No way. However if the Giants trade OBJ to the Rams and clear cap space, I’d offer them the right to negotiate with Bell for that 2nd Pick and draft either Barkley or more likely a potential successor to Ben.Originally Posted by teegre
No way. However if the Giants trade OBJ to the Rams and clear cap space, I’d offer them the right to negotiate with Bell for that 2nd Pick and draft either Barkley or more likely a potential successor to Ben.
I like this train of thought, except there is NO way we’d get the #2 overall pick.
First, Bell isn’t worth that much (not even Aaron Rodgers would net a top 5 pick). And, secondly, the Giants could simply keep their own pick & draft the younger, cheaper RB (Barkley).
Pick #34 is a possibility...
put me down for Sony Michel the backup to Chubb ... better hands out of the backfield a do it all 3 down back who while a backup still managed 590 carries -3600+ yards rushing and 64 catches -621 yards 39 combined TDs all while backing up Chubb for 4 years at Georgia ... in round 2-3
Kenny Pickett is who I though he was .. Eagles problem now
Could be this years Alvin Kamara. Hate saying this but he has 'Patriots' written all over him. They love those all around RB's.
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Agreed. If Guice was to be drafted at #28 I'm sure they'll talk to a few teams on day two that will pick in the early 2nd round.
1. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia 2. Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia 3. Maason Smith, DT, LSU 3. Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan 4. MJ Devonshire, CB, Pittsburgh 6. Tommy Eichenberg, ILB, Ohio State 6. Ryan Watts, S, Texas
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I agree. I like him much better than Guice or Chubb.
“I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play!” - Jack Lambert
Okay. This all doesn't make sense to me and most of what you all post around here usually does. So I need to understand the valuations that are being used here. I think it is along the following:
1. Bell is not worth (and maybe no RB) is worth 14-20 million per season on average.
2. However, RB production from "elite" 3 down guys who are threats running and receiving is vitally important to an NFL team and of high enough value to be considered "worthy" of a top 35-50 pick in the draft.
3. Bell is just such a RB as is described in Item 2.
So why is a RB worth the Steelers or any other team's first round or high second round pick, but not worth a second massive contract? I realize that RB's decline and often suddenly but it isn't like they are going to keel over at 27. Why would any team trade a top 35 draft pick for the right to pay Bell big $$$'s if that is a "stupid" decision for the Steelers? Wouldn't it be the same for any other team?
Almost every other position, elite guys are signed to second contracts that push out into that 10+ average annual value territory. Remember, like 5 years ago when no one paid guards? Now guys routinely get 10-13 million per year on 2nd and even 3rd contracts. Traditionally, offensive skill position guys are paid at higher rates - except RBs which have traditionally been viewed as disposable.
Bottom line, Bell is kind of an abrasive personality and I am not certain he is super duper smart or anything, but in a league where Randall Cobb gets paid 10 million per and Donte Moncrief got 9.6 million guaranteed and a variety of other 6-10 million per year contracts for guys who gain far less yards and player much fewer snaps than Bell; I'm not so sure that it is possible to just say "yeah -- anything over $12 million is just ridiculous to even contemplate."
I'll stop ranting, but I will ask the question as simply as I know how: If Bell is not worth much over $10-12 million per year -- why would anyone give up a draft pick to sign him for more than that? If he is worth a top 50 draft pick, why is he not worth the big contract?
Last edited by Mojouw; 03-27-2018 at 06:40 PM. Reason: clarity
where we're picking at #28, it's almost like the early second round. and if we can select the 2nd best RB in the draft with that pick then it's pretty good value imo...
Whether we replace him now or later depends a lot on whether we think it's going to become a problem this season or not. We think we're going to get a full, productive season out of Bell-Einstein, we can wait until next year to bring in someone else. I think you're right that RB is one of the most "plug and play" positions in the game, where a rookie could come in and not be lost.
That would be the ideal situation, because whether we like it or not, drafting a RB now means we ARE giving up more this year than most. Either a blue-chip player for a dire need at LB, or a possible QB successor, for which the chance doesn't come along often.
I don't think Conner is going the long-term answer; he is a good change of pace back and would probably be an OK stopgap starter for a year, but I just don't see that special something. Pulling the franchise tag from Bell-Einstein would be useless because we don't have much to spend the money on.
To your other point later on - I don't doubt that Bell is worth $12M or more, and that the market for RBs is head-scratchingly low compared to other positions and their impact. I just don't think he's going to take our offer in any case. We've offered him that much and more. There's also the matter of the team's situation. Meaning that for a team with $60M in cap space, it might be worth it to sign Bell-Einstein for $17M of that. For a team with $6M in cap space, it is not only more difficult, but can start costing you in other ways too that make it less worth it. In any case, probably a moot point since I'm 99% sure his mind is already made up.
See you Space Cowboy ...
If we pick a RB in round 1, it's a safe bet that the franchise tag is getting yanked and Bell is sent packing, which I don't mind if it happens.
Bell probably won't like it at all, but that's what you get for thinking you're bigger than the team.
Why would we yank the franchise tag? It doesn't benefit us unless the cap space lets us bring in a big-time player, and there probably aren't going to be any by that point in the offseason. Maybe if it let us pull off a trade for a high-cost player, or someone becomes luckily available as a training camp cut. But more likely it just means Bell-Einstein plays out this season and is gone.
See you Space Cowboy ...
1. Other teams have more cap space. They can actually OVERpay for Bell’s services.
2. I get the feeling that Bell is pulling a Barry Bonds: rejecting EVERY offer, because he wants to be a free agent. His latest comment about wanting to be paid as much as AB ($17 million), when he knows that that is at least $2 million beyond the current offer signifies this. Why would he do that???... because, as #1 says: other teams can pay more.
3. Colbert is done with Bell. The final offer is out there, and Colbert is preparing to play the upcoming season as though Bell is not a part of the team (via Bell sitting out OR via Bell being traded).
SUMMATION:
If the Steelers draft Guice, they have the option of keeping Bell for one year... or, trading him. And, we are discussing the hypothetical (yet possible) trade scenarios.
For example:
Bell to the Colts (with their plethora of draft picks AND available cap space) makes sense for both teams.
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The question is what teams are going to take a RB in R's 1-2? That will determine where a lot of the top 5 RBs fall. The 3-5 rated guys could all still be there when we pick at the end of 2, and one of them left in R3.
Okay. I can see some of that. I still haven't seen where Bell said the $17 million thing, but I'll just take everyone's word for it.
I just don't get the other teams will trade for him thing. They will just wait for Steelers to release him this year or next. This kinda reminds me of debates I used to have with people about Pouncey. There was a time where it was argued he was injury-prone, over-rated, and not worth his current and/or pending contract. But that same player would have teams lining up around the block to give 2nd or low 1st round picks to the Steelers for his services. If he indeed has that value and demand league-wide he is worth his contract.
Kinda sorta the same logic with Bell. I also get that the Steelers put their top offer on the table with guys and then they either take it or they don't. I guess it comes down to where the top of that offer really is. And we may never know that. But I just can't envision a single scenario where another franchise lines up to pay Bell a record contract AND gives the Steelers a top 35-50 draft pick to boot.
What leverage do the Steelers have in ANY trade negotiation? Absolutely none. Can't trade Bell if he doesn't sign the tag tender. If Bell doesn't like the trade destination, he can just not sign it. Teams can't negotiate (I mean we all know they would, but still...) with Bell by the letter of the law - so who knows how they would gauge his reaction.
And on top of that, it is like trying to sell a slightly used high end boat (Bell in this analogy) to your neighbor. Dude knows it is awesome. He also knows that you can't make the payments on it anymore. Knows that if he buys it off you he has to make payments on it - even if they are payments he can afford. Why would he also let you sleep with his wife (draft picks in this scenario) as a sweetener?
I am one of the few that thinks his value is in that $15M range. I’d have no problem giving him that kind of money. He’s a special talent that doesn’t come around every day and isn’t easily replaced. I just don’t see him being easily replaced.
As far as the second pick, Bell is arguably the best RB in the league and a proven talent. There’s nothing out there that says Barkley is the next Bell and there’s just as good a chance that Barkley could be the next KiJana Carter. It’s all unknown until these guys get onto the field, maybe they are in the right situation and he becomes the next Bell or maybe he’s not and he turns into KiJana Carter...there’s no history there and no NFL game tape as there is with Bell. Sure Bell costs a ton more but if the Giants are serious about unloading OBJ, they have the money and as OBJ would be a great poster child for the Rams new stadium, Bell would be a pretty nice player to throw up on a billboard in Times Square. I wouldn’t trade Bell for the 34th pick.
Yeah, that I can easily understand. If Bell is worth $15 million then a high first round pick is a legit expectation in return.
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Well you said it yourself, Bell wants AB money which is far over 15m. I think Art closed the books on this one anyway, he knows he's dealing with a moron.
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This hits on my dilemma as well. Bell has more value to this offense than he does for other teams. Basically, this offense is run to use his talents in the most efficient way. A new RB takes time to get in sync with. This is why most fans are angry about Bell missing TC after all. There are two exemptions to the learning curve, speed and power. There don't seem to be any Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell in this draft though. To me, Bo Scarbrough is the most complete RB after Barkley in terms of speed AND power. I just don't know if either comes right in and picks up where Bell left off. Conner dropped passes he should have caught, and is non-existent as a pass blocker. Toussaint is a talented pass blocker but has shown nothing as a RB. So, if we miss with the draft pick, we are screwed in the run game. I do think a RB gets drafted again this year but not to replace Bell just yet. I'm thinking the Steelers force Bell to play one more season under the tag, and move on with Conner and new rookie RB, and possibly looking for another in next year's draft. I just don't think we can afford to not keep Bell at this point. Not if our sights are truly set on #7 now.
If the Steelers do draft a rb and decide to go with him. I don't see them letting Bell walk and want something in return eventually in trade and don't blame them. I didn't care that they let Holmes go for next to nothing even when they was pissed at him and tired of his bs.
I'm with you and agree about Bell. Also understand about talented Penn State rbs flopping in the NFL. Barkley is the best all around Penn State rb I seen in the last 35 years. I doubt he will flop and for some reason see him being a NYC Giant after the draft. Get your point too and better going with a proven commodity
Last edited by JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue; 03-27-2018 at 09:28 PM.
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4 ypc = 15 million?
"With love, with patience, and with Faith
....She'll make her way" ~ Natalie Merchant
He also helps to save Ben's career with a easy dump off instead of Ben taking a hit. There has to be extra value on that!
Bell’s market value (which I’d be fine with): $15 million
Bell’s desired value (and only going higher): $17 million
Other teams’ ability to pay Bell (cap room): $19 million
If Bell truly wants the most money, he will NOT sign ANY contract offered by the Steelers, because in a year, he WILL be offered $20 million/season. (This is, IMO, his mental state about the issue.)
Colbert is using the “hot girl/crazy girl” algorithm... and, he’s determined that while Bell is indeed the hottest girl at the party, Bell might also steal Colbert’s kidney in his sleep. Better to pass her off onto your buddy, earning “bro points” with him, while secretly being relieved to be talking to the “9” who is never shuts up (an acceptable level of crazy).
As in:
Colbert is prepared to move on with or without Bell. Bell would be the icing on the cake... a very, very good icing, but icing nonetheless.
Ergo, Colbert won’t let Bell go for “nothing” (R3 pick), but I could definitely see trading Bell for a R2 pick... “if” another team decides to do so. Otherwise, Bell will play out this season, and move on to a team willing to give him $20 million.
It’s not all on him. The play calling was horrendous as well. How many times are you going to run the shotgun draw for a one yard gain, no gain or loss and then turn around and go straight back to it on the next drive with the same result? Also the blocking schemes stayed the same, the defense adjusted, the Steelers offense didn’t.
He deserves some of the criticism, but so,does the rest of the offense and coaching. Again, I’m not purposely being a Bell apologist, but there’s a lot of factors people aren’t considering. It’s easy to criticize the paper numbers or say just replace him with a draft pick, but it’s simply just not that easy.
Exactly. They’ll take him this year, make a run with the most talented team they’ve had in a long time and take it from there...
Also agree, no matter what contract the Steelers offer, Bell isn’t going to sign because he wants to create a bidding war to get the most money for the RB position...not for himself or anything.
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Agreed. People need to stop focusing on one stat. Why the OL or the play calling never seems to get any blame for that 4 ypc is beyond me.
“I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play!” - Jack Lambert
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Yes, I think that you are both correct. This will be Bell's last year with the Steelers. I would have liked to have seen him signed to a multi-year contract but I'm also tired of the whole contract thing and don't want to see that much money tied up in a HB. Start making plans for him being gone next year. Conner isn't the answer so a HB will need to be drafted high either this year or next.
“I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play!” - Jack Lambert
And... Bell is the best blocking RB in the league.
A good portion of “Ben not getting sacked” is due to O-line and Munchak, but Bell has played a sizable part, as well.
Problem is, the 2019 Free Agent RB Projections are garbage...the addition would have to come through a draft pick or a trade. If it's got to come through a draft pick, if theres a guy there this year that they think may eventually replace Bell, I don't have a problem with them taking a shot this year and then doing the same next season.
From this early list, Mark Ingram would be the only one I would even entertain thinking about. Other than that, it's nothing but trash...IMO.
Ultimately, all of this is really a meaningless conversation. Bell has not signed the tag yet. Until he does no trade can happen. Say on draft day the Steelers were able to find a trade partner (sucker) that was willing to part with a high draft pick for Bell. All Bell has to do is not sign the tag and the whole thing falls apart.
For instance, folks like to speculate that the Colts may be cool with giving up some of their war chest of draft picks for a RB of Bell's caliber. Why in the hell would Bell want to go play there? They have no offensive line. No weapons aside from TY Hilton. The QB may or may not have a function throwing shoulder. The defense is a disaster zone. And the front office is essentially incompetent. The owner may be a serious addict. The list just goes on and on.
Apparently Sequon Barkley is football Jesus. So that rules out any team in the top portion of the draft that feel they have a realistic chance at getting Barkley with their pick. Looking at team needs, that is anyone in the top 10. Barkley, while a great prospect, could fall because QBs and pass rushers will get drafted before a RB. So no "blockbuster" prior to the draft. And as above, a draft day trade may not be even possible unless the Steelers can get Bell sitting in a room with pen in hand.
I could keep going - but the easy bottom line here is that a trade is out of the question. There just isn't a realistic scenario in my mind.
The only realistic discussion is whether the Steelers obtain Bell's replacement in this draft or the next. I vote for next as there are more important needs this cycle. Play Bell on the tag and make an honest effort to work Conner in and see what you have. Then go into the 2019 draft cycle planning on either coming away with the main option or a complement to Conner depending on Conner's 2018 performance.
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