What sunk 2017?

[st33lersguy]

The entire defense had a bad day in general against the Jags, all over, everyone involved with the defense was to blame, not just two positions. ILB needs an upgrade, they got one upgrade, but need at least one more. Run-stuffing NT however is becoming more obsolete in this defense and the NFL in general, spending a high round pick on one is not wise and will not solve the entirety of the problems. OLBs disengaging from blocks better and stopping the outside will probably do more to help in the run defense, especially since, as already pointed out, that was the real weakness in the run game

[Mojouw]

I'll try.

Here is 2008 Run Defense stuff from Football Outsiders (using their database because it is the one I am familiar with and have free access to): https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl2008

	Team	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	2nd Level Yards	2nd Level Rank	Open Field Yards	Open Field Rank	Team	Rank	Sacks	Adjusted Sack Rate
1	BAL	3.13	3.33	64%	14	24%	3	0.87	2	0.62	12	DAL	1	59	9.9%
2	CHI	3.27	3.64	64%	11	28%	1	1.03	8	0.84	22	MIN	2	45	9.0%
3	NYG	3.33	3.73	58%	6	24%	5	0.89	3	0.80	20	PIT	3	51	8.7%
4	MIN	3.51	3.46	55%	2	24%	4	1.02	7	0.54	9	PHI	4	48	8.4%
5	PHI	3.62	3.59	61%	9	22%	7	0.99	6	0.55	10	CAR	5	37	7.4%
6	TEN	3.67	3.84	64%	13	24%	2	1.03	9	0.79	18	OAK	6	32	7.3%
7	PIT	3.69	3.41	53%	1	17%	18	0.95	4	0.30	1

In 2008 the defense was really good at stopping backs once they hit the second level and in the open field.
Turning to look at where the rush yards did come from against the 2008 defense (from the site - "These runs are from the perspective of the OFFENSE, so a run listed as LEFT TACKLE is actually at the RIGHT defensive end."):

		LEFT END		LEFT TACKLE		MID/GUARD		RIGHT TACKLE		RIGHT END
	TEAM	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank
1	BAL	3.30	6	3.49	7	3.07	1	2.99	3	3.04	9
2	CHI	1.91	1	3.14	4	3.61	4	4.10	17	2.43	1
3	NYG	3.25	5	3.17	5	3.28	2	3.99	15	3.18	11
4	MIN	3.49	8	3.99	13	3.65	5	3.43	5	2.62	3
5	PHI	3.09	3	2.98	3	4.13	13	4.29	21	2.93	5
6	TEN	3.10	4	2.68	1	3.84	7	3.35	4	5.29	29
7	PIT	4.33	21	4.75	26	3.51	3	3.83	9	2.70	4

Over the defensive right side was the problem area and over the left side and middle was a "no go" area for RBs.

Let's look at the same data sets for 2017. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

	Team	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	2nd Level Yards	2nd Level Rank	Open Field Yards	Open Field Rank	Team	Rank	Sacks	Adjusted Sack Rate
1	PHI	2.99	3.35	55%	6	29%	2	0.88	1	0.83	23	PIT	1	56	9.8%
2	CLE	3.27	3.35	56%	8	30%	1	1.08	11	0.60	8	JAC	2	55	9.1%
3	ARI	3.34	3.35	62%	12	23%	6	0.96	6	0.55	5	CAR	3	50	9.1%
4	DEN	3.37	3.44	45%	1	26%	4	0.90	2	0.60	9	WAS	4	42	8.0%
5	CAR	3.52	3.89	47%	2	26%	3	1.12	18	0.94	27	LARM	5	48	7.9%
6	NYJ	3.77	3.67	70%	24	22%	8	0.93	4	0.66	12	NO	6	42	7.8%
7	BAL	3.85	4.12	62%	14	21%	15	1.10	14	0.87	26	LACH	7	43	7.8%
8	HOU	3.86	3.93	70%	25	22%	7	1.11	17	0.75	17	CHI	8	42	7.6%
9	GB	3.95	3.85	56%	7	20%	21	1.09	12	0.59	7	GB	9	37	7.4%
10	MIA	3.95	4.13	50%	3	24%	5	1.26	27	0.85	25	NE	10	42	7.1%
11	DAL	3.95	4.12	86%	32	22%	12	1.25	25	0.76	20	DEN	11	33	6.9%
12	PIT	3.96	4.47	82%	31	20%	18	1.31	30	1.04	30	TEN	12	43	6.9%

Where the rush yards went against the 2017 team:

		LEFT END		LEFT TACKLE		MID/GUARD		RIGHT TACKLE		RIGHT END
	TEAM	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank
1	PHI	2.44	2	2.82	4	3.04	1	3.24	10	3.28	10
2	CLE	3.05	4	3.14	7	3.49	2	3.04	7	2.07	3
3	ARI	3.72	14	2.61	3	3.81	8	2.76	3	2.38	4
4	DEN	3.19	9	3.30	10	3.54	3	1.90	1	3.92	16
5	CAR	2.77	3	2.36	2	3.93	10	4.15	21	3.31	11
6	NYJ	3.62	13	3.99	16	4.11	15	2.87	5	3.19	8
7	BAL	1.07	1	4.50	25	3.80	6	4.22	23	4.36	21
8	HOU	3.08	6	3.05	5	3.80	7	3.85	18	6.04	32
9	GB	3.42	12	5.02	28	4.62	29	3.41	12	1.53	2
10	MIA	4.85	27	4.69	27	3.61	4	3.23	9	5.88	31
11	DAL	3.12	8	4.01	17	3.99	11	4.73	29	3.90	15
12	PIT	6.27	32	4.25	22	3.82	9	3.28	11	4.02	18

A bit to chew over here. The 2017 defense was not nearly as good at stopping the run as the 2008 team was. But there are some deeper look kinda stuff that can allow us to speculate as to why.

1. The ADJ LINE YARDS column is Football Outsiders attempt to account for the offensive line's portion of the "success" of the running play. So we can see that in terms of "stopping the offensive line" the two defenses are relatively close - roughly 0.3 yards per attempt. That surprised me. Would appear to indicate that the 2017 squad wasn't just getting blown off the LOS each and every rushing play.
2. Both teams "stuffed" % ranking is pretty similar. So they tackled roughly the same amount of RB's behind or at the line of scrimmage. Some is getting penetration and clearing out blockers.
3. The 2017 team was terrible at stopping Power ("Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks."). So that would seem to indicate that the D-Line was getting pushed around quite a bit in short yardage scenarios.
4. The other major difference between the 2008 and 2017 run defenses was in 2nd Level yards and Open Field yards. In both categories we see an excellent tackling team in the 08 squad and a terrible tackling team in the 17 squad.
5. Finally we can see that middle and right tackle runs were roughly the same per carry for each defense. Left tackle was slightly better in 2017. But outside left and outside right were just simply awful. Again, to me, that points to DBs and LBs just not getting RBs on the ground.
I realize these are just tables of stats and are not incorporating sub-packages, player responsibilties, and individual errors/great plays -- but it is something to start with. I think it really paints a picture that while Kiesel/Hampton/Smith is a bit better than Tuitt/Hargrave/Heyward, it isn't enough to argue that is what totally sunk the 2017 run defense. Combine the above with the fact that the defense let up 2.0 yards per play overall after Shazier went down, I feel that the conclusion is fairly obvious - linebacker and DB play (or lack there of) is the main point of failure for the run defense in 2017.

So far in the off-season it would seem the team feels the same way. Bostic and Burnett are going to help with that lack of tackling. It will be interesting to see what comes out of the draft. I would fully support taking someone like PJ Hill, Poona Ford, Kendrick Norton, Frazier, or Foley Fatukasi. I think at least one of those players would be available with the 5th or 7th round picks and represent a better value infusion of talent for the DL rotation than taking someone like Settle in the top 3 rounds. All that being said -- Vea is sitting there at 1.28 or something -- just take him and figure the rest out later...

...I suspect that all these tables and #'s won't cahnge many minds because the Bears and Jags games along with the second Ravens game are just so damning in all of our memories.