.....WHOA!....This guy is amazing!

    By the way, if there is anybody here that hasn't watched this kid play the WR position....go watch some tape on him right now. I looooooove this kid. Watching someone like him play so hard, and then reading the backstory on him......I want him!

    I don't care what the WR rankings say. This kid is going to be a stud.

  9. #9
    Senior Member Array title="teegre has a reputation beyond repute"> teegre's Avatar

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    Re: How Do You Assess Draft Value?

    Quote Originally Posted by pczach View Post
    I often don't make sense to anyone but myself.

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