The Le'Veon Bell-Steelers showdown, Part II: What you need to know

[Shoes]

PITTSBURGH -- Le'Veon Bell says he and the Pittsburgh Steelers are closer in negotiations than they were a year ago. It's time to find out just how close.
The franchise tag window is here, and if the Steelers use the tag as expected, Bell and the team have the next five months to work out a contract.
Here's what you need to know about what's next:
http://www.espn.com/blog/pittsburgh-...u-need-to-know

[pczach]

That pretty much sums up the situation.

Both sides just need to be reasonable to get this done and move on. He's so good, and the team is so close to getting over the top that it just seems to make sense for both sides to get a deal done.

If Bell plays hardball with unreasonable demands, I think the team will just tag him and are prepared to let him go after next season. This would allow them to concentrate on defense in this years draft and free agency, and clear the way to make a move to get a new feature back in the draft in 2019. I believe that's what they are thinking is the best path to winning now and in the future if Bell can't be signed.

[DesertSteel]

What are the implications of an unsigned tag throughout the entire offseason as it relates to the cap/free agency and re-signing our own guys? I don't believe he'd retire but I could see him sitting out a few regular season games.

[steelreserve]

What are the implications of an unsigned tag throughout the entire offseason as it relates to the cap/free agency and re-signing our own guys? I don't believe he'd retire but I could see him sitting out a few regular season games.

I think it counts against the salary cap unless you revoke it. Or at least you have to have the cap space available since the player could sign it at any time.

If he actually sits out any real games, he's an idiot, since his goal is getting paid and that is actually going to hurt his ability to do that. Other teams might overlook skipping the preseason, but regular-season games are another thing. Not to mention you are going to be worth more if you lead the league in rushing than if you have like 800 yards because you threw a fit. And also your goal is to get paid, but you're giving up a million dollars a game just because you're mad. And also you're rapping about getting paid 15, and here's a season where you're actually getting it, but you sit out. So I doubt it comes to that.

[DesertSteel]

I think it counts against the salary cap unless you revoke it. Or at least you have to have the cap space available since the player could sign it at any time.

If he actually sits out any real games, he's an idiot, since his goal is getting paid and that is actually going to hurt his ability to do that. Other teams might overlook skipping the preseason, but regular-season games are another thing. Not to mention you are going to be worth more if you lead the league in rushing than if you have like 800 yards because you threw a fit. And also your goal is to get paid, but you're giving up a million dollars a game just because you're mad. And also you're rapping about getting paid 15, and here's a season where you're actually getting it, but you sit out. So I doubt it comes to that.

He's not very bright.

[steelreserve]

He's not very bright.

True, this is something that's been working against us in one way or another every offseason with him.

[Mojouw]

Aaron Donald sat regular season games and every single team in the NFL would pay him whatever the hell he wanted if he hit the open market.

NFL teams say a ton of nonsense, but in the end if you are talented nothing else matters.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Gerry Dulac's Steelers chat transcript: 2.23.18

GERRY DULAC
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

pdxJaxon: Hey Gerry,
Im on board with letting Bell go. Not worth the Money (Not even close). However,..the problem is, if he leaves, we now have another HUGE Hole to plug....what would the strategy be to cover ILB, S, and RB if we let him go....?

Gerry Dulac: You're right about that. Look, I'm not advocating getting rid of Bell. I just don't know if its worth committing that much money -- and it' s a lot -- to a RB on a pass-oriented team who averages 3.9 yards per carry behind arguably the best O-line in the league who already has two suspensions on his resume and raps about wanting to be a rapper.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201802230159

[DesertSteel]

Aaron Donald sat regular season games and every single team in the NFL would pay him whatever the hell he wanted if he hit the open market.

NFL teams say a ton of nonsense, but in the end if you are talented nothing else matters.

Bell does not come close in value to an Aaron Donald, IMO. Donald is going to get Quarterback money.

[Craic]

Gerry Dulac's Steelers chat transcript: 2.23.18

GERRY DULAC


Gerry Dulac: You're right about that. Look, I'm not advocating getting rid of Bell. I just don't know if its worth committing that much money -- and it' s a lot -- to a RB on a pass-oriented team who averages 3.9 yards per carry behind arguably the best O-line in the league who already has two suspensions on his resume and raps about wanting to be a rapper.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201802230159

Several problems with this statement. First, after Brown, Bell is our top receiver with 85 receptions and our third best receiver in yards gained (JuJu is second). So discussing Bell as purely a RB is pretty shortsighted on Dulac's part. Second. This o-line was not the best o-line in the league. They were barely in the top third of the league this year. They ranked something like 9th or 10th in allowing defensive players within 1 yard of the RB behind the LOS (I have a post linking that stat somewhere on here). However, the Steelers are also tied for 3rd best in runs stuffed with only 17 percent stuffed behind LOS. Take those last two stats together, and what you get is a RB that turned a lot of negative yards into 1 or 2 positive yards. That does NOT show up on any normal stat line. Third, calling the Steelers a pass-oriented team, while technically correct, is pretty misleading as well. We are not the Patriots* or the Manning-led Colts. There are stretches every season where this team becomes a run-first offense because of one reason or another.

So, no. Dulac is pretty much out to lunch here, IMO.

[fansince'76]

Take those last two stats together, and what you get is a RB that turned a lot of negative yards into 1 or 2 positive yards.

Toss sweep on 4th-and-1 for a 4-yard loss, anyone?

[DesertSteel]

Several problems with this statement. First, after Brown, Bell is our top receiver with 85 receptions and our third best receiver in yards gained (JuJu is second). So discussing Bell as purely a RB is pretty shortsighted on Dulac's part. Second. This o-line was not the best o-line in the league. They were barely in the top third of the league this year. They ranked something like 9th or 10th in allowing defensive players within 1 yard of the RB behind the LOS (I have a post linking that stat somewhere on here). However, the Steelers are also tied for 3rd best in runs stuffed with only 17 percent stuffed behind LOS. Take those last two stats together, and what you get is a RB that turned a lot of negative yards into 1 or 2 positive yards. That does NOT show up on any normal stat line. Third, calling the Steelers a pass-oriented team, while technically correct, is pretty misleading as well. We are not the Patriots* or the Manning-led Colts. There are stretches every season where this team becomes a run-first offense because of one reason or another.

So, no. Dulac is pretty much out to lunch here, IMO.

That stat is completely on Bell's style.

[teegre]

Bell’s contract situation walks into a bar. Half of the bar immediately hates the other half’s opinion on the matter; the other half follows suit. Facts hide in in the corner.

[AtlantaDan]

FWIW Spotrac, which does a good job of tracking player contracts and team cap situations, has a new feature calculating the market value of players.

This is what it comes up with for Bell

The first step in evaluating is to identify players of the same position, with similar playing time/opportunity, who signed a contract around Bell's current age.
After adjusting the above contracts to match Bell's current age, we're provided with the following initial value.
Now we'll compare our variables and Bell statistically over the two seasons prior to their signing.
After applying our Prime % figures into our base calculated value, we're given two values. The average of these values becomes our current calculated market value.

5 years, $53,840,716
Average salary 10,768,143

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburg.../market-value/

[DesertSteel]

FWIW Spotrac, which does a good job of tracking player contracts and team cap situations, has a new feature calculating the market value of players.

This is what it comes up with for Bell

The first step in evaluating is to identify players of the same position, with similar playing time/opportunity, who signed a contract around Bell's current age.
After adjusting the above contracts to match Bell's current age, we're provided with the following initial value.
Now we'll compare our variables and Bell statistically over the two seasons prior to their signing.
After applying our Prime % figures into our base calculated value, we're given two values. The average of these values becomes our current calculated market value.

5 years, $53,840,716
Average salary 10,768,143

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburg.../market-value/

That number sounds spot on to me.

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe he can get the other $3-4M added on due to his rapping skills...

$7M RB
$4M WR
$3M R

[Craic]

That stat is completely on Bell's style.

Not at all. A defensive player being within one yard of a running back behind the LOS means the offensive lineman has been pushed into the backfield. That's on the O line. And then, like FS said. Remember all the sweeps and other plays being ran. Yeah, that's not Bell.

[Craic]

FWIW Spotrac, which does a good job of tracking player contracts and team cap situations, has a new feature calculating the market value of players.

This is what it comes up with for Bell

The first step in evaluating is to identify players of the same position, with similar playing time/opportunity, who signed a contract around Bell's current age.
After adjusting the above contracts to match Bell's current age, we're provided with the following initial value.
Now we'll compare our variables and Bell statistically over the two seasons prior to their signing.
After applying our Prime % figures into our base calculated value, we're given two values. The average of these values becomes our current calculated market value.

5 years, $53,840,716
Average salary 10,768,143

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburg.../market-value/

I couldn't find where they added in market inflation over the last few years. So, how to calculate that? If we average the cap for the years represented by the players in that assessment, we get $146,537,500. Assuming a $178,000,000 cap for 2018, that's a 21.5 percent increase for 2018 over the average. So, that'd equal $65,400,648 in today's money for Bell, and an average salary of $13,080,130.

[Iron Steeler]

How does the franchise tag work?

In regard to another team wanting to acquire him under the tag.

[BlackAndGold]

[tube517]

How does the franchise tag work?

In regard to another team wanting to acquire him under the tag.

https://www.sbnation.com/2018/2/19/1...ee-agency-2018

[DesertSteel]

Not at all. A defensive player being within one yard of a running back behind the LOS means the offensive lineman has been pushed into the backfield. That's on the O line. And then, like FS said. Remember all the sweeps and other plays being ran. Yeah, that's not Bell.

Just saw this. I don’t think I agree. If Bell is in the backfield for 3 seconds that has an impact. Other backs are hitting the hole much faster, thus less time for the D to penetrate.

Bell’s style is like Ben holding the ball. You live with both the good and the bad.

[AtlantaDan]

Well he will sign a franchise tag - I am confident about that as well

I assume those individuals also were confident about beating Jacksonville in the playoffs

The opposing side had something to say about that as well

The Steelers thought they had a deal with Bell's agent last summer and Bell blew it up - having been burned before being confident a deal can get done seems overly optimistic

Since IMO Bell is worth less now than he was in 2017 (another year of wear and tear) if the Steelers were not lowballing Bell last summer it makes no sense to raise their offer on a multi year deal unless it is the same or less real $$$ and the Steelers are hoping Bell does not figure that out

[SteelMember]

Well he will sign a franchise tag - I am confident about that as well.

With the deadline lingering, they will offer him the tag unless there is some breakthrough today.
Whether he signs it or not, so the negotiation process can continue, remains to be seen. He could sulk all summer... again.

[DesertSteel]

Well he will sign a franchise tag - I am confident about that as well

Yes... 2 days before the first game.

[steel striker]

Well we know what that means Bell will hold out or sign after kickoff.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Paul Zeise: With Le'Veon Bell, the Steelers need to hold their ground

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
MAR 5, 2018

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/z...s/201803050092

[SteelMember]

"Last year, the franchise tag paid Bell $12.12 million for a one-year deal. Using it again would mean he’d get 120 percent of his 2017 salary, so Bell would get $14.544 million in 2018."

I'm sure he'll feel disrespected with that...

[DesertSteel]

"Last year, the franchise tag paid Bell $12.12 million for a one-year deal. Using it again would mean he’d get 120 percent of his 2017 salary, so Bell would get $14.544 million in 2018."

I'm sure he'll feel disrespected with that...

I'm sure that he can make twice that much next year with his burgeoning rap career.

[AtlantaDan]

Apparently no last minute expectation of a deal

The Steelers have informed Le'Veon Bell that he will be franchise tagged for the second consecutive year absent an unlikely deal before Tuesday's deadline, Bell told ESPN....

"We're not coming to a number we both agree on -- they are too low, or I guess they feel I'm too high," Bell said. "I'm playing for strictly my value to the team, that's what I'm asking. I don't think I should settle for anything less than what I'm valued at."

Bell, 26, said he's not bluffing when he told ESPN in January he'll contemplate retirement with a second tag. At the least, he will skip training camp for a second consecutive year if no deal is reached by mid-July.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22657079/leveon-bell-pittsburgh-steelers-gets-franchise-tag-again

In other words, I am not signing for less than what I believe is my market value. Hard to negotiate when one side decides setting the value of the contract is only their call.

Steelers have until March 14 to fit the cost of tagging Bell under the cap. No Bell deal probably means no meaningful free agency signings.

This from Ed. B. of the P-G

That $14.544 million all would count against their salary cap this year, and at the moment, they have slightly less than $6 million of room, according to Over The Cap. They do not have to be under the cap until free agency starts at 4 p.m. March 14, so they could put the tag on Bell and create the room over the next week by a combination of cutting some veterans and restructuring contracts....

Putting all that cap room in the franchise tag will reduce their ability to sign free agents to, for example, shore up their defense. A multi-year deal would enable the Steelers to reduce that cap number by half at least while still putting more money in Bell’s pocket.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201803050087

[Mojouw]

If all that is true, why not hit him with the tag? Why wait?

Also, where are the associated moves that clear the cap space needed for either a long-term deal or the tag?

Finally, depending on how much they want to cut from the roster (Mitchell, Wilcox, DHB, William Gay) and/or restructure (Ben R? Pouncey?) the team can clear tens of million of dollars in cap space.

My take - a flurry of moves gets announced in the next 12 hours or so.

Bell gets tagged.
Mitchell, DHB, and William Gay get the axe. Hopefully Golden as well.
Wilcox re-works his deal and sticks around. Steelers "bare bones" plan is that Wilcox plays SS and Davis plays FS.
A large offer to some free agent LB gets put out there. We may never hear about it.
Depending on LB response, a decent offer goes out to a DB. We may also never hear about this.