Draft Approach

[Mojouw]

Ok. So kinda odd question, but here goes.

Assume all other things are equal about a prospect except the following:

1. Prospect A is a "polished" player and ready to step in and contribute from Day One of OTAs. Graded as a 1st or 2nd Round prospect. Guy is almost a lock to play for the better part of decade and play at a high level.
2. Prospect B is a "raw" player and far from a finished product as a football player. His athleticism is sky-high. Just off the charts. No limit to his potential but it remains unclear how good they are at actually playing football. Grades all over the map in the first 3 rounds. If the guy reaches his potential, he is one of those guys you tell people you got to see play when you are old. If he misses, he is out of the league after his rookie contract.

Now assume the two players both play the same position and it is one of need for the NFL team that you have magically been put in charge of. It is your turn to draft in the late first/early 2nd round. Who do you take?

Me, I swing from my heels and take Prospect B and hope like hell my coaching staff can get them squared away.

[Born2Steel]

Late first/early second round, I'm totally BPA. I take player A and know that I improved my team. To my way of thinking, player A CAN still improve and grow as a player. If he is already plug and play ready day one, that means probable all-pro tomorrow.

[pczach]

Ok. So kinda odd question, but here goes.

Assume all other things are equal about a prospect except the following:

1. Prospect A is a "polished" player and ready to step in and contribute from Day One of OTAs. Graded as a 1st or 2nd Round prospect. Guy is almost a lock to play for the better part of decade and play at a high level.
2. Prospect B is a "raw" player and far from a finished product as a football player. His athleticism is sky-high. Just off the charts. No limit to his potential but it remains unclear how good they are at actually playing football. Grades all over the map in the first 3 rounds. If the guy reaches his potential, he is one of those guys you tell people you got to see play when you are old. If he misses, he is out of the league after his rookie contract.

Now assume the two players both play the same position and it is one of need for the NFL team that you have magically been put in charge of. It is your turn to draft in the late first/early 2nd round. Who do you take?

Me, I swing from my heels and take Prospect B and hope like hell my coaching staff can get them squared away.

That sounds a little bit like the conversation about CJ Mosley and Ryan Shazier. Although, to be fair, Shazier was already a very good player.

Mosley was the safe pick. A player you knew would play well and play well early. He was the guy you just plug in and he's a very good player for a decade.

Shazier was the more athletic, raw talent that was an off the charts freak athlete that many thought was a bit light for the NFL to be taken that high.

[SteelerFanInStl]

I take player A and don't look back. With the current team, we need someone who can step in right now and make a difference.

[steelreserve]

"Incredible raw talent, needs time to develop his game to succeed at the pro level."

Fuck drafting any more of those players. We're not good at identifying the right ones or coaching them up. At least on defense, which is where I'd expect a lot of this draft to be focused.

Who's good for us on defense right now? Tuitt, Heyward, Watt, and Shazier before his injury. All players who had a knack for the game and you knew they were probably going to be good no matter what.

Also, given our current situation (franchise QB around for 3 more years or so), we are better off with guys who will be solid players for us NOW, not guys who might help us 3 years from now, or might not help us at all.

We just need to hit singles right now, not swing for the fences and strike out (again). If we were an 8-8 team looking to realistically compete for a championship 2-3 years in the future, then maybe it'd be different but ... that's not where we are right now.

It's also worth mentioning that it's not just the ones in the "Prospect B" category who have the potential to be all-world, generational players. Plenty of those are "safe" Prospect A type picks who then become amazing players in their own right. They're no less likely to become stars or superstars than the "incredible raw talent" guys.

You ask me, "incredible raw talent" is a trap. Everybody's got incredible talent if they're projected in rounds 1-2. They've all got a similar chance to become a superstar. So just leave out the "raw" and you're doing great.

[st33lersguy]

Prospect A, especially with the porous coaching on the defense. There's a chance they'll be more successful with less polished DBs with Bradley upgrading LAke, but with the LB coaches still here definitely the polished player

[Shoes]

Player A, enough of this player laboratory time, as Born2Steel said, player A can still improve and grow. Also, I think you have less locker room and off field issues with the A type player.

[Born2Steel]

This is why I really liked Matakevich. In college he was always in on the tackle. I watched him play and I thought he would be a star in the pros. When he fell, I thought it was because he was from a group of 5 conference team and didn't have his success against "better competition". Now, seeing him in the league and at 'real' speed, I understand a bit more. He can still be a productive tackler, he's just never going to be a star because he's just too slow to make those tackles behind, or even at the LOS. I would still take a guy like Matakevich over a player that just dominated on pure athletic ability. The reason is, the Matakevich type player was probably always a step behind physically but studied the game and learned to adapt his play to be more successful. This is something that he can continue to do even at the pro level. The freak athlete probably never had to work very hard to be great, and therefore will be less likely to know how, or maybe even want to, do the things necessary to be a better player. Guys like TP43 had the physical tools AND the willingness to put in the work.

[Born2Steel]

Just read a mock draft article that has the Browns trading their 1st and 4th overall picks to the Colts for Andrew Luck. Giving the Colts the 1st, 3rd, and 4th overall picks in this year's draft. Even with the complete absurdity of it, what made it interesting is that it IS the Browns and Colts after all. And then there's the actual mock itself. The Browns trade away 2 top 5 picks for a damaged throwing shoulder QB. Then the Colts use their 3 top 5 picks to select Sam Darnold, Bradley Chubb, and Saquon Barkley.

Just in case you wanted it...
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2...op-five-picks/

[SteelerFanInStl]

Just read a mock draft article that has the Browns trading their 1st and 4th overall picks to the Colts for Andrew Luck. Giving the Colts the 1st, 3rd, and 4th overall picks in this year's draft. Even with the complete absurdity of it, what made it interesting is that it IS the Browns and Colts after all. And then there's the actual mock itself. The Browns trade away 2 top 5 picks for a damaged throwing shoulder QB. Then the Colts use their 3 top 5 picks to select Sam Darnold, Bradley Chubb, and Saquon Barkley.

Just in case you wanted it...
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2...op-five-picks/

I saw a link to that story but didn't even bother to click it because the premise is so absurd. I don't think that even the Browns could ever be that stupid.

[Born2Steel]

I saw a link to that story but didn't even bother to click it because the premise is so absurd. I don't think that even the Browns could ever be that stupid.

It's freaking hilarious. Seriously, ONLY the Browns and Colts could be the teams in this scenario. The Browns don't even get the Colt's original 1st round pick in this mock, just the player.